Palynological analyses performed on cores from the Norwegian Channel (Troll 8903) led to reconstruction of the late-glacial variations in sea-surface conditions using dinoflagellate cyst data and permitted direct correlation with the vegetation history of northwestern Europe derived from pollen assemblages. By ∼15,000 yr B.P., ice rapidly receded from the Norwegian shelf and relatively warm summer conditions prevailed in surface waters. A first late-glacial cooling marked by extensive seasonal sea–ice cover is dated at ca. 13,600–13,000 14C yr B.P., which coincides with the Oldest Dryas interval. During the Bølling–Allerød interval, a rise in sea-surface temperature both in February (up to 3°C) and August (up to 15°C) led to the establishment of ice-free conditions in the northern North Sea, while pollen data reveal a densification of the vegetation cover. The beginning of the Younger Dryas interval is marked by an increase in nonarboreal pollen input indicative of the opening of the forest vegetation cover, concomitant with a cooling of surface waters during winter and development of sea–ice cover. However, sea-surface conditions remained relatively warm in summer until about 10,300 yr B.P., when extremely cold conditions and extensive sea–ice cover developed (up to 7 months/yr). Improving conditions are recorded in surface waters by ∼10,100 yr B.P., a few hundred years before the development of forest cover onshore, as shown by the pollen record. Such a discrepancy between marine and terrestrial indicators at the end of Younger Dryas time suggests a delayed response of the vegetation to regional climate warming.

Scholars attribute the growth and decline of Classic period (AD 200–900) settlements in the semi-arid northern frontier zone of Mesoamerica to rainfall cycles that controlled the extent of arable land. However, there is little empirical evidence to support this claim. We present phytolith, organic carbon, and magnetic susceptibility analyses of a 4000-yr alluvial record of climate and human land use from the Malpaso Valley, the site of one such Classic frontier community. The earliest farming occupation is detected around 500 BC and appears related to a slight increase of aridity, similar to the level of the modern day valley. By AD 500, the valley's Classic period Mesoamerican settlements were founded under these same dry conditions, which continued into the Postclassic period. This indicates that the La Quemada occupation did not develop during a period of increased rainfall, but rather an arid phase. The most dramatic changes detected in the valley resulted from the erosion associated with Spanish Colonial grazing and deforestation that began in the 16th century. The landscape of the modern Malpaso Valley is thus primarily the product of a series of intense and rapid transformations that were concentrated within the last 400 yr.

The reconstruction of Holocene environmental changes in lakes on the plateau region of southwest China provides an understanding of how these ecosystems may respond to climate change. Fossil diatom assemblages were investigated from an 11,000-year lake sediment core from a deep, alpine lake (Lugu Hu) in southwest China, an area strongly influenced by the southwest (or the Indian) summer monsoon. Changes in diatom assemblage composition, notably the abundance of the two dominant planktonic species, Cyclotella rhomboideo-elliptica and Cyclostephanos dubius, reflect the effects of climate variability on nutrient dynamics, mediated via thermal stratification (internal nutrient cycling) and catchment-vegetation processes. Statistical analyses of the climateediatom interactions highlight the strong effect of changing orbitally-induced solar radiation during the Holocene, presumably via its effect on the lake’s thermal budget. In a partial redundancy analysis, climate (solar insolation) and proxies reflecting catchment process (pollen percentages, C/N ratio) were the most important drivers of diatom ecological change, showing the strong effects of climateecatchmentevegetation interactions on lake functioning. This diatom record reflects long-term ontogeny of the lake-catchment ecosystem and suggests that climatic changes (both temperature and precipitation) impact lake ecology indirectly through shifts in thermal stratification and catchment nutrient exports.

Vegetation changes during the late Quaternary in the dune fields of northern China are not well understood. We investigated organic carbon stable isotopic composition of surface soils, related mainly to the ratio of C3 and C4 plants, across a range of arid to subhumid climates in this region. Isotopic composition is weakly related to both temperature and moisture (multiple R2 = 0.53), with the highest δ13C (greatest C4 abundance) in the warm, subhumid Horqin dune field. In late Quaternary, eolian stratigraphic sections of the Mu Us and Horqin dune fields, but not in the much colder Otindag dune field, δ13C is higher in organic carbon from paleosols than in eolian sands. This contrast, most evident for paleosols recording a major early to middle Holocene phase of dune stabilization, is interpreted as evidence for expansion of C4 plants due to increased effective moisture, high temperature because of high insolation, and decreased disturbance related to eolian erosion and deposition.

