We study the $R_\beta$-positivity and the existence of zero-temperature limits for a sequence of infinite-volume Gibbs measures $(\mu_{\beta}(\!\cdot\!))_{\beta \geq 0}$ at inverse temperature $\beta$ associated to a family of nearest-neighbor matrices $(Q_{\beta})_{\beta \geq 0}$ reflected at the origin. We use a probabilistic approach based on the continued fraction theory previously introduced in Ferrari and Martínez (1993) and sharpened in Littin and Martínez (2010). Some necessary and sufficient conditions are provided to ensure (i) the existence of a unique infinite-volume Gibbs measure for large but finite values of $\beta$, and (ii) the existence of weak limits as $\beta \to \infty$. Some application examples are revised to put in context the main results of this work.

Narrow escape and narrow capture problems which describe the average times required to stop the motion of a randomly travelling particle within a domain have applications in various areas of science. While for general domains, it is known how the escape time decreases with the increase of the trap sizes, for some specific 2D and 3D domains, higher-order asymptotic formulas have been established, providing the dependence of the escape time on the sizes and locations of the traps. Such results allow the use of global optimisation to seek trap arrangements that minimise average escape times. In a recent paper (Iyaniwura (2021) SIAM Rev. 63(3), 525–555), an explicit size- and trap location-dependent expansion of the average mean first passage time (MFPT) in a 2D elliptic domain was derived. The goal of this work is to systematically seek global minima of MFPT for $1\leq N\leq 50$ traps in elliptic domains using global optimisation techniques and compare the corresponding putative optimal trap arrangements for different values of the domain eccentricity. Further, an asymptotic formula for the average MFPT in elliptic domains with N circular traps of arbitrary sizes is derived, and sample optimal configurations involving non-equal traps are computed.

We consider two-dimensional Lévy processes reflected to stay in the positive quadrant. Our focus is on the non-standard regime when the mean of the free process is negative but the reflection vectors point away from the origin, so that the reflected process escapes to infinity along one of the axes. Under rather general conditions, it is shown that such behaviour is certain and each component can dominate the other with positive probability for any given starting position. Additionally, we establish the corresponding invariance principle providing justification for the use of the reflected Brownian motion as an approximate model. Focusing on the probability that the first component dominates, we derive a kernel equation for the respective Laplace transform in the starting position. This is done for the compound Poisson model with negative exponential jumps and, by means of approximation, for the Brownian model. Both equations are solved via boundary value problem analysis, which also yields the domination probability when starting at the origin. Finally, certain asymptotic analysis and numerical results are presented.

We prove concentration inequality results for geometric graph properties of an instance of the Cooper–Frieze [5] preferential attachment model with edge-steps. More precisely, we investigate a random graph model that at each time $t\in \mathbb{N}$ , with probability p adds a new vertex to the graph (a vertex-step occurs) or with probability $1-p$ an edge connecting two existent vertices is added (an edge-step occurs). We prove concentration results for the global clustering coefficient as well as the clique number. More formally, we prove that the global clustering, with high probability, decays as $t^{-\gamma(p)}$ for a positive function $\gamma$ of p, whereas the clique number of these graphs is, up to subpolynomially small factors, of order $t^{(1-p)/(2-p)}$ .

By now there is a solid theory for Polya urns. Finding the covariances is somewhat laborious. While these papers are “structural,” our purpose here is “computational.” We propose a practicable method for building the asymptotic covariance matrix in tenable balanced urn schemes, whereupon the asymptotic covariance matrix is obtained by solving a linear system of equations. We demonstrate the use of the method in growing tenable balanced irreducible schemes with a small index and in critical urns. In the critical case, the solution to the linear system of equations is explicit in terms of an eigenvector of the scheme.

We study propagation of avalanches in a certain excitable network. The model is a particular case of the one introduced by Larremore et al. (Phys. Rev. E, 2012) and is mathematically equivalent to an endemic variation of the Reed–Frost epidemic model introduced by Longini (Math. Biosci., 1980). Two types of heuristic approximation are frequently used for models of this type in applications: a branching process for avalanches of a small size at the beginning of the process and a deterministic dynamical system once the avalanche spreads to a significant fraction of a large network. In this paper we prove several results concerning the exact relation between the avalanche model and these limits, including rates of convergence and rigorous bounds for common characteristics of the model.

