Several outbreaks of hepatitis A in men who have sex with men (MSM) were reported in the 1980s and 1990s in Australia and other countries. An effective hepatitis A virus (HAV) vaccine has been available in Australia since 1994 and is recommended for high-risk groups including MSM. No outbreaks of hepatitis A in Australian MSM have been reported since 1996. In this study, we aimed to estimate HAV transmissibility in MSM populations in order to inform targets for vaccine coverage in such populations. We used mathematical models of HAV transmission in a MSM population to estimate the basic reproduction number (R0) and the probability of an HAV epidemic occurring as a function of the immune proportion. We estimated a plausible range for R0 of 1·71–3·67 for HAV in MSM and that sustained epidemics cannot occur once the proportion immune to HAV is greater than ~70%. To our knowledge this is the first estimate of R0 and the critical population immunity threshold for HAV transmission in MSM. As HAV is no longer endemic in Australia or in most other developed countries, vaccination is the only means of maintaining population immunity >70%. Our findings provide impetus to promote HAV vaccination in high-risk groups such as MSM.

Seasonal respiratory infections place an increased burden on health services annually. We used a sentinel emergency department syndromic surveillance system to understand the factors driving respiratory attendances at emergency departments (EDs) in England. Trends in different respiratory indicators were observed to peak at different points during winter, with further variation observed in the distribution of attendances by age. Multiple linear regression analysis revealed acute respiratory infection and bronchitis/bronchiolitis ED attendances in patients aged 1–4 years were particularly sensitive indicators for increasing respiratory syncytial virus activity. Using near real-time surveillance of respiratory ED attendances may provide early warning of increased winter pressures in EDs, particularly driven by seasonal pathogens. This surveillance may provide additional intelligence about different categories of attendance, highlighting pressures in particular age groups, thereby aiding planning and preparation to respond to acute changes in EDs, and thus the health service in general.

Nationwide prevalence and risk factors for faecal carriage of Escherichia coli O157 and O26 in cattle were assessed in a 2-year cross-sectional study at four large slaughter plants in New Zealand. Recto-anal mucosal swab samples from a total of 695 young (aged 4–7 days) calves and 895 adult cattle were collected post-slaughter and screened with real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) for the presence of E. coli O157 and O26 [Shiga toxin-producing E. coli (STEC) and non-STEC]. Co-infection with either serogroup of E. coli (O157 or O26) was identified as a risk factor in both calves and adult cattle for being tested real-time PCR-positive for E. coli O157 or O26. As confirmed by culture isolation and molecular analysis, the overall prevalence of STEC (STEC O157 and STEC O26 combined) was significantly higher in calves [6·0% (42/695), 95% confidence interval (CI) 4·4–8·1] than in adult cattle [1·8% (16/895), 95% CI 1·1–3·0] (P < 0·001). This study is the first of its kind in New Zealand to assess the relative importance of cattle as a reservoir of STEC O157 and O26 at a national level. Epidemiological data collected will be used in the development of a risk management strategy for STEC in New Zealand.

The Middle East region is plagued with repeated armed conflicts that affect both civilians and soldiers. Injuries sustained during war are common and frequently associated with multiple life-threatening complications. Wound infections are major consequences of these war injuries. The microbiology of war-related wound infections is variable with predominance of Gram-negative bacteria in later stages. The emergence of antimicrobial resistance among isolates affecting war-related wound injuries is a serious problem with major regional and global implications. Factors responsible for the increase in multidrug-resistant pathogens include timing and type of surgical management, wide use of antimicrobial drugs, and the presence of metallic or organic fragments in the wound. Nosocomial transmission is the most important factor in the spread of multidrug-resistant pathogens. Wound management of war-related injuries merits a multidisciplinary approach. This review aims to describe the microbiology of war-related wound infections and factors affecting their incidence from conflict areas in Iraq, Syria, Israel, and Lebanon.

