In January 1940 British Ministry of Health circular 1307 proposed the introduction of mass childhood diphtheria immunization. This was a policy reversal after a decade during which opportunities for diphtheria prophylaxis were ignored, or resisted on grounds of cost. Diphtheria toxoid was to be the first of many centrally funded childhood immunizations in the UK and it set a pattern that has now held good for over 70 years. The circumstances in 1940 were particularly fortuitous, and diphtheria toxoid has since given successive generations of children a lifetime's protection from the disease; but difficulties have been experienced in introducing and evaluating some of the more recent immunizations, and in maintaining and justifying them in the face of parental scepticism and academic or pressure-group opposition, however ill-founded this may have been. The task of decision-making with regard to new candidate vaccines demands a careful balancing against the costs of the expected benefits during the recipient's lifespan.

Susceptibility to vaccine-preventable diseases in Belgium in 2006 was estimated from a serum survey. Immunoglobulins against measles, mumps, rubella (MMR) and diphtheria at all available ages (1–65 years), and against tetanus in >40-year-olds, were measured by ELISA. Age-standardized overall seronegativity for MMR was low (3·9%, 8·0%, 10·4%, respectively). However, the World Health Organization's targets for measles elimination were not met in 5- to 24-year-olds and about 1 in 7 women at childbearing age (15–39 years) were seronegative for rubella. In adults >40 years, tetanus immunity (87·2%, >0·16 IU/ml) largely exceeded diphtheria immunity (20–45%, >0·1 IU/ml). Despite free universal vaccination against MMR for more than 20 years and against diphtheria and tetanus for almost 60 years, our study revealed specific age groups remaining at risk for infection with these pathogens.

The objective of this study was to characterize empirically the association between vaccination coverage and the size and occurrence of measles epidemics in Germany. In order to achieve this we analysed data routinely collected by the Robert Koch Institute, which comprise the weekly number of reported measles cases at all ages as well as estimates of vaccination coverage at the average age of entry into the school system. Coverage levels within each federal state of Germany are incorporated into a multivariate time-series model for infectious disease counts, which captures occasional outbreaks by means of an autoregressive component. The observed incidence pattern of measles for all ages is best described by using the log proportion of unvaccinated school starters in the autoregressive component of the model.

Inadequate notification is a recognized problem of measles surveillance systems in many countries, and it should be monitored using multiple data sources. We compared data from three different surveillance sources in 2007: (1) the sentinel surveillance system mandated by the Act on Prevention of Infectious Diseases and Medical Care for Patients Suffering Infectious Diseases, (2) the mandatory notification system run by the Aichi prefectural government, and (3) health insurance claims (HICs) submitted to corporate health insurance societies. For each dataset, we examined the number of measles cases by month, within multiple age groups, and in two categories of diagnostic test groups. We found that the sentinel surveillance system underestimated the number of adult measles cases. We also found that HIC data, rather than mandatory notification data, were more likely to come from individuals who had undergone laboratory tests to confirm their measles diagnosis. Thus, HIC data may provide a supplementary and readily available measles surveillance data source.

A preliminary study was conducted to determine the presence of spotted fever rickettsiae in two species of British tick (Ixodes ricinus and Dermacentor reticulatus). The 16S rRNA gene of Rickettsia spp. was detected in 39/401 (9·7%) of ticks tested, including 22/338 (6·5%) I. ricinus and 17/63 (27%) D. reticulatus. Some positive I. ricinus samples showed 100% homology with Rickettsia helvetica (10/22), and most positive D. reticulatus showed 100% homology with R. raoultii (13/17). Five other Rickettsia spp. were detected exhibiting 96–99% homology. Ticks positive for rickettsiae were collected from various hosts and from vegetation from eight counties across Great Britain. The distribution of R. helvetica in various engorged and unfed stages of I. ricinus suggests that R. helvetica is widespread. R. raoultii was found in questing adult D. reticulatus in Wales and England. This is the first evidence of potentially pathogenic spotted fever rickettsiae in British ticks.

