Almost all economic indicators show that the rise of China is all but
inevitable. Many argue that it is already happening. China may rank
as the second, or the third, or the fourth largest world economic
power, depending on how one does the counting, after enjoying an
average annual GDP growth rate of nearly 10% in the past quarter of
a century (1983–2007) (National Bureau of Statistics of China).
China currently has the largest foreign currency reserve in the
world, reaching one trillion U.S. dollars (People's Bank of China)
and China became the second largest trade country after the U.S. in
2007 (Wenweipo
2007). In fact, no discussion of world
economy is adequate without talking about China. Even though the
United States is currently embroiled in Iraq and the war on terror,
there is no question that the rise of China is still very much in
back of the minds of American foreign policy makers and political
elites, especially during the current presidential campaigns. For
instance, one survey of American international relations scholars
reveals that while 58% of the scholars believe that the greatest
strategically important region for the United States is the Middle
East right now, 60% of them think it will be China and East Asia in
20 years (Peterson, Tierney, and Maliniak 2005). A public survey shows that a majority of the
citizens in many developing countries think it would be a good thing
if China were to become as large a military power as the United
States (Pew Global Attitudes Project 2005).We would like to
acknowledge the two anonymous reviewers for their helpful
comments on an earlier version of this paper. We also want
express our gratitude to the 132 scholars who participated in
our survey.