This paper studies the effects of China’s one-child policy on human capital and income. I build and calibrate a quantitative OLG model with intergenerational transfers. The model generates a quantity–quality trade-off, so a restriction on fertility leads to an increase in human capital, and higher human capital then contributes to higher individual income and welfare. Calibrating the model to match survey data on urban households, I find that the one-child policy increases the human capital of affected agents by about 47% relative to a counterfactual with no fertility restrictions. However, the effect on aggregate income is negative as the size of the labor force falls.

This paper investigates how the different food aid programs affect economic development via their effect on the parental trade-off between the number of children and the investment in each child's human capital. This is done in an OLG framework where parents decide on the number of children and the nutrition and secondary schooling of each child. Primary schooling is mandatory. Providing school meals locks countries with no children attending secondary schooling into poverty by reducing the private (nutrition) cost per child. In countries where parents find it optimal to enroll children in secondary schooling, food aid increases the marginal benefit of schooling. Consequently, school feeding programs are conducive to economic development in these countries. If food aid is in the form of a food price subsidy, we show that child nutrition and thus children's human capital increase unambiguously. Although fertility and schooling are not directly affected, a sufficiently high subsidy rate will induce parents to begin to enroll children into secondary schooling by the assumed complementarity between nutrition and schooling in the human capital production function. If the food aid program provides a fixed amount of food per child, this decreases the marginal benefit of parental nutritional investments; therefore, it leads to higher fertility and to lower total provision of nutrition per child.

This paper develops an endogenous growth model with industrial transformation and a stylized foreign expert-based internalization advantage framework to determine the composition of heterogeneous foreign multinationals in a developing host economy. A key feature of the model is the introduction of a dichotomous relationship between domestic and foreign firms, where the latter perceives heterogeneity among the productivity of domestic workers. This results in the skills acquisition decision and foreign subsidiaries' operational mode choice to be determined along the same ability distribution of the host economy. This subsequently determines the shares of the different types of multinationals in a host economy. Parameterized for Malaysia, policy experiments are conducted. A balanced investment liberalization measure for all foreign firms is found to outperform measure targeting only selected types, though there is a threshold doing-business cost value below which such a standalone Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)-promoting policy does not generate positive growth effect. This then calls for composite program that maximizes the policy complementarities between human capital and FDI-promoting policies.

The conventional dependency ratio based on cohort-invariant cutoff points could overstate the true burden of population aging. Using optimal cohort-varying years of schooling and retirement age in a life-cycle model, we propose a modified definition of dependency ratio. We compare the proposed economic-demographic dependency ratio (EDDR) with the conventional definition and find that the conventional dependency ratio of the USA is projected to increase by 0.105 from 2010 to 2060, which is an over-projection of 86% when compared with the projected increase of 0.015 in the EDDR over the same period. Sensitivity analysis suggests that our finding is quite robust to reasonable changes in parameter values (except for one parameter), and the magnitude of over-projection ranges mainly from 0.079 to 0.102 (i.e., 75% to 97%). We follow the well-established Lee–Carter model to forecast stochastic mortality and employ the method of expanding duration to decompose the sources of over-projection.

This paper compares different implementations of monetary policy in a new-Keynesian setting. We can show that a shift from Ramsey optimal policy under short-term commitment (based on a negative feedback mechanism) to a Taylor rule (based on a positive feedback mechanism) corresponds to a Hopf bifurcation with opposite policy advice and a change of the dynamic properties. This bifurcation occurs because of the ad hoc assumption that interest rate is a forward-looking variable when policy targets (inflation and output gap) are forward-looking variables in the new-Keynesian theory.

A simple asset pricing model with both endogenous stock market participation and subjective risk can explain the negative cross-country correlation between participation rates and the volatility of excess returns, along with the time-varying participation rates in the data. Belief-driven learning dynamics can explain the interplay between participation rates, subjective risk, and stock price volatility. When agents adaptively learn about the risk and return, my model generates 25% of the excess volatility observed in US stock prices, while also matching key moments. With learning about risk, excess volatility of stock prices is driven by fluctuations in the participation rate that arise because agents’ risk estimates vary with prices. I find that learning about risk is quantitatively more important than learning about returns.

This paper focuses on the question of what monetary and fiscal policy can do and should do in a “fiscal dominance” world. I first highlight that both “amplification” and “fiscal cushion” effects are always at work jointly in determining the evolution of inflation. I find the threshold of maturity of government bonds beyond which more aggressive monetary policy dampens inflation volatility is three quarters. In addition, I conduct welfare analysis to quantitatively evaluate the costs and benefits brought by long-term debt. My results show that the threshold of government debt maturity above which an aggressive monetary policy improves welfare is eight quarters. More importantly, I characterize optimal monetary and fiscal policy using simple and implementable rules. My results indicate an optimal monetary and fiscal combination calls for an aggressive response in both rules. Finally, I find that optimized simple monetary-fiscal rule is significantly welfare inferior to the Ramsey optimal policy.

