The Flexible Farrington Algorithm (FFA) is widely used to detect infectious disease outbreaks at national/regional levels on a weekly basis. The rapid spread of SARS-CoV-2 alongside the speed at which diagnostic and public health interventions were introduced made the FFA of limited use. We describe how the methodology was adapted to provide a daily alert system to support local health protection teams (HPTs) working in the 316 English lower-tier local authorities. To minimize the impact of a rapidly changing epidemiological situation, the FFA was altered to use 8 weeks of data. The adapted algorithm was based on reported positive counts using total tests as an offset. Performance was assessed using the root mean square error (RMSE) over a period. Graphical reports were sent to local teams enabling targeted public health action. From 1 July 2020, results were routinely reported. Adaptions accommodated the impact on reporting because of changes in diagnostic strategy (introduction of lateral flow devices). RMSE values were relatively small compared to observed counts, increased during periods of increased reporting, and were relatively higher in the northern and western areas of the country. The exceedance reports were well received. This presentation should be considered as a successful proof-of-concept.

Current standard microbiological techniques are generally very time consuming, usually requiring 24–72 h to establish a diagnosis. Consequentially, contemporary clinical practices implement broad-spectrum antibiotic administration prior to pathogen detection, prompting the emergence of extremely dangerous antibiotic-resistant bacteria. Additionally, lengthy test-to-result turnover times can greatly exacerbate the rate of disease spread. Rapid point-of-care (POC) diagnostics has quickly gained importance since the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic; accordingly, we have developed a rapid four-channel POC plasmonic quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) machine (Kimera P-IV) to respond to the deficiencies in infection control. Utilizing gold nanorods (GNRs) as nano-heaters and integrating vertical cavity surface emitting lasers (VCSEL) to replace traditional Peltier blocks, the Kimera P-IV has also incorporated quantitative real-time fluorescent monitoring. Using Chlamydia trachomatis genetic material to evaluate the rapid thermocycling performance of the platform, we have generated positive amplicons in less than 13 min; however, to achieve these results, several biological reagent considerations needed to be taken into account, specifically primer design. The device can achieve a limit of detection (LoD) of <101 DNA copies, a PCR efficiency of 88.3%, and can differentiate positive from negative results with 100% accuracy. Moreover, it can also analyze C. trachomatis DNA spiked urine samples via a simple dilution, suggesting that a separate nucleic acid step may not be needed for diagnosing infections. In conclusion, the operation of the Kimera P-IV prototype places it in a unique position of POC devices to revolutionize infectious disease diagnosis.

Multiple osteoarticular tuberculosis (MOT) represents an uncommon yet severe form of tuberculosis, characterized by a lack of systematic analysis and comprehension. Our objective was to delineate MOT’s epidemiological characteristics and establish a scientific foundation for prevention and treatment. We conducted searches across eight databases to identify relevant articles. Pearson’s chi-square test (Fisher’s exact test) and Bonferroni method were employed to assess osteoarticular involvement among patients of varying age and gender (α = 0.05). The study comprised 98 articles, encompassing 151 cases from 22 countries, with China and India collectively contributing 67.55% of cases. MOT predominantly affected individuals aged 0–30 years (58.94%). Pulmonary tuberculosis was evident in 16.55% of cases, with spinal involvement prevalent (57.62%). Significant differences were noted in trunk, spine, thoracic, and lumbar vertebrae involvement, as well as type I lesions across age groups, increasing with age. Moreover, significant differences were observed in upper limb bone involvement and type II lesions across age groups, decreasing with age. Gender differences were not significant. MOT primarily manifests in China and India, predominantly among younger individuals, indicating age-related variations in osteoarticular involvement. Enhanced clinical awareness is crucial for accurate MOT diagnosis, mitigating missed diagnoses and misdiagnoses.

In February 2023, 52 cases of gastrointestinal illness were reported in customers of Takeaway A, South Wales. Shigella flexneri serotype 2a was the causative organism. An outbreak investigation was conducted to determine the extent and vehicle of the outbreak.

Following descriptive summary and environmental investigations, a case–control study was completed. Participants completed a telephone questionnaire on food, travel, and environmental exposures. A multivariable logistic regression model was built, including exposures with p-values < 0.2 and interactions identified on stratified analysis. Staff faecal samples were screened for Shigella sp.

