Estimates of the proportion of illness transmitted by food for different enteric pathogens are essential for foodborne burden-of-disease studies. Owing to insufficient scientific data, a formal synthesis of expert opinion, an expert elicitation, is commonly used to produce such estimates. Eleven experts participated in an elicitation to estimate the proportion of illnesses due to food in Australia for nine pathogens over three rounds: first, based on their own knowledge alone; second, after being provided with systematic reviews of the literature and Australian data; and finally, at a workshop where experts reflected on the evidence. Estimates changed significantly across the three rounds (P = 0·002) as measured by analysis of variance. Following the workshop in round 3, estimates showed smoother distributions with significantly less variation for several pathogens. When estimates were combined to provide combined distributions for each pathogen, the width of these combined distributions reflected experts’ perceptions of the availability of evidence, with narrower intervals for pathogens for which evidence was judged to be strongest. Our findings show that the choice of expert elicitation process can significantly influence final estimates. Our structured process – and the workshop in particular – produced robust estimates and distributions appropriate for inclusion in burden-of-disease studies.

Infectious diseases remain one of the leading causes of death worldwide. The aim of this descriptive epidemiological study was to analyse the trends in mortality from infectious diseases in Serbia (excluding the Autonomous Province of Kosovo & Metohia) from 1991 to 2014 using joinpoint regression analysis. The mortality rates from infectious diseases were found to have increased markedly from 1991 to 1994 (+12·4% per year), followed by a significant decline from 1994 to 2009 (–4·6% per year) and then another increase from 2009 to 2014 (+4·3% per year). Throughout the study period, mortality rates were consistently higher in men than in women. Although a substantial decline was observed for young people of both sexes, no consistent pattern was evident for the middle-aged nor the elderly. Since 1991, septicaemia has emerged as a leading cause of infectious disease mortality, particularly in older men. The Yugoslav civil wars in the 1990s and the global financial crisis in 2008 corresponded with changes in the trends in mortality from infectious diseases in Serbia, with the elderly showing particular vulnerability during those time periods. Data presented in this study might be useful to improve control of infectious diseases in Serbia.

Commonly thought of as a disease of poverty and overcrowding in resource-poor settings globally, scabies is also an important public health issue in residential care facilities for the elderly (RCFE) in high-income countries such as the UK. We compared and contrasted current local Health Protection Team (HPT) guidelines for the management of scabies outbreaks in RCFE throughout England. We performed content analysis on 20 guidelines, and used this to create a quantitative report of their variation in key dimensions. Although the guidelines were generally consistent on issues such as the treatment protocols for individual patients, there was substantial variation in their recommendations regarding the prophylactic treatment of contacts, infection control measures and the roles and responsibilities of individual stakeholders. Most guidelines did not adequately address the logistical challenges associated with mass treatment in this setting. We conclude that the heterogeneous nature of the guidelines reviewed is an argument in favour of national guidelines being produced.

Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is an important disease of cattle caused by infection with Mycobacterium bovis, a pathogen that may be extremely difficult to eradicate in the presence of a true wildlife reservoir. Our objective was to identify and review relevant literature and provide a succinct summary of current knowledge of risk factors for transmission of infection of cattle. Search strings were developed to identify publications from electronic databases to February 2015. Abstracts of 4255 papers identified were reviewed by three reviewers to determine whether the entire article was likely to contain relevant information. Risk factors could be broadly grouped as follows: animal (including nutrition and genetics), herd (including bTB and testing history), environment, wildlife and social factors. Many risk factors are inter-related and study designs often do not enable differentiation between cause and consequence of infection. Despite differences in study design and location, some risk factors are consistently identified, e.g. herd size, bTB history, presence of infected wildlife, whereas the evidence for others is less consistent and coherent, e.g. nutrition, local cattle movements. We have identified knowledge gaps where further research may result in an improved understanding of bTB transmission dynamics. The application of targeted, multifactorial disease control regimens that address a range of risk factors simultaneously is likely to be a key to effective, evidence-informed control strategies.

