Assessing risks from potential glacier hazards in relation to safety considerations for settlements and other fixed installations in high mountain areas requires the application of experience gained from previous events, combined with simple rules derived from basic glaciological theory. The general characteristics of steep, and usually unmeasured, glaciers can be estimated on the basis of a rough parameterization scheme. Variations in glacier length, ice avalanches, and glacier floods then have to be considered for time periods ranging from a few years up to a few decades. As a result of such systematic assessments, maps of potentially dangerous zones can be prepared. Although the inhabitants of many Alpine villages have always lived with the risk of glacier hazards, it now appears that modern construction work, especially that connected with the development of tourism, has started to infiltrate previously avoided high-risk zones more and more. In order to plan reasonable safety measures, risks from glacier hazards have to be compared with those from other natural hazards in mountain areas, such as snow avalanches, landslides, rock falls! or storm-induced floods. Decisions about the acceptable level of risk are difficult and subjective; they are also often influenced by political and economical considerations rather than by scientific reasoning.

A small avalanche path near the Bridger Bowl ski area in southwestern Montana has been instrumented to measure density, velocity and dynamic friction in a flowing avalanche. These measurements, made by an array of sensors mounted in the avalanche path, have been carried out for several dry-snow avalanches. Measurements of density were made using a capacitance probe that measures the dielectric constant of any material that passes in front of it. Through a calibration procedure, the dielectric constant of a given type of snow can be related to the density of that snow. Optical sensors were used to measure light reflected from the avalanche as it passed by the sensors. Signals from adjacent optical sensors were cross-correlated to determine velocity. Density and velocity measurements were made at several heights in the avalanche, with particular attention directed near the running surface. Results indicate that avalanche deformation is concentrated near the running surface where the snow density is found to be largest. Upward from the surface, the velocity gradient falls off greatly while the density also declines.

Finally, the dynamic-friction coefficient at the base of the avalanche was found by measuring shear and normal forces on a roughened 23 cm × 28 cm aluminum plate mounted parallel and flush with the avalanche running surface. The ratio of the shear force to normal force on the plate provides a measure of the dynamic-friction coefficient at the base of the avalanche.

We used surface climate fields from high-resolution (~0.5660.56˚) European Centre for Medium-RangeWeather Forecasts (ECMWF) operational analyses (1992–98), together with meteorological and glaciological models of snow accumulation and surface meltwater runoff/retention, to produce novel maps of Greenland ice sheet (GIS) net accumulation, net runoff and surface mass balance (SMB). We compared our runoff maps with similar-scaled runoff (melt minus refreezing) maps based on passive-microwave satellite data. Our gross spatial/temporal patterns of runoff compared well with those from the satellite data, although amounts of modelled runoff are likely too low. Mean accumulation was 0.287 (0.307)ma–1, and mean runoff was 0.128 (0.151)ma–1, averaged across the W. Abdalati (T. L. Mote) GIS mask. Corresponding mean SMB was 0.159 (0.156)ma–1, with considerable interannual variability (standard deviation ~0.11ma–1) primarily due to variations in runoff. Considering best estimates of current iceberg calving, overall the GIS is probably currently losing mass. Our study shows great promise for meaningfully modelling SMB based on forthcoming ``second-generation’’ ECMWF re-analysis (ERA-40) data, and comparing the results with ongoing laser/radarmeasurements of surface elevation. This should help elucidate to what extent surface elevation changes are caused by short-term SMB variations or other factors (e.g. ice dynamics).

The temporal and spatial variations of mass balance on different timescales were analyzed to identify their response to climate change using long-term observed mass-balance data covering the period 1959–2002 at Ürümqi glacier No. 1 at the headwaters of the Ürümqi river, Tien Shan, China. The results show that the accumulated glacier mass balance has decreased by 9599 mm w.e., which is equivalent to about 10 m mean thickness reduction. The negative mass balance has been accentuated in recent years, with a mean mass balance during the period 1997–2002 of –739.6 mm a−1. The glacier mass balance shows a clear periodicity, with positive and negative alternations of 7 and 15 years during the past several decades. Annual mass balance shows a significant negative correlation with summer air temperature from June to August. It is influenced more by annual air temperature than by annual precipitation. The temperature increase preceded the precipitation increase as an influence on the mass balance. Furthermore, monthly mass balance shows a negative correlation with monthly air temperature, significant at the 99% confidence level in July and August. Monthly mass balance is negatively correlated with precipitation in May and August at the 95% confidence level, but positively and insignificantly correlated with precipitation in June and July. The negative relationship between mass balance and precipitation might be related to concurrent increases of precipitation and temperature.

