This paper studies retirement and child support policies in a small, open, overlapping-generations economy with PAYG social security and endogenous retirement and fertility decisions. It demonstrates that neither fertility nor retirement choices necessarily coincide with socially optimal allocation, because agents do not take into account the externalities of fertility and the elderly labor supply in the economy as a whole. It shows that governments can realize the first-best allocation by introducing a child allowance scheme and a subsidy to incentivize the labor supply of older workers. As an alternative to subsidizing the elderly labor supply, we show that the first-best allocation can also be achieved by controlling the retirement age. Finally, the model is simulated in order to study whether the policies devoted to realizing the social optimum in a market economy could be a Pareto improvement.

A review of the literature suggests that when pension values are measured by the wealth equivalent of promised defined benefit pension benefits and defined contribution balances for those approaching retirement, pensions account for more support in retirement than is suggested when their contribution is measured by incomes received directly from pension plans by those who have already retired. Estimates from the Health and Retirement Study for respondents in their early fifties suggest that pension wealth is about 82% as valuable as Social Security wealth. In data from the Current Population Survey (CPS), for members of the same cohort, measured when they are 65–69, pension incomes are about 58% as valuable as incomes from Social Security. Our empirical analysis uses data from the HRS to examine the reasons for these differences in the contributions of pensions as measured in income and wealth data. Key factors accounting for these differences include: a difference in methodology between surveys affecting what is included in pension income; some pension wealth ‘disappears’ at retirement because respondents change their pension into other forms that are not counted as pension income; and the form of annuitization may influence the measure of pension income. A series of caveats notwithstanding, the bottom line is that CPS data on pension incomes received in retirement understates the full contribution pensions make to supporting retirees.

We have designed and implemented an experimental module in the 2014 Health and Retirement Study to measure older persons' willingness to defer claiming of Social Security benefits. Under the current system’ status quo where delaying claiming boosts eventual benefits, we show that 46% of the respondents would delay claiming and work longer. If respondents were instead offered an actuarially fair lump sum payment instead of higher lifelong benefits, about 56% indicate they would delay claiming. Without a work requirement, the average amount needed to induce delayed claiming is only $60,400, while when part-time work is stipulated, the amount is slightly higher, $66,700. This small difference implies a low utility value of leisure foregone, of under 20% of average household income.

When compared with wage earners, the self-employed are reported to have a lower take up rate of tax-favored retirement plans in the United States. Using panel data from federal income tax returns for the years 1999–2006, this paper explores the various factors that shape the observed pattern of contributions to such plans by the self-employed. Consistent with previous findings in the literature, contributions rise with income, tax rates, as well as savings in taxable accounts. More interestingly, the novel findings in this paper address the role that debt plays in shaping contributions. While housing and business-related debts are accorded similar tax treatment, the findings show that contributions decline with business debt whereas they rise with household debt.

The under-development of existing annuity markets coupled with the secular trend away from traditional pensions towards defined contribution accounts in the U.S. raises significant concerns about the adequacy of retirement income for future retirees. We develop dynamic programming techniques to evaluate the efficacy of policies designed to address this concern by encouraging annuitization. Our analysis suggests that policies providing monetary incentives through the tax code can indeed significantly enhance annuitization among retirees: our central estimates suggest that tax-exemption based policies which have been recently proposed in Congress have the potential to increase annuitization by as much as $50,000 for each retired household, at a relatively modest revenue cost to the government. Similar sized policies based instead on refundable tax credits may be more desirable from both efficiency and distributional perspectives.

As part of the pension reform recently approved in Chile, the government introduced a centralized auction mechanism to provide the Disability and Survivors (D&S) Insurance that covers recent contributors among the more than eight million participants in the mandatory private pension system. This paper is intended as a case study presenting the main distortions found in the decentralized operation of the system that led to this reform and the challenges faced when designing a competitive auction mechanism to be implemented jointly by the Pension Fund Managers (AFP). When each AFP independently hired this insurance with an insurance company, the process was not competitive: colligated companies ended up providing the service and distortions affected competition in the market through incentives to cream-skim members, efforts to block disability claims, lack of price transparency, and the insurance contract acting as a barrier to entry. Cross-subsidies, inefficient risk pooling, and regulatory arbitrage were also present. The Chilean experience is relevant since other privatized systems with decentralized provision of this insurance may show similar problems as they mature. A centralized auction mechanism solves these market failures, but also gives raise to new challenges, such as how to design a competitive auction that attracts participation and deters collusion. Design features that were incorporated into the regulation to tackle these issues are presented here.