During outbreaks of hospital-acquired influenza-like illness (HA-ILI) healthcare workers (HCWs), patients, and visitors are each a source of infection for the other. Quantifying the effects of these various exposures will help improve prevention and control of HA-ILI outbreaks. We estimated the attributability of HA-ILI to: (1) exposure to recorded or unrecorded sources; (2) exposure to contagious patient or contagious HCW; (3) exposure during observable or unobservable contagious period of the recorded sources; and, (4) the moment of exposure. Among recorded sources, 59% [95% credible interval (CrI) 34–83] of HA-ILI of patients was associated with exposure to contagious patients and 41% (95% CrI 17–66) with exposure to contagious HCWs. Exposure during the unobservable contagiousness period of source patients accounted for 49% (95% CrI 19–75) of HA-ILI, while exposure during the unobservable contagiousness period of source HCWs accounted for 82% (95% CrI 51–99) of HA-ILI. About 80% of HA-ILIs were associated with exposure 1 day earlier. Secondary cases of HA-ILI might appear as soon as the day after the detection of a primary case highlighting the explosive nature of HA-ILI spread. Unobservable transmission was the main cause of HA-ILI transmission suggesting that symptom-based control measures alone might not prevent hospital outbreaks. The results support the rapid implementation of interventions to control influenza transmission.

Syndromic surveillance systems in England have demonstrated utility in the early identification of seasonal gastrointestinal illness (GI) tracking its spatio-temporal distribution and enabling early public health action. There would be additional public health utility if syndromic surveillance systems could detect or track subnational infectious disease outbreaks. To investigate using syndromic surveillance for this purpose we retrospectively identified eight large GI outbreaks between 2009 and 2014 (four randomly and four purposively sampled). We then examined syndromic surveillance information prospectively collected by the Real-time Syndromic Surveillance team within Public Health England for evidence of possible outbreak-related changes. None of the outbreaks were identified contemporaneously and no alerts were made to relevant public health teams. Retrospectively, two of the outbreaks – which happened at similar times and in proximal geographical locations – demonstrated changes in the local trends of relevant syndromic indicators and exhibited a clustering of statistical alarms, but did not warrant alerting local health protection teams. Our suite of syndromic surveillance systems may be more suited to their original purposes than as means of detecting or monitoring localized, subnational GI outbreaks. This should, however, be considered in the context of this study's limitations; further prospective work is needed to fully explore the use of syndromic surveillance for this purpose. Provided geographical coverage is sufficient, syndromic surveillance systems could be able to provide reassurance of no or minor excess healthcare systems usage during localized GI incidents.

Human papillomavirus (HPV) is the necessary cause of cervical cancer, the fourth most common cancer and cause of cancer-related death in females worldwide. HPV also causes anal, vaginal, vulvar, penile, and oropharyngeal cancer. Prophylactic HPV vaccines based on recombinantly expressed virus-like particles have been developed. Two first-generation, U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA)-approved vaccines prevent infections and disease caused by HPV16 and HPV18, the two HPV genotypes that cause approximately 70% of cervical cancer, and one of these vaccines also prevents HPV6 and HPV11, the two HPV genotypes that cause 90% of genital warts. A next-generation vaccine, recently approved by the U.S. FDA, targets HPV16, HPV18, and five additional HPV genotypes that together causes approximately 90% of cervical cancer as well as HPV6 and HPV11. In clinical trials, these vaccines have shown high levels of efficacy against disease and infections caused by the targeted HPV genotypes in adolescent females and males and older females. Data indicate population effectiveness, and therefore cost effectiveness, is highest in HPV-naive young females prior to becoming sexually active. Countries that implemented HPV vaccination before 2010 have already experienced decreases in population prevalence of targeted HPV genotypes and related anogenital diseases in women and via herd protection in heterosexual men. Importantly, after more than 100 million doses given worldwide, HPV vaccination has demonstrated an excellent safety profile. With demonstrated efficacy, cost-effectiveness, and safety, universal HPV vaccination of all young, adolescent women, and with available resources at least high-risk groups of men, should be a global health priority. Failure to do so will result in millions of women dying from avertable cervical cancers, especially in low- and middle-income countries, and many thousands of women and men dying from other HPV-related cancers.

Helicobacter pylori infection is a major cause of peptic ulcer and is also associated with chronic gastritis, mucosa-associated lymphoid tissue (MALT) lymphoma, and adenocarcinoma of the stomach. Guidelines have been developed in the United States and Europe (areas with low prevalence) for the diagnosis and management of this infection, including the recommendation to ‘test and treat’ those with dyspepsia. A group of international experts performed a targeted literature review and formulated an expert opinion for evidenced-based benefits and harms for screening and treatment of H. pylori in high-prevalence countries. They concluded that in Arctic countries where H. pylori prevalence exceeds 60%, treatment of persons with H. pylori infection should be limited only to instances where there is strong evidence of direct benefit in reduction of morbidity and mortality, associated peptic ulcer disease and MALT lymphoma and that the test-and-treat strategy may not be beneficial for those with dyspepsia.

