Family feasting during the Spring Festival is a Chinese tradition. However, close contact during this period is likely to promote the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). This study developed a dynamic infectious disease model in which the feast gatherings of families were considered the sole mode of transmission. The model simulates COVID-19 transmission via family feast gatherings through a social contact network. First, a kinship-based, virtual social contact network was constructed, with nodes representing families and connections representing kinships. Families in kinship with each other comprised of the largest globally coupled network, also known as a clique, in which a feast gathering was generated by randomly selecting two or more families willing to gather. The social contact network in the model comprised of 215 cliques formed among 608 families with 1517 family members. The modelling results indicated that when there is only one patient on day 0, the number of new infections will reach a peak on day 29, and almost all families and their members in the social contact network will be infected by day 60. This study demonstrated that COVID-19 can spread rapidly through continuous feast gatherings through social contact networks and that the disease will run rampant throughout the network.

This paper examines the geographical impact of the British Government's wartime evacuation scheme on notified rates of two common acute childhood diseases (scarlet fever and diphtheria) in the 1470 local government districts of England and Wales, 1939–1945. Drawing on the notifications of communicable diseases collated by the General Register Office (GRO), we establish pre-war (baseline) disease rates for the 1470 districts. For the war years, techniques of binary logistic regression analysis are used to assess the associations between (a) above-baseline (‘raised’) disease rates in evacuation, neutral and reception districts and (b) the major phases of the evacuation scheme. The analysis demonstrates that the evacuation was temporally associated with distinct national and regional effects on notified levels of disease activity. These effects were most pronounced in the early years of the dispersal (1939–1941) and corresponded with initial levels of evacuation-related population change at the regional and district scales.

In the experiments recorded the various antigens prepared from type I pneumococci failed to produce effective resistance in mice to heterologous types or to produce demonstrable antibodies against these types in mice or rabbits.

1. A new series of compounds has been found which markedly inhibits the growth of Mycobacterium tuberculosis and M. smegmatis.

2. These substances are strongly haemolytic against human red blood cells.

3. The effectiveness of the antibacterial and haemolytic actions depends upon the length of the alkyl chain.

4. The antibacterial and haemolytic actions are reduced by human serum.

Various authors have stated that the plague problem in Uganda is intimately connected with the cotton industry. Thornton sums up their statements: “as at present conducted the industry is a peril to other countries and to the peasants of Uganda themselves on account of plague”. The evidence given in support of these statements is vague and unconvincing and Roberts has investigated the question and come to an entirely different conclusion.

It has been found that carcinogenic tar acts upon the lymph glands of the rat in converting them into more or less pronounced haemolymph glands.

Previous studies suggest that influenza virus infection may provide temporary non-specific immunity and hence lower the risk of non-influenza respiratory virus infection. In a randomized controlled trial of influenza vaccination, 1 330 children were followed-up in 2009–2011. Respiratory swabs were collected when they reported acute respiratory illness and tested against influenza and other respiratory viruses. We used Poisson regression to compare the incidence of non-influenza respiratory virus infection before and after influenza virus infection. Based on 52 children with influenza B virus infection, the incidence rate ratio (IRR) of non-influenza respiratory virus infection after influenza virus infection was 0.47 (95% confidence interval: 0.27–0.82) compared with before infection. Simulation suggested that this IRR was 0.87 if the temporary protection did not exist. We identified a decreased risk of non-influenza respiratory virus infection after influenza B virus infection in children. Further investigation is needed to determine if this decreased risk could be attributed to temporary non-specific immunity acquired from influenza virus infection.

In November 1973 Newcastle disease suddenly appeared in Northern Ireland, where the viscerotropic disease had not been seen in 3½ years and the two Irelands had been regarded as largely disease free for 30 years. It was successfully controlled with only 36 confirmed affected layer flocks, plus 10 more slaughtered as ‘dangerous contacts’. Contemporary investigations failed to reveal the source of the Irish epidemic. Using archival virus samples from most of the affected flocks, RT–PCR was conducted with primers selected for all six NDV genes. Phylogenetic analyses of three genes, HN, M and F, confirmed vaccine as the cause of one of the outbreaks. The other six samples were identical and closely related to previous outbreaks in the United States and western Europe initiated by infected imported Latin American parrots. The probable cause of the epidemic followed from the importation from The Netherlands of bulk feed grains contaminated with infected pigeon faeces.

