Market hog prices historically have shown great variation and have often followed a cyclical pattern. Franzmann (1979) finds evidence of a four-year and a twenty-eight-year cycle in hog prices. Price cycles imply the possibility of forecasting long-range prices. In turn, forecasting suggests the opportunity to vary the production or marketing process in order to maximize profits.

The paper discusses the linkages between the “globalization” of agricultural markets over recent decades and the decisions being made by individual farmers and ranchers in the United States. It is noted that technological advances lead to globalization of agricultural commodity markets and profit pressures. The continuing profit squeeze in agricultural production is having a significant effect on the cropping choices of America's farmers. When possible, acreage is being shifted out of low-revenue-generating crops and into higher-revenue-generating crops. This shift makes crop portfolios more risky over time, thus encouraging farmers to consider diversifying out of agriculture.

Recycling irrigation water can provide water during periods of drought for horticulture operations and can reduce nonpoint-source pollution, but water recycling increases production costs and can increase risk of disease infestation from waterborne pathogens such as Pythium and Phytophthora. This study of water recycling adoption by horticultural growers in Virginia, Maryland, and Pennsylvania finds that the potential for increased disease infestation would reduce growers’ probability of adopting water recycling. Widespread adoption of recycling irrigation water would require government incentives or coercion or growers’ ability to pass cost increases on to customers.

This study evaluates the farmland price forecasts provided by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago's Land Values and Credit Conditions Survey from 1991: quarter 1 (Q1) through 2016: Q1. Prior studies have demonstrated that similar surveys of agricultural bankers provide accurate predictions of the direction of future farm real estate values through qualitative forecast evaluation. This study extends the existing knowledge base by converting the qualitative responses to quantitative expectations. The quantified expectations are then subjected to additional forecast optimality tests, which suggest that the forecasts are unbiased but inefficient.

The dairy industries in California, Idaho, and New Mexico expanded rapidly during the early 2000s. This study focuses on the expansion effects on milk-to-hay price responsiveness. Dairy industry expansion makes hay markets tighter, with less available marketable supply in most periods. The empirical models account for the expansion effect as well as those from hay exports and low stocks-to-use ratios that also cause changes in hay market demand characteristics. The results show that hay-to-milk price responsiveness increased after dairy expansion in all analyzed states. Low stocks-to-use and high exports dampened the responsiveness, but were not statistically significant for all analyzed states.

In June 1991, the United States and Mexico agreed to work toward the formation of a free trade area (FTA), in which trade barriers between the two countries will be gradually reduced and eUrninated. An FTA is expected to deepen a trade relationship that has always been important to the two countries, and which has been expanded by the unilateral trade liberalization initiated by Mexico in 1983. A U.S. Mexico FTA will be an important development for U.S. agriculture. In 1990, Mexico ranked among the top four markets for U.S. agricultural exports nd imports. Mexico's share of U.S. agricultural trade has increased since the mid-1980s, and could expand further if trade barriers are removed.

The beef cattle industry in the Southeast is dominated by the cow-calf enterprise. Considerable discussion and research has addressed the economic potential of producers in the Southeast carrying calves longer on pasture rather than shipping them to other regions for stockering and backgrounding. Some have suggested that the region has a comparative advantage for increased grain and grass finishing of animals (Farris and Dietrich). At the firm level, the decision to retain calves must be based, among other things, on the availability of forage and on current and expected prices. The longer calves are kept, the greater the competition between cows and calves for available forage.

Events of the past two years, specifically the agricultural price explosion of 1973, have strongly emphasized the growing interdependency of countries in the production, consumption and trade in agricultural products. The illusion of a closed agricultural economy has been dealt a series of severe blows. The world monetary crisis, the dollar devaluations, and sharply increased foreign demand for U.S. commodities have suggested that there is a single world market for basic commodities.

Use of debt in financing agricultural firms is an issue of perennial interest. Much of this interest reflects farmers’ disastrous experience with debt during the Great Depression. The foreclosed mortgages and bankruptcies of that era reaffirmed an historical feeling that achieving a level of zero debt or financial leverage was a high priority goal. E. G. Johnson, who was Chief of the Economic and Credit Research Division of the Farm Credit Administration, articulated the position in the 1940 Yearbook of Agriculture that this goal is even more important than increasing profits: “It may be well to emphasize again that while credit properly used may help farmers to increase their income and raise their standard of living, the fact must not be overlooked that more credit will not cure all the ills of agriculture. The greatest need is to assist the farmers in getting out of debt, not deeper into it,” [6, p. 754]. As memories of the Great Depression faded, agricultural economists tended to emphasize the effect of debt on farm size and therefore net income.

The role of the economist in agriculture has increased in significance in the 1970s and 80s. A review of the recent history of agriculture begins with the period of stability and relative certainty of agricultural input and product prices in the 1950s. But by the 1970s, the economic impacts of the oil crisis, inflation, and orientation to free market prices of agricultural products necessitated a transition in the role and importance of the agricultural economist. Economists became vital to farmers who had to make economic decisions on appropriate cropping patterns, when and how to market products, and how to invest wisely.

The product-product relationship has been a traditional subject of most production economics and farm management courses for the past two decades. Although the traditional examples of product-product optimization have come primarily from the agricultural production sector (e.g., legume-corn rotations and crop-livestock combinations), the concept is useful in analyzing the organization of any multi-product firm-including those firms which produce externalities in the form of environmental degradation.