A scoping review was conducted to identify modifiable non-antimicrobial factors to reduce the occurrence of antimicrobial resistance in cattle populations. Searches were developed to retrieve peer-reviewed published studies in animal, human and in vitro microbial populations. Citations were retained when modifiable non-antimicrobial factors or interventions potentially associated with antimicrobial resistance were described. Studies described resistance in five bacterial genera, species or types, and 40 antimicrobials. Modifiable non-antimicrobial factors or interventions ranged widely in type, and the depth of evidence in animal populations was shallow. Specific associations between a factor or intervention with antimicrobial resistance in a population (e.g. associations between organic systems and tetracycline susceptibility in E. coli from cattle) were reported in a maximum of three studies. The identified non-antimicrobial factors or interventions were classified into 16 themes. Most reported associations between the non-antimicrobial modifiable factors or interventions and antimicrobial resistance were not statistically significant (P > 0·05 and a confidence interval including 1), but when significant, the results were not consistent in direction (increase or decrease in antimicrobial resistance) or magnitude. Research is needed to better understand the impacts of promising modifiable factors or interventions on the occurrence of antimicrobial resistance before any recommendations can be offered or adopted.

A recent outbreak of Q fever was linked to an intensive goat and sheep dairy farm in Victoria, Australia, 2012-2014. Seventeen employees and one family member were confirmed with Q fever over a 28-month period, including two culture-positive cases. The outbreak investigation and management involved a One Health approach with representation from human, animal, environmental and public health. Seroprevalence in non-pregnant milking goats was 15% [95% confidence interval (CI) 7–27]; active infection was confirmed by positive quantitative PCR on several animal specimens. Genotyping of Coxiella burnetii DNA obtained from goat and human specimens was identical by two typing methods. A number of farming practices probably contributed to the outbreak, with similar precipitating factors to the Netherlands outbreak, 2007-2012. Compared to workers in a high-efficiency particulate arrestance (HEPA) filtered factory, administrative staff in an unfiltered adjoining office and those regularly handling goats and kids had 5·49 (95% CI 1·29–23·4) and 5·65 (95% CI 1·09–29·3) times the risk of infection, respectively; suggesting factory workers were protected from windborne spread of organisms. Reduction in the incidence of human cases was achieved through an intensive human vaccination programme plus environmental and biosecurity interventions. Subsequent non-occupational acquisition of Q fever in the spouse of an employee, indicates that infection remains endemic in the goat herd, and remains a challenge to manage without source control.

During the early stage of an epidemic, timely and reliable estimation of the severity of infections are important for predicting the impact that the influenza viruses will have in the population. We obtained age-specific deaths and hospitalizations for patients with laboratory-confirmed H1N1pdm09 infections from June 2009 to December 2009 in Hong Kong. We retrospectively obtained the real-time estimates of the hospitalization fatality risk (HFR), using crude estimation or allowing for right-censoring for final status in some patients. Models accounting for right-censoring performed better than models without adjustments. The risk of deaths in hospitalized patients with confirmed H1N1pdm09 increased with age. Reliable estimates of the HFR could be obtained before the peak of the first wave of H1N1pdm09 in young and middle-aged adults but after the peak in the elderly. In the next influenza pandemic, timely estimation of the HFR will contribute to risk assessment and disease control.

Public Health England conducts enhanced national surveillance of tetanus, a potentially life-threatening vaccine-preventable disease. A standardized questionnaire was used to ascertain clinical and demographic details of individuals reported with clinically suspected tetanus. The 96 cases identified between 2001 and 2014 were analysed. The average annual incidence was 0·13/million (95% confidence interval 0·10–0·16) of which 50·0% were male. Where reported, 70·3% of injuries occurred in the home/garden (45/64). Overall, 40·3% (31/77) cases were in people who inject drugs (PWID), including a cluster of 22 cases during 2003–2004. Where known (n = 68), only 8·8% were age-appropriately immunized. The overall case-fatality rate was 11·0% (9/82). All tetanus-associated deaths occurred in adults aged >45 years, none of whom were fully immunized. Due to the success of the childhood immunization programme, tetanus remains a rare disease in England with the majority of cases occurring in older unimmunized or partially immunized adults. Minor injuries in the home/garden were the most commonly reported likely sources of infection, although cases in PWID increased during this period. It is essential that high routine vaccine coverage is maintained and that susceptible individuals, particularly older adults, are protected through vaccination and are offered timely post-exposure management following a tetanus-prone wound.