One of the major findings of this paper, which studied the multiplier effects of pensions received at each Portuguese municipality since 2003, is that pensions stimulate the incomes of municipalities. We studied these effects also considering the spillovers from/to the surrounding areas. After discussing several models of spatial analysis, we chose the Dynamic Spatial Durbin Model. Our results were obtained after considering a proper set of control variables.

We analyse annuitization rates by policyholders with individual deferred annuities in Korea to assess the impact of different tax policies on payout decisions between 2008 and 2011. Under the Korean tax system, two types of individual deferred annuities were sold: qualified (taxed for lump sums) and non-qualified (tax free for lump sums). Our results show that policyholders with qualified contracts are more likely to select a life annuity option than a lump-sum distribution, compared to policyholders of non-qualified contracts. This suggests that policyholders are more likely to use non-qualified contracts as savings vehicles than as longevity insurance.

Current and expected demographic and economic trends are likely to jeopardize the financial sustainability of the French retirement pension scheme, which mainly operates on a pay-as-you-go basis. In 1999, the French government set up a Pension Reserve Fund (Fonds de réserve pour les retraites, FRR) the main objective of which was to introduce some public funding in the PAYG basic pension scheme to cope with its expected financial unsustainability within the next decade. This paper presents some simulation results on the projected evolution of the French Pension Reserve Fund under various assumptions. The main idea is to optimize the profile of the trend in contribution rates needed to meet the objective of a balanced basic pension scheme over the period 2006–2050. Our simulations show that under plausible assumptions the amount of funding is likely to be less important than the Government expected at the FRR set up, about 100 billion euros. Some stress tests show that severe shocks on financial markets may dramatically affect the funding profile of the FRR beyond 2045.

This paper summarizes recent developments in Dutch occupational pensions of both the defined contribution and defined benefit (DB) types. A reform of DB schemes is discussed that introduces financial assets as individual entitlements. At the same time, the reformed schemes derive (dis)saving, financial risk management and insurance decisions from the explicit objective of adequate and stable lifelong retirement income. The proposed system also involves an insurance contract pooling longevity risks and possibly collective buffers that share systematic risks with future pension savers. The paper identifies the strengths and weaknesses of the Dutch contract design and draws lessons for other countries.

We examine the connection between taxes paid and benefits accrued under the Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI) program on both the intensive and extensive margins. We perform these calculations for stylized workers given the existing benefit structure and disability hazard rates. On the intensive margin, we examine the effect of an additional dollar of earnings on the marginal payroll taxes contributed and future benefits earned. We find that the present discounted value of disability benefits received from an additional dollar of earnings, net of the SSDI payroll tax, generally declines with age, becoming negative around age 40 and reaching almost zero at age 63. On the extensive margin, we determine the effect of working an additional year on the additional payroll taxes and future benefits as a percentage of income. The return to working an additional year at an income level just large enough to earn Social Security credits for the year is large and positive through age 60. However, the return to working an additional full year is substantially smaller and becomes negative at approximately age 57. Thus, older workers face strong incentives to earn enough to obtain creditable coverage through age 60, but they face disincentives for additional earnings. In addition, workers aged 61 and older face work disincentives at any level of earnings. We repeat this analysis for stylized workers at different levels of earnings and find that, while the program transfers resources from high earners to low earners, the workers experience similar patterns in the returns to working.

This paper analyses the thrust of the UK Government's pension reforms in the context of the system they inherited. The reforms represent continuity with what went before in seeking to continue the privatisation of pension provision, but herald a new emphasis on pensioner poverty reduction. There is a clear broad strategy even though not all of the reforms fit obviously within it – a generous means-tested system, extensive private provision and a diminished contributory pension. In the long term, this strategy has advantages in terms of containing public sector liabilities, but involves further downgrading the contributory principle. It will also affect the incentive to save for many individuals. Individuals currently on means-tested benefits will be able to keep more of their savings as a result of the reform. But those currently outside the means-tested benefit regime who expect to be brought into it as a result of the reforms will face a diminished incentive to save.

The main goal of the Norwegian pension reform of 2011 is to improve long run fiscal sustainability, not least through stronger labour supply incentives. We assess to what extent the reform is likely to live up to these intentions. To this end we combine a dynamic microsimulation model, which includes a complete description of the Norwegian population and the pension system, with CGE-modelling of the effects on all government revenues and expenditures. We find that the reform is likely to make a great fiscal impact in the long run, and higher employment plays an important role in this respect.