An ∼8000-cal-yr stratigraphic record of vegetation change from the Sierra de Apaneca, El Salvador, documents a mid-Holocene warm phase, followed by late Holocene cooling. Pollen evidence reveals that during the mid-Holocene (∼8000–5500 cal yr B.P.) lowland tropical plant taxa were growing at elevations ∼200–250 m higher than at present, suggesting conditions about 1.0°C warmer than those prevailing today. Cloud forest genera (Liquidambar, Juglans, Alnus, Ulmus) were also more abundant in the mid-Holocene, indicating greater cloud cover during the dry season. A gradual cooling and drying trend began by ∼5500 cal yr B.P. culminating in the modern forest composition by ∼3500 cal yr B.P. A rise in pollen from weedy plant taxa associated with agriculture occurred ∼5000 cal yr B.P. and pollen from Zea first appeared in the record at ∼4440 cal yr B.P. Human impacts on local vegetation remained high throughout the late Holocene, but decreased abruptly following the Tierra Blanca Joven (TBJ) eruption of Volcán Ilopango at ∼1520 cal yr B.P. The past 1500 years are marked by higher lake levels and periodic depositions of exogenous inorganic sediments, perhaps indicating increased climatic variability.

Climate change during the Quaternary played an important role in the distribution of extant plants. Herein, cone scales of Cedrus (Pinaceae) were uncovered from the Upper Pliocene Sanying Formation, Longmen Village, Yongping County of Yunnan Province in southwestern China. Detailed comparisons show that these fossils all belong to the genus Cedrus (Pinaceae), and a new species is proposed, Cedrus angusta sp. nov. This find expands the known distribution of Cedrus during the Late Pliocene to Yunnan, where the genus no longer exists in natural forests. Based on the analysis of reconstructed Neogene climate data, we suggest that the intensification of the East Asian winter monsoon during the Quaternary may have dramatically increased seasonality and given rise to a much drier winter in Yunnan. Combined with information on Cedrus fossil records and its seed physiology, we conclude that the intensification of a drier climate after the Late Pliocene may have prevented the survival of Cedrus seedlings, leading to the eventual disappearance of Cedrus in western Yunnan. This study indicates that the topography in southwestern China acted as a vital refuge for many plants during the Quaternary, but that other species gradually disappeared due to the intensification of the monsoonal climate.

The third millennium BP crisis of the central African rainforest is not sufficiently understood. The low resolution of most pollen profiles and a large plateau of the calibration curve aggravate the exact dating of the event, and its causal climatic parameters are debated. We present a high-resolution pollen profile from the swamp site Nyabessan in the southern Cameroonian rainforest, covering the period 3100-2300 cal yr BP. Between 3100 and 2500 cal yr BP, the climate was favourable for a regional evergreen forest with Caesalpiniaceae and Lophira and a local Raphia swamp forest. Around 2500/2400 cal yr BP, a significant decrease of mature forest and swamp forest taxa and an increase of pioneers indicate that the rain forest was seriously disturbed and replaced by secondary formations. The dominance of Trema orientalis, a pioneer well adapted to seasonal desiccation, points to a much more accentuated seasonality after 2500 cal yr BP, which seems to be linked to a southwards shift of the ITCZ during the northern hemisphere winter months. We propose that the rain forest crisis between 2500 and 2200 cal BP created favourable conditions for farming and paved the way for a major expansion of Bantu speaking populations.