A systematic review of studies providing frequency estimates of brucellosis in humans and ruminants and risk factors for Brucella spp. seropositivity in humans in the Middle East was conducted to collate current knowledge of brucellosis in this region. Eight databases were searched for peer-reviewed original Arabic, English, French and Persian journal articles; the search was conducted on June 2014. Two reviewers evaluated articles for inclusion based on pre-defined criteria. Of 451 research articles, only 87 articles passed the screening process and provided bacteriological and serological evidence for brucellosis in all Middle Eastern countries. Brucella melitensis and B. abortus have been identified in most countries in the Middle East, supporting the notion of widespread presence of Brucella spp. especially B. melitensis across the region. Of the 87 articles, 49 were used to provide evidence of the presence of Brucella spp. but only 11 provided new knowledge on the frequency of brucellosis in humans and ruminants or on human risk factors for seropositivity and were deemed of sufficient quality. Small ruminant populations in the region show seroprevalence values that are among the highest worldwide. Human cases are likely to arise from subpopulations occupationally exposed to ruminants or from the consumption of unpasteurized dairy products. The Middle East is in need of well-designed observational studies that could generate reliable frequency estimates needed to assess the burden of disease and to inform disease control policies.

Waterborne illness related to the consumption of contaminated or inadequately treated water is a global public health concern. Although the magnitude of drinking water-related illnesses in developed countries is lower than that observed in developing regions of the world, drinking water is still responsible for a proportion of all cases of acute gastrointestinal illness (AGI) in Canada. The estimated burden of endemic AGI in Canada is 20·5 million cases annually – this estimate accounts for under-reporting and under-diagnosis. About 4 million of these cases are domestically acquired and foodborne, yet the proportion of waterborne cases is unknown. There is evidence that individuals served by private systems and small community systems may be more at risk of waterborne illness than those served by municipal drinking water systems in Canada. However, little is known regarding the contribution of these systems to the overall drinking water-related AGI burden in Canada. Private water supplies serve an estimated 12% of the Canadian population, or ~4·1 million people. An estimated 1·4 million (4·1%) people in Canada are served by small groundwater (2·6%) and surface water (1·5%) supplies. The objective of this research is to estimate the number of AGI cases attributable to water consumption from these supplies in Canada using a quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) approach. This provides a framework for others to develop burden of waterborne illness estimates for small water supplies. A multi-pathogen QMRA of Giardia, Cryptosporidium, Campylobacter, E. coli O157 and norovirus, chosen as index waterborne pathogens, for various source water and treatment combinations was performed. It is estimated that 103 230 AGI cases per year are due to the presence of these five pathogens in drinking water from private and small community water systems in Canada. In addition to providing a mechanism to assess the potential burden of AGI attributed to small systems and private well water in Canada, this research supports the use of QMRA as an effective source attribution tool when there is a lack of randomized controlled trial data to evaluate the public health risk of an exposure source. QMRA is also a powerful tool for identifying existing knowledge gaps on the national scale to inform future surveillance and research efforts.

Listeria monocytogenes has been the most common microbial cause of cheese-related recalls in both the United States and Canada in recent years. Since L. monocytogenes is inactivated by pasteurization, the majority of these cases have been linked to environmental and cross-contamination of fresh-soft, soft-ripened, and semi-soft cheeses. Cross-contamination of foods with L. monocytogenes is a continuous risk throughout the food supply chain and presents unique challenges for subsequent illness and outbreak investigations. Reports on outbreaks of listeriosis attributed to cross-contamination downstream from primary processing help highlight the critical role of epidemiological investigation coupled with coordinated molecular subtyping and surveillance in the recognition and investigation of complex foodborne outbreaks. Despite their complexity, environmental sampling throughout the supply chain coupled with improved genotyping approaches and concomitant analysis of foodborne illness epidemiological exposure data are needed to help resolve these and similar cases more rapidly and with greater confidence.

Extended-spectrum β-lactamase (ESBL)-producing Enterobacteriaceae (ESBL-E) have recently emerged in livestock and humans. Therefore, this study assessed the carriage of Enterobacteriaceae in the anterior nares and associated antimicrobial resistance in pig-exposed persons. Nasal swabs were enriched in non-selective broth and then plated on MacConkey and ESBL-selective agars. Species was confirmed by matrix-assisted laser-desorption ionization–time-of-flight mass spectrometry (MALDI-ToF MS). Antimicrobial susceptibility testing was performed according to European Committee on Antimicrobial Susceptibility Testing (EUCAST) guidelines. Of 114 pig-exposed persons tested, Enterobacteriaceae were detected in the nares of 76 (66·7%) participants. The predominant species were Proteus mirabilis (n = 17, 14·9%), Pantoea agglomerans (n = 13, 11·4%), Morganella morganii (n = 9, 7·9%), Citrobacter koseri (n = 9, 7·9%), Klebsiella pneumoniae, Escherichia coli and Proteus vulgaris (each n = 8, 7·0%). ESBL-E were not detected. Of all isolates tested, 3·4% were resistant against ciprofloxacin, 2·3% against gentamicin, 23·9% against trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole and 44·3% against tigecycline. Despite the high prevalence of ESBL-E in livestock, pig-exposed persons did not carry ESBL-E in their nares. This finding is important, because colonization of the nasal reservoir might cause endogenous infections or facilitate transmission of ESBL-E in the general population.

