This article investigates geosocial patterns of marriage strategies among the leadership of Hasidism, arguably the most prominent socio-religious movement of modern Jewry, known for its unique network of charismatic leaders organized in hereditary dynasties. The article’s core premise is that grasping the network structure of the Hasidic movement’s dynasties, which has been under-researched, is crucial to understanding the movement’s social and cultural dynamics. The study employs social network analysis (SNA) and spatial analysis to examine marital unions among these leaders (2,375 cases), from the early stages of the movement in the eighteenth century until the early twenty-first century. The article explains, for the first time, how Hasidic dynasties expanded, eroded, and negotiated their status within the network of other dynasties. More specifically, we analyze the position of the dynasties within a wider context of social and spatial interconnection patterns, the significance of endogamy, the impact of territorial factors on marriage preferences, and the creation of dynastic clusters. A significant conclusion of this article is that, rather than a set of unrelated dynasties, Hasidic leadership gradually became a web of interconnected families with explicable patterns of organization. These findings can help explain historical processes in Hasidism, such as its persistence through historical crises. It can also illuminate leadership processes in other religions in which, as in Hasidism, the social structure of charismatic leadership is based on clans.

The real-fluid effect induced by large density variation at supercritical pressure (SCP) modulates the turbulent dynamics and heat transfer, and poses challenges to existing turbulence models that are based on ideal-gas conditions. This study conducts direct numerical simulations of fully developed channel flows at SCP, with the upper and lower channel walls being isothermally heated and cooled, respectively. Emphasis is placed on examining the effects of various levels of density variations on near-wall turbulence as well as turbulent heat transfer by changing wall temperatures. The results show that the density fluctuation significantly impacts both first-order and second-order turbulence statistics near the heated wall owing to the close vicinity of pseudo-boiling point. Such real-fluid impact increases substantially with increasing density ratio, and tends to weaken the turbulent kinetic energy by damping turbulence production, while simultaneously inducing an additional turbulent mass flux that partially offsets this reduction. Detailed quadrant analysis reveals that the ‘ejection’ events dominate diverse effects of density fluctuation on Reynolds shear stresses, with density fluctuation contributing positively on the cooled wall side, and negatively on the heated wall side. Regarding the turbulent heat transfer, density fluctuation enhances the enthalpy–pressure–gradient correlation, tending to weaken the turbulent heat flux, which is slightly compensated by additional terms induced by density fluctuations. The overall negative contribution of density fluctuation to turbulent heat flux stems primarily from ‘hot ejection’ motions. Instantaneous flow characteristics provide additional support for these findings. Additionally, the mechanisms by which density fluctuations affect Reynolds shear stress and turbulent heat flux could also be extended to the skin friction coefficient and Nusselt number, respectively.

Bargaining scholars predict rapid power shifts cause preventive war. But cases with rapidly shifting power often remain peaceful. To explain the dogs that don’t bark, we introduce instant, repeated, costly militarization into Powell’s (1999) conventional-weapons power transition model. First, we rationalize preventive war during long, slow, complete-information power shifts. Second, we find that where past research into conventional shifts predicts war, a grand bargain backed by the decliner’s threat of war emerges as a second equilibrium. Because war and a grand bargain both prevent power from shifting, declining powers deploy them under the same conditions. Our grand bargain survives war-causing hazards, and some latent shifts. It occurs after incremental militarization causes repeated appeasement-like concessions, and when power shifts are instant, slow or fast, and perfectly observed; suggesting conventional shifts induce grand bargains under surprising conditions. The Great Game’s end fits our grand bargain, but that British elites seriously considered war.

Relationships between broiler cut prices are evolving as production and consumer preferences change. Stronger price relationships are observed within white and dark meats categories than between them. This can be attributed to the unique substitutability of cuts within categories, while weaker relationships between categories arising from their roles, white meats are predominantly consumed domestically, while dark meats are more oriented towards export. The analysis also shows that own price is the main driver of price variation, suggesting that treating chicken as a single category may be misleading. Considering different cuts may offer valuable insights into economic/market analysis for other meats.

In recent years, the number of migrant deaths and disappearances in the Mediterranean and on the Atlantic coasts has risen steadily. The arrival of small boats with migrants on board on the Spanish and Italian coasts has received a lot of media attention, and European Governments are investing more than in the past to stop unauthorized arrivals on their shores. Certain narratives from governments and officials of international organizations attribute these deaths to “smugglers” and the dangerous routes they take. However, this article provides evidence that the higher mortality rates are the result of changes in border controls following bilateral agreements between the European Union and Morocco after 2018. By analyzing data from official statistics, microdata, and data provided by NGOs up to 2024, it shows how the increase in the mortality rate of migrants in the Western Mediterranean is the result of changes in the management of sea rescues, the militarization and externalization of the border, and the way in which migrants attempting to cross the sea are taking more dangerous routes than in the past.

Why do some autocrats establish a ruling party, whereas others do not? The existing literature argues that weak leaders facing a commitment problem have an incentive to create highly institutionalised parties in order to stabilise their ruling coalition. However, empirical research points out that stronger leaders also create ruling parties, which tend to lack institutional strength and be short-lived.

Through a simple formal model and a case study, this paper explains strong leaders’ motivation to create less-institutionalised, short-lived parties. My model introduces two variables to classical leader-elite bargaining model. (1) indivisible benefit from incumbency, which the leaders can exclusively consume and cannot share with ruling elites. This makes the bargaining more difficult while it also increases the leaders’ merit to maintain his post. Thus, the leaders found ruling parties to temporarily deter the elites’ defection, even if the leaders are sure that their ruling coalition will inevitably collapse in the near future. (2) loser’s share, which the elites consume even after the failed rebellion. Many existing models assume that losers in rebellions lose everything, but some leaders lack the willingness or capability to punish defectors. The low loser’s share decreases the elites’ future share, which encourages weak elites to rebel before their bargaining power furthermore goes down. Thus, even strong leaders can face the commitment problem. Through the case study of Georgia, this paper also shows that even less-institutionalised ruling parties can prevent elites from rebelling by empowering potential defectors.