We report the first evidence of Hg content in marine sediments changing in connection with the climate-driven changes in ocean stratification during the Quaternary Period based on core samples from ODP Hole 1006A off Great Bahama Bank in the Caribbean Sea. The Hg content ranged from 5.9 to 60.7 ng/g with an average value of 33.1 ng/g during 350 and 1330 ka and changed inversely with δ18Oplanktonic values. The change in Hg content was positively correlated with total organic carbon (TOC) content, indicating connections between the δ15Norg and δ13Corg values of organic matter and the absolute abundance of a deep-dwelling calcareous nannoplankton (Florisphaera profunda). The marine Hg is thought to have been incorporated into the organic matter produced by deep-dwelling phytoplankton. Based on these results, we propose a mechanism by which marine Hg can collect in a thermocline formed in the stratified lower photic zone. Mercury content and nannoplankton assemblage in marine sediment provide information about the extent of stratification of the oceanic photic zone and the role of surface- and deep-dwelling phytoplankton in producing marine organic matter and changing its δ15Norg and δ13Corg values.

The incidence of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) has been reported to exhibit seasonal variation. However, the impact of diurnal temperature range (DTR) on RSV has not been investigated. After acquiring data related to cases of RSV and weather parameters of DTR in Fukuoka, Japan, between 2006 and 2012, we used negative binomial generalized linear models and distributed lag nonlinear models to assess the possible relationship between DTR and RSV cases, adjusting for confounding factors. Our analysis revealed that the weekly number of RSV cases increased with a relative risk of 3·30 (95% confidence interval 1·65–6·60) for every 1°C increase in DTR. Our study provides quantitative evidence that the number of RSV cases increased significantly with increasing DTR. We suggest that preventive measures for limiting the spread of RSV should be considered during extended periods of high DTR.

The evolution processes and forcing mechanisms of the Horqin dunefield in northern China are poorly understood. In this study, systematic OSL dating of multiple sites is used together with pollen analysis of a representative section in order to reconstruct the evolution of the dunefield since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Our results show that there was extensive dune mobilization 25–10 ka, transition to stabilization 10–8 ka, considerable dune stabilization 8–3 ka, and multiple episodes of stabilization and mobilization after 3 ka. Comparison of dune evolution of the dunefields in northern China during the Holocene showed that Asian monsoon and resultant effective moisture have played an important role in the evolution of dunefields at the millennial time scale. Further analysis indicated that the dune evolution in the Horqin dunefield before 3 ka was synchronous with climatic changes. However, increasing human activity has impacted dune evolution during the last 3 ka.

Hyposidra talaca (Walk.) is a major pest of tea (Camellia sinensis L.) in Northeastern (NE) India. The present study examined (1) the likely causes of expansion of H. talaca to tea from its ancestral home of sal forests, and (2) the anti-predatory mechanisms that helped it to build up in tea plantations. Studies were made on the role of the regulating agents of the eggs and caterpillars of the pest and responses of caterpillars to different predator-like stimuli (predatory wasps, ants and birds) and mechanical vibrations. Eggs collected from the fields were reared in the laboratory to study egg parasitization and monitored in the field to study the role of natural predators. Prolonged drought and inconsistent rainfall influenced the range expansion of H. talaca. In tea plantations, female moths preferred to conceal the eggs in the scaly bark of shade trees. Excluding woodpeckers, H. talaca eggs were scarcely attacked by other natural enemies. The caterpillars dropped off the plant in response to potential predators and assumed a deimatic ‘U’ or ‘S’ shape, and remained motionless when stimulated by mechanical vibration. This study suggests that the lack of specialized natural enemies helped H. talaca to build up in the tea plantations of NE India in a short period of time.

