The influenza virus continues to pose a significant threat to public health throughout the world. Current avian influenza outbreaks in humans have heightened the need for improved surveillance and planning. Despite recent advances in the development of vaccines and antiviral drugs, seasonal epidemics of influenza continue to contribute significantly to general practitioner workloads, emergency hospital admissions, and deaths. In this paper we review data produced by the Royal College of General Practitioners Weekly Returns Service, a sentinel general practice surveillance network that has been in operation for over 40 years in England and Wales. We show a gradually decreasing trend in the incidence of respiratory illness associated with influenza virus infection (influenza-like illness; ILI) over the 40 years and speculate that there are limits to how far an existing virus can drift and yet produce substantial new epidemics. The burden of disease caused by influenza presented to general practitioners varies considerably by age in each winter. In the pandemic winter of 1969/70 persons of working age were most severely affected; in the serious influenza epidemic of 1989/90 children were particularly affected; in the millennium winter (in which the NHS was severely stretched) ILI was almost confined to adults, especially the elderly. Serious confounders from infections due to respiratory syncytial virus are discussed, especially in relation to assessing influenza vaccine effectiveness. Increasing pressure on hospitals during epidemic periods are shown and are attributed to changing patterns of health-care delivery.

In 18 weeks, Health Protection Scotland (HPS) deployed a syndromic surveillance system to early-detect natural or intentional disease outbreaks during the G8 Summit 2005 at Gleneagles, Scotland. The system integrated clinical and non-clinical datasets. Clinical datasets included Accident & Emergency (A&E) syndromes, and General Practice (GPs) codes grouped into syndromes. Non-clinical data included telephone calls to a nurse helpline, laboratory test orders, and hotel staff absenteeism. A cumulative sum-based detection algorithm and a log-linear regression model identified signals in the data. The system had a fax-based track for real-time identification of unusual presentations. Ninety-five signals were triggered by the detection algorithms and four forms were faxed to HPS. Thirteen signals were investigated. The system successfully complemented a traditional surveillance system in identifying a small cluster of gastroenteritis among the police force and triggered interventions to prevent further cases.

National studies determining the burden of gastroenteritis have defined gastroenteritis by its clinical picture, using symptoms to classify cases and non-cases. The use of different case definitions has complicated inter-country comparisons. We selected four case definitions from the literature, applied these to population data from Australia, Canada, Ireland, Malta and the United States, and evaluated how the epidemiology of illness varied. Based on the results, we developed a standard case definition. The choice of case definition impacted on the observed incidence of gastroenteritis, with a 1·5–2·1 times difference between definitions in a given country. The proportion of cases with bloody diarrhoea, fever, and the proportion who sought medical care and submitted a stool sample also varied. The mean age of cases varied by <5 years under the four definitions. To ensure comparability of results between studies, we recommend a standard symptom-based case definition, and minimum set of results to be reported.

Although most foodborne infections are undiagnosed, the incidence of these infections is usually calculated from reported cases. We present a novel population-based method to estimate the incidence of non-typhoid Salmonella infections. From 154 patients with confirmed Salmonella serotype Enteritidis infection, we determined the kinetics of the antibody response. The estimated mean responses for the three classes of serum antibodies were combined such that the time from infection could be estimated from antibody measurements. Next, serum samples collected in 1983, 1986, 1992, and 1999 from the general population were analysed for antibodies. We demonstrated how these measurements can be translated into an estimate of the general incidence. Based on serology markers there were 13 exposures leading to seroresponse of Salmonella Enteritidis/1000 person-years in 1983; the similar number in 1999 was 217. This trend confirms the increase in the number of culture-confirmed cases reported to the national surveillance system.

We conducted a case-control study examining risk factors for ciprofloxacin resistance in Campylobacter infections that were reported in 2004 and 2005 in two health regions in southern Alberta. The study questionnaire included questions about recent travel and antibiotic use, food consumption frequency, use of household and personal hygiene products with antibacterial agents, contact with animals, and potential misuse of antibiotics. Of the 210 patients who participated, 31·0% had ciprofloxacin-resistant Campylobacter infections. Foreign travel was the strongest predictor of resistance. Surprisingly, possession of antibiotics for future use was identified as a risk factor for resistance. We also examined the potential for participation bias and resistance misclassification to affect the resulting multivariable models. Participation bias appears to have had a substantial effect on the model results, but the estimated misclassification effect due to the use of different ciprofloxacin susceptibility testing methods was only slight.

