Most finite spatial point process models specified by a density are locally stable, implying that the Papangelou intensity is bounded by some integrable function β defined on the space for the points of the process. It is possible to superpose a locally stable spatial point process X with a complementary spatial point process Y to obtain a Poisson process X ⋃ Y with intensity function β. Underlying this is a bivariate spatial birth-death process (Xt, Yt) which converges towards the distribution of (X, Y). We study the joint distribution of X and Y, and their marginal and conditional distributions. In particular, we introduce a fast and easy simulation procedure for Y conditional on X. This may be used for model checking: given a model for the Papangelou intensity of the original spatial point process, this model is used to generate the complementary process, and the resulting superposition is a Poisson process with intensity function β if and only if the true Papangelou intensity is used. Whether the superposition is actually such a Poisson process can easily be examined using well-known results and fast simulation procedures for Poisson processes. We illustrate this approach to model checking in the case of a Strauss process.

We study the growth of a population of bacteria in a dynamical hostile environment corresponding to the immune system of the colonized organism. The immune cells evolve as subcritical open clusters of oriented percolation and are perpetually reinforced by an immigration process, while the bacteria try to grow as a supercritical oriented percolation in the remaining empty space. We prove that the population of bacteria grows linearly when it survives. From this perspective, we build general tools to study dependent oriented percolation models issued from renormalization processes.

Let {Xn}n∈ℕ be a Markov chain on a measurable space with transition kernel P, and let The Markov kernel P is here considered as a linear bounded operator on the weighted-supremum space associated with V. Then the combination of quasicompactness arguments with precise analysis of eigenelements of P allows us to estimate the geometric rate of convergence ρV(P) of {Xn}n∈ℕ to its invariant probability measure in operator norm on A general procedure to compute ρV(P) for discrete Markov random walks with identically distributed bounded increments is specified.

In this paper, we refine the concept of Γ-variation up to second order, and we give a characterization of this type of asymptotic behaviour. We apply our results to obtain uniform rates of convergence in the weak convergence of renormalised sample maxima to the double exponential distribution. In a second application we derive a rate of convergence result for the Hill estimator.

The almost sure convergence of the maximum of a strictly stationary sequence is studied. We show that, if a particular mixing condition, related to the asymptotic independence of maxima defined by O'Brien, is satisfied, then the maximum behaves asymptotically like the quantile F←(1-1/n) whenever the marginal tail distribution decreases quickly enough. A necessary condition for the almost sure convergence of the maximum is derived. Applications are also discussed.

Consider a supercritical Crump‒Jagers process in which all births are at integer times (the lattice case). Let μ̂(z) be the generating function of the intensity of the offspring process, and consider the complex roots of μ̂(z)=1. The root of smallest absolute value is e-α=1∕m, where α>0 is the Malthusian parameter; let γ* be the root of second smallest absolute value. Subject to some technical conditions, the second-order fluctuations of the age distribution exhibit one of three types of behaviour: (i) when γ*>e-α∕2=m-1∕2, they are asymptotically normal; (ii) when γ*=e-α∕2, they are still asymptotically normal, but with a larger variance; and (iii) when γ*<e-α∕2, the fluctuations are in general oscillatory and (degenerate cases excluded) do not converge in distribution. This trichotomy is similar to what has been observed in related situations, such as some other branching processes and for Pólya urns. The results lead to a symbolic calculus describing the limits. The asymptotic results also apply to the total of other (random) characteristics of the population.

This paper investigates properties of the class of graphs based on exchangeable point processes. We provide asymptotic expressions for the number of edges, number of nodes, and degree distributions, identifying four regimes: (i) a dense regime, (ii) a sparse, almost dense regime, (iii) a sparse regime with power-law behaviour, and (iv) an almost extremely sparse regime. We show that, under mild assumptions, both the global and local clustering coefficients converge to constants which may or may not be the same. We also derive a central limit theorem for subgraph counts and for the number of nodes. Finally, we propose a class of models within this framework where one can separately control the latent structure and the global sparsity/power-law properties of the graph.

Distance measurements are useful tools in stochastic geometry. For a Boolean model Z in ℝd, the classical contact distribution functions allow the estimation of important geometric parameters of Z. In two previous papers, several types of generalized contact distributions have been investigated and applied to stationary and nonstationary Boolean models. Here, we consider random sets Z which are generated as the union sets of Poisson processes X of k-flats, k ∈ {0, …, d-1}, and study distances from a fixed point or a fixed convex body to Z. In addition, we also consider the distances from a given flat or a flag consisting of flats to the individual members of X and investigate the associated process of nearest points in the flats of X. In particular, we discuss to which extent the directional distribution of X is determined by this point process. Some of our results are presented for more general stationary processes of flats.