The temperature evolution over the past 40 years in the Bay of Biscay (North-East Atlantic) is investigated from an in situ data analysis, completed with a satellite SST (Sea Surface Temperature) analysis over the last 20 years. The in situ dataset is an interannual version of the BoByClim climatology, covering the Bay of Biscay area with a 10-km horizontal resolution and a 5-m vertical step. The satellite dataset is the European COastral Sea Operational Observing and Forcast System Program (ECOOP) daily analysis, covering the IBIROOS (Iberian-Biscay-Irish Sea) area with a 4-km resolution. The study area (43°N-50°N/12°W-1°W) extends over the intersection of the domains covered by these two analyses. In the 0–200 m layer of this domain, a heat budget has been computed from an ocean circulation model over the period 1965-2004. Heat is essentially imported from the west by the North Atlantic Drift, then exported southward and northward, or transferred downward into deeper layers. The annual average of air-sea flux is weak, with a zero isoline crossing the domain from the northwest to the southeast. Ocean and atmosphere, forming a coupled system, have comparable contributions and may both result in a heat sink or source. At the interannual scale, variability is mainly controlled by the air-sea flux, with a secondary contribution from oceanic transport. A strong warming of $\sim $ 0.2 °C/decade for the period 1965-2004 is apparent from the surface down to the 200-m depth. The decadal evolution is consistent with several analyses over the North Atlantic. Meanwhile, warming is approximately twice faster than in the whole basin. This trend is not steady, as a cooling period occurred until the early 1970's, and the temperature increase has been significantly stronger during the last 20 years ( $\sim $ 0.3 °C/decade between 0 and 100 m, from 1986 to 2005). The trend and the interannual variability are maximal over the northern part of the shelf. The typical duration of interannual anomalies is two years and their penetration depth is ~100 m, although they occasionally exceed 200 m. The interseasonal anomalies are also stronger within the mixed layer (root-mean-square, RMS = 0.6 °C at the surface) than below (RMS = 0.3 °C at 100 m). Their geographic distribution is radically different between the surface and the deep levels. A seasonal dependence of the warming rate is evident in the upper layer, as the temperature trend is stronger in summer than in winter (by a factor of 2 at the surface). Some of the potential implications for the ecosystem are discussed, particularly in terms of species distribution and dynamics of species exploited by fisheries.

Archival rainfall data are used to investigate changes in drought frequency and severity in Sabah and other parts of northern Borneo since the late nineteenth century. Two measures of drought severity are used: drought duration (given by the number of consecutive months with less than 100 mm rain); and drought intensity (indexed by the cumulative rainfall deficit below 100 mm per month of a drought sequence). Within northern Borneo dry periods are very short (>3 months) and infrequent in Sarawak, south-western Sabah, Brunei and central and western Kalimantan; droughts occur seasonally, but are comparatively short in north-western Sabah; droughts are less frequent) but more severe in eastern Sabah and parts of eastern Kalimantan. In coastal Sabah and Brunei, there has been a statistically significant increase in the frequency and severity of droughts since the late 1960s. At Sandakan, two drought-prone epochs in 1877–1915 and 1968–92 (each experiencing five droughts of at least 4 months duration) are identified, separated by a 52-year period that was nearly drought-free. At Sandakan also, the ecologically damaging 1982–3 drought was neither as long or severe as those of 1903 and 1915. Links with El Niño-Southern Oscillation events are found to be not as strong as previous studies have suggested. Possible implications of the spatial and temporal patterns in drought magnitude-frequency for differences in tropical rain forest character within the region are discussed.

Modern agriculture has done an excellent job producing food, feed and fiber for the world's growing population, but there are concerns regarding its continued ability to do so, especially with the world's limited resources. To adapt to these challenges, future agricultural systems will need to be diverse, complex and integrated. Integrated agricultural systems have many of these properties, but how they are shaped by the environment and how they shape the environment is still unclear. In this paper, we used commonly available county-level data and literature review to answer two basic questions. First, are there environmental limitations to the adoption of integrated agricultural systems? Second, do integrated agricultural systems have a lower environmental impact than more specialized systems? We focused on the Great Plains to answer these questions. Because of a lack of farm-level data, we used county-level surrogate indicators. The indicators selected were percent land base in pasture and crop diversity along a precipitation gradient in North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska and Kansas. Evaluated over the four-state region, neither indicator had a strong relationship with precipitation. In the Dakotas, both percent pasture land and crop diversity suggested greater potential for agricultural integration at the mid-point of the precipitation gradient, but there was no clear trend for Kansas and Nebraska. Integrated agricultural systems have potential to reduce the impact of agriculture on the environment despite concerns with nutrient management. Despite advantages, current adoption of integrated agricultural systems appears to be limited. Future integrated agricultural systems need to work with environmental limitations rather than overcoming them and be capable of enhancing environmental quality.