Let $\boldsymbol{f}$ be a square-integrable, zero-mean, random vector with observable realizations in a Hilbert space H, and let $\boldsymbol{g}$ be an associated square-integrable, zero-mean, random vector with realizations which are not observable in a Hilbert space K. We seek an optimal filter in the form of a closed linear operator X acting on the observable realizations of a proximate vector $\boldsymbol{f}_{\epsilon } \approx \boldsymbol{f}$ that provides the best estimate $\widehat{\boldsymbol{g}}_{\epsilon} = X \boldsymbol{f}_{\epsilon}$ of the vector $\boldsymbol{g}$ . We assume the required covariance operators are known. The results are illustrated with a typical example.

The directed preferential attachment model is revisited. A new exact characterization of the limiting in- and out-degree distribution is given by two independent pure birth processes that are observed at a common exponentially distributed time T (thus creating dependence between in- and out-degree). The characterization gives an explicit form for the joint degree distribution, and this confirms previously derived tail probabilities for the two marginal degree distributions. The new characterization is also used to obtain an explicit expression for tail probabilities in which both degrees are large. A new generalized directed preferential attachment model is then defined and analyzed using similar methods. The two extensions, motivated by empirical evidence, are to allow double-directed (i.e. undirected) edges in the network, and to allow the probability of connecting an ingoing (outgoing) edge to a specified node to also depend on the out-degree (in-degree) of that node.

Vibration energy harvesting aims to harness the energy of ambient random vibrations for power generation, particularly in small-scale devices. Typically, stochastic excitation driving the harvester is modelled as a Brownian process and the dynamics are studied in the equilibrium state. However, non-Brownian excitations are of interest, particularly in the nonequilibrium regime of the dynamics. In this work we study the nonequilibrium dynamics of a generic piezoelectric harvester driven by Brownian as well as (non-Brownian) Lévy flight excitation, both in the linear and the Duffing regimes. Both the monostable and the bistable cases of the Duffing regime are studied. The first set of results demonstrate that Lévy flight excitation results in higher expectation values of harvested power. In particular, it is shown that increasing the noise intensity leads to a significant increase in power output. It is also shown that a linearly coupled array of nonlinear harvesters yields improved power output for tailored values of coupling coefficients. The second set of results show that Lévy flight excitation fundamentally alters the bifurcation characteristics of the dynamics. Together, the results underscore the importance of non-Brownian excitation characterised by Lévy flight in vibration energy harvesting, both from a theoretical viewpoint and from the perspective of practical applications.

Many regenerative arguments in stochastic processes use random times which are akin to stopping times, but which are determined by the future as well as the past behaviour of the process of interest. Such arguments based on ‘conditioning on the future’ are usually developed in an ad-hoc way in the context of the application under consideration, thereby obscuring the underlying structure. In this paper we give a simple, unified, and more general treatment of such conditioning theory. We further give a number of novel applications to various particle system models, in particular to various flavours of contact processes and to infinite-bin models. We give a number of new results for existing and new models. We further make connections with the theory of Harris ergodicity.

Numerical solutions of a non-Fickian diffusion equation belonging to a hyperbolic type are presented in one space dimension. The Brownian particle modelled by this diffusion equation is subjected to a symmetric periodic potential whose spatial shape can be varied by a single parameter. We consider a numerical method which consists of applying Laplace transform in time; we then obtain an elliptic diffusion equation which is discretized using a finite difference method. We analyze some aspects of the convergence of the method. Numerical results for particle density, flux and mean-square-displacement (covering both inertial and diffusive regimes) are presented.

A simple model for a randomly oscillating variable is suggested, which is a variant of the two-state random velocity model. As in the latter model, the variable keeps rising or falling with constant velocity for some time before randomly reversing its direction. In contrast however, its propensity to reverse depends on its current value and it is for this desirable feature that the model is proposed here. This feature has two implications: (a) neither the changing variable nor its velocity is Markovian, although the joint process is, and (b) the linear differential equations arising in the case of our model do not have constant coefficients. The results given in this paper are meant to illustrate the straightforward nature of some of the calculations involved and to highlight the relationship with one-dimensional diffusions.

We consider the two-dimensional version of a drainage network model introduced in Gangopadhyay, Roy and Sarkar (2004), and show that the appropriately rescaled family of its paths converges in distribution to the Brownian web. We do so by verifying the convergence criteria proposed in Fontes, Isopi, Newman and Ravishankar (2002).