Hospital-level predictors of high rates of ‘Clostridium difficile-associated disease’ (CDAD) were evaluated in over 2300 hospitals across California, Arizona, and Minnesota. American Hospital Association data were used to determine hospital characteristics associated with high rates of CDAD. Significant correlations were found between hospital rates of CDAD, common infections and other identified pathogens. Hospitals in urban areas had higher average rates of CDAD; yet, irrespective of geographic location, hospital rates of CDAD were associated with other infections. In addition, hospitals with ‘high CDAD’ rates had slower turnover of beds and were more likely to offer transplant services. These results reveal large differences in rates of CDAD across regions. Hospitals with high rates of CDAD have high rates of other common infections, suggesting a need for broad infection control policies.

During 2003, a cluster of initially unexplained pneumonia cases (two fatal) occurred in patients aged <50 years in a British city. Routine culture tests were inconclusive, however, pneumococcal infection was suspected and the putative outbreak was investigated using non-culture methods. Clinical samples from ten patients were tested by pneumococcal polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and multi-locus sequence typing (MLST), or Binax NOW® pneumococcal urine antigen test and serotype-specific enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Lung samples from the deceased patients were PCR positive and yielded different MLST types. Two patients in one family group were serotype 1 pneumococcal antigen positive. Two further patients were serotype 1 antigen positive, and one serotype 4 positive. Two antigen-positive cases were also serum PCR positive. Non-culture methods confirmed the disease aetiology in six cases. Serotype and MLST results showed no single outbreak, but a family cluster of cases in a high background of pneumococcal pneumonia, providing important epidemiological data that would not otherwise have been available.

Antimicrobial resistance of pneumococci is influenced by serotypes, antimicrobial consumption and vaccine use. Serotyping of 697 out of 1331 pneumococcal isolates, recovered in Portugal from 1994 to 2004, showed that the theoretical rate of heptavalent conjugate vaccine coverage was 91·7% and 63·6% for penicillin and erythromycin non-susceptible strains, respectively, in children up to 1 year old. The use of amoxicillin and erythromycin decreased in the vaccine period 2001–2004 (P=0·04 and P<0·01, respectively) but azithromycin usage increased in the same period (P<0·01). By using linear regression models, we evaluated the role of antimicrobial and vaccine use in the trends of resistance to penicillin and erythromycin among the isolates. The models suggest that the use of macrolides was the main factor associated with an increase of penicillin and erythromycin non-susceptible isolates from adults (P<0·01) and erythromycin non-susceptible isolates among children (P=0·006). These models also suggest that heptavalent vaccine is failing to reduce antimicrobial resistance as expected, possibly due to the increased consumption of azithromycin (P=0·04). The efficient use of new antibiotics may reverse the present trends of antimicrobial resistance.

Choline-binding proteins (CBP) have been associated with the pathogenesis of Streptococcus pneumoniae. We screened, using PCR, for the presence of genes (cbpA, D, E, G) encoding these proteins in 34 isolates of pneumococci of known serotypes and penicillin susceptibility from invasive and non-invasive disease. All isolates harboured cbpD and cbpE whereas cbpA and cbpG were found in 47% and 59% respectively; the latter were more frequent in vaccine-associated types and together accounted for 77% of these isolates. No association was observed with penicillin susceptibility but 85% of non-invasive isolates were positive for these genes.

Over 50% of the global burden of tuberculosis occurs in South East Asia and the Western Pacific. Since 1950, notification rates in high-income countries in these settings have declined slowly and have remained over ten-fold greater than those in Western populations. The reasons for the slow decline are poorly understood. Using an age-structured model describing the incidence of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection and disease applied to notification data from Hong Kong, we illustrate that in Hong Kong, a high prevalence of M. tuberculosis infection among older individuals and a high risk of disease through reactivation (e.g. up to 17-fold greater than that estimated for infected males in the United Kingdom) may explain this slow decline. If this feature of the epidemiology of tuberculosis is widespread, the WHO directly observed treatment short-course (DOTS) strategy may have a smaller impact in Asia in the short term than has been implied by recent predictions, all of which have been based on disease risk estimates derived from Western Europe. As a result, it may be difficult to meet the targets for tuberculosis control, which have been prescribed by the UN Millennium Development Goals.

Case reports have indicated transmission of Staphylococcus aureus between humans and pets. We investigated associations between level of contact between dog and owner, and S. aureus colonization. In a cross-sectional study, nasal carriage and antibiotic susceptibility of S. aureus was determined for 830 dogs and 736 owners. Relatedness of isolates was investigated using antibiograms and pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE). Associations between carriage and demographics or amount of contact between owners and dogs were documented. S. aureus was isolated in 24% of humans and 8·8% of dogs. Antibiotic resistance was significantly more common in canine isolates. Of 17 owner/dog colonized pairs, six were indistinguishable by PFGE. Colonization of dogs was not associated with close human contact, but was strongly associated with health-care occupations (OR 3·29, 95% CI 1·49–7·26, P=0·002). In outbreak situations health-care workers' pets should be considered as a source of S. aureus. High rates of resistance indicate increased monitoring of antibiotic use in veterinary practice is needed.