Thirty-one cases and 29 controls were included in the study. Eighty-seven per cent of cases and 76% of controls ate from Takeaway A on 10 February 2023. Coleslaw was the main factor associated with illness (aOR: 200, 95% CI: 12–3220) and an interaction with cabbage was identified (aOR: 886, 95% CI: 26–30034). Shigella sp. were not detected in any staff samples.

Coleslaw was the most likely vehicle. Though the contamination route is unknown, a food handler is the most likely source. This large outbreak differs from recent European outbreaks, which primarily have been associated with sexual transmission. Although uncommon in the UK, S. flexneri should be considered as a cause of foodborne outbreaks.

Cellulitis, a common subcutaneous infection, is influenced by host, pathogen, and environmental factors. Previous studies have shown seasonal patterns in adult cellulitis, suggesting temperature as a risk factor. This study investigated seasonal patterns in paediatric cellulitis in Jerusalem’s semi-arid climate. A single-center retrospective cohort study reviewed medical records of 2,219 hospitalized children under 18 with cellulitis between 1990 and 2020. Demographic, clinical, temperature, and humidity data were collected. Results revealed a significant sinusoidal pattern for limb cellulitis (LC) but for other body sites, with summer peaks and winter nadirs (P < 0.01). August showed the highest incidence, tripling that of February. Age groups 1-6 and 6-12 demonstrated the largest seasonal differences (P = 0.004, P = 0.008). Over three decades, paediatric hospitalized LC cases increased by 71% (P < 0.001), correlating with rising temperatures. Elevated ambient temperature seven days prior to diagnosis was a risk factor for LC development (OR = 1.02, P = 0.03). This study highlights the cyclic seasonal pattern of paediatric LC, peaking in summer. The significant increase in cases over time, coupled with rising temperatures, suggests climate change as a contributing factor. These findings could inform public health strategies for cellulitis prevention and management in children.

We studied severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and vaccination status among six ethnic groups in Amsterdam, the Netherlands. We analysed participants of the Healthy Life in an Urban Setting cohort who were tested for SARS-CoV-2 spike protein antibodies between 17 May and 21 November 2022. We categorized participants with antibodies as only infected, only vaccinated (≥1 dose), or both infected and vaccinated, based on self-reported prior infection and vaccination status and previous seroprevalence data. We compared infection and vaccination status between ethnic groups using multivariable, multinomial logistic regression. Of the 1,482 included participants, 98.5% had SARS-CoV-2 antibodies (P between ethnic groups = 0.899). Being previously infected and vaccinated ranged from 41.5% (95% confidence interval (CI) = 35.0–47.9%) in the African Surinamese to 67.1% (95% CI = 59.1–75.0%) in the Turkish group. Compared to participants of Dutch origin, participants of South-Asian Surinamese (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 3.31, 95% CI = 1.50–7.31)), African Surinamese (aOR = 10.41, 95% CI = 5.17–20.94), Turkish (aOR = 3.74, 95% CI = 1.52–9.20), or Moroccan (aOR = 15.24, 95% CI = 6.70–34.65) origin were more likely to be only infected than infected and vaccinated, after adjusting for age, sex, household size, trust in the government’s response to the pandemic, and month of study visit. SARS-CoV-2 infection and vaccination status varied across ethnic groups, particularly regarding non-vaccination. As hybrid immunity is most protective against coronavirus disease 2019, future vaccination campaigns should encourage vaccination uptake in specific demographic groups with only infection.

Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is a contagious communicable disease, with a high incidence in children aged under 10 years. It is a mainly self-limiting disease but can also cause serious neurological or cardiopulmonary complications in some cases, which can lead to death. Little is known about the burden of HMFD on primary care health care services in the UK. The aim of this work was to describe trends in general practitioner (GP) consultations for HFMD in England from January 2017 to December 2022 using a syndromic surveillance network of GPs. Daily GP consultations for HFMD in England were extracted from 1 January 2017 to 31 December 2022. Mean weekly consultation rates per 100,000 population and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated. Consultation rates and rate ratios (RR) were calculated by age group and sex. During the study period, the mean weekly consultation rate for HFMD (per 100,000 registered GP patients) was 1.53 (range of 0.27 to 2.47). In England, children aged 1–4 years old accounted for the largest affected population followed by children <1 years old. We observed a seasonal pattern of HFMD incidence during the non-COVID years, with a seasonal peak of mean weekly rates between months of September and December. HFMD is typically diagnosed clinically rather than through laboratory sampling. Therefore, the ability to look at the daily HFMD consultation rates provides an excellent epidemiological overview on disease trends. The use of a novel GP-in-hours surveillance system allowed a unique epidemiological insight into the recent trends of general practitioner consultations for HFMD. We demonstrate a male predominance of cases, the impact of the non-pharmaceutical interventions during the COVID-19 pandemic, and a change in the week in which the peak number of cases happens post-pandemic.