The prevalence of Chagas disease has decreased in the Americas region due to vector control measures. However, non-vectorial transmission through blood transfusions and organ transplantation has gained importance in recent years. Screening among blood and organ donors are essential to reduce Trypanosoma cruzi transmission and could provide information to estimate population prevalence. We conducted a cross-sectional study on the prevalence of immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibodies against T. cruzi in healthy blood donors, solid organ donors and heart transplant recipients from 2012 to 2019. We found a total of 99 357 IgG T. cruzi results during the study period. The cumulative seroprevalence in healthy blood donors was 0.13% (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.10–0.15), in organ donors was 0.53% (95% CI 0.06–1.92) and in heart transplant recipients was 3.03 (95% CI 0.07–15.75). Seroprevalence trend in healthy blood donors showed annual increase between 2012 and 2015, decreasing in the following years. No trend was seen in organ donors neither heart recipients. Adjusted rates did not show difference by sex and age among blood donors. No significant increases in seroprevalence T. cruzi were found during the study period. T. cruzi transmission remains low.

This study examined the epidemiological and clinical characteristics of measles in Wenzhou, China. From 2000 to 2010, a total of 13271 measles cases were reported in Wenzhou, with epidemics occurring every 3-4 years. Forty-five per cent of the cases were aged <1 year and 27·2% were aged >14 years. Of 2262 hospitalized measles cases, 66·3% were diagnosed with pneumonia, and three cases died from respiratory failure. The number of measles cases of infants requiring hospitalization increased from birth to age 8 months and declined thereafter. Measurement of serum measles antibody levels in normal infants indicates that over 80% of infants in Wenzhou may be susceptible to measles by age 6 months. The existence of a sufficient pool of unvaccinated children and the decreased level of passively transferred measles antibodies in infants from vaccinated mothers contributed to the sustained transmission observed in Wenzhou.

This study aimed to evaluate the contrast-enhanced ultrasound (CEUS) features of ureteral tuberculosis (UTB) and ureteral malignant tumour and to explore its application value in the differentiation of UTB from ureteral tumour. The ultrasound (US) and CEUS imaging features of 33 and 12 cases of pathologically confirmed UTB and ureteral malignant tumour, respectively, were retrospectively evaluated, and echo of the ureteral wall, abnormal echo of the lumen, degree of ureteral dilation and CEUS patterns of the two diseases were statistically analysed. The results revealed that the lumen echo of UTB was hyperechoic or anechoic, whereas that of ureteral tumour lesions was hypoechoic (χ2 = 28.22, P < 0.001). The wall echo of the obstruction site differed between the two diseases; in UTB, the ureteral wall was thickened but the outer wall remained intact, whereas in ureteral tumour, both the malignant tumour wall and outer wall were irregular (χ2 = 30.25, P < 0.001). CEUS of UTB revealed nonenhancement or heterogeneous enhancement in the lumen, whereas that of ureteral tumours revealed significant homogeneous enhancement (χ2 = 30.25, P < 0.001). Thus, CEUS can reveal lesion microcirculation and be used to evaluate blood supply characteristics in the lesion, indicating that it has high potential for differentiating the two diseases.

1. Early blood culture is the best method of laboratory diagnosis in the inoculated case of enteric fever, but agglutination tests may give useful information.

2. In inoculated cases of enteric fever O and Vi agglutinins may be absent or present only at low titres. Steadily rising titres are not the rule and the titres more often fluctuate.

3. Complete agglutination at titres over 1: 80 for TO, over 1: 40 for AO, or over 1: 10 for Vi is suggestive but not diagnostic of an active infection.

4. Non-specific stimulation of the O and Vi agglutinins in the inoculated affects mainly the lower range of titres which are probably of little diagnostic significance.