South Georgia is a highly glacierized island with a range of glacier types including corrie, valley and tidewater ice bodies. Glaciologically, it occupies a strategic location between South America and the Antarctic Peninsula and is potentially an important locality for establishing glacier-climate relationships in the region. Baseline surveys of ice front positions and ice surface profiles have been repeated to determine recent changes in several glacier types. Corrie and small, land-based valley glaciers have continued to thin and recede during the period of study, following an advance during the 1930s. Their behaviour primarily reflects the effects of seasonal temperature variations in controlling net balances, and particularly the climatic warming since 1950. The larger valley and tidewater glaciers display a lagged response and in the 1970s were at their most advanced positions since the Little Ice Age of the 17–19th centuries. However, in the last few years they too have commenced to thin and recede.

Freshwater drainage systems, fed by melting of nearby inland ice and perennial snowdrifts, exist in the south-eastern part of arid, ice-free, coastal Vestfold Hills. Most important is the complex Druzhby system. Intriguing questions arise about the conditions controlling its seasonal development and about the consequences of possible changes of those conditions. A water-balance was calculated for 1990–91. The system went through four seasonal phases of which only one displayed a fully developed external drainage. Evidently, the relative duration of those phases can vary considerably from one year to another. The system depends critically on the water supply from ice-dammed Chelnok Lake, which could readily be drained by a minor retreat of Sørsdal Glacier. Exposed to excessive evaporation, the large Crooked Lake would then become internally drained and reach a new equilibrium in ∼830 years. A Crooked Lake sediment core can be interpreted as suggesting this occurred during the Holocene. The idea, inferred from striae, of a late Holocene Chelnok Glaciation reaching the northern shores of Crooked Lake is questioned. Instead, it is suggested that the Chelnok striae originate from local basal melting of the ice sheet draining southward into a deglaciated Sørsdal trough. At present, runoff is determined by opposing short and long-term climatic influences.

Les variations passées du carbone-14 atmosphérique peuvent être reconstruites sur les derniers 50 000 ans par l'étude des différences entre âges carbone-14 et âges calendaires. Liées en premier lieu à la modulation géomagnétique du taux de production du 14C par le rayonnement cosmique et aux variations d'origine climatique du stock de 14C océanique, ces variations ont atteint un facteur 2 au début du paléolithique supérieur. Des variations de même amplitude ont été provoquées par les essais nucléaires militaires des années 50 et 60. La contribution cumulée de l'industrie nucléaire depuis ses débuts jusqu'à nos jours est de l'ordre d'un centième des quantités relâchées dans l'environnement par les retombées des explosions nucléaires atmosphériques. Représentant annuellement 14 % du taux de production naturel de 14C, cette contribution au rapport isotopique 14C/12C est actuellement contrebalancée par l'effet de dilution du 14C par les émissions de CO2 fossile (effet Suess).

Changes in the production and turnover of roots in forests and grasslands in response to rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations, elevated temperatures, altered precipitation, or nitrogen deposition could be a key link between plant responses and longer-term changes in soil organic matter and ecosystem carbon balance. Here we summarize the experimental observations, ideas, and new hypotheses developed in this area in the rest of this volume. Three central questions are posed. Do elevated atmospheric CO2, nitrogen deposition, and climatic change alter the dynamics of root production and mortality? What are the consequences of root responses to plant physiological processes? What are the implications of root dynamics to soil microbial communities and the fate of carbon in soil? Ecosystem-level observations of root production and mortality in response to global change parameters are just starting to emerge. The challenge to root biologists is to overcome the profound methodological and analytical problems and assemble a more comprehensive data set with sufficient ancillary data that differences between ecosystems can be explained. The assemblage of information reported herein on global patterns of root turnover, basic root biology that controls responses to environmental variables, and new observations of root and associated microbial responses to atmospheric and climatic change helps to sharpen our questions and stimulate new research approaches. New hypotheses have been developed to explain why responses of root turnover might differ in contrasting systems, how carbon allocation to roots is controlled, and how species differences in root chemistry might explain the ultimate fate of carbon in soil. These hypotheses and the enthusiasm for pursuing them are based on the firm belief that a deeper understanding of root dynamics is critical to describing the integrated response of ecosystems to global change.