Three concepts or ideas usually are offered as giving rise to a positively sloped or complementary range on the product transformation surface-(l) one production process uses as an input a by-product of another production process, (2) one process uses quantities of a factor that are “surplus” to another, or (3) technical interaction (production function shifts) occurs.

The Food Stamp Act of 1964 (with subsequent amendments) charges the U.S. Department of Agriculture with extending the benefits of the program to all households willing and eligible to participate. This duty was reinforced by a federal court ruling in 1975 (Beckel and MacDonald; Bennett et al. vs. Butz et al.).

Because of the importance of the Food Stamp Program (FSP), numerous studies have been conducted to gauge its intended effectiveness. Areas of study have included nutritional benefits of the program, impact on food expenditures, identification of ways to improve the rate of program participation, and identification of socioeconomic characteristics that may be important indicators of participation or nonparticipation in the program (for example, see Davis and Neenan; Lane; Neenan and Davis 1977, 1978; Salathe; Scearce et al.; Smith and Rowe; West; USDA, 1976, 1978).

The problem of scheduling input applications can be examined by extending conventional production function analysis. Using appropriately designed agricultural experiments, it is possible to estimate production function parameters with alternative specifications for input timing (and amount). A study of nitrogen applications to rice is employed to illustrate scheduling via production functions. Alternative specifications and functional forms are simultaneously examined to determine the sensitivity of economic results to these factors. Sensitivity is found to be high, and this finding is hypothesized to be critical for other approaches to input scheduling as well.

The sensitivity of farm inventory investment to movements in cash flow is tested. Inventories should be sensitive to shifts in cash flow because inventory investment is readily reversible and inventories are a significant portion of assets. Investment models estimated with Kansas farm panel data indicate that: (a) farms absorb internal finance shocks by adjusting inventories, (b) the inventory investment of livestock and high-debt farms are more sensitive to movements in cash flow than crop and low-debt farms, and (c) inventory investment is more sensitive to cash flow during the 1981-86 bust and the 1987-92 recovery than during the 1975-80 boom.

An alternative version of decomposition analysis, based on factor cost shares rather than input demand functions, is presented and applied to Greek agriculture. Decomposition analysis shows that most of the changes in factor cost shares during the period from 1973 to 1989 are attributed to technical change and factor substitution, while the role of the scale effect is small, except that of fertilizer. The decomposition analysis results are then used to analyze the implications of Greece's fertilizer and feed subsidy removal, which took place in 1990.

Crawfish processors' ex ante adoption rates of three hypothetical crawfish peeling machines are assessed using a polychotomous-choice elicitation format. Adoption rates would likely range from 23% to 70%, depending upon which machine was offered and whether it was purchased or leased. Processors most likely to adopt are determined using ordered probit analysis. Likely adopters would be larger, more diversified processors with greater resources and longer planning horizons.

Fats and oils play a prominent role in U.S. dietary patterns. Recent concerns over the negative health consequences associated with fats and oils have led many to suspect structural change in demand conditions. Our analysis considers short run (monthly) demand relationships for edible fats and oils. In that monthly quantities of fats and oils are likely to be relatively fixed, an inverse almost ideal demand system specification is used. A smooth transition function is used to model a switching inverse almost ideal demand system that assesses short-run demand conditions for edible fats and oils in the United States. The results suggest that short-run demand conditions for fats and oils experienced a gradual structural shift that began in the late 1980s or early 1990s and persisted into the mid-1990s. Although this shift generally made price flexibilities more elastic, differences in scale flexibilities across regimes were modest in most cases. The results suggest that decreases in marginal valuations for most fats and oils in response to consumption increases are rather small. Scale flexibilities are relatively close to –1, suggesting near homothetic preferences for fats and oils.

Community colleges likely draw to college individuals who would otherwise not attend due to their low costs and open admission requirements. This is labeled as the democratization effect. They may also divert individuals away from 4-year to terminal 2-year college degrees (the diversion effect). This study estimates democratization and diversion effects separately for nonmetropolitan and metropolitan youth using nationally representative data and models that account for endogenous institution selection. We find the democratization effect to exceed the diversion effect of community colleges for both metro and nonmetro youth. The democratization-diversion ratio is slightly higher for urban youth.

Feedforward networks have powerful approximation capabilities without the “explosion of parameters” problem faced by Fourier and polynomial expansions. This paper first introduces feedforward networks and describes their approximation capabilities, then we address several practical issues faced by applications of feedforward networks. First, we demonstrate networks can provide a reasonable estimate of a Bermudagrass hay fertilizer response function with the relatively sparse data often available from experiments. Second, we demonstrate that the estimated network with a practical number of hidden units provides reasonable flexibility. Third, we show how one can constrain feedforward networks to satisfy a priori information without losing their flexible functional form characteristic.

In context of the phrase “Rural Development”, so much a part of the current vocabulary of social scientists, the term ‘rural’ is often poorly defined and loosely used. Partly because of the great diversity in definitions of rural, both expressed and implied, a coherent and comprehensive rural development literature has not emerged. Obviously, rural development refers to the development of whatever is rural. The aim of this paper is to deal only with the question of what is rural, leaving the matter of what consitutes development to other writers.