In this paper we compute the absorbing time Tn of an n-dimensional discrete-time Markov chain comprising n components, each with an absorbing state and evolving in mutual exclusion. We show that the random absorbing time Tn is well approximated by a deterministic time tn that is the first time when a fluid approximation of the chain approaches the absorbing state at a distance 1 / n. We provide an asymptotic expansion of tn that uses the spectral decomposition of the kernel of the chain as well as the asymptotic distribution of Tn, relying on extreme values theory. We show the applicability of this approach with three different problems: the coupon collector, the erasure channel lifetime, and the coupling times of random walks in high-dimensional spaces.

An rth-order extremal process Δ(r) = (Δ(r)t)t≥0 is a continuous-time analogue of the rth partial maximum sequence of a sequence of independent and identically distributed random variables. Studying maxima in continuous time gives rise to the notion of limiting properties of Δt(r) as t ↓ 0. Here we describe aspects of the small-time behaviour of Δ(r) by characterising its upper and lower classes relative to a nonstochastic nondecreasing function bt > 0 with limt↓bt = 0. We are then able to give an integral criterion for the almost sure relative stability of Δt(r) as t ↓ 0, r = 1, 2, . . ., or, equivalently, as it turns out, for the almost sure relative stability of Δt(1) as t ↓ 0.

We transpose the ordinary differential equation method (used for decreasing stepsize stochastic algorithms) to a dynamical system method to study dynamical systems disturbed by a noise decreasing to zero. We prove that such an algorithm does not fall into a regular trap if the noise is exciting in an unstable direction.

Learning from Matheron's representation (1973), and using the increment vector (PIV) methodology introduced by Cressie (1988) and developed by Chen and Anderson (1994), this paper presents a theory for the representation and decomposition of integrated stationary time series and gives some applications.

The dynamical aspects of single channel gating can be modelled by a Markov renewal process, with states aggregated into two classes corresponding to the receptor channel being open or closed, and with brief sojourns in either class not detected. This paper is concerned with the relation between the amount of time, for a given record, in which the channel appears to be open compared to the amount in which it is actually open and the difference in their proportions; this may be used to obtain information on the unobserved actual process from the observed one. Results, with extensions, on exponential families have been applied to obtain relevant generating functions and asymptotic normal distributions, including explicit forms for the parameters. Numerical results are given as illustration in special cases.

The problem treated is that of controlling a process with values in [0, a]. The non-anticipative controls (µ(t), σ(t)) are selected from a set C(x) whenever X(t–) = x and the non-decreasing process A(t) is chosen by the controller subject to the condition where y is a constant representing the initial amount of fuel. The object is to maximize the probability that X(t) reaches a. The optimal process is determined when the function has a unique minimum on [0, a] and satisfies certain regularity conditions. The optimal process is a combination of ‘timid play' in which fuel is used gradually in the form of local time at 0, and ‘bold play' in which all the fuel is used at once.

We consider a discrete-time branching random walk in the boundary case, where the associated random walk is in the domain of attraction of an α-stable law with 1 < α < 2. We prove that the derivative martingale Dn converges to a nontrivial limit D∞ under some regular conditions. We also study the additive martingale Wn and prove that n1/αWn converges in probability to a constant multiple of D∞.

In this paper we study the random walk on the hypercube (ℤ / 2ℤ)n which at each step flips k randomly chosen coordinates. We prove that the mixing time for this walk is of the order (n / k)logn. We also prove that if k = o(n) then the walk exhibits cutoff at (n / 2k)logn with window n / 2k.

We generalise the work of Cramér and Leadbetter, Ylvisaker and Ito on the level crossings of a stationary Gaussian process to multivariate processes. Necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of the expected number of crossings E(C) of the boundary of a region of ℝp by a stationary vector stochastic process are obtained, along with an explicit formula for E(C) in the Gaussian case. A rigorous proof of Belyaev's integral formula for the factorial moments of the number of exits from a region of ℝp is given for a class of processes which includes Gaussian processes having a finite second order spectral moment matrix. Applications to χ2 processes are briefly considered.

In this paper we consider the one-dimensional, biased, randomly trapped random walk with infinite-variance trapping times. We prove sufficient conditions for the suitably scaled walk to converge to a transformation of a stable Lévy process. As our main motivation, we apply subsequential versions of our results to biased walks on subcritical Galton–Watson trees conditioned to survive. This confirms the correct order of the fluctuations of the walk around its speed for values of the bias that yield a non-Gaussian regime.

Kingman [5] proved a formula that expresses the joint distribution of the processes where b is a regular point in the state space of a Hunt process. We give an extension of this formula, as well as several interesting facts related to it, for the case when Φ is any finely perfect subset of the state space. We also establish some connections between this result and results on last-exit decompositions.