Since 1996, the incidence of rickettsiosis has been increasing in Yucatán, Mexico, but recent prevalence data are lacking. This study aimed to determine exposure to the Spotted Fever Group (SFG) and Typhus Group (TG) in human serum samples suspected of tick-borne diseases (TBD) between 2015 and 2022. A total of 620 samples were analysed using indirect immunofluorescence assay (IFA) to detect IgG antibodies against SFG (Rickettsia rickettsii) and TG (Rickettsia typhi), considering a titer of ≥64 as positive. Results showed that 103 samples (17%) were positive for R. rickettsii and 145 (24%) for R. typhi, while 256 (41%) and 229 (37%) were negative, respectively. There was a cross-reaction in 244 samples (39%). Individuals with contact with vectors, such as ticks, showed significant exposure to fleas (p = 0.0010). The study suggests a high prevalence of rickettsiosis and recommends prospective studies to assess the disease burden and strengthen surveillance and prevention in Yucatán, considering factors like temperature and ecological changes.

The strategy of tuberculosis (TB) contact investigation is essential for enhancing disease detection. We conducted a cross-sectional study to evaluate the yield of contact investigation for new TB cases, estimate the prevalence of TB, and identify characteristics of index cases associated with infection among contacts of new cases notified between 2010 and 2020 in São Paulo, Brazil. Out of 186466 index TB cases, 131055 (70.3%) underwent contact investigation. A total of 652286 contacts were screened, of which 451704 (69.2%) were examined. Of these, 12243 were diagnosed with active TB (yield of 1.9%), resulting in a number needed to screen of 53 and a number needed to test of 37 to identify one new TB case. The weighted prevalence for the total contacts screened was 2.8% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.7%–2.9%), suggesting underreporting of 6021 (95% CI: 5269–6673) cases. The likelihood of TB diagnosis was higher among contacts of cases identified through active case-finding, abnormal chest X-ray, pulmonary TB, or drug resistance, as well as among children, adults, women, individuals in socially vulnerable situations, and those with underlying clinical conditions. The study highlights significant TB underreporting among contacts, recommending strengthened contact investigation to promptly identify and treat new cases.

COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness (VE) studies are limited in low- and middle-income countries. A case-control study was conducted among COVID-19 and other pneumonia patients admitted to a hospital in the Philippines during the pre-Omicron and Omicron periods. To elucidate factors associated with in-hospital death, 1782 COVID-19 patients were assessed. To estimate absolute VE for various severe outcomes, 1059 patients were assessed (869 [82.1%] COVID-19 cases; 190 [17.9%] controls). Factors associated with in-hospital death included older age, tuberculosis (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 2.45 [95% confidence interval {95% CI} 1.69–3.57]), HIV (aOR 3.30 [95% CI 2.03–5.37]), and current smokers (aOR 2.65 [95% CI 1.72–4.10]). Pre-Omicron, the primary series provided high protection within a median of 2 months (hospitalization: 85.4% [95% CI 35.9–96.7%]; oxygen requirement: 91.0% [95% CI 49.4–98.4%]; invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV): 97.0% [95% CI 65.7–99.7%]; death: 96.5% [95% CI 67.1–99.6%]). During Omicron, the primary series provided moderate-high protection within a median of 6–9 months (hospitalization: 70.2% [95% CI 27.0–87.8%]; oxygen requirement: 71.4% [95% CI 29.3–88.4%]; IMV: 72.7% [95% CI −11.6–93.3%]; death: 58.9% [95% CI −82.8–90.8%]). Primary series VE against severe COVID-19 outcomes was consistently high for both pre-Omicron and Omicron in a setting where approximately half of the vaccinees received inactivated vaccines.