Recent polio outbreaks in Syria and Ukraine, and isolation of poliovirus from asymptomatic carriers in Israel have raised concerns that polio might endanger Europe. We devised a model to calculate the time needed to detect the first case should the disease be imported into Europe, taking the effect of vaccine coverage – both from inactivated and oral polio vaccines, also considering their differences – on the length of silent transmission into account by deriving an ‘effective’ case/infection ratio that is applicable for vaccinated populations. Using vaccine coverage data and the newly developed model, the relationship between this ratio and vaccine coverage is derived theoretically and is also numerically determined for European countries. This shows that unnoticed transmission is longer for countries with higher vaccine coverage and a higher proportion of IPV-vaccinated individuals among those vaccinated. Assuming borderline transmission (R = 1·1), the expected time to detect the first case is between 326 days and 512 days in different countries, with the number of infected individuals between 235 and 1439. Imperfect surveillance further increases these numbers, especially the number of infected until detection. While longer silent transmission does not increase the number of clinical diseases, it can make the application of traditional outbreak response methods more complicated, among others.

As indicated by the sporadic Japanese encephalitis (JE) cases reported from the districts of Uttar Pradesh (UP), India, the disease is endemic in the state despite the fact that a JE vaccination programme has been ongoing in the state since 2006. Hence, the present study was undertaken to study the annual trend of JE in UP during January 2011 to December 2013. CSF and/or serum samples collected from acute encephalitis syndrome (AES) cases were referred to the virology laboratory at King George's Medical University, Lucknow and were tested for anti-JEV IgM antibodies by JEV MAC-ELISA kit. The study reveals that 26·9%, 9·9% and 14·8% of AES cases were positive for anti-JEV IgM in the years 2011, 2012 and 2013, respectively. Of the total JE confirmed cases, 30% were adults. Males were more commonly affected than females. A distinct peak of JE was seen in the monsoon and post-monsoon season, although sporadic cases were also reported in other months. JE vaccination by district in UP is discussed. This study reports that the proportion of JE positives in AES cases is decreasing in UP although the number of AES cases has not decreased. The study also discusses the probable causes of this decrease, including JE vaccination and natural periodicity due to herd immunity.

In New Zealand, efforts to control acute rheumatic fever (ARF) and its sequelae have focused on school-age children in the poorest socioeconomic areas; however, it is unclear whether this approach is optimal given the strong association with demographic risk factors other than deprivation, especially ethnicity. The aim of this study was to estimate the stratum-specific risk of ARF by key sociodemographic characteristics. We used hospitalization and disease notification data to identify new cases of ARF between 2010 and 2013, and used population count data from the 2013 New Zealand Census as our denominator. Poisson logistic regression methods were used to estimate stratum-specific risk of ARF development. The likelihood of ARF development varied considerably by age, ethnicity and deprivation strata: while risk was greatest in Māori and Pacific children aged 10–14 years residing in the most extreme deprivation, both of these ethnic groups experienced elevated risk across a wide age range and across deprivation levels. Interventions that target populations based on deprivation will include the highest-risk strata, but they will also (a) include groups with very low risk of ARF, such as non-Māori/non-Pacific children; and (b) exclude groups with moderate risk of ARF, such as Māori and Pacific individuals living outside high deprivation areas.

Environmental samples are considered to be a cost-effective method of identifying Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP)-positive dairy herds, but evidence for beef cow-calf herds is weak. This study aims at evaluating this approach in a total of 20 German herds that were characterized by individual faecal samples (n = 2545) of all cows. For 14 MAP-positive herds having at least one MAP-positive animal, the within-herd prevalence was calculated from concurrent individual faecal culture-based testing. Six herds certified as ‘MAP free’ based on the negative results of previous years served as MAP-negative controls. On average, six environmental samples were taken at the end of winter from areas with high cow traffic and tested for MAP by faecal culture. According to the environmental samples, nine (64·3%) out of the 14 MAP-positive cow-calf herds were infected. The percentage of positive environmental samples and the apparent within-herd prevalence (Spearman's P = 0·73, P < 0·001) as well as the herd-level test results (positive and negative) and the herd's status based on individual testing (Fisher's exact test, P = 0·014) showed a positive association. Considering limitations in low-prevalence herds, MAP-positive beef cow-calf herds are detectable by environmental samples in temperate climate zones.