This paper proposes the volatility of sovereign credit default swaps (CDS) as a measurement of economic uncertainty. Sovereign CDS provide protection against losses from sovereign defaults and are traded for almost all countries by the world’s largest financial institutions. The premium for protection, the so-called CDS spread, depends on a country’s economic conditions and provides an outside view from global financial institutions. Our empirical results show that the volatility of sovereign CDS spreads contains information about economic uncertainty. For a broad panel of 16 countries, we find that sovereign CDS volatility shares directional information with popular news-based economic policy uncertainty (EPU) indices. Using Bayesian panel vector autoregressions, we find similar responses of output and unemployment to shocks in CDS volatility, equity volatility, and EPU. Our results further suggest that sovereign CDS volatility primarily reflects economic and financial uncertainty rather than political uncertainty.

In a second-best optimal growth setup with only factor taxes, it is in general optimal to fully replace capital by labor income taxation in the long run. We revisit this important issue by developing a human-capital-based endogenous growth model with frictional labor search, allowing each firm to create multiple vacancies and each worker to determine market participation. We find that the conventional efficient bargaining condition is necessary but not sufficient for achieving constrained social optimality. We then conduct tax incidence exercises in balanced growth by calibrating to the U.S. economy with a preexisting 20% flat tax on capital and labor income. Our quantitative results suggest that, due to a dominant channel via the interactions between vacancy creation and market participation, it is optimal to switch only partially from capital to labor taxation in a benchmark economy where human-capital formation depends on both physical and human-capital stocks. This main finding is robust even along the transition with time-varying factor tax rates. Moreover, our quantitative analysis under alternative setups suggests that while endogenous human capital and labor-market frictions are essential for obtaining a positive optimal capital tax, endogenous leisure, nonlinear human-capital accumulation and endogenous growth are not crucial.

This paper examines the relationships of income with education and health using heterogeneous panel cointegration techniques to account for the potential cross-country heterogeneity in the effects of education and health. Our main results are: (i) education and health are, on average, income-enhancing; (ii) for different schooling levels, although primary education lowers income, both secondary and tertiary education raise income with larger impacts for the former than the latter, on average; (iii) there is considerable heterogeneity in the effects of education and health on income across countries; and (iv) the effect of education (health) on income tends to be greater (smaller) in countries with higher levels of development, greater (less) trade openness, less abundant natural resources, less corruption, higher levels of democracy, and a more homogeneous society.

This paper investigates the desirability of constitutional constraints on capital taxation in an environment without government debt and where benevolent governments have limited commitment. In our setup, governments can choose proportional capital and labor income taxes subject to the constitutional constraint but cannot commit to an actual path of taxes. First, we explore a form of constitutional constraint: a constant cap on capital tax rates. In our quantitative exercise, we show that a three percent cap on capital taxes provides the highest welfare at the worst sustainable equilibrium. However, such a cap decreases welfare at the best sustainable equilibrium (both because it constrains feasibility and because it tightens the incentive compatibility constraint). Second, we identify a form of constitutional constraint that can improve all sustainable equilibria. That constraint features a cap on capital taxes that increases with the level of capital.

This paper extends the existing theories of directed technical change by allowing the factors of production, skilled, and unskilled workers, to be employed in both the skill-intensive and unskilled-intensive sectors. Consequently, the direction of technical progress and the sectoral allocation of factors are jointly determined. The feedback between technical progress and the allocation of factors leads to new results concerning structural change and directed technical change. An increase in the endowment of a factor leads to a dynamic reallocation of factors toward the sector that uses the factor intensively. The reallocation of factors also affects the stability properties of directed technical change. When the parameter conditions necessary for strong bias are satisfied, the interior regime (nonspecialization) is at most locally stable. More importantly, if the relative endowment of skilled labor becomes too high (low), the economy necessarily specializes in the production of skilled (unskilled)-labor-intensive goods. Last, the relationship between the relative endowment of skilled labor and the steady-state relative wage rate is not necessarily monotonic.

Axel Leijonhufvud made an enormous impact on macroeconomics in the late 1960s with the publication of his book On Keynesian Economics and the Economics of Keynes: A Study of Monetary Economics (1968). In this famous book, Leijonhufvud argued that the standard neoclassical synthesis (Hicks–Hansen IS-LM) interpretation of the General Theory totally misunderstood and misinterpreted Keynes. However, during the 1970's, interest in Keynes and Keynesian models waned as new classical equilibrium models became all the rage. Nevertheless, Leijonhufvud, from a position outside the mainstream, continued his research into problems of unemployment, business cycles, and inflation—issues that from his perspective are problems of coordination failure in complex dynamical systems. Axel Leijonhufvud is currently Professor Emeritus at the University of California, Los Angeles, and, since 1995, Professor of Monetary Economics at the University of Trento, Italy. In this interview the author discusses with Leijonhufvud a wide range of issues relating to his own work as well as his views on the development of macroeconomics after Keynes.