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks have repeatedly occurred in two districts of Kerala state, India, over the last few years. The outbreaks in the wetland areas coincided with the arrival of migratory birds. At the time, the factors responsible for local transmission in ducks were not known. This study aimed to identify the socio-economic factors responsible for spatial variation in the occurrence of HPAI outbreaks in the two districts using Bayesian network modelling (BNM) and Stochastic Partial Differential Equation (SPDE) model. Further, information was collected on the duck rearing practices in rice paddy fields to identify the risk factors for local – spread of the outbreaks. We found that the SPDE model without covariates explained variation in occurrence of outbreaks. The number of rice paddy fields used by the duck farmers was identified as risk factor. We concluded based on BNM and SPDE that the infected migratory birds were the source of infection for the first few duck farms in the wetland areas and subsequent transmission was driven by shifting of ducks from one rice paddy field to other fields. There is a probability of persistent and recurrent infections in the ducks and possible spill over to humans. Hence, it is important to have surveillance in ducks to prevent recurrent outbreaks in the region.

With the ongoing emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants, there is a need for standard approaches to characterize the risk of vaccine breakthrough. We aimed to estimate the association between variant and vaccination status in case-only surveillance data. Included cases were symptomatic adult laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases, with onset between January 2021 and April 2022, reported by five European countries (Estonia, Ireland, Luxembourg, Poland, and Slovakia) to The European Surveillance System. Associations between variant and vaccination status were estimated using conditional logistic regression, within strata of country and calendar date, and adjusting for age and sex. We included 80,143 cases including 20,244 Alpha (B.1.1.7), 152 Beta (B.1.351), 39,900 Delta (B.1.617.2), 361 Gamma (P.1), 10,014 Omicron BA.1, and 9,472 Omicron BA.2. Partially vaccinated cases were more likely than unvaccinated cases to be Beta than Alpha (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 2.48, 95% CI 1.29–4.74), and Delta than Alpha (aOR 1.75, 1.31–2.34). Fully vaccinated cases were relative to unvaccinated cases more frequently Beta than Alpha (aOR 4.61, 1.89–11.21), Delta than Alpha (aOR 2.30, 1.55–3.39), and Omicron BA.1 than Delta (aOR 1.91, 1.60–2.28). We found signals of increased breakthrough infections for Delta and Beta relative to Alpha, and Omicron BA.1 relative to Delta.

Klebsiella pneumoniae are opportunistic pathogens which can cause mastitis in dairy cattle. K. pneumoniae mastitis often has a poor cure rate and can lead to the development of chronic infection, which has an impact on both health and production. However, there are few studies which aim to fully characterize K. pneumoniae by whole-genome sequencing from bovine mastitis cases. Here, K. pneumoniae isolates associated with mastitis in dairy cattle were identified using matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionisation time-of-flight mass spectrometry (MALDI-TOF MS) and whole-genome sequencing. Furthermore, whole-genome sequence data were used for phylogenetic analyses and both virulence and antimicrobial resistance (AMR) prediction, in parallel with phenotypic AMR testing. Forty-two isolates identified as K. pneumoniae were subject to whole-genome sequencing, with 31 multi-locus sequence types being observed, suggesting the source of these isolates was likely environmental. Isolates were examined for key virulence determinants encoding acquired siderophores, colibactin, and hypermucoidy. The majority of these were absent, except for ybST (encoding yersiniabactin) which was present in six isolates. Across the dataset, there were notable levels of phenotypic AMR against streptomycin (26.2%) and tetracycline (19%), and intermediate susceptibility to cephalexin (26.2%) and neomycin (21.4%). Of importance was the detection of two ESBL-producing isolates, which demonstrated multi-drug resistance to amoxicillin-clavulanic acid, streptomycin, tetracycline, cefotaxime, cephalexin, and cefquinome.

The course of COVID-19 is highly variable, with genetics playing a significant role. Through large-scale genetic association studies, a link between single nucleotide polymorphisms and disease susceptibility and severity was established. However, individual single nucleotide polymorphisms identified thus far have shown modest effects, indicating a polygenic nature of this trait, and individually have limited predictive performance. To address this limitation, we investigated the performance of a polygenic risk score model in the context of COVID-19 severity in a Russian population. A genome-wide polygenic risk score model including information from over a million common single nucleotide polymorphisms was developed using summary statistics from the COVID-19 Host Genetics Initiative consortium. Low-coverage sequencing (5x) was performed for ~1000 participants, and polygenic risk score values were calculated for each individual. A multivariate logistic regression model was used to analyse the association between polygenic risk score and COVID-19 outcomes. We found that individuals in the top 10% of the polygenic risk score distribution had a markedly elevated risk of severe COVID-19, with adjusted odds ratio of 2.9 (95% confidence interval: 1.8–4.6, p-value = 4e-06), and more than four times higher risk of mortality from COVID-19 (adjusted odds ratio = 4.3, p-value = 2e-05). This study highlights the potential of polygenic risk score as a valuable tool for identifying individuals at increased risk of severe COVID-19 based on their genetic profile.