In this paper a limit theorem is proved that establishes conditions under which the distribution of the difference between the size of the initial event in a random sequence, modeled as a finite point process, and the largest subsequent event approaches a limiting form independent of the size of the initial event. The underlying assumptions are that the sizes of the individual events follow an exponential distribution, that the expected total number of events increases exponentially with the size of the initial event, and that the structure of the sequence approximates that of a Poisson process. Particular cases to which the results apply include sequences of independent and identically distributed exponential variables, and the epidemic-type aftershock (ETAS) branching process model in the subcritical case. In all these cases the form of the limit distribution is shown to be that of a double exponential (type-I extreme value distribution). In sampling from a family of aftershock sequences, with possibly different underlying parameters, the limit distribution is a mixture of such double exponential distributions. The conditions for the simple limit to exist relate to the approximation of the distribution of the number of events by a Poisson distribution. One such condition requires the coefficient of variation (ratio of standard deviation to mean) of the number of events to converge to 0 as the mean increases. The results provide a statistical background to Båth's law in seismology, which asserts that in an aftershock sequence the magnitude of the main shock is commonly around 1.2 units higher than the magnitude of the largest aftershock.

The problem of finding the probability distribution of the first hitting time of a double integral process (DIP) such as the integrated Wiener process (IWP) has been an important and difficult endeavor in stochastic calculus. It has applications in many fields of physics (first exit time of a particle in a noisy force field) or in biology and neuroscience (spike time distribution of an integrate-and-fire neuron with exponentially decaying synaptic current). The only results available are an approximation of the stationary mean crossing time and the distribution of the first hitting time of the IWP to a constant boundary. We generalize these results and find an analytical formula for the first hitting time of the IWP to a continuous piecewise-cubic boundary. We use this formula to approximate the law of the first hitting time of a general DIP to a smooth curved boundary, and we provide an estimation of the convergence of this method. The accuracy of the approximation is computed in the general case for the IWP and the effective calculation of the crossing probability can be carried out through a Monte Carlo method.

In many applications, such as remote sensing or wave slamming on ships and offshore structures, it is important to have a good model for wave slope. Today, most models are based on the assumption that the sea surface is well described by a Gaussian random field. However, since the Gaussian model does not capture several important features of real ocean waves, e.g. the asymmetry of crests and troughs, it may lead to unconservative safety estimates. An alternative is to use a stochastic Lagrangian wave model. Few studies have been carried out on the Lagrangian model; in particular, very little is known about its probabilistic properties. Therefore, in this paper we derive expressions for the level-crossing intensity of the Lagrangian sea surface, which has the interpretation of wave intensity, as well as the distribution of the wave slope at an arbitrary crossing. These results are then compared to the corresponding intensity and distribution of slope for the Gaussian model.

In this paper telegraph processes on geodesic lines of the Poincaré half-space and Poincaré disk are introduced and the behavior of their hyperbolic distances examined. Explicit distributions of the processes are obtained and the related governing equations derived. By means of the processes on geodesic lines, planar random motions (with independent components) in the Poincaré half-space and disk are defined and their hyperbolic random distances studied. The limiting case of one-dimensional and planar motions together with their hyperbolic distances is discussed with the aim of establishing connections with the well-known stochastic representations of hyperbolic Brownian motion. Extensions of motions with finite velocity to the three-dimensional space are also hinted at, in the final section.

Gaussian wave models have been successfully used since the early 1950s to describe the development of random sea waves, particularly as input to dynamic simulation of the safety of ships and offshore structures. A drawback of the Gaussian model is that it produces stochastically symmetric waves, which is an unrealistic feature and can lead to unconservative safety estimates. The Gaussian model describes the height of the sea surface at each point as a function of time and space. The Lagrange wave model describes the horizontal and vertical movements of individual water particles as functions of time and original location. This model is physically based, and a stochastic version has recently been advocated as a realistic model for asymmetric water waves. Since the stochastic Lagrange model treats both the vertical and the horizontal movements as Gaussian processes, it can be analysed using methods from the Gaussian theory. In this paper we present an analysis of the stochastic properties of the first-order stochastic Lagrange waves model, both as functions of time and as functions of space. A Slepian model for the description of the random shape of individual waves is also presented and analysed.

In this work, we study some geometrical properties of a stationary Gaussian field modeling the sea surface, using the energy spectrum. We consider the length of a crest and the mean speed of contours, which can be expressed as integrals over level sets. We also give central limit theorems for some of these quantities, using chaos expansions.

A continuous-time random walk is a simple random walk subordinated to a renewal process used in physics to model anomalous diffusion. In this paper we show that, when the time between renewals has infinite mean, the scaling limit is an operator Lévy motion subordinated to the hitting time process of a classical stable subordinator. Density functions for the limit process solve a fractional Cauchy problem, the generalization of a fractional partial differential equation for Hamiltonian chaos. We also establish a functional limit theorem for random walks with jumps in the strict generalized domain of attraction of a full operator stable law, which is of some independent interest.