What is guilt beyond a reasonable doubt (BARD) for a Bayesian? Is thinking of BARD in terms of probabilities a nonstarter? I propose an account of BARD compatible with Subjective Bayesianism that rejects the view that BARD is met by a threshold probability. BARD is a judgment, not merely about the credal state the factfinder endorses as her own (i.e. not merely as one’s own credence in guilt), but as about alternative possible credences, specifically those the factfinder does not endorse, but finds reasonable. To this end, I employ a Bayesian framework, expounded by Lange (1999), that permits revision of past prior probability assignments. Such a framework presupposes a point of view free from one’s prior from which a prior is judged. A trier-of-fact asks whether doubt persists among any reasonable starting point one might take; if it does, acquittal is warranted.

We show that for $\lambda\in[0,{m_1}/({1+\sqrt{1-{1}/{m_1}}})]$, the biased random walk’s speed on a Galton–Watson tree without leaves is strictly decreasing, where $m_1\geq 2$. Our result extends the monotonic interval of the speed on a Galton–Watson tree.

This article proposes Bayesian adaptive trials (BATs) as both an efficient method to conduct trials and a unifying framework for the evaluation of social policy interventions, addressing the limitations inherent in traditional methods, such as randomized controlled trials. Recognizing the crucial need for evidence-based approaches in public policy, the proposed approach aims to lower barriers to the adoption of evidence-based methods and to align evaluation processes more closely with the dynamic nature of policy cycles. BATs, grounded in decision theory, offer a dynamic, “learning as we go” approach, enabling the integration of diverse information types and facilitating a continuous, iterative process of policy evaluation. BATs’ adaptive nature is particularly advantageous in policy settings, allowing for more timely and context-sensitive decisions. Moreover, BATs’ ability to value potential future information sources positions it as an optimal strategy for sequential data acquisition during policy implementation. While acknowledging the assumptions and models intrinsic to BATs, such as prior distributions and likelihood functions, this article argues that these are advantageous for decision-makers in social policy, effectively merging the best features of various methodologies.

Aphids are important pests of cereal crops and cause economically significant damage through direct feeding and the transmission of plant viruses. In Europe, the aphid species of greatest concern are the grain aphid (Sitobion avenae Fabricius) and the bird cherry-oat aphid, (Rhopalosiphum padi Linnaeus). Often, cereal crops are dominated by a small number of prolific clonal populations and these populations can differ in phenotypic traits of agricultural importance. There are two heritable factors that influence aphid phenotype: aphid genetic diversity and the presence of endosymbionts.

Here, multiple cereal aphid populations are used to determine how heritable factors influence aphid phenotype. Several agriculturally important phenotypic traits are examined, and both endosymbiont- and genotype-derived phenotypes are identified. For S. avenae, aphid genotype influences all phenotypic traits assessed, and association with the facultative endosymbiont Regiella insecticola influences alate morph production with co-infection of R. insecticola and Fukatsuia symbiotica increasing reproductive output. For R. padi, adult aphid morph (apterous or alate) is the key driver behind reproductive output, with a genotype × morph effect also found to influence development time.

Overall, these results provide insight into the biological drivers behind phenotypic diversity in agriculturally important aphid species. Being able to associate heritable factors with key phenotypes can generate biological insights into the processes underpinning the dominance of specific aphid clones and can be used to develop pest and disease management strategies based around the phenotypic risk of the aphid populations present.

Following the rise of liberalism and nationalism during the nineteenth century, Jewish national identity varied across countries. While Western European and American Jews mainly came to think of themselves as nationals of their country of citizenship, a growing number of Eastern European Jews claimed to be a separate nation with a legitimate claim to self-government. Comparing the evolution of Jewish identities across North America and Europe and leveraging a regression discontinuity design based on the differential treatment of Polish and Russian Jews under Tsarism, I find that their divergent national identities responded to the extent to which Jews were politically emancipated in the country where they lived over the long century that followed the Atlantic Revolutions. Social and economic modernization played a weaker role, suggesting the need to think about national identity formation as endogenous to political and constitutional transformations marking the birth of the contemporary era.

We analysed the performance of convolutional autoencoders in generating reduced-order representations of the temperature field of two-dimensional Rayleigh–Bénard flows at $\textit{Pr} =1$ and Rayleigh numbers extending from $10^6$ to $10^8$, capturing the range where the flow transitions to turbulence. We present a way of estimating the minimum number of dimensions needed by the autoencoders to capture all the relevant physical scales of the data that is more apt for highly multiscale flows than previous criteria applied to lower-dimensional systems. We compare our architecture with two regularized variants as well as with linear methods, and find that manually fixing the dimension of the latent space produces the best results. We show how the estimated minimum dimension presents a sharp increase around $Ra\sim 10^7$, when the flow starts to transition to turbulence. Furthermore, we show how this dimension does not follow the same scaling as the physically relevant scales, such as the dissipation length scale and the thermal boundary layer.