To estimate the change in the seroprevalence and risk factors for toxoplasmosis in The Netherlands, a study was conducted in the general population in 2006/2007, similarly designed as a previous study in 1995/1996. Testing 5541 sera for IgG antibodies against Toxoplasma gondii showed a marked decrease of the overall seroprevalence to 26·0% [95% confidence interval (CI) 24·0–28·0], compared to 40·5% (95% CI 37·5–43·4) in 1995/1996. In women of reproductive age the seroprevalence decreased from 35·2% (95% CI 32·9–38·6) in 1995/1996 to 18·5% (95% CI 16·2–20·7) in 2006/2007, leaving the majority of pregnant women susceptible to primary infection with T. gondii and their babies to congenital toxoplasmosis. In participants aged ⩾20 years, Toxoplasma seropositivity was associated with living in the Northwest, living in urban areas, low educational level, consumption of raw pork, keeping a cat, and not having occupational contact with clients or patients. For younger participants, risk factors were keeping sheep or cattle, consumption of raw unwashed vegetables and putting sand in the mouth.

Chagas' disease is an opportunistic infection in the setting of HIV/AIDS. The arrival of HIV-positive immigrants from endemic areas to non-endemic countries makes possible the detection of Chagas' disease in this group of patients. We describe the results of a screening programme conducted in the HIV-positive immigrant population arriving from endemic areas who attended the Tropical Medicine Unit of Hospital Universitario Central of Asturias during 2008. We determined anti-T. cruzi antibodies in all HIV patients arriving from endemic areas who were followed up. The ID-Chagas antibody test was used as a screening assay. The positive cases were confirmed with ELISA, IFAT and PCR. We analysed 19 HIV-positive immigrants, of which two (10·5%) had a positive antibody test for Chagas' disease confirmed. PCR was positive in both cases. There was no difference between the co-infected and the non-co-infected patients with respect to race, place of birth and residence, CD4+ cell count, and HIV viral load count. Direct microscopic examination of blood was negative in both positive cases. The positive patients were a man from Bolivia and woman from Paraguay. The overlap of HIV and T. cruzi infection occurs not only in endemic areas but also in non-endemic areas of North America and Europe where the diagnosis may be even more difficult due to low diagnostic suspicion. The implementation of screening programmes in this population group is needed for the early diagnostic of Chagas' disease.

Evaluation of antimalarial efficacy is difficult because recurrent parasitaemia can be due to recrudescence or re-infection. PCR is used to differentiate between recrudescences and re-infections by comparing parasite allelic variants before and after treatment. However, PCR-corrected results are susceptible to misclassification: false positives, due to re-infection by the same variant present in the patient before treatment; and false negatives, due to variants that are present but too infrequent to be detected in the pre-treatment PCR, but are then detectable post-treatment. This paper aimed to explore factors affecting the probability of false positives and proposes a Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis to account for both types of misclassification. Higher levels of transmission intensity, increased multiplicity of infection, and limited allelic variation resulted in more false recrudescences. The uncertainty analysis exploits characteristics of study data to minimize bias in the estimate of efficacy and can be applied to areas of different transmission intensity.

This nested case-control study investigated the risk factors for gastroenteritis in a cohort using rainwater as their primary domestic water source. Consumption of beef [odds ratio (OR) 2·74, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1·56–4·80], handling of raw fresh chicken in the household (OR 1·52, 95% CI 1·02–2·29) and animal contact (OR 1·83, 95% CI 1·20–2·83) were found to be significant risk factors (P>0·05). Significant protective effects were observed with raw salad prepared at home (OR 0·33, 95% CI 0·18–0·58), consumption of salami (OR 0·60, 95% CI 0·36–0·98), and shellfish (OR 0·31, 95% CI 0·14–0·67). This study provides novel insight into community-based endemic gastroenteritis showing that consumption of beef was associated with increased odds of illness and with a population attributable fraction (PAF) of 57·6%. Detecting such a high PAF for beef in a non-outbreak setting was unexpected.

