In this article, we concern ourselves with the modelling of macroeconomic time series within the unit-roots framework. We apply two approaches which seem to be well suited to model business cycles and long-run growth phenomena. First, we apply the Markov-switching model which is built around the idea that a variable may be associated with different regimes. We extend this approach to allow for asymmetries in business cycles and find that with this modification the model identifies regimes which cannot be associated with notions of the business cycle. Second, in a cointegration analysis we examine common stochastic trends and international transmission of macroeconomic shocks. The results show that transient shocks do not vanish, but have long persistent effects. Furthermore, we supplement the cointegration approach with an impulse response analysis and find that there exists a transmission of shocks between countries which indicates great international dependencies in economic activity.

In this paper, we examine the consequences of delaying retirement in an overlapping generations model with domestic production and parental transfers in the form of grandchild care. We show that a change in age at retirement influences the employment rates of both the young and the old. This interdependency stems from the provision of family transfers. Postponing retirement may increase time devoted to grandchild care transfers, which allows the young to work more on the labor market. We then study the conditions under which this positive family externality holds. Finally, using numerical simulations, we assess the consequences of delaying retirement on labor participation and account for public policy implications.

Un article précédent étudiait la distinction sémantique de l'analytique et du synthétique et l'appliquait à la micro-économie; celui-ci confronte les propositions micro-économiques fondamentales à la distinction épistémologique de l'a priori et de l'a posteriori (ou de l'empirique), tout en s'efforçant de systématiser les quatre concepts. Après avoir repris la définition kantienne de l'a priori et le problème célèbre du synthétique a priori, on met en place deux grandes interprétations des propositions fondamentales, l'empirisme (illustré par l'école classique anglaise) et l'apriorisme (illustré par von Mises au sein de l'école néo-classique autrichienne). On récuse les deux interprétations - la seconde avec plus de détail que la première. On conclut que les propositions fondamentales sont synthétiques, mais ni a priori, ni a posteriori; cette catégorie échappe aux découpages ordinaires. On défend l'interprétation nouvelle en étudiant la loi des rendements décroissants et l'hypothèse de convexité des ensembles de production.

According to AK growth models, permanent changes in investment rates have permanent effects on a country's rate of economic growth. Jones (Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1995, 110, 495-525) finds strong evidence against this prediction studying the time series properties of GDP growth rates and investment output ratios in fifteen OECD countries for the period 1950-1988. In this paper, we test the same hypothesis in four OECD countries using a longer span of data (1870-2002 for Canada, the UK and the US, and 1885-2002 for Japan). Moreover, instead of using classic approaches, which are based on stationary I(0) or unit roots I(1) processes, we use methodologies based on fractional integration. After examining the order of integration of GDP growth rates and non-residential investment ratios for these countries, we do not find much evidence against the “growth effects” prediction of AK models. In fact, we only find clear evidence against this theory for the UK case.

This article addresses the important issue of anchoring in contingent valuation surveys that use the double-bounded elicitation format. Anchoring occurs when responses to the follow-up dichotomous choice valuation question are influenced by the bid presented in the initial dichotomous choice question. Specifically, we adapt a theory from psychology to characterize respondents as those who are likely to anchor and those who are not. Using a model developed by Herriges and Shogren (1996), our method appears successful in discriminating between those who anchor and those who did not. An important result is that when controlling for anchoring – and allowing the degree of anchoring to differ between respondent groups – the efficiency of the double-bounded welfare estimate is greater than for the initial dichotomous choice question. This contrasts with earlier research that finds that the potential efficiency gain from the double-bounded questions is lost when anchoring is controlled for and that we are better off not asking follow-up questions.

The aim of this paper is to clarify three issues relating to the empirical investigation of prices and import penetration when marginal costs are not increasing. The first is to demonstrate explicitly the simultaneous determination of industrial prices and import penetration. Second, to examine how oligopoly and/or product differentiation may lead to international trade between identical countries. Third, to emphasise the importance of the technology of demand when trying to explain price and trade. The technology of production is often mentioned in this context, yet the technology of demand, by which is meant the characterisation of the tastes of consumers, is usually ignored but is shown to be of some importance.

In order to simplify the discussion it is assumed that all firms in all countries have access to identical technologies and factor costs. Unlike in the usual textbook models, marginal costs are assumed to be nonincreasing. Furthermore, the consumption patterns in each country are taken to be identical. There is, however, one difference between selling on the home market, and selling abroad — there are trading costs. These may result from transport costs, tariffs, social, linguistic and legal factors, or anything else, but they are assumed to apply with equal magnitude to each country. These assumptions permit a clearer analysis of the effects of oligopoly and product differentiation.