The tonuity, proposed by Chen et al. ((2019) ASTIN Bulletin: The Journal of the IAA, 49(1), 530.), is a combination of an immediate tontine and a deferred annuity. However, its switching time from tontine to annuity is fixed at the moment the contract is closed, possibly becoming sub-optimal if mortality changes over time. This article introduces an alternative tonuity product, wherein a dynamic switching condition is pivotal, relying on the observable mortality trends within a reference population. The switching from tontine to annuity then occurs automatically once the condition is satisfied. Using data from the Human Mortality Database and UK Continuous Mortality Investigation, we demonstrate that, in a changing environment, where an unforeseen mortality or longevity shock leads to an unexpected increase or decrease in mortality rates, the proposed dynamic tonuity contract can be preferable to the regular tonuity contract.

This paper addresses the conceptual gap between the expected benefits of federalism in managing ethnicity-based conflict and its actual governance outcomes in the African context. One of the main reasons for this gap is the conflation of federalism with decentralization. In response, we develop and configure polycentric federalism as a praxis-oriented framework with three institutional parameters, administrative devolution, peaceful competition among governance units, and individual choice of alternating governance structures. Through this framework, we analyse federal institutional design in Nigeria and Ethiopia to illustrate why federalism fails to effectively manage ethnicity-based conflict in African states. Despite the varying approaches to federalism in the two cases, institutional design falls far short of achieving the parameters of polycentric federalism, a necessary condition for effectively managing diversity through federalism. Beyond the policy implications, our analysis contributes to institutional economics by illustrating how federal institutional design affects identity-based group dynamics in conflict-ridden multiethnic polities.

Alexandrian poetry is mostly characterized by the metrical forms of the hexameter and the elegiac distich, but also provides evidence of experimental attempts to innovate formal aspects of rhythm and metre. Taking inspiration from the archaic tradition of monody and song-making, especially in the third century b.c. poets toyed with verse forms that allowed them to ‘widen the repertory’ of metres available for the composition of literary poems,1 using them in stichic forms, as markers of poetic expertise. This article explores some of these experiments and aims at unveiling the Hellenistic reuse of metres from the archaic tradition of lyric poetry (such as the greater asclepiad and the pherecratean) to evoke specific narrative tropes, thus generating literary associations through metre.

The mass and heat balance of Arctic sea ice is affected by the deformation of level ice and the amount of ice stored in sea ice ridges and rubble fields. One important property of sea ice ridges is the macroporosity or void fraction. While macroporosity has been observed in field and laboratory studies, data are sparse and a concise theory of its evolution is lacking. In the present study, the hypothesis is investigated that the initial macroporosity of sea ice ridges is related to random loose packing. When laboratory results on the packing of ice blocks are corrected for boundary effects, good agreement with random loose packing predictions is obtained. The macroporosity then depends mainly on the length-to-thickness ratio of the ice blocks ϵb and it can be expected to fall in the range of $0.4 \lt \phi \lt 0.5$ for typical dimensions of ice blocks in sea ice ridges. In the field, such high macroporosity values are seldom observed., because thermodynamic adjustment, related to the increase in microporosity of submerged cold ice blocks, rapidly decreases the initial macroporosity by 0.1 to 0.15 for typical Arctic freezing conditions. Taking into account this effect, field observations are also consistent with random loose packing of ice blocks. The proposed macroporosity prediction can be useful for modeling the consolidation and property evolution of sea ice ridges and rubble fields and for improving thickness redistribution algorithms in sea ice models.

Parenting programs are effective ways to reduce child maltreatment and promote nurturing parent–child relationships. Yet, the potential of faith-based, positive parent programs, particularly those conducted globally at scale, remains underexplored. We conducted a pre-post and 6-month follow-up, single-group study of a faith- and community-based parenting program, Celebrating Families (CF), in 12 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, Central America and South East Asia. Using a train-the-trainers model, faith leaders delivered group-based parenting workshops over 3–5 days to a nonrandomized sample of 2201 caregivers across 12 countries. Data was collected at three time points. Shifts in caregiver attitudes and beliefs were assessed pre- and post, and harsh parenting behaviors were measured at pre- and 6-months after CF parent program implementation. Acceptability was demonstrated by high attendance and high satisfaction ratings from facilitators and caregivers. Trained faith and community leaders feasibly delivered the CF parent groups and were rated by caregivers to have strong teaching skills. Qualitative analysis of their feedback at 6-month follow-up highlighted barriers to implementation and areas for improvement. Results with those caregivers who completed the program suggest large to medium effect size improvements in caregiver attitudes around harsh discipline and nurturing parenting by country and change in reported use of harsh parenting behaviors at 6 months. Findings suggest that CF is a feasible and acceptable program with promising short-term effects for caregivers of children and adolescents in low- and middle-income countries.

What should we believe? One plausible view is that we should believe what is true. Another is that we should believe what is rational to believe. I will argue that both these theses can be accounted for once we add an independently motivated contextualism about normative terms. According to contextualism, the content of ‘ought’ depends on two parameters – a goal and a modal base (or set of possible worlds). It follows that there is a sense in which we should believe truths and a sense in which we should believe what is rational to believe.