The objectives of this work were (i) geographical analysis of the 2012–2014 outbreak of rabies in Greece using GIS and (ii) comparative analysis of animal cases with data of potential human exposure to rabies together with environmental data, in order to provide information for risk assessment, effective monitoring and control. Most animal cases (40/48) involved red foxes, while domestic animals were also diagnosed with rabies. Overall, 80% of the cases were diagnosed in central northern Greece; 75% of the cases were diagnosed in low altitudes (<343·5 m), within a distance of 1 km from human settlements. Median distance from livestock farms was 201·25 m. Most people potentially exposed to rabies (889/1060) presented with dog bite injuries. Maximum entropy analysis revealed that distance from farms contributed the highest percentage in defining environmental niche profiles for rabid foxes. Oral vaccination programmes were implemented in 24 administrative units of the country during 2013 and 2014, covering a total surface area of ~60 000 km2. Rabies re-occurrence in Greece emphasizes the need for ongoing surveillance in cross-border areas and in areas with intense human activity.

Preliminary evidence suggests that direct poultry contact may play a lesser role in transmission of avian influenza A(H7N9) than A(H5N1) to humans. To better understand differences in risk factors, we quantified the degree of poultry contact reported by H5N1 and H7N9 World Health Organization-confirmed cases. We used publicly available data to classify cases by their degree of poultry contact, including direct and indirect. To account for potential data limitations, we used two methods: (1) case population method in which all cases were classified using a range of sources; and (2) case subset method in which only cases with detailed contact information from published research literature were classified. In the case population, detailed exposure information was unavailable for a large proportion of cases (H5N1, 54%; H7N9, 86%). In the case subset, direct contact proportions were higher in H5N1 cases (70·3%) than H7N9 cases (40·0%) (χ2 = 18·5, P < 0·001), and indirect contact proportions were higher in H7N9 cases (44·6%) than H5N1 cases (19·4%) (χ2 = 15·5, P < 0·001). Together with emerging evidence, our descriptive analysis suggests direct poultry contact is a clearer risk factor for H5N1 than for H7N9, and that other risk factors should also be considered for H7N9.

Drinking raw date palm sap is the primary route of Nipah virus (NiV) transmission from bats to people in Bangladesh; subsequent person-to-person transmission is common. During December 2010 to March 2011, we investigated NiV epidemiology by interviewing cases using structured questionnaires, in-depth interviews, and group discussions to collect clinical and exposure histories. We conducted a case-control study to identify risk factors for transmission. We identified 43 cases; 23 were laboratory-confirmed and 20 probable. Thirty-eight (88%) cases died. Drinking raw date palm sap and contact with an infected person were major risk factors; one healthcare worker was infected and for another case transmission apparently occurred through contact with a corpse. In absence of these risk factors, apparent routes of transmission included drinking fermented date palm sap. For the first time, a case was detected in eastern Bangladesh. Identification of new epidemiological characteristics emphasizes the importance of continued NiV surveillance and case investigation.

Genotype G12 strains are now considered to be the sixth most prevalent human rotaviruses worldwide. In two Sicilian cities, Palermo and Messina, surveillance of rotavirus circulation performed since 1985 and 2009, respectively, did not detect G12 strains until 2012. From 2012 to 2014 rotavirus infection was detected in 29·7% of 1647 stool samples collected from children admitted for acute gastroenteritis to three Sicilian hospitals in Palermo, Messina and Ragusa. In 2012, G12P[8] was first detected in Palermo and then in Messina where it represented the second most frequent genotype (20% prevalence) after G1P[8]. Thereafter, G12 strains continued to circulate in Sicily, showing a marked prevalence in Ragusa (27·8%) in 2013 and in Palermo (21%) and Messina (16·6%) in 2014. All but one of the Sicilian G12 strains carried a P[8] VP4 genotype, whereas the single non-P[8] rotavirus strain was genotyped as G12P[9]. Phylogenetic analysis of the VP7 and VP4 sequences allowed distinction of several genetic lineages and separation of the G12P[8] strains into three cluster combinations. These findings indicate independent introductions of G12 rotavirus strains in Sicily in recent years.