Feature tracking, or patch intensity cross-correlation, is used to derive two-dimensional ice-surface velocity fields from 1day and 35 day repeat-pass European Remote-sensing Satellite (ERS) synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data covering a 500 km by 500 km area of central East Greenland. Over regions of fast ice flow, 35 day tracking yields only a slightly lower density of velocity measurements than 1day tracking, and both are broadly in agreement about the spatial pattern of ice velocity except at the glacier termini where tidal effects may dominate. This study suggests that SAR feature tracking may be used to routinely monitor ice-discharge velocities on a regional basis and thereby inform studies of regional mass balance.

The first ice-core record of both the Holocene and Wisconsin/Würm Late Glacial Stage (LGS) from the subtropics has been extracted from three ice cores to bedrock from the Dunde ice cap on the north-central Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Ice thicknesses at the ice-cap summit average 138 m, the bedrock surface is relatively flat, surface and basal temperatures are −7.3 and −4.7°C, respectively and the ice cap exhibits radial flow away from the summit dome. These records reveal a major change in the climate of the plateau ∼10 000 years ago and suggest that LGS conditions were colder, wetter and dustier than Holocene conditions. This is inferred from the more negative δ18O ratios, increased dust content, decreased soluble aerosol concentrations, and reduced ice-crystal sizes, which characterize the LGS part of the cores. Total β radioactivity from shallow ice cores indicates that over the last 24 years the average accumulation rate has been ∼400 mm a−1 at the summit. The ice cores have been dated using a combination of annual layers in the insoluble dust and δ18O in the upper sections of core, visible dust layers which are annual, and ice-flow modeling. The oxygen-isotope record which serves as a temperature proxy indicates that the last 60 years have been the warmest in the entire record.

Annual mass exchange differs between maritime and continental glaciers. A common characteristic of these glaciers in Asian high-mountain areas is that most of the annual accumulation occurs in summer. Since variations in mass balance of a summer-accumulation type of glacier are quite sensitive to variations in summer air temperature, shrinkages of such glaciers due to climate warming are predicted by the use of simplified experimental relations between air temperature and mass balance, disregarding variation of other climatic variables such as cloudiness and precipitation. The results predict that both small and large maritime glaciers are more sensitive to warming than a continental ice cap. A small glacier would disappear in a few decades if the air temperature persisted a few degrees above that of an equilibrium state of mass balance.

Changes of the equilibrium-line altitude (ELA) since the end of the Little Ice Age (LIA) in eastern Nepal have been studied using glacier inventory data. The toe-to-headwall altitude ratios (THARs) for individual glaciers were calculated for 1992, and used to estimate the ELA in 1959 and at the end of the LIA. THAR for debris-free glaciers is found to be smaller than for debris-covered glaciers. The ELAs for debris-covered glaciers are higher than those for debris-free glaciers in eastern Nepal. There is considerable variation in the reconstructed change in ELA (ΔELA) between glaciers within specific regions and between regions. This is not related to climate gradients, but results from differences in glacier aspect: southeast- and south-facing glaciers show larger ΔELAs in eastern Nepal than north- or west-facing glaciers. The data suggest that the rate of ELA rise may have accelerated in the last few decades. The limited number of climate records from Nepal, and analyses using a simple ELA–climate model, suggest that the higher rate of the ΔELA between 1959 and 1992 is a result of increased warming that occurred after the 1970s at higher altitudes in Nepal.

Models are developed to simulate changes in permafrost distribution and glacier size in mountain areas. The models exclusively consider equilibrium conditions. As a first application, the simplified assumption is used that one single parameter (mean annual air temperature) is changing.

Permafrost distribution patterns are estimated for a test area (Corvatsch-Furtschellas) and for the whole Upper Engadin region (eastern Swiss Alps) using a relation between permafrost occurrence as indicated by BTS (bottom temperature of the winter snow cover) measurements, potential direct solar radiation and mean annual air temperature. Glacier sizes were assessed in the same region with data from the World Glacier Inventory database. The simulations for the glaciers are based on the assumption that an increase or decrease in equilibrium-line altitude (ELA) would lead to a mass-balance change. Model calculations for potential future changes in ELA and mass balance include estimated developments of area, length and volume. Mass changes were also calculated for the time period 1850–1973 on the basis of measured cumulative length change, glacier length and estimated ablation at the glacier terminus.