The purpose of this study was to determine the magnitude and distribution of acute gastrointestinal illness (GI) in the Chilean population, describe its burden and presentation, identify risk factors associated with GI and assess the differences between a 7-day, 15-day and a 30-day recall period in the population-based burden of illness study design. Face-to-face surveys were conducted on 6047 randomly selected residents in the Metropolitan region, Chile (average response rate 75·8%) in 2008. The age-adjusted monthly prevalence of GI was 9·2%. The 7-day recall period provided annual incidence rate estimates about 2·2 times those of the 30-day recall period. Age, occupation, healthcare system, sewer system, antibiotic use and cat ownership were all found to be significant predictors for being a case. This study expands on the discussion of recall bias in retrospective population studies and reports the first population-based burden and distribution of GI estimates in Chile.

The prevalence of Helicobacter pylori infection is decreasing in developed countries. In this study we included 22 612 patients in whom a first culture of gastric biopsy (routinely performed in our medical centres) yielded an interpretable result over a 20-year period (1988–2007) in Brussels. The effects of patients' age, gender and ethnic background were analysed. The overall proportion of H. pylori-infected patients was 37·7%, with a progressive decline over time (P<10−5). A gender effect was observed in adults. The lowest infection rate was observed in Western European patients (n=11 238) with respectively 36·2% and 15·2% infected subjects in 1988 and 2007, compared to 71·7% and 40% in North African patients (n=3200) (P<10−5). However, no trend of decline was observed over time in North African children aged ⩽9 years. These data show the effects of time, age and ethnicity on the prevalence of H. pylori infection, and its complex heterogeneity in the same cosmopolitan urban area.

Triple therapy is commonly used for the treatment of Helicobacter pylori infection. We determined risk factors associated with its failure in compliant patients focusing on H. pylori density, virulence marker and 23S ribosomal RNA (rRNA) point mutations associated with clarithromycin resistance. H. pylori infection was diagnosed by 14C urea breath test (14C UBT) and rapid urease test or histology. Triple therapy with esomeprazole 20 mg b.i.d., amoxicillin 1 g b.i.d. and clarithromycin 500 mg b.i.d. was prescribed for 10 days. 14C UBT was repeated 4 weeks after treatment. In total, 111 patients [69 (62%) males] with a mean age of 46±16 years were enrolled. The mean age of treatment failure was 39±14 years compared to 48±16 years with eradication (P=0·002). Treatment failure was associated with younger mean age, point mutations in the 23S rRNA gene of H. pylori and vacA s1a and m1 when associated with cagA negativity.

This study characterized the current epidemiology of vibrio infections in Florida and examined cases reported from 1998 to 2007. Logistic regression was used to determine risk of death. There were 834 vibrio infections in 825 individuals (average annual incidence rate 4·8/1 000 000). Common Vibrio species reported were Vibrio vulnificus (33%), V. parahaemolyticus (29%), and V. alginolyticus (16%). Most exposures were attributed to wounds (42%), and the most common clinical syndromes were wound infections (45%) and gastroenteritis (42%). Almost half of individuals reported an underlying health condition. Risk of death was associated with any underlying condition and increased with the number of conditions (P<0·0001). In Florida, incidence of vibriosis associated with raw oyster consumption has decreased while incidence associated with wound infections has increased. Most prevention efforts to date have focused on oyster consumption. New educational messages focusing on the risk of vibriosis from wound infections should target high-risk populations.

Understanding local perceptions of disease causation could help public health officials improve strategies to prevent bloody diarrhoea. A cross-sectional survey was conducted in Dhaka, Bangladesh to elicit community beliefs about the causes of and prevention strategies for bloody diarrhoea. Between March and June 2003, we interviewed 541 randomly selected respondents. Overall, 507 (93%) respondents perceived that a vaccine could prevent bloody diarrhoea. If a vaccine provided lifetime protection, 445 (83%) respondents stated that they would opt to get the vaccine and would pay a median of $0·05 (range U.S.$0·01–0·15) for it, equivalent to <1% of their median weekly income. There was almost universal perception that an effective vaccine to prevent bloody diarrhoea was highly beneficial and acceptable. While respondents valued a vaccine for prevention of bloody diarrhoea, they were only willing to pay minimally for it. Therefore, achieving a high rate of Shigella vaccine coverage may require subsidy of vaccine purchase.