Vancomycin-resistant enterococci (VRE) infections are a public health threat associated with increased patient mortality and healthcare costs. Antibiotic usage, particularly cephalosporins, has been associated with VRE colonization and VRE bloodstream infections (VRE BSI). We examined the relationship between antimicrobial usage and incident VRE colonization at the individual patient level. Prospective, weekly surveillance was undertaken for incident VRE colonization defined by negative admission but positive surveillance swab in a medical intensive care unit over a 17-month period. Antimicrobial exposure was quantified as days of therapy (DOT)/1000 patient-days. Multiple logistic regression was used to analyse incident VRE colonization and antibiotic DOT, controlling for demographic and clinical covariates. Ninety-six percent (1398/1454) of admissions were swabbed within 24 h of intensive care unit (ICU) arrival and of the 380 patients in the ICU long enough for weekly surveillance, 83 (22%) developed incident VRE colonization. Incident colonization was associated in bivariate analysis with male gender, more previous hospital admissions, longer previous hospital stay, and use of cefepime/ceftazidime, fluconazole, azithromycin, and metronidazole (P < 0·05). After controlling for demographic and clinical covariates, metronidazole was the only antibiotic independently associated with incident VRE colonization (odds ratio 2·0, 95% confidence interval 1·2–3·3, P < 0·009). Our findings suggest that risk of incident VRE colonization differs between individual antibiotic agents and support the possibility that antimicrobial stewardship may impact VRE colonization and infection.

To identify hospital-level factors associated with post-cardiac surgical pneumonia for assessing their impact on standardized infection rates (SIRs), we studied 43 691 patients in a cardiac surgery registry (2001–2011) in 16 hospitals. In a logistic regression model for pneumonia following cardiac surgery, associations with hospital characteristics were quantified with adjustment for patient characteristics while allowing for clustering of patients by hospital. Pneumonia rates varied from 0·7% to 12·4% across hospitals. Seventy percent of variability in the pneumonia rate was attributable to differences in hospitals in their long-term rates with the remainder attributable to within-hospital differences in rates over time. After adjusting for patient characteristics, the pneumonia rate was found to be higher in hospitals with more registered nurses (RNs)/100 intensive-care unit (ICU) admissions [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 1·2, P = 0·006] and more RNs/available ICU beds (aOR 1·4, P < 0·001). Other hospital characteristics had no significant association with pneumonia. SIRs calculated on the basis of patient characteristics alone differed substantially from the same rates calculated on the basis of patient characteristics and the hospital characteristic of RNs/100 ICU admissions. Since SIRs using patient case-mix information are important for comparing rates between hospitals, the additional allowance for hospital characteristics can impact significantly on how hospitals compare.

In order to study the epidemiology of acute otitis media (AOM) and Streptococcus pneumoniae nasopharyngeal colonization in the first 2 years of life, we followed up an unvaccinated birth cohort monthly and at visits when sick, with otoscopy to detect AOM and performed nasopharyngeal swabbing to detect S. pneumoniae. Serotyping of positive cultures was also performed. Of 210 babies who were enrolled at birth, 61 (29·05%) experienced 128 episodes of AOM [relative risk 2·63, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1·21–5·75] with maximum incidence in the second half of the first year of life. Episodes ranged from 1 to 7 (mean 2·1 episodes). Most (86·9%) babies with AOM had a positive culture swab giving an odds ratio (OR) of 1·93 (95% CI 1·03–3·62, P = 0·041) for this association. Other risk factors identified for AOM were winter season (OR 3·46, 95% CI 1·56–7·30, P = 0·001), upper respiratory infection (OR 2·43, 95% CI 1·43–4·51, P = 0·005); residents of small households were less likely to develop AOM (OR 0·32, 95% CI 0·17–0·57, P < 0·01). Common S. pneumoniae serotypes isolated during episodes were 19, 6, 15, 35, 7, 23, 9 and 10 which indicated a theoretical coverage for pneumococcal vaccines PCV10 and PCV13 constituent serotypes of 62·8%. We conclude that AOM in Indian infants is often associated with S. pneumoniae colonization of the nasopharynx as well as other risk factors.

Pneumonia is a leading cause of mortality and morbidity worldwide with radiographically confirmed pneumonia a key disease burden indicator. This is usually determined by a radiology panel which is assumed to be the best available standard; however, this assumption may introduce bias into pneumonia incidence estimates. To improve estimates of radiographic pneumonia incidence, we applied Bayesian latent class modelling (BLCM) to a large database of hospitalized patients with acute lower respiratory tract illness in Sa Kaeo and Nakhon Phanom provinces, Thailand from 2005 to 2010 with chest radiographs read by both a radiology panel and a clinician. We compared these estimates to those from conventional analysis. For children aged <5 years, estimated radiographically confirmed pneumonia incidence by BLCM was 2394/100 000 person-years (95% credible interval 2185–2574) vs. 1736/100 000 person-years (95% confidence interval 1706–1766) from conventional analysis. For persons aged ⩾5 years, estimated radiographically confirmed pneumonia incidence was similar between BLCM and conventional analysis (235 vs. 215/100 000 person-years). BLCM suggests the incidence of radiographically confirmed pneumonia in young children is substantially larger than estimated from the conventional approach using radiology panels as the reference standard.