For the time period since 1850, permafrost became inactive or disappeared in about 15% of the area originally underlain by permafrost in the whole Upper Engadin region, and mean annual glacier mass balance was calculated as −0.26 to −0.46 m w.e.a−1 for the larger glaciers in the same area. The estimated loss in glacier volume since 1850 lies between 55% and 66% of the original value. With an assumed increase in mean annual air temperature of +3°C, the area of supposed permafrost occurrence would possibly be reduced by about 65% with respect to present-day conditions and only three glaciers would continue to partially exist.

In order to estimate the contribution of the Antarctic Peninsula to global sea-level rise as a result of the observed warming in this region, the spatial extent of snow-melt-producing areas needs to be quantified. By using the dry-snow line derived from synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imagery as the uppermost limit of frequent or occasional surface melt, an estimation of the spatial extent of areas with non-zero ablation rates is facilitated. Three calibrated RADARSAT ScanSAR mosaics covering the northern Antarctic Peninsula were analyzed applying a threshold of –14 dB to identify the dry-snow line. The area of the dry-snow radar zone was determined to be 23300±2000 km2.Areas affected frequently or occasionally by snowmelt cover 85 000±9000 km2. In addition, the dry-snow line as derived from multi-temporal ERS-1/-2 imagery serves as an indicator of climate variability in the uppermost areas of polar glaciers and ice sheets. The upward shift of the dry-snow line between 1992 and 1998 on the eastern side of the Antarctic Peninsula at 68˚ S is interpreted as a direct response to the increasing number of high-temperature events during the 1991–2000 decade.

This study entails the parameterization, by means of a linear multiple-regression analysis, of the annual surface temperature and mass balance of Antarctica. The analysis was performed for the entire ice cap as well as for three separate regions: ice shelves (elevation less than 200 m), the interior (elevation above 1500 m), and the escarpment region in between. It was found that temperature can be parameterized very well in terms of elevation and latitude. The latitudinal gradient on the ice shelves can be explained by the super-adiabatic lapse rate along the surface and latitudinal temperature gradient in the interior, assuming adiabatic descent of air in the inversion layer from the interior region towards the coast and an axisymmetric spreading over the ice shelves. The surface mass balance can be parameterized reliably only in the interior, where it has a strong positive correlation with the saturation vapour pressure of the free atmosphere, and a significant correlation with the shape of the dome. The convex shape of the dome contributes to the mass balance by inducing subsidence of the relatively moist air of the free atmosphere into the inversion layer. This results in precipitation, as radiative cooling in the inversion exceeds adiabatic warming. An estimate is made of the annual horizontal and vertical advective velocities in the free atmosphere above the interior, based on regression results and a physical analysis of the precipitation processes in this region.

A temperature sensitivity analysis was performed for the current mass-balance distribution. For a 1 K. rise in surface temperature, the regression estimate of the increase in accumulation on the grounded ice sheet is equivalent to a rate of sea-level lowering of 0.2 mm a−1. This is about 30% less than estimates based on the current mass balance perturbated by the increase in saturation vapour pressure of the free atmosphere.

Fast ion chromatographic (FIC) analysis of the first European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica (EPICA) Dome C ice core (788m deep) was used to obtain high-resolution profiles for Cl–, NO3– and SO42–, spanning the last 45000 years. About 19 000 determinations for each component, with an average resolution of 4.0 cm, were performed in the field on continuously melted firn- and ice-core sections. the measured core covers the Holocene, the glacial/interglacial transition and about one-third of the last ice age. In the glacial period, mean concentrations of 93.8, 24.4 and 178.4 mg L–1 were calculated for Cl–, NO3– and SO42–, respectively. the mean levels significantly increase in the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), when these compounds reach values of 149.6, 53.9 and 219.3 mg L–1. During the glacial/interglacial transition, the mean concentrations quickly decrease reaching the typical Holocene values of 19.1, 12.9 and 93.3 mg L–1, for Cl–, NO3– and SO42–, respectively. All species settle on Holocene-like values about 4000 years before the beginning of the warm period (from the isotopic curve) showing a low (chloride) and no (nitrate and sulphate) sensitivity to Antarctic Cold Reversal climatic change. the sulphate decrease is consistent with the dilution factor due to the higher accumulation rate in the interglacial conditions (about 2.5), suggesting no significant change in source intensity or transport efficiency occurred for this component. on the contrary, the Holocene values for chloride and nitrate, being much lower than those measured in the LGM, suggest a source-intensity and transport-efficiency enhancement during the LGM and/or a more effective fixing of HCl and HNO3 in the snow layers through the neutralizing effect of the higher atmospheric dust load.