In order to evaluate the role of the RAD51 G135C genetic polymorphism on the risk of gastric cancer induced by Helicobacter pylori infection, we determined allele frequency and genotype distribution of this polymorphism in Bhutan – a population documented with high prevalence of gastric cancer and extremely high prevalence of H. pylori infection. The status of RAD51 G135C was examined by restriction fragment length polymorphism analysis of PCR amplified fragments and sequencing. Histological scores were evaluated according to the updated Sydney system. G135C carriers showed significantly higher scores for intestinal metaplasia in the antrum than G135G carriers [mean (median) 0·33 (0) vs. 0·08 (0), P = 0·008]. Higher scores for intestinal metaplasia of G135C carriers compared to those of G135G carriers were also observed in H. pylori-positive patients [0·3 (0) vs. 0·1 (0), P = 0·002] and H. pylori-positive patients with gastritis [0·4 (0) vs. 0·1 (0), P = 0·002] but were not found in H. pylori-negative patients. Our findings revealed that a combination of H. pylori infection and RAD51 G135C genotype of the host showed an increasing score for intestinal metaplasia. Therefore, RAD51 G135C might be the important predictor for gastric cancer of H. pylori-infected patients.

The estimated burden of endemic acute gastrointestinal illness (AGI) annually in Canada is 20·5 million cases. Approximately 4 million of these cases are domestically acquired and foodborne, yet the proportion of waterborne cases is unknown. A number of randomized controlled trials have been completed to estimate the influence of tap water from municipal drinking water plants on the burden of AGI. In Canada, 83% of the population (28 521 761 people) consumes tap water from municipal drinking water plants serving >1000 people. The drinking water-related AGI burden associated with the consumption of water from these systems in Canada is unknown. The objective of this research was to estimate the number of AGI cases attributable to consumption of drinking water from large municipal water supplies in Canada, using data from four household drinking water intervention trials. Canadian municipal water treatment systems were ranked into four categories based on source water type and quality, population size served, and treatment capability and barriers. The water treatment plants studied in the four household drinking water intervention trials were also ranked according to the aforementioned criteria, and the Canadian treatment plants were then scored against these criteria to develop four AGI risk groups. The proportion of illnesses attributed to distribution system events vs. source water quality/treatment failures was also estimated, to inform the focus of future intervention efforts. It is estimated that 334 966 cases (90% probability interval 183 006-501 026) of AGI per year are associated with the consumption of tap water from municipal systems that serve >1000 people in Canada. This study provides a framework for estimating the burden of waterborne illness at a national level and identifying existing knowledge gaps for future research and surveillance efforts, in Canada and abroad.

Globally, the prevalence of oesophageal cancer cases is particularly high in China. Since 1982, oncogenic human papillomavirus (HPV) has been hypothesized as a risk factor for oesophageal cancer, but no firm evidence of HPV infection in oesophageal cancer has been established to date. We aimed to conduct a meta-analysis to estimate the high-risk HPV-18 prevalence of oesophageal cancer in the Chinese population. Eligible studies published from 1 January 2005 to 12 July 2014 were retrieved via computer searches of English and Chinese literature databases (including Medline, EMBASE, Chinese National Knowledge Infrastructure and Wanfang Data Knowledge Service Platform). A random-effects model was used to calculate pooled prevalence and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs). A total of 2556 oesophageal cancer cases from 19 studies were included in this meta-analysis. Overall, the pooled HPV-18 prevalence in oesophageal cancer cases was 4·1% (95% CI 2·7–5·5) in China, 6·1% (95% CI 2·9–9·3) in fresh or frozen biopsies and 4·0% (95% CI 2·3–5·8) in paraffin-embedded fixed biopsies, 8·2% (95% CI 4·6–11·7) by the E6/E7 region and 2·2% (95% CI 0·9–3·6) by the L1 region of the HPV gene. This meta-analysis indicated that China has a moderate HPV-18 prevalence of oesophageal cancer compared to cervical cancer, although there is variation between different variables. Further studies are needed to elucidate the role of HPV in oesophagus carcinogenesis with careful consideration of study design and laboratory detection method, providing more accurate assessment of HPV status in oesophageal cancer.