This research empirically establishes and interprets the hypothesis that the relationship between population aging and inventive activity is hump-shaped. We estimate a reduced form, hump-shaped relationship in a panel of 33 OECD countries over the period 1960–2012, as well as in a panel of 248 NUTS 2 regions in Europe over the period 2001–2012. The increasing part of the hump may be associated with various channels including the acknowledgement that population aging requires inventive activity to guarantee current and future standards of living, or the observation that older educated workers are more innovative than their young peers. The decreasing part may reflect the tendency of aging societies to lose dynamism and the willingness to take risks.

This paper investigates patterns of variation in economic growth across and within countries using a time-varying transition matrix Markov-switching approach. The model developed here explains the dynamics of growth based on a collection of different states that countries pass into and out of over time; in addition, these states are characterized by their own submodels and growth patterns. The transition matrix among the different states varies over time—depending on the conditioning variables of each country—with a linear dynamic for each state. We develop a generalization of Diebold's EM algorithm and estimate a sample model in a panel with a transition matrix conditioned on institutional quality and the investment level. We find three states of growth: stable growth, miraculous growth, and stagnation. The results show that institutional quality is an important determinant of long-term growth, whereas the investment level plays a variety of roles: it contributes positively in countries with high-quality institutions but is of little relevance in countries with medium- or low-quality institutions.

Galor and Ryder [Journal of Economic Theory 49 (1989), 360–375] establish conditions for the existence of equilibrium in a Diamond-type overlapping-generations (OLG) model. Although theoretically appealing, these conditions are implicit and not convenient to apply. This paper provides explicit and easily applied conditions for the existence and uniqueness of steady-state equilibrium, with which one only needs to check the first derivatives of the production and utility functions and their interactions, with no need to solve the optimization problem. Our theorems on the existence and uniqueness of steady-state equilibrium can be applied to a larger class of OLG models that do not require second-order differentiability of the production and utility functions. We present examples to show how to check the existence and uniqueness of equilibrium.

We incorporate emission into a general equilibrium model with rich dispersion in productivity among monopolistically competitive plants. Emission is modeled as a by-product of goods production. An abatement technology is available to the plants for reducing emission. We compare an emission tax with an emission intensity standard. The tax is shown to dominate the standard in welfare for all values of market power if either productivity is sufficiently dispersed or the abatement technology is not effective. On the other hand, if productivity dispersion is small and the abatement technology is effective, there exists sufficiently strong market power so that the standard will dominate the tax in welfare. Even in the case where the standard unambiguously induces a higher output of dirty goods than the tax, the general equilibrium framework is necessary for ranking the two policies in welfare.

James Heckman is one of the most important and influential scholars to have graced the economics profession. His work is deeply rooted at the intersection of economic theory and empirical microeconomics, and he has made significant contributions to the study of labor economics, microeconometrics, and the use of micro data in macroeconomic analysis. Heckman's work is motivated by the scientific method, in which theory is held up to the scrutiny of the data and empirical analysis is informed by economic theory. During the course of his work, he has made lasting contributions to the study of sample selection bias, duration analysis, heterogeneity, and treatment effects in microeconometrics. In labor economics, he has applied these econometric methods to the study of labor supply and life-cycle dynamic models of unemployment, wage growth, and skill formation. In addition, he is the leading scholar on the evaluation of active labor market programs. As an applied microeconomist, one cannot do research on labor supply, sample selection, duration models, or life-cycle dynamics without encountering Jim Heckman's work.

This paper investigates the impact of anticipated inflation on features of the business cycle in the presence of recursive but intertemporally dependent tastes. Intertemporal dependence is induced by the presence of a variable or endogenous individual rate of time preference. Quantitative experiments indicate that variability in the rate of time preference can enhance the contribution of monetary shocks to the fluctuations of real variables. Another implication of the variable-time-preference model is that, unlike the fixed time preference model, the business cycle features in high inflation and low inflation economies can be very different. The contribution of monetary shocks to fluctuations increases partly because endogenous time preference accentuates inflation-tax effects, which are already present in the standard framework because of the presence of cash-in-advance constraints. The change in the relative role of monetary shocks is also related to how variable time preference alters the effects of technology shocks, which can be quantitatively or qualitatively different in comparison to the standard model, depending on the parameters of the model.

