Define a γ-reflected process Wγ(t) = YH(t) - γinfs∈[0,t]YH(s), t ≥ 0, with input process {YH(t), t ≥ 0}, which is a fractional Brownian motion with Hurst index H ∈ (0, 1) and a negative linear trend. In risk theory Rγ(u) = u - Wγ(t), t ≥ 0, is referred to as the risk process with tax payments of a loss-carry-forward type. For various risk processes, numerous results are known for the approximation of the first and last passage times to 0 (ruin times) when the initial reserve u goes to ∞. In this paper we show that, for the γ-reflected process, the conditional (standardized) first and last passage times are jointly asymptotically Gaussian and completely dependent. An important contribution of this paper is that it links ruin problems with extremes of nonhomogeneous Gaussian random fields defined by YH, which we also investigate.

In this paper we investigate optimal forms of dynamic reinsurance polices among a class of general reinsurance strategies. The original surplus process of an insurance portfolio is assumed to follow a Markov jump process with state-dependent income. We assume that the insurer uses a dynamic reinsurance policy to minimize the probability of absolute ruin, where the traditional ruin can be viewed as a special case of absolute ruin. In terms of approximation theory of stochastic process, the controlled diffusion model with a general reinsurance policy is established strictly. In such a risk model, absolute ruin is said to occur when the drift coefficient of the surplus process turns negative, when the insurer has no profitability any more. Under the expected value premium principle, we rigorously prove that a dynamic excess-of-loss reinsurance is the optimal form of reinsurance among a class of general reinsurance strategies in a dynamic control framework. Moreover, by solving the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation, we derive both the explicit expression of the optimal dynamic excess-of-loss reinsurance strategy and the closed-form solution to the absolute ruin probability under the optimal reinsurance strategy. We also illustrate these explicit solutions using numerical examples.

In this paper we study a weak law of large numbers for the total internal length of the Bolthausen-Sznitman coalescent, thereby obtaining the weak limit law of the centered and rescaled total external length; this extends results obtained in Dhersin and Möhle (2013). An application to population genetics dealing with the total number of mutations in the genealogical tree is also given.

We propose a discrete state-space model for storage of urban stormwater in two connected dams using an optimal pump-to-fill policy to transfer water from the capture dam to the holding dam. We assume stochastic supply to the capture dam and independent stochastic demand from the holding dam. We find new analytic formulae to calculate steady-state probabilities for the contents of each dam and thereby enable operators to better understand system behaviour. We illustrate our methods by considering some particular examples and discuss extension of our analysis to a series of three connected dams.

In this paper we derive mixture representations for the reliability functions of the conditional residual life and inactivity time of a coherent system with n independent and identically distributed components. Based on these mixture representations we carry out stochastic comparisons on the conditional residual life, and the inactivity time of two coherent systems with independent and identical components.

In this paper we study a reinsurance game between two insurers whose surplus processes are modeled by arithmetic Brownian motions. We assume a minimax criterion in the game. One insurer tries to maximize the probability of absolute dominance while the other tries to minimize it through reinsurance control. Here absolute dominance is defined as the event that liminf of the difference of the surplus levels tends to -∞. Under suitable parameter conditions, the game is solved with the value function and the Nash equilibrium strategy given in explicit form.

This paper is an investigation into the reliability and stochastic properties of three-state networks. We consider a single-step network consisting of n links and we assume that the links are subject to failure. We assume that the network can be in three states, up (K = 2), partial performance (K = 1), and down (K = 0). Using the concept of the two-dimensional signature, we study the residual lifetimes of the networks under different scenarios on the states and the number of failed links of the network. In the process of doing so, we define variants of the concept of the dynamic signature in a bivariate setting. Then, we obtain signature based mixture representations of the reliability of the residual lifetimes of the network states under the condition that the network is in state K = 2 (or K = 1) and exactly k links in the network have failed. We prove preservation theorems showing that stochastic orderings and dependence between the elements of the dynamic signatures (which relies on the network structure) are preserved by the residual lifetimes of the states of the network (which relies on the network ageing). Various illustrative examples are also provided.

The probability h(n, m) that the block counting process of the Bolthausen-Sznitman n-coalescent ever visits the state m is analyzed. It is shown that the asymptotic hitting probabilities h(m) = limn→∞h(n, m), m ∈ N, exist and an integral formula for h(m) is provided. The proof is based on generating functions and exploits a certain convolution property of the Bolthausen-Sznitman coalescent. It follows that h(m) ∼ 1/log m as m → ∞. An application to linear recursions is indicated.

We study a renewal risk model in which the surplus process of the insurance company is modelled by a compound fractional Poisson process. We establish the long-range dependence property of this nonstationary process. Some results for ruin probabilities are presented under various assumptions on the distribution of the claim sizes.

Let {Zn}n≥0 be a random walk with a negative drift and independent and identically distributed increments with heavy-tailed distribution, and let M = supn≥0Zn be its supremum. Asmussen and Klüppelberg (1996) considered the behavior of the random walk given that M > x for large x, and obtained a limit theorem, as x → ∞, for the distribution of the quadruple that includes the time τ = τ(x) to exceed level x, position Zτ at this time, position Zτ-1 at the prior time, and the trajectory up to it (similar results were obtained for the Cramér-Lundberg insurance risk process). We obtain here several extensions of this result to various regenerative-type models and, in particular, to the case of a random walk with dependent increments. Particular attention is given to describing the limiting conditional behavior of τ. The class of models includes Markov-modulated models as particular cases. We also study fluid models, the Björk-Grandell risk process, give examples where the order of τ is genuinely different from the random walk case, and discuss which growth rates are possible. Our proofs are purely probabilistic and are based on results and ideas from Asmussen, Schmidli and Schmidt (1999), Foss and Zachary (2002), and Foss, Konstantopoulos and Zachary (2007).

The yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae has emerged as an ideal model system to study the dynamics of prion proteins which are responsible for a number of fatal neurodegenerative diseases in humans. Within an infected cell, prion proteins aggregate in complexes which may increase in size or be fragmented and are transmitted upon cell division. Recent work in yeast suggests that only aggregates below a critical size are transmitted efficiently. We formulate a continuous-time branching process model of a yeast colony under conditions of prion curing. We generalize previous approaches by providing an explicit formula approximating prion loss as influenced by both aggregate growth and size-dependent transmission.

In this paper we consider a one dimensional stochastic system described by an elliptic equation. A spatially varying random coefficient is introduced to account for uncertainty or imprecise measurements. We model the logarithm of this coefficient by a Gaussian process and provide asymptotic approximations of the tail probabilities of the derivative of the solution.

In this short article we will provide a sufficient and necessary condition to have uniqueness of the location of the maximum of a stochastic process over an interval. The result will also express the mean value of the location in terms of the derivative of the expectation of the maximum of a linear perturbation of the underlying process. As an application, we will consider a Brownian motion with variable drift. The ideas behind the method of proof will also be useful to study the location of the maximum, over the real line, of a two-sided Brownian motion minus a parabola and of a stationary process minus a parabola.

We establish a connection between epidemic models on random networks with general infection times considered in Barbour and Reinert (2013) and first passage percolation. Using techniques developed in Bhamidi, van der Hofstad and Hooghiemstra (2012), when each vertex has infinite contagious periods, we extend results on the epidemic curve in Barbour and Reinert (2013) from bounded degree graphs to general sparse random graphs with degrees having finite second moments as n → ∞, with an appropriate X2log+X condition. We also study the epidemic trail between the source and typical vertices in the graph.

Many complex systems can be modeled via Markov jump processes. Applications include chemical reactions, population dynamics, and telecommunication networks. Rare-event estimation for such models can be difficult and is often computationally expensive, because typically many (or very long) paths of the Markov jump process need to be simulated in order to observe the rare event. We present a state-dependent importance sampling approach to this problem that is adaptive and uses Markov chain Monte Carlo to sample from the zero-variance importance sampling distribution. The method is applicable to a wide range of Markov jump processes and achieves high accuracy, while requiring only a small sample to obtain the importance parameters. We demonstrate its efficiency through benchmark examples in queueing theory and stochastic chemical kinetics.

We study the long-time behaviour of a Markov process evolving in N and conditioned not to hit 0. Assuming that the process comes back quickly from ∞, we prove that the process admits a unique quasistationary distribution (in particular, the distribution of the conditioned process admits a limit when time goes to ∞). Moreover, we prove that the distribution of the process converges exponentially fast in the total variation norm to its quasistationary distribution and we provide a bound for the rate of convergence. As a first application of our result, we bring a new insight on the speed of convergence to the quasistationary distribution for birth-and-death processes: we prove that starting from any initial distribution the conditional probability converges in law to a unique distribution ρ supported in N* if and only if the process has a unique quasistationary distribution. Moreover, ρ is this unique quasistationary distribution and the convergence is shown to be exponentially fast in the total variation norm. Also, considering the lack of results on quasistationary distributions for nonirreducible processes on countable spaces, we show, as a second application of our result, the existence and uniqueness of a quasistationary distribution for a class of possibly nonirreducible processes.

We study the properties of the multivariate skew normal distribution as an approximation to the distribution of the sum of n independent, identically distributed random vectors. More precisely, we establish conditions ensuring that the uniform distance between the two distribution functions converges to 0 at a rate of n-2/3. The advantage over the corresponding normal approximation is particularly relevant when the summands are skewed and n is small, as illustrated for the special case of exponentially distributed random variables. Applications to some well-known multivariate distributions are also discussed.

We construct random fields with Pólya-type autocorrelation function and dampened Pólya cross-correlation function. The marginal distribution of the random fields may be taken as any infinitely divisible distribution with finite variance, and the random fields are fully characterized in terms of their joint characteristic function. This makes available a new class of non-Gaussian random fields with flexible correlation structure for use in modeling and estimation.

We consider a one-dimensional discrete symmetric random walk with a reflecting boundary at the origin. Generating functions are found for the two-dimensional probability distribution P{Sn = x, max1≤j≤nSn = a} of being at position x after n steps, while the maximal location that the walker has achieved during these n steps is a. We also obtain the familiar (marginal) one-dimensional distribution for Sn = x, but more importantly that for max1≤j≤nSj = a asymptotically at fixed a2 / n. We are able to compute and compare the expectations and variances of the two one-dimensional distributions, finding that they have qualitatively similar forms, but differ quantitatively in the anticipated fashion.

Consider a random multigraph G* with given vertex degrees d1,…, dn, constructed by the configuration model. We give a new proof of the fact that, asymptotically for a sequence of such multigraphs with the number of edges the probability that the multigraph is simple stays away from 0 if and only if The new proof uses the method of moments, which makes it possible to use it in some applications concerning convergence in distribution. Corresponding results for bipartite graphs are included.