We compare a satellite-derived sea-ice motion dataset obtained from the US National Snow and Ice Data Center with daily ice drift by drifting buoys between 1989 and 2005. the satellite data were derived from daily composites of passive-microwave satellite measurements by means of a cross-correlation method and were supplemented with data from visible and thermal channels of the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer. Seasonal and interannual variations of the agreement between the two datasets are discussed. In addition, regional differences in the agreement and correlation coefficients of buoy- and satellite-derived drift components are analyzed. Results show that the overall drift regime can be well described by satellite-derived drift data but 71% of the retrieved drift velocities are lower than those observed by buoys. Nevertheless, correlation coefficients, r, between the two datasets are 0.587 for the zonal and 0.613 for the meridional drift component. the correlation coefficients between monthly averages of buoy- and satellite-derived zonal and meridional drift components are on average 25.7% and 16.4% lower in summer (October–February) than in winter (March–September), with the exception of January. In January, correlation coefficients are about 62.6% (zonal) and 66.5% (meridional) lower than in winter. Furthermore, deviations between zonal buoy- and satellite-derived drift are 80% larger in the second half than in the first half of the year. the observed yearly and regional averaged agreement between the two datasets depends strongly on the season when buoy data were collected and on the number of coincident buoy and satellite data, which was often very low.

Glacier surges tend to be initiated in relatively small regions, then propagate down-glacier, up-glacier and/or across-glacier. The processes controlling patterns and rates of surge propagation, however, are incompletely understood. In this paper, we focus on patterns of surge propagation in two confluent glaciers in Svalbard, and examine possible causes. One of these glaciers, Bakaninbreen, surged in 1985–95. The surge propagated ∽7 km down-glacier, but did not cross the medial moraine onto the other glacier, Paulabreen. When Paulabreen surged between 2003 and 2005, the surge wave travelled several km down-glacier, but its lateral boundary stayed very close to the medial moraine. The confluent glaciers formerly extended into a fjord, and bathymetric mapping and historical observations show that an active subglacial conduit has existed between Bakaninbreen and Paulabreen since at least the early 20th century. The existence of a persistent subglacial conduit below the medial moraine was confirmed when we entered and mapped a Nye channel at the confluence of Bakaninbreen and Paulabreen. We argue that the conduit acts as a barrier to surge propagation. If pressurized water below one branch of the glacier system reaches the conduit, water can be readily evacuated, preventing its propagation into the other branch.

Six snow-pit records recovered from Siple Dome, West Antarctica, during 1994 are used to study seasonal variations in chemical (major ion and H202), isotopic (deuterium) and physical stratigraphic properties during the 1988-94 period. Comparison of δD measurements and satellite-derived brightness temperature for the Siple Dome area suggests that most seasonal SD maxima occur within ±4 weeks of each 1 January. Several other chemical species (H2O2, non-sea-salt (nss) SO42-, methanesulfonic acid and NO3-) show coeval peaks with SD, together providing an accurate method for identifying summer accumulation. Sea-salt-derived species generally peak during winter/spring, but episodic input is noted throughout some years. No reliable seasonal signal is identified in species with continental sources (nssCa2+ nss Mg2+), NH4+ or nssCl-. Visible strata such as large depth-hoar layers (>5 cm) are associated with summer accumulation and its metamorphosis, but smaller hoar layers and crusts are more difficult to interpret. A multi-parameter approach is found to provide the most accurate dating of these snow-pit records, and is used to determine annual layer thicknesses at each site Significant spatial accumulation variability exists on an annual basis, but mean accumulation in the sampled 10 km2 grid for the 1988-94 period is fairly uniform.

For projecting future sea level, the mass-balance changes on Greenland and Antarctica are considered to be crucial. Promising tools for such estimates are general circulation models (GCM). Until recently, a major impediment was their coarse grid resolution (3°-6°) causing substantial uncertainties in the mass-balance calculations of the poorly resolved ice sheets. The present study is based on a new climate-change experiment of the highest resolution currently feasible (1.1 °) performed with the ECHAM4 T106 GCM, thereby increasing confidence in the projected mass-balance and sea-level changes. This new experiment, with doubled CO2 concentration, suggests that the mass gain in Antarctica due to increased accumulation exceeds the melt-induced mass loss in Greenland by a factor of three. The resulting mass-balance change on both ice sheets is equivalent to a net sea-level decrease of 0.6 mm a"1 under doubled CO2 conditions. This may compensate for a significant portion of the melt-induced sea-level rise from the smaller glaciers and ice caps, thus leaving thermal expansion as the dominant factor for sea-level rise over the next decades. This compensating effect, however, no longer applies should atmospheric CO2 concentration reach levels well above "doubled the present value". On the contrary, under these conditions, the greenhouse warming would become large enough to induce substantial melting also on the Antarctic ice sheet, thereby significantly accelerating global sea-level rise.