We build quadratic labor adjustment costs into an otherwise standard New Keynesian model of the business cycle and show that this increases output persistence in a vein similar to that of other models of labor market frictions. Furthermore, we demonstrate the implication of quadratic labor adjustment costs for monetary policy. We show that there is a simple rule determining whether quadratic labor adjustment costs imply a trade-off between stabilizing inflation and output.

In previous papers [Spear and Young (2014, 2015)], we surveyed the origins, evolution, and dissemination of optimal growth, two-sector and turnpike models up to the early 1970s. Regarding subsequent developments in growth theory, a number of prominent observers, such as Fischer (1988), Stern (1991), and McCallum (1996), maintained that after significant progress in the 1950s and 1960s, economic growth theory “received relatively little attention for almost two decades” [Fischer (1988, p. 329)], and that “by the late 1960s early 1970s, research on the theory of growth more or less stopped” [Stern (1991, p. 259)]. Stern went on to say “the latter half of the 1980s saw a rekindling of growth theory, particularly in the work of Romer . . . and Lucas” (1991, p. 259), that is to say, in the form of “endogenous growth” models. McCallum, for his part, wrote (1996, p. 41), “After a long period of quiescence, growth economics has in the last decade (1986–1995) become an extremely active area of research.” Moreover, Brock and Mirman's (1972b) paper was the sole “extension” of Ramsey–Cass–Koopmans to a “stochastic environment” mentioned by McCallum (1996, 49).

By concentrating a stimulus on the domestic economy, Buy National clauses are argued to lead to higher fiscal multipliers. We show that this argument falls short. Although it is true that domestic demand for domestic goods is increased, at the same time foreign demand for domestic goods is reduced by adverse changes in the real exchange rate. The two effects are of similar magnitude, so that Buy National clauses do not lead to a stronger stimulus to GDP. Apart from that, restricting the stimulus to domestic products makes the stimulus more expensive, because cheap foreign products are ignored. Consequently, real public consumption is lowered by Buy National clauses.

In the economics literature, there are two dominant approaches for solving models with optimal experimentation (also called active learning). The first approach is based on the value function and the second on an approximation method. In principle the value function approach is the preferred method. However, it suffers from the curse of dimensionality and is only applicable to small problems with a limited number of policy variables. The approximation method allows for a computationally larger class of models, but may produce results that deviate from the optimal solution. Our simulations indicate that when the effects of learning are limited, the differences may be small. However, when there is sufficient scope for learning, the value function solution seems more aggressive in the use of the policy variable.

This paper investigates the link between consumer pessimism and U.S. economic recessions empirically. First we use structural vector autoregressive models to identify negative structural shocks to consumer confidence, which are used as a proxy for recession fear. We then apply probit models and time-varying-transition-probability Markov-switching autoregressive models to investigate how the lack of consumer confidence affects the probability of recession. We find that recession fear leads to a higher probability of economic downturns. Furthermore, strong evidence exists that an increase in market pessimism may push the economy from an expansion state to a recession state. We also find weaker evidence suggesting that a lack of consumer confidence may trap the economy in the depressed regime longer. We conclude that a lack of confidence can push the economy into recession.

We build a stochastic discount factor—SDF—using U.S. domestic financial data only, and provide evidence that it accounts for stylized facts about foreign markets that escape SDFs generated by consumption-based models. When our SDF is interpreted as the projection of the pricing kernel from a fully specified model in the space of returns, our results indicate that a model that accounts for the behavior of domestic assets goes a long way toward accounting for the behavior of foreign asset prices. In our tests, we address predictability, a defining feature of the forward premium puzzle—FPP—by using instruments that are known to forecast excess returns in the moment restrictions associated with Euler equations both in the equity and in the foreign markets.

This paper extends Woodford's approach to the robustly optimal monetary policy to a general linear quadratic framework. We provide algorithms to solve for a time-invariant linear robustly optimal policy in a timeless perspective and for a time-invariant linear Markov perfect equilibrium under discretion. We apply our methods to a New Keynesian model of monetary policy with persistent cost-push shocks and inflation persistence. We find that the robustly optimal commitment inflation is less responsive to a cost-push shock when the shock is more persistent and that the robustly optimal discretionary policy is more responsive to lagged inflation when inflation is more persistent.