We develop a classical macroeconomic model to examine the growth and distributional consequences of education. Contrary to the received wisdom, we show that human capital accumulation is not necessarily growth-inducing and inequality-reducing. Expansive education policies may foster growth and reduce earning inequalities between workers, but only by transferring income from workers to capitalists. Further, the overall effect of an increase in education depends on the actual characteristics of the educational system and on the nature of labor market relations. Although the primary aim of the paper is theoretical, we argue that the model identifies some causal mechanisms that can contribute to shed light on recent stylized facts on growth, distribution, and education for the USA.

We study an OLG model with child policies and a PAYG pension with endogenous retirement and fertility. The result of the planned economy is compared to the decentralized competitive equilibrium deriving optimal policies. We show that in the presence of a PAYG pension system, the optimal policy mix includes an education subsidy and a subsidy for the supply of labor in old age. Fertility should be taxed or incentivized depending on whether there is full or partial retirement, and on the parameters. We focus on the parameter reflecting the deterioration of human capital and show that a child tax may be required.

Against the background of the emergence of macroeconomic imbalances within the European Monetary Union (EMU), we investigate in this paper the macroeconomic consequences of cross-border banking in monetary unions such as the Euro area. For this purpose, we incorporate a union-wide banking sector along the lines in an otherwise standard two-region monetary union DSGE model, accounting for borrowing constraints of entrepreneurs and impatient households and an internal constraint on the bank's leverage ratio. We illustrate in particular how rule-of-thumb lending standards based on the macroeconomic performance of the core region within the monetary union can translate into destabilizing spill-over effects into the other region, resulting in an overall higher macroeconomic volatility. Thereby, we demonstrate a channel through which the financial sector may have exacerbated the emergence of macroeconomic imbalances within the EMU. This effect may be mitigated by macroprudential policies, where especially policies that force the bank's lending standards to be less procyclical prove to be effective in stabilizing output in both regions of the monetary union.

Although a realistic characterization of the production function is critical to macroeconomic analysis, estimating the function's characteristics is hampered by both data limitations and methodological difficulties. In this paper, I develop a new empirical strategy for estimating the CES production function with biased technical change. The proposed method extends the control function approach to the CES specification to address endogeneity concerns and is able to retrieve sector-specific and time-varying estimates of technical change. Using data from U.S. manufacturing industries, I find evidence that (i) the production technology exhibits nonincreasing returns to scale, (ii) the elasticity of substitution between capital and labor is below unity, and (iii) technical change is generally labor-augmenting along the balanced growth path.

This study introduces financial intermediaries into the Schumpeterian growth model developed by Aghion et al. (2005, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 120, pp. 173–222). They collect deposits from households, provide funds for entrepreneurial projects, and monitor the entrepreneurs. I consider an economy with moral hazard problems: entrepreneurs can hide the result of a successful innovation and thereby avoid repaying financial intermediaries if the latter do not monitor entrepreneurial performance. I analyze the effects of financial intermediaries' activities on technological progress and economic growth in such an economy. I show that financial intermediaries need to monitor entrepreneurs in an economy where the legal protection of creditors is not strong enough. Such monitoring can resolve the moral hazard problem; however, it does not always promote technological innovation, because it could increase the cost of entrepreneurial innovation and thus reduce the amount invested for innovation. I also examine how monitoring by financial intermediaries affects the welfare of individuals through the stringency of financial markets.

The U.S. tax system currently provides an incentive for individuals to obtain medical insurance through their employers. This unique tax treatment is widely excoriated as resulting in high costs and distorting consumption decisions. To study this issue, we develop a general equilibrium search model with endogenous health accumulation and a unique feature of the U.S. tax code, which exempts employer-provided medical benefits from taxation, to jointly account for the U.S. long-term unemployment rate and medical expenditure-to-aggregate consumption ratio. Through various counterfactual experiments, we find that (1) eliminating the employment-based tax subsidy lowers medical expenditure but, via a general equilibrium labor market effect, increases unemployment and lowers output, and contrary to conventional wisdom, lowers welfare; (2) having government raise taxes to finance the provision of medical care substantially increases the unemployment rate, while reducing income and welfare.