With climate change, the geographic distribution of some VBDs has expanded, highlighting the need for adaptation, and managing the risks associated with emergence in new areas. We conducted a questionnaire survey on the knowledge, attitudes, and practices (KAP) about vector-borne diseases (VBDs) among sample of Finnish residents. The questions were scored and the level of KAP was determined based on scoring as poor, fair, good, or excellent. Binary logistic regression analysis was used to evaluate the associations of different KAP levels with sex, age, education, and possible previous VPD infection. We received 491/1995 (25%) responses across the country and detected generally good knowledge, but only fair practices towards VBDs. Sex and age of the respondents were most often significantly associated with the level of KAP (P > 0.05). Despite the generally good knowledge, we detected major gaps, especially regarding the distinction of tick-borne encephalitis and Lyme borreliosis (LB), risk of disease, and protective measures. Additionally, many respondents thought the vaccination protects against LB or tick bites. This calls for awareness raising on disease risk and prevention measures. With increasing cases and the effects of climate change, surveillance of VBDs communication to the general public should be strengthened.

Surveillance of antimicrobial consumption (AMC) is essential to anticipate and inform policies and public health decisions to prevent and/or contain antimicrobial resistance (AMR). This manuscript shares the experience on AMC data collection in Latin American & Caribbean (LAC). The WHO GLASS-AMC methodology for AMC surveillance was used for data registration during the period 2019–2022. Focal points belonging to each country were contacted and trained for AMC source of information detection, managing registration tools, and data analysis. Thirteen countries were enrolled with significant heterogeneity in the AMC results (range 2.55–36.26 DID-AMC). This experience reflects the heterogeneity of realities in LAC countries; how each one of the nations selected the best sources to collect AMC data, which were the main problems in applying the WHO-AMC collection tool, and the approach that each country gave to the analysis of its data. Finally, some examples are provided on the use of AMC information in making the best decision-making related to AMR control policies at the national level.

Hepatitis E virus (HEV) is one of the most common causes of viral hepatitis. We examined HEV seroprevalence and associations of sociodemographic and lifestyle characteristics with HEV immunoglobulin G (IgG) seropositivity in the Arab population. A cross-sectional single-centre study was conducted among adults in the Nazareth area during 2022. Blood samples were tested using the Altona Real-Star HEV-RNA and the Wantai IgG assays. Data on sociodemographics, health status, and lifestyle were collected using structured questionnaires.

Overall, 490 individuals (55.9% males) aged 18 − 96 (mean = 53.2, SD = 28.0) were enrolled. HEV IgG seropositivity was estimated at 21.4% (95% CI 17.9–25.3). No samples were HEV-RNA positive. The correlates of HEV IgG seropositivity were older age (prevalence ratio (PR) 1.07, 95% CI 1.04–1.09, P < 0.001) and consuming beef frequently (PR 2.81, 95% CI 1.40–5.63, P = 0.003). No associations were found between Arab religious groups (Muslim, Christian or Druze, representing different socioeconomic status and dietary habits) or pork consumption and HEV IgG seropositivity. In conclusion, HEV seropositivity was high in the Arab population, and assessing HEV in Ruminants, particularly cows, is warranted.

The financial burden of hospitalization from life-threatening infectious diseases on the U.S. healthcare system is substantial and continues to increase. The purpose of this study was to identify key predictors of high hospital charges for infective endocarditis at a major university-affiliated cardiac care centre in West Virginia.

A retrospective electronic medical records’ review was undertaken of all adult patients admitted for endocarditis between 2014–2018. Multiple linear regression analysis assessed the total charges billed to the patient account for their endocarditis hospitalization in the medical record.

Hospital charges have increased 12-fold during 2014–2018. Among the 486 patients, the median hospital charge was $198 678. About 47% of the patients underwent surgery incurring 70% of the total charges. Patients with hospital stays of ≥50 days accounted for a third of all charges. The multiple linear regression model accounted for 85% of the linear variance in the hospital charges. Median charges increased by 30.87% for patients with ≥9 consultations, 60.32% for those who died in the hospital, and 81.85% for those who underwent surgical intervention.

The study findings showed that complex care requiring multiple consultations, surgical interventions, and longer hospital stays were significantly associated with higher hospital charges for endocarditis treatment.