This paper evaluates the macroeconomic and welfare effects of extending the averaging period used to calculate pension benefits in a pay-as-you-go system. It also examines the complementarities between reforms extending the averaging period and those increasing the retirement age under alternative tax policies. The analysis applies a model in the Auerbach-Kotlikoff tradition to the Spanish economy. Extending the averaging period to the entire work life maximizes long-run welfare and limits expenditure pressures at the peak of the demographic shock as much as increasing the retirement age in line with life expectancy. Moreover, during the demographic transition, pension reforms induce intertemporal labor substitution effects that engender aggregate labor cycles.

The pension system brings challenges in many high-income countries. While the system was set up at the time of economic growth, policymakers are facing both economic slowdown and aging population. Moreover, there is an incentive mis-match between short to medium term popularity and re-election versus taking necessary decisions to affect long-term sustainability of the system. In a small open economy, the situation is further accentuated by high volatility driven by migrations and cross-borders workers. This paper aims to address the policymakers’ challenges and develops an innovative model, whose main contribution is the way it reflects the cross-border workers’ contribution and impact. Therefore, it allows to not only assess the state liabilities, but also the evolution of the age pyramid with a significant portion of new migrants and cross-border workers, considering the high volatility of workers. It also provides an approach to analyze issues at stake and remove decision biases faced by politicians through policy options and their impact under various economic scenarios. With the model in hand, we analyze three different scenarios for the future evolution of Luxembourg's pension system. In all three scenarios, the results reflect a significant imbalance of the pension system over time (to 2060), going from 1.6% of gross domestic product (GDP) surplus in the best scenario to 14.2% of GDP deficit in the worst scenario. The probability of this worst scenario is related with a worsening of the economic situation, with job destruction and a drop in economic growth impacting cross-border commuters and net migrations.

The rare annuitization, thin immediate annuity market, and date limitation have prevented the attempts to analyze the longevity insurance market in Korea. The purpose of this paper is to examine the relative value of Korean annuity rates to theoretical ones and to provide a new evidence on the function of the voluntary annuity market in terms of the money's worth ratio (MWR). Our results show that the immediate annuity market in Korea is reasonably efficient. For example, the money's worth ratio of an immediate annuity of a 10-year guarantee period for a 65-year-old male is estimated to be about 0.8 with the general population mortality rate, while it improves to 0.9 with the annuitant mortality table. Average MWR is similar to that of other countries with thin annuity market, which show that annuitants in Korea pay a comparable cost to that in other countries.

We examine the investment performance of Chilean pension funds during their multi-fund period (2003–17). Using tradable asset class benchmarks, we extend Sharpe's (1992) return-based style analysis by explicitly considering regulatory restrictions and currency hedging. We find that despite the significant differences between pension fund manager returns, they are statistically similar to our style benchmarks for all fund types. Furthermore, accounting for currency hedging improves the accuracy of the replicating portfolios and the selection return estimates. Our results have policy implications for investment regulation of pension systems with similar characteristics to the Chilean one.

Social Security is a financial asset whose ‘purchase’ is compulsory for most working individuals. This paper shows that the return on Social Security during the individual's working lifetime is related to the rate of change of aggregate labor income. If an individual's labor income is strongly related to aggregate labor income, then the Social Security asset is a particularly unattractive asset. In this situation, the individual would benefit from a reformed Social Security system that would permit investment of retirement funds in other financial assets. This paper investigates how this aspect of Social Security risk varies across groups of individuals who differ according to gender; education; race; and age. The main finding is that there are important differences across groups in this component of Social Security risk, as captured by the sensitivity of individual-level income growth to changes in the SSWI. This element of risk is most important for women, especially women who are young-to-middle aged and with more education. This analysis suggests that women would have more to gain, compared with men, from a reformed Social Security system.

Using detailed spending and time use data from the Netherlands, this paper analyzes the causal effect of retirement on spending and time use decisions. Both total consumption and disaggregated consumption categories are considered. We do not find empirical evidence for drops in households' total non-durable spending at retirement. Our estimates suggest increases in spending at retirement on goods that are complementary to leisure, but no decreases in spending on goods that are replaceable by home production. The quantitative implication of our empirical results for the Life-Cycle Model is an intertemporal elasticity of substitution for leisure below unity.

This paper examines retirement saving policy for independent – or contingent – workers, a growing segment of the workforce. Because few of these workers are covered by employer-sponsored retirement plans, they often do not benefit from payroll deduction, employer matching contributions, automatic enrollment, and other provisions that encourage retirement saving. Better use of fintech, judicious changes to tax policy, and expanded Automatic IRAs would help independent workers save for retirement. In addition, we propose the creation of retirement saving accounts that attach to the worker as a supplement to, and possible replacement for, the current system of employer-sponsored accounts.