We investigate the international linkages of uncertainty associated with the long-term movements of inflation. In the first step, we establish that inflation uncertainty in the G7 is intertwined, and the degree of synchronization has increased during the recent two decades. We also document a rise in inflation uncertainty accompanying the global financial crisis. Based on a factor–structural vector autoregression, we provide evidence of a common international shock. We disclose that this shock is closely related to oil and commodity price uncertainty, and it explains large parts of the recent rise in inflation uncertainty. Moreover, increased synchronization can be explained by greater relative importance of this global shock. We also document that inflation uncertainty has become more stable, because domestic shocks translate less extensively into individual economies. This finding lends support to the “good policy” hypothesis.

This paper considers differential fertility and analyzes how the fertility of people caught in poverty disturbs their escape from poverty. For escape from poverty, it is necessary that the average human capital stock exceed certain thresholds before the ratio of the number of poor to rich people increases more rapidly than the human capital level of rich people. Thus, the escape depends on a race between the accumulation of human capital by the rich and the accumulation of children by the poor. A high initial ratio of the number of poor to rich people would imply persistent poverty.

We study optimal taxation when jobs are found through a social network. The network determines employment, which workers may influence by engaging in social activities. The network parameters play an important role in determining the economy's employment level and the optimal income tax. The optimal labor income tax depends on both the traditional intensive margin of labor supply and a new extensive margin that depends on the structure of the social network. Social activities that promote social connections are instrumental to acquiring job information; taxation thus discourages both social activities and labor supply, reducing employment. Labor taxes vary positively with labor supply and negatively with employment. When networking is absent, taxes are higher and the economy's employment rate is lower. The optimal capital tax rate is zero, independent of labor market frictions. Social networking reduces job search frictions and is welfare-enhancing.

We investigate the effects of monetary policy shocks in the new European Union (EU) member states the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia. In contrast to existing studies, we explicitly account for external developments in European Monetary Union (EMU) countries and in other acceding countries. We do so by using factor-augmented vector autoregressive models that employ information from nonstationary factor time series. One set of VAR models includes factors obtained from a large cross section of time series from EMU countries, whereas another set includes factors obtained from other acceding countries. We find that including EMU factors does change impulse response patterns in some but not all acceding countries. In contrast, including factors from other acceding countries leads to substantial changes in impulse responses and to economically more plausible results. Overall, our analysis highlights that taking external economic developments properly into account is crucial for the analysis of monetary policy in the new EU member states.

We consider a DSGE model with monopolistically competitive banks together with endogenous firms' entry. We find that our model implies higher volatilities of both real and financial variables than those implied by a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with a monopolistic banking sector and a fixed number of firms. The response of the economic activity is also more persistent in response to all shocks. Furthermore, we show that inefficient banks enhance the endogenous propagation of the shocks with respect to a model where banks compete under perfect competition and can fully ensure against the risk of firms' default.

This paper directly shows the equivalence between the existence of stationary monetary equilibrium and the conditional Pareto suboptimality of the initial endowment in a stochastic overlapping generations model. Especially, it gives short and constructive proofs for existence and uniqueness.

We estimate the effects of anticipated and unanticipated monetary policy changes on jump variation by employing high-frequency nonparametric jump detection methods. We find that anticipated changes in the Fed funds have no significant effect on jumps. In contrast, jump variation in the price of financial market data increases with monetary policy surprises. We document evidence of asymmetries in the response of jumps to monetary policy changes. Monetary policy surprises and positive changes in the Fed target rate induce increments in jumps. Similar results exist in the sector analysis. In addition, this study uncovers no evidence of endogenous response between jumps and monetary policy surprises.

This paper investigates, in the case of the euro area, the standard assumption that the liquidity trap steady state, which arises from the existence of the zero lower bound on the nominal interest rate, is locally unstable. We show that the policy function of the European Central Bank (ECB) is described by a nonlinear Taylor rule. Then, using our estimations, we show that around the liquidity trap steady state the equilibrium is locally determinate for most plausible parameter values. Finally, we find that an inflation shock is more efficient than a demand shock to escape the liquidity trap steady state.