Extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis (XDR TB) has emerged as a threat to TB control efforts in several high-burden areas, generating international concern. XDR TB is now found in every region of the world, but appears most worrisome in the context of HIV and in resource-limited settings with congregate hospital wards. Here, we examine the emergence and transmission dynamics of the disease, incorporating the mathematical modelling literature related to airborne infection and epidemiological studies related to the operations of TB control programmes in resource-limited settings. We find that while XDR TB may present many challenges in the setting of resource constraints, the central problems highlighted by the emergence of XDR TB are those that have plagued TB programmes for years. These include a slow rate of case detection that permits prolonged infectiousness, the threat of airborne infection in enclosed spaces, the problem of inadequate treatment delivery and treatment completion, and the need to develop health systems that can address the combination of TB and poverty. Mathematical models of TB transmission shed light on the idea that community-based therapy and rapid detection systems may be beneficial in resource-limited settings, while congregate hospital wards are sites for major structural reform.

We considered a Bayesian analysis for the prevalence of tuberculosis cases in New York City from 1970 to 2000. This counting dataset presented two change-points during this period. We modelled this counting dataset considering non-homogeneous Poisson processes in the presence of the two-change points. A Bayesian analysis for the data is considered using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Simulated Gibbs samples for the parameters of interest were obtained using WinBugs software.

In 1999 the Enhanced Tuberculosis Surveillance (ETS) system was introduced in the United Kingdom to strengthen surveillance of tuberculosis (TB). The aim of this study was to assess the use of record-linkage and capture–recapture methodology for estimating the completeness of TB reporting in England between 1999 and 2002. Due to the size of the TB data sources sophisticated record-linkage software was required and the proportion of false-positive cases among unlinked hospital-derived TB records was estimated through a population mixture model. This study showed that record-linkage of TB data sources and cross-validation with additional TB-related datasets improved data quality as well as case ascertainment. Since the introduction of ETS observed completeness of notification in England has increased and the results were consistent with expected levels of under-notification. Completeness of notification estimated by a log-linear capture–recapture model was highly inconsistent with prior estimates and the validity of this methodology was further examined.

A cross-sectional field study was performed to evaluate infection in dogs and cats living on farms with Mycobacterium bovis-infected cattle. The purpose was to determine pet infection status and assess their risk to farm families and/or tuberculosis-free livestock. Data and specimens were collected from 18 cats and five dogs from nine participating farms. ELISA testing for M. bovis and M. avium was conducted. Fifty-one biological samples were cultured; all were negative for M. bovis, although other Mycobacterium species were recovered. No radiographic, serological or skin test evidence of mycobacterial infection was found. These negative results may be due to the low level of M. bovis infection in the cattle and the limited duration of exposure of pets to infected cattle residing on the same farm. No evidence was found to indicate that pets residing on M. bovis-infected Michigan cattle farms pose a risk to humans or M. bovis-free livestock; however, precautionary advice for farm owners was provided.

Contacts of leprosy patients have a higher risk of developing clinical leprosy. Being a contact is defined socially, but with the introduction of geographical information systems (GIS) in infectious disease epidemiology, it is necessary to relate spatial distance to social distance. We measured the distances between patients and their socially defined contacts in northwest Bangladesh. Contact categories differ in mean distance to the index patients. Sixty-seven per cent of the high-risk contacts lived within 10 metres (m), while all low-risk contacts lived >10 m from the index patient. Classification based on intervals of spatial distance creates categories that contain contacts of different socially defined categories, illustrated by a category of people living between 10 m and 20 m consisting of 47% of high-risk contacts and 52% low-risk contacts. Classification of contacts based on the spatial distance, as performed with GIS techniques, produces other groups than with social definitions.

In patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) prediction rules based on individual predicted mortalities are frequently used to support decision-making for in-patient vs. outpatient management. We studied the accuracy and the need for recalibration of three risk prediction scores in a tertiary-care University hospital emergency-department setting in Switzerland. We pooled data from patients with CAP enrolled in two randomized controlled trials. We compared expected mortality from the original pneumonia severity index (PSI), CURB65 and CRB65 scores against observed mortality (calibration) and recalibrated the scores by fitting the intercept α and the calibration slope β from our calibration model. Each of the original models underestimated the observed 30-day mortality of 11%, in 371 patients admitted to the emergency department with CAP (8·4%, 5·5% and 5·0% for the PSI, CURB65 and CRB65 scores, respectively). In particular, we observed a relevant mortality within the low risk classes of the original models (2·6%, 5·3%, and 3·7% for PSI classes I–III, CURB65 classes 0–1, and CRB65 class 0, respectively). Recalibration of the original risk models corrected the miscalibration. After recalibration, however, only PSI class I was sensitive enough to identify patients with a low risk (i.e. <1%) for mortality suitable for outpatient management. In our tertiary-care setting with mostly referred in-patients, CAP risk scores substantially underestimated observed mortalities misclassifying patients with relevant risks of death suitable for outpatient management. Prior to the implementation of CAP risk scores in the clinical setting, the need for recalibration and the accuracy of low-risk re-classification should be studied in order to adhere with discharge guidelines and guarantee patients' safety.