This study was designed to explore the mediating role of serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH) D) in triglyceride glucose (TyG) index and hypertension (HTN). Study participants were selected from the 2001-2018 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Firstly, we estimated the association between TyG index, and serum 25(OH)D with HTN using weighted multivariable logistic regression model and restricted cubic spline. Secondly, we used generalized additive model to investigate the correlation between TyG index and serum 25(OH)D. Lastly, serum 25(OH)D was investigated as a mediator in the association between TyG index and HTN. There were 14,099 subjects in total. TyG index was positively and linearly associated with HTN risk, while serum 25(OH)D had a U-shaped relationship with prevalence of HTN. When the serum 25(OH)D levels were lower than 57.464 mmol/L, prevalence of HTN decreased with the increase of serum 25(OH)D levels. When serum 25(OH)D levels rise above 57.464 mmol/L, risk of HTN increased rapidly. Based on the U-shaped curve, serum 25(OH)D concentrations were divided into two groups: (<57.464 and ≥57.464 mmol/L). According to the mediation analysis, when serum 25(OH)D levels <57.464 mmol/L, the positive association between TyG index and incident HTN was increased by 25(OH)D. When serum 25(OH)D levels ≥57.464 mmol/L, the negative association between TyG index and incident HTN was increased by 25(OH)D. There was a mediation effect between TyG index and HTN, which was mediated by 25(OH)D. Therefore, we found that the association between serum 25(OH)D levels and TyG index may influence prevalence of HTN.

Active fluids encompass a wide range of non-equilibrium fluids, in which the self-propulsion or rotation of their units can give rise to large-scale spontaneous flows. Despite the diversity of active fluids, they are commonly viscoelastic. Therefore, we develop a hydrodynamic model of isotropic active liquids by accounting for their viscoelasticity. Specifically, we incorporate an active stress term into a general viscoelastic liquid model to study the spontaneous flow states and their transitions in two-dimensional channel, annulus and disk geometries. We have discovered rich spontaneous flow states in a channel as a function of activity and Weissenberg number, including unidirectional flow, travelling-wave and vortex-roll states. The Weissenberg number acts against activity by suppressing the spontaneous flow. In an annulus confinement, we find that a net flow can be generated only if the aspect ratio of the annulus is not too large nor too small, akin to some three-dimensional active-flow phenomena. In a disk geometry, we observe a periodic chirality switching of a single vortex flow, resembling the bacteria-based active fluid experiments. The two phenomena reproduced in our model differ in Weissenberg number and frictional coefficient. As such, our active viscoelastic model offers a unified framework to elucidate diverse active liquids, uncover their connections and highlight the universality of dynamic active-flow patterns.

In the United States, New Delhi metallo-beta-lactamase (NDM)-producing carbapenem-resistant Enterobacterales (CRE) are frequently associated with healthcare encounters. From September 2021 to September 2022, 21 patients with NDM-CRE identified from urine and without healthcare exposure were reported to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Isolates were genetically similar to healthcare-associated strains.

This paper expresses extensive agreement with Michael Bergmann’s position in Radical Skepticism and Epistemic Intuition, but (i) offers a simpler response to the skeptic, (ii) takes issue with Bergmann’s strong claim that an “evil demon” hypothesis is as good an explanation of our sensory experiences as is the natural realist explanation, and (iii) corrects a misunderstanding about explanationists’ canons of theory preference.

This paper is concerned with the growth rate of susceptible–infectious–recovered epidemics with general infectious period distribution on random intersection graphs. This type of graph is characterised by the presence of cliques (fully connected subgraphs). We study epidemics on random intersection graphs with a mixed Poisson degree distribution and show that in the limit of large population sizes the number of infected individuals grows exponentially during the early phase of the epidemic, as is generally the case for epidemics on asymptotically unclustered networks. The Malthusian parameter is shown to satisfy a variant of the classical Euler–Lotka equation. To obtain these results we construct a coupling of the epidemic process and a continuous-time multitype branching process, where the type of an individual is (essentially) given by the length of its infectious period. Asymptotic results are then obtained via an embedded single-type Crump–Mode–Jagers branching process.

The 2018/2019 trade conflict between the United States and China impacted a broad array of agricultural products, including soybeans. Previous trade studies using gravity models fail to account for trends and complex seasonal patterns observed in the data. This study uses a machine learning (ML) approach to estimate losses in soybean export value and volume from the trade war. We find that models using ML techniques outperform traditional models and estimate losses in the value of soybean exports of $10.16 billion/year. The ML models fit the complex export trade data series well, highlighting the importance of utilizing improved modeling approaches.

Research over the past three decades has transformed our understanding of western Europe in the years between the late ninth and early eleventh centuries. It was in this period that recognisable kingdoms of France, Germany and (to an extent) Italy were born; it was also in this period that many of the dynasties that would shape the future of the European mainland were established. Above all, it was in these years that the Carolingian dynasty which had ruled much of western Europe since the mid-eighth century was decisively eclipsed. This article uses the charters issued by rulers of these regions as a window into the processes whereby new dynasties and kingdoms established themselves on the basis of existing traditions. In doing so, it draws attention to a remarkable set of shared changes in the layout and appearance of these documents, which reveal much about the nature and significance of these transitions.