There is an entire branch of industrial location analysis in economics and operational research that refers back to Weber. In this paper I show that the model he developed had already been proposed by W. Launhardt in 1882 as a generalization of a route planning method presented in 1872. It contained all the technical aspects of Weber’s model. That does not mean Weber should be forgotten though, as his contribution involves far more than the simple presentation of the model. In terms of method, he defends and uses the hypothetical-deductive method. As for the content, he attempts to understand the formation of concentrations of economic activities and population, which leads to an interesting analysis of agglomeration economies.

The paper argues that gaining information on potential investment opportunities can be a sufficient motive for the acquisition of a firm, at least in conglomerate merger cases. It suggests that search via merger can be efficient and hence rational behaviour under more-or-less stan¬dard assumptions. Some support for a merger-as-search hypothesis exists in the presently available evidence on merger activity, though the relative incidence of search motivated merger is not clear. A potential welfare gain is identified concerning the flexibility of capital transfer in the economy, but this may be offset by an impairment to the long-run corporate competitive process. At the practical policy level the arguments support the use of non-discretionary rules rather than case-by-case review.

L'objectif de cet article est d'étudier le rôle d'Internet dans la formation du capital social. L'usage d'Internet a-t-il un impact sur la nature et l'intensité des investissements d'un individu dans des réseaux sociaux formels et informels ? Cette question est d'abord examinée d'un point de vue théorique à l'aide d'un modèle microéconomique d'investissement en capital social. Puis, à partir de données luxembourgeoises nous tentons d'identifier empiriquement les déterminants de l'investissement en capital social hors Internet et via Internet. Nous mettons en évidence un effet positif de l'usage d'Internet sur l'engagement dans des réseaux sociaux. Par ailleurs, nous montrons que la majorité des investissements en capital social via Internet viennent en complément des investissements hors Internet (investissements directs), sauf pour les individus ayant connu une mobilité ou une rupture dans le passé (géographique, professionnelle, affective). Ces derniers semblent tirer des bénéfices importants de l'usage de l'Internet, pour entretenir ou renouveler leur capital social.

In the Dixit-Stiglitz model of monopolistic competition the effects of individual pricing decisions on the aggregate price index are neglected. This paper studies the implications of this approximation in terms of the efficiency of macroeconomic equilibria. We show that allowing for the price-index effect, makes the degree of inefficiency positively correlated with the number of agents; it also reduces the scope for New Keynesian outcomes, such as price rigidity and multiple equilibria.

The focus of this article is the comparison of the relative influence of different determinants of investment (demand, the relative price of capital and labour, and profit) for five large European countries and the United States. The investment equations are derived from production functions, either putty-putty or putty-clay, in the context of a disequilibrium model. The comparison of annual and quarterly estimates (after aggregation in a equivalent annual model) improves the evaluation of the precision of the parameter estimates.

In all these countries, in accordance with the accelerator effect, demand is the dominant influence in the short term, fading away in the medium term. In contrast, profit is not a predominant influence except in the medium term. Its role thus seems to result from the effect of expectations on investment profitability rather than from short run self-financing constraints. With respect to factor substitution, the analysis confirms that this is only weakly linked to changes in the relative price of capital and labour.

This paper aims at providing a possible explanation for the seemingly peripheral role played by spatial economics in modern economic theory. It considers successively five points of view according to which space is introduced in economic models and assesses their contributions and limits.

L’objet de cet article est de faire le point sur les efforts entrepris pour développer une théorie des fluctuations conjoncturelles dans le cadre de modèles d’équilibre général. Plus spécifiquement il propose une évaluation de la méthodologie et des principaux résultats de ce qui est connu sous le nom de théorie des “cycles d’affaires réels” (Real Business Cycles) tout en proposant d’intégrer des considérations non walrasiennes dans le modèle néoclassique de croissance stochastique qui en est le fondement.

Constructing complete demand systems is an example of the ideal type of econometrics. It uses a well-developed theory, an extensive set of data and a refined estimation technique. In particular, a strong relationship between theory and estimation distinguishes it from other empirical economic studies. This strong relationship is at the same time a source of possibilities and a source of problems. Here, the focus will be on some problems caused by the fact that the theory is about individual behaviour while the data is about aggregate behaviour and by the fact that the theory is not much help in specifying the functional form of the system, which is obviously needed for estimation. These two problems are interrelated to a certain extent and have not yet been solved satisfactorily.

Hall [1978] showed that the life cycle consumption hypothesis implies a first order autoregressive process for the marginal utility of consumption. This paper extends his results by showing that an appropriate pattern of rational habits will lead to an arbitrary autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) process for consumption. Since the framework allows for consumption of durable goods, the analysis extends the results of Mankiw [1982]