Epidemiological data from bank voles, Myodes glareolus, naturally infected by the hantavirus Puumala (PUUV) were collected by a capture–mark–recapture protocol from 2000 to 2002 in the French department of Ardennes. Four monitored trapping sites were established in two forests located in two cantons (Flize and Monthermé). We captured 912 bank voles corresponding to 557 different individuals during 8820 trapping nights for an overall trapping success of 10·34%. The average PUUV seroprevalence was 22·4%. Characteristics of the system reported in North European countries are confirmed in France. PUUV seroprevalence and abundance of rodents appeared weakly linked. Adult voles were more frequently antibody-positive, but no difference between sexes was established. Anti-PUUV seropositive voles were captured and high seroprevalence was observed from both forests, without human infection reported in Flize canton during the study. One site among the four exhibited peculiar infection dynamics, where vole weight and infection risk were negatively correlated.

Since 2001 hepatitis B vaccination has been offered to prisoners on reception into prisons in England and Wales. However, short campaigns of vaccinating the entire population of individual prisons have achieved high vaccination coverage for limited periods, suggesting that short campaigns may be a preferable way of vaccinating prisoners. A model is used that describes the flow of prisoners through prisons stratified by injecting status to compare a range of vaccination scenarios that describe vaccination on prison reception or via regular short campaigns. Model results suggest that vaccinating on prison reception can capture a greater proportion of the injecting drug user (IDU) population than the comparable campaign scenarios (63% vs. 55·6% respectively). Vaccination on prison reception is also more efficient at capturing IDUs for vaccination than vaccination via a campaign, although vaccination via campaigns may have a role with some infections for overall control.

To predict the spread of a pandemic strain of influenza virus in Italy and the impact of control measures, we developed a susceptible–exposed, but not yet infectious–infectious–recovered, and no longer susceptible (SEIR) deterministic model with a stochastic simulation component. We modelled the impact of control measures such as vaccination, antiviral prophylaxis and social distancing measures. In the absence of control measures, the epidemic peak would be reached about 4 months after the importation of the first cases in Italy, and the epidemic would last about 7 months. When combined, the control measures would reduce the cumulative attack rate to about 4·2%, at best, although this would require an extremely high number of treated individuals. In accordance with international findings, our results highlight the need to respond to a pandemic with a combination of control measures.

We propose a rather simple model, which fits well the weekly human influenza incidence data from England and Wales. A standard way to analyse seasonally varying time-series is to decompose them into different components. The residuals obtained after eliminating these components often do not reveal time dependency and are normally distributed. We suggest that conclusions should not be drawn only on the basis of residuals and that one should consider the analysis of squared residuals. We show that squared residuals can reveal the presence of the remaining seasonal variation, which is not exhibited by the analysis of residuals, and that the modelling of such seasonal variations undoubtedly improves model fit.

The weekly number of dengue cases in Peru, South America, stratified by province for the period 1994–2006 were analysed in conjunction with associated demographic, geographic and climatological data. Estimates of the reproduction number, moderately correlated with population size (Spearman ρ=0·28, P=0·03), had a median of 1·76 (IQR 0·83–4·46). The distributions of dengue attack rates and epidemic durations follow power-law (Pareto) distributions (coefficient of determination >85%, P<0·004). Spatial heterogeneity of attack rates was highest in coastal areas followed by mountain and jungle areas. Our findings suggest a hierarchy of transmission events during the large 2000–2001 epidemic from large to small population areas when serotypes DEN-3 and DEN-4 were first identified (Spearman ρ=−0·43, P=0·03). The need for spatial and temporal dengue epidemic data with a high degree of resolution not only increases our understanding of the dynamics of dengue but will also generate new hypotheses and provide a platform for testing innovative control policies.

Individuals belonging to five families, 12 genera, and 19 different species of bats from dengue endemic areas in the Gulf and Pacific coasts of Mexico were examined by ELISA, RT–PCR, and for the presence of dengue virus (DV) NS1 protein. Nine individuals from four species were seropositive by ELISA: three insectivorous, Myotis nigricans (four positives/12 examined), Pteronotus parnellii (3/19), and Natalus stramineus (1/4), and one frugivorous Artibeus jamaicensis (1/35) (12·86% seroprevalence in positive species). DV serotype 2 was detected by RT–PCR in four samples from three species (all from the Gulf coast – rainy season): two frugivorous, A. jamaicensis (2/9), and Carollia brevicauda (1/2), and one insectivorous, M. nigricans (1/11). The latter was simultaneously positive for NS1 protein. DV RT–PCR positive animals were all antibody seronegative. M. nigricans showed positive individuals for all three tests. This is the first evidence suggesting the presence of DV in bats from Mexico.