The distribution of Burkholderia pseudomallei was determined in soil collected from a rural district in Papua New Guinea (PNG) where melioidosis had recently been described, predominately affecting children. In 274 samples, 2·6% tested culture-positive for B. pseudomallei. Pulsed-field gel electrophoresis using SpeI digests and rapid polymorphic DNA PCR with five primers demonstrated a single clone amongst clinical isolates and isolates cultured from the environment that was commonly used by children from whom the clinical isolates were derived. We concluded that individuals in this region most probably acquired the organism through close contact with the environment at these sites. Burkholderia thailandensis, a closely related Burkholderia sp. was isolated from 5·5% of samples tested, an observation similar to that of melioidosis-endemic areas in Thailand. This is the first report of an environmental reservoir for melioidosis in PNG and confirms the Balimo district in PNG as melioidosis endemic.

We determined the epidemiological features of three zoonoses in hospitalized patients in southern Croatia. Patients were diagnosed by serological testing. Clinical and epidemiological data were also collected. Between 1982 and 2002, Mediterranean spotted fever (MSF) was diagnosed in 126 (incidence rate 1·27/100 000 per year), murine typhus (MT), in 57 (incidence rate 0·57/100 000 per year), and Q fever in 170 (incidence rate 1·7/100 000 per year) patients. MSF and Q fever were characterized by a marked seasonality. Incidences of Q fever and of MSF were higher for males than for females (P<0·0001 and P=0·0024, respectively). The most frequent of the three zoonoses in children was MSF. Q fever and MT cases were mostly seen in the 21–50 years age group. We found no statistically significant differences between season- and gender-specific incidence rates of MT. Whereas infections due to rickettsiae decreased, the incidence of Q fever increased over the last 12 years of the study.

The aim of this study was to assess the change of seasonal pattern of Japanese encephalitis (JE) cases in the post-vaccination period and to elucidate whether the lagged climate variables (precipitation and temperature) were associated with occurrence of JE after adjustment for seasonal pattern, time trend, geographic areas, pig density, vaccination coverage rate for humans, and time dependence of time-series numbers of JE cases. A total of 287 confirmed JE cases between 1991 and 2005 were collected, together with monthly data on socio-ecological archival data including climate, pig density and vaccination. A time-series generalized autoregressive Poisson regression model was used to achieve the objectives. The rate of JE increased from 1998 onwards. The seasonal pattern on occurrence of JE cases clustered between May and August during the period from 1991 to 2005 in Taiwan. In each geographic area, monitoring temperature and precipitation, two possible proxy variables for mosquito density, in conjunction with seasonal factors and pig density is of assistance in forecasting JE epidemics.

This study aimed to describe current epidemiological and clinical characteristics, medical follow-up and outcome in the real practice of acute hepatitis C (AHC) patients. AHC cases were retrospectively identified through the French Hepatology Reference Centres Surveillance system and additional data were collected. Sixty-one patients with AHC were identified (sex ratio: M/F 1·7/1; mean age 39 years). Forty-four (72%) had documented seroconversion within a 6-month period. Main reported risk exposures were intravenous or nasal drug use (35%), invasive medical procedures (25%) and sexual contact with a HCV-positive partner (20%). Spontaneous clearance of HCV RNA was observed in seven out of 16 patients followed without therapy. This study confirms the major role of drug use in HCV transmission and highlights the role of invasive medical procedures and occupational exposure.

This study examines a cohort of persons quarantined during the 2003 SARS outbreak in Canada and describes their understanding of, difficulties and compliance with, and the psychological impact of the quarantine experience. A mailed questionnaire was administered to 1912 eligible adults and included the Impact of Events Scale – Revised (IES-R) to assess symptoms of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Self-reported compliance with all required quarantine measures was low (15·8±2·3%), although significantly higher when the rationale for quarantine was understood (P=0·018). Health-care workers (HCW) experienced greater psychological distress, including symptoms of PTSD (P<0·001). Increasing perceived difficulty with compliance, HCW, longer quarantine and compliance with quarantine requirements were significant contributors to higher IES-R scores. The low compliance with quarantine requirements introduces concerns about the effectiveness of quarantine as a public health measure. Improvements in compliance and reduced psychological distress may be possible by minimizing duration, revising requirements, and providing enhanced education and support.