An abattoir-based study was undertaken between January and May 2013 to estimate the prevalence of Salmonella spp. and Yersinia spp. carriage and seroprevalence of antibodies to Toxoplasma gondii and porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSv) in UK pigs at slaughter. In total, 626 pigs were sampled at 14 abattoirs that together process 80% of the annual UK pig slaughter throughput. Sampling was weighted by abattoir throughput and sampling dates and pig carcasses were randomly selected. Rectal swabs, blood samples, carcass swabs and the whole caecum, tonsils, heart and tongue were collected. Salmonella spp. was isolated from 30·5% [95% confidence interval (CI) 26·5–34·6] of caecal content samples but only 9·6% (95% CI 7·3–11·9) of carcass swabs, which was significantly lower than in a UK survey in 2006–2007. S. Typhimurium and S. 4,[5],12:i:- were the most commonly isolated serovars, followed by S. Derby and S. Bovismorbificans. The prevalence of Yersinia enterocolitica carriage in tonsils was 28·7% (95% CI 24·8–32·7) whereas carcass contamination was much lower at 1·8% (95% CI 0·7–2·8). The seroprevalence of antibodies to Toxoplasma gondii and PRRSv was 7·4% (95% CI 5·3–9·5) and 58·3% (95% CI 53·1–63·4), respectively. This study provides a comparison to previous abattoir-based prevalence surveys for Salmonella and Yersinia, and the first UK-wide seroprevalence estimates for antibodies to Toxoplasma and PRRSv in pigs at slaughter.

We aimed to assess vaccination coverage (VC) in 17-year-old French young adults (YAs) participating in one mandatory Day of Defence and Citizenship (DDC). Between June 2010 and May 2011, YAs participating in 43 randomly selected mandatory sessions of the DDC programme in Poitou-Charentes (France) were asked to provide their personal vaccination record. Tetanus, diphtheria, polio, hepatitis B, Haemophilus influenzae b, pertussis, measles, mumps and rubella vaccination status were assessed at ages 2, 6, 13 and 17 years. Of 2610 participants, 2111 (81%) supplied documents for evaluation. Of these, 1838 (87%, M:F sex ratio 0·96) were aged 17 years (9% of the global population of this age in the area). The assessment of the 17-year-olds demonstrated the following rates of complete vaccination: diphtheria-tetanus-polio 83%; measles, mumps and rubella 83%; pertussis 69%; H. influenzae b 61%; human papillomavirus 47%; and hepatitis B 40%. At age 6 years, only 46% had received two doses of the vaccine against measles. The YAs were not aware of their status but were in favour of vaccination. VC in YAs is insufficient, particularly for hepatitis B, pertussis and measles. Combined vaccines and the simplification of vaccination schedules should improve VC. Preventive messages should focus on YAs.

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) has become a global public health problem. Many studies have been conducted to identify risk factors for HCV infection. However, some of these studies reported inconsistent results. Using data collected from 11 methadone clinics, we fit both a non-spatial logistical regression and a geographically weighted logistic regression to analyse the association between HCV infection and some factors at the individual level. This study enrolled 5401 patients with 30·0% HCV infection prevalence. The non-spatial logistical regression found that injection history, drug rehabilitation history and senior high-school education or above were related to HCV infection; and being married was negatively associated with HCV infection. Using the spatial model, we found that Yi ethnicity was negatively related to HCV infection in 62·0% of townships, and being married was negatively associated with HCV infection in 81·0% of townships. Senior high-school education or above was positively associated with HCV infection in 55·2% of townships of the Yi Autonomous Prefecture. The spatial model offers better understanding of the geographical variations of the risk factors associated with HCV infection. The geographical variations may be useful for customizing intervention strategies for local regions for more efficient allocation of limited resources to control transmission of HCV.