Suppurative methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) skin infections are common and associated with MRSA colonization, but little is known about non-suppurative cellulitis and its relationship with MRSA colonization in areas endemic for community-associated MRSA. We prospectively enrolled patients hospitalized for non-suppurative cellulitis (n=50) and matched controls (n=100) and found S. aureus colonization was similar in cases and controls (30% vs. 25%, P=0·95). MRSA was uncommon in cases (6%) and controls (3%) (P=0·39). All MRSA isolates were USA300 by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis. Independent risk factors for non-suppurative cellulitis were diabetes (OR 3·5, 95% CI 1·4–8·9, P=0·01) and homelessness in the previous year (OR 6·4, 95% CI 1·9–20·9, P=0·002). These findings suggest that MRSA may only rarely be causative of non-suppurative cellulitis.

This study aimed to evaluate the incidence of Staphylococcus aureus infections in different departments of Belcolle Hospital in Viterbo and the surrounding area between January 2003 and June 2008. Isolates of methicillin-resistant S. aureus (MRSA) recovered in this time interval were characterized by microbiological and molecular methods to evaluate the reliability of simple criteria to distinguish between hospital-acquired and community-acquired isolates. MRSA accounted for 33% of all S. aureus, with a significantly higher prevalence in isolates from nosocomial infections. MRSA isolates were assayed by PCR for the presence of 13 genes associated with virulence, agr type and SCCmec type. Cumulative data were analysed by partial least square discriminant analysis and a clear correlation was demonstrated between genetic profiles and classification of isolates as hospital or community acquired according to simple temporal criteria. Nosocomial MRSA isolates from blood samples showed significantly higher genetic diversity than other nosocomial isolates. Our data confirm the existence of significant differences between community- and hospital-acquired MRSA isolates.

The epidemiology and clinical features of invasive group A streptococcal (iGAS) disease in Queensland children was investigated in response to anecdotal evidence of an increase in frequency and severity of this condition. A retrospective review of clinical records of all cases of iGAS disease notified to Queensland Health aged 0–18 years during a 5-year period was conducted. The annualized incidence of iGAS was 3·5/100 000 for the total population aged 0–18 and 13·2/100 000 for the Indigenous population of similar age. The annualized incidence was highest in Indigenous infants but no increase in frequency or severity of iGAS infections was observed. Findings included an increased prevalence in Indigenous children particularly in those aged <1 year, a significant male preponderance, lack of seasonal variation and an association with blunt trauma. Further studies are required to confirm and investigate these findings and to define specific risk factors in high-risk groups.

An outbreak of rabies affected domestic raccoon dogs on an animal farm in Inner Mongolia, China in 2007. A study was conducted to characterize the aetiological agent and clarify the origin of the rabies virus. Brain tissues were obtained from five rabid raccoon dogs. Viral nucleoprotein antigen was detected in the brain tissues and five rabies viruses were isolated from these rabid animals. Phylogenetic analysis of the N and G gene sequences showed that these isolates were closely related to Arctic-like rabies viruses isolated from the far-eastern region of Russia and South Korea, but distinct from the rabies viruses that are widely distributed in endemic areas in China. Epidemiological data suggested that the likely source of infection was from one wild raccoon dog that was captured and placed in the same type of pen used for domestic raccoon dogs.

Salmonella is a frequent cause of foodborne illness. However, since most symptomatic cases are not diagnosed, the true infection pressure is unknown. Furthermore, national surveillance systems have different sensitivities that limit inter-country comparisons. We have used recently developed methods for translating measurements of Salmonella antibodies into estimates of seroincidence: the frequency of infections including asymptomatic cases. This methodology was applied to cross-sectional collections of serum samples obtained from the general healthy population in three European countries. Denmark and The Netherlands had the lowest seroincidence (84169 infections/1000 person-years), whereas Poland had the highest seroincidence (547/1000 person-years). A Bayesian method for obtaining incidence rate ratios was developed; this showed a 6·3 (95% credibility interval 3·3–12·5) higher incidence in Poland than in Denmark which demonstrates that this methodology has a wider applicability for studies of surveillance systems and evaluation of control programmes.