Legionnaires' disease (LD) is an aetiology of community-acquired bacterial pneumonia in adults, with a high case-fatality ratio (CFR). We conducted a matched case-control study to identify risk factors for sporadic, community-acquired LD. Cases of sporadic, community-acquired and biologically confirmed LD, in metropolitan France from 1 September 2002 to 31 September 2004, were matched with a control subject according to age, sex, underlying illness and location of residence within 5 km. We performed a conditional logistic regression on various host-related factors and exposures. Analysis was done on 546 matched pairs. The CFR was 3·5%. Age ranged from 18–93 years (mean 57 years), with a 3·6 male:female sex ratio. Cases were more likely to have smoked with the documentation of a dose-effect relation, to have travelled with a stay in a hotel (OR 6·1, 95% CI 2·6–14·2), or to have used a wash-hand basin for personal hygiene (OR 3·5, 95% CI 1·6–7·7) than controls. Tobacco and travel have been previously described as risk factors for LD, but this is the first time that such a dose-effect for tobacco has been documented among sporadic cases. These findings will provide helpful knowledge about LD and help practitioners in identifying patients at high risk.

We conducted a 31-month retrospective review of all laboratory-confirmed Streptococcus suis infections admitted to public hospitals in Hong Kong. Strain identification, serotyping and antibiotic susceptibility tests were conducted on S. suis isolates. Twenty-one sporadic cases were identified, comprising 18 (86%) males and 3 (14%) females. About half were patients aged ⩾65 years. More cases occurred during summer. Occupational exposure was documented in five (24%) cases. The estimated annual incidence was 0·09/100 000 in the general population and 32/100 000 in people with occupational exposure to pigs and raw pork. The primary clinical manifestations were meningitis (48%), septicaemia (38%) and endocarditis (14%). The case-fatality rate was 5%. All available isolates from 15 patients were serotype 2, sensitive to penicillin, ampicillin, ceftriaxone, but resistant to tetracycline. Injury prevention and proper handling of pigs or raw pork should be advocated to both at-risk occupational groups and the general population.

Eluted dried blood spot specimens from newborn screening, collected in 2004 in North Thames and anonymously linked to birth registration data, were tested for maternally acquired rubella IgG antibody as a proxy for maternal antibody concentration using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Finite mixture regression models were fitted to the antibody concentrations from 1964 specimens. The Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) was used as a model selection criterion to avoid over-fitting the number of mixture model components. This allowed investigation of the independent effect of maternal age and maternal country of birth on rubella antibody concentration without dichotomizing the outcome variable using cut-off values set a priori. Mixture models are a highly useful method of analysis in seroprevalence studies of vaccine-preventable infections in which preset cut-off values may overestimate the size of the seronegative population.

Although Lyme borreliosis is increasingly diagnosed in the United Kingdom, few systematic studies have been performed there. UK data suggest that the commonest complications are neurological, but inadequate information exists about their nature and the incidence of late neuroborreliosis. Local data are necessary because clinical presentations may show geographical variation. This study aimed to provide data on clinical manifestations in an area of South West England and to estimate treatment delay. We reviewed clinical records of 88 patients in the Royal Devon and Exeter Hospital catchment area who had positive Borrelia antibody tests during a 5-year period. Fifty-six (64%) reported tick bites. The commonest presentations were erythema migrans (65%) and arthralgia/myalgia (27%). However, 22 patients (25%) had neurological symptoms other than headache alone. Fourteen had facial palsy, eight had confusion/drowsiness, four had meningism, five had radiculopathy, two had sixth nerve palsies, and two had peripheral neuropathies. No late, progressive or atypical neurological syndromes were found. Neurological manifestations were generally predictable and usually included either (or all) of meningoencephalitis, facial palsy or radiculopathy.

Cat scratch disease (CSD), bacillary angiomatosis, hepatic peliosis and some cases of bacteraemia, endocarditis, and osteomyelitis are directly caused by some species of the genus Bartonella. The purpose of this study was to determine the prevalence of IgG antibodies against Bartonella henselae in healthy people and to identify the epidemiological factors involved. Serum samples from 218 patients were examined by indirect immunofluorescence assay (IFA). Significance levels for univariate statistical analysis were determined by the Mann–Whitney U test, χ2 test and Fisher's exact test. Of 218 patients, 99 were female and 119 male, with a median age of 34·36 years (range 0–91 years). Nineteen (8·7%) reacted with B. henselae antigens. Of all the factors concerning the seroprevalence rate being studied (age, sex, contact with animals, residential area), only age was statistically significant. Our serological data seems to indicate that B. henselae is present in Catalonia and could be transmitted to humans.

Despite a significant public health burden the epidemiology of human Campylobacter infection remains blurred. The identification of demographic determinants for Campylobacter infection is therefore essential for identifying potential areas for intervention. Demographic data from an active, population-based sentinel surveillance system for Campylobacter infection (from 2000 until 2003, n=15 907) were compared with appropriate denominator data from the 2001 United Kingdom Census. Incidence was higher in males from birth until the late teens and in females from 20 to 36 years. Age- and gender-specific differences in Campylobacter incidence were observed in different ethnic and socioeconomic groups and hence are all major drivers for Campylobacter infection. Epidemiological studies on Campylobacter infection need to take these factors into consideration during design and analysis. The collation of detailed epidemiological data and its comparison with appropriate denominator data provides a valuable epidemiological tool for studying infection.