The thickness of supraglacial debris on the Khumbu Glacier, Nepal Himalaya, has been mapped by a combination of direct measurements and morphological and lithological studies. All three processes, englacial, supraglacial, and subglacial, must be considered in establishing the distribution of debris. Taking advantage of the lithological characteristics of the debris and their bedrock source, the denudation rate of the schistose bedrock was estimated to be about 0.02 mm a−1. A rough estimate of the production rate of supraglacial debris indicated that most of the present debris has formed since the last advance of the glacier, which took place a few hundred years B.P.

Maintaining ice-core quality through the brittle ice zone (BIZ) remains challenging for polar ice-core studies. At depth, increasing ice overburden pressurizes trapped air bubbles, causing fracture of cores upon exposure to atmospheric pressure. Fractured ice cores degrade analyses, reducing resolution and causing contamination. BIZ encounters at 18 sites across the Greenland, West and East Antarctic ice sheets are documented. The BIZ begins at a mean depth of 545 ± 162 m (1 standard deviation), extending to depths where ductile clathrate ice is reached: an average of 1132 ± 178 m depth. Ice ages in this zone vary with snow accumulation rate and ice thickness, beginning as young as 2 ka BP at Dye-3, Greenland, affecting ice >160 ka BP in age at Taylor Dome, Antarctica, and compromising up to 90% of retrieved samples at intermediate-depth sites. Effects of pressure and temperature on the BIZ are explored using modeled firn-column overburden pressure and borehole temperatures, revealing complex associations between firn densification and BIZ depth, and qualitatively supporting expected thinning of the BIZ at low ice temperatures due to shallower clathrate stability. Mitigating techniques for drilling, transport, sampling and analysis of brittle ice cores are also discussed.

The mass balance of the drainage area of Ice Stream B, West Antarctica, is calculated from new measurements of both discharge and accumulation rate. The discharge is computed for a transverse section near the lower end of the ice stream. Velocities have been obtained for 787 sites, using repeated photogrammetry, with ground control by Transit (doppler) satellite tracking. Thicknesses have been obtained by radio echo-sounding. The uncertainties in the discharge calculations are only about 3%. Net accumulation is derived from profiles of gross beta activity and from identification of the 1954–55 and 1964–65 nuclear-bomb strata. The major uncertainties are associated with the identification of the catchment area and with the accumulation rate. Accumulation rate varies locally, probably due to the interaction of katabatic wind with local slope, and many spot measurements are needed to obtain a good regional mean. The integrated input is 21.4 ± 5.2 km3 a−1, and the output is 30.0 ± 1.0 km3 a−1. The deficit is thus 8.6 ± 6.2 km3 a−1, which corresponds to a mean thinning rate of 0.06 m a−1 ± 0.04 m a−1. The difference from earlier estimates is mainly due to the refined catchment area and accumulation. The imbalance is significant but smaller than previously calculated: for balance the accumulation rate or catchment area would need to be about 39% larger or the ice stream velocity would need to be 28% slower.

Ice-stream tributaries connect the relatively slow-moving interior of the West Antarctic ice sheet (WAIS) with the fast-flowing Siple Coast ice streams. Basal water underneath these ice streams reduces basal resistance and enables the fast motion of the ice. Basal melting being the only source for this water, it is important to include the distribution of basal melting and freezing into numerical models assessing the stability of the WAIS. However, it is very difficult to constrain its distribution from existing field observations. Past borehole observations confirmed the presence of a wet bed at Byrd Station in the WAIS interior and at different locations within Siple Coast ice streams. However, the recent discovery of a 12–25m thick sediment-laden bubble-free basal ice layer at the UpC boreholes indicates that basal freezing is either currently occurring or had occurred upstream during the last glacial–interglacialcycle.We use a flowline model of ice thermodynamics to assess and quantify the spatial and temporal distribution of basal melting and freezing beneath Ice Stream C tributaries, taking into account the geothermal flux, shear heating and heat conduction away from the bed. Under the assumption that the ice was moving over a weak bed (τb =1–10 kPa) our model is able to reproduce a layer of frozen-on ice similar in thickness to the UpC “sticky spot” basal ice layer. Increased basal melting in the early Holocene possibly could have initiated the Holocene decay of the WAIS, whereas increased freezing rates over the past few thousand years could have decreased the amount of basal water in the system, resulting in a strengthening of the bed. This is consistent with current force-budget calculations for ice-stream tributaries and with observed stoppages and slow-downs of ice streams.