5. Previous inoculations increase the proportion of people with residual O agglutinins within 6 months of the last inoculation but do not affect the Vi agglutinins.

6. Vi agglutinins may be present in normal inoculated persons who are not carriers.

Coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) elicits a range of different responses in patients and can manifest into mild to very severe cases in different individuals, depending on many factors. We aimed to establish a prediction model of severe risk in COVID-19 patients, to help clinicians achieve early prevention, intervention and aid them in choosing effective therapeutic strategy. We selected confirmed COVID-19 patients who were admitted to First Hospital of Changsha city between 29 January and 15 February 2020 and collected their clinical data. Multivariate logical regression was used to identify the factors associated with severe risk. These factors were incorporated into the nomogram to establish the model. The ROC curve, calibration plot and decision curve were used to assess the performance of the model. A total of 228 patients were enrolled and 33 (14.47%) patients developed severe pneumonia. Univariate and multivariate analysis showed that shortness of breath, fatigue, creatine kinase, lymphocytes and h CRP were independent factors for severe risk in COVID-19 patients. Incorporating age, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and these factors, the nomogram achieved good concordance indexes of 0.89 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.832–0.949] and well-fitted calibration plot curves (Hosmer–Lemeshow test: P = 0.97). The model provided superior net benefit when clinical decision thresholds were between 15% and 85% predicted risk. Using the model, clinicians can intervene early, improve therapeutic effects and reduce the severity of COVID-19, thus ensuring more targeted and efficient use of medical resources.

An outbreak of food poisoning which occurred at Brighton in November, 1917, showed several features of unusual interest which makes its publication of value. While the epidemiological inquires and pathological investigations were carried out separately a coherent narrative is best obtained by combined presentation. The pathological investigations were carried out for, and at the request of, the Local Government Board.

The outbreak occurred in the Royal Sussex County Hospital which at the time contained 369 residents, 227 being patients and 142 staff. Twenty-eight persons suffered from food poisoning, 24 of whom were patients and 4 members of the staff. Two deaths occurred but both were patients already suffering from severe diseases.

Multicomponent cyclicity in influenza (flu) incidence had been observed in various countries (e.g. periods T = 1, 2–3, 5–6, 8·0, 10·6–11·3, 13, 18–19 years) and its close similarity with cycles in natural environmental phenomena as meteorological factors and heliogeophysical activity (HGA) suggested. This report aimed at verifying previous results on cyclic patterns of flu incidence by exploring whether flu annual cyclicity (seasonality) and trans-year (13 to <24 months) and/or multiannual (long-term, ⩾24 months) cycles might be present. For this purpose, a relatively long monthly flu incidence dataset consisting of absolute numbers of new cases from the Grand Baku area, Azerbaijan, for the years 1976–2000 (300 months) was analysed. The exploration of underlying chronomes or, time structures, was done by linear and nonlinear parametric regression models, autocorrelation, spectral analysis and periodogram regression analysis. We analysed temporal dynamics and described multicomponent cyclicity, determining its statistical significance. The analysis, considering the flu data specifically stratified in three distinct intervals (1976–1990, 1991–1995, 1996–2000), and also combinations thereof, indicated that the main cyclic pattern was a seasonal one, with a period of T = 12 months. Further, a number of multiannual cycles with periods T in the ranges of 26–36, 62–85 or 113–162 months were observed, i.e. average periods of 2·5, 6·1 and 11·5 years, respectively. Indeed, most of these cycles correspond to similar cyclic parameters of HGA and further analyses are warranted to investigate such relationships. In conclusion, our study revealed the presence of multicomponent cyclic dynamics in influenza incidence by using relatively long time-series of monthly data. The specific cyclic patterns of flu incidence in Azerbaijan allows further, more specific modelling and correlations with environmental factors of similar cyclicity, e.g. HGA, to be explored. These results might contribute more widely to a better understanding of influenza dynamics and its aetiology as well as to the derivation of more precise forecasted estimates for planning and prevention purposes.

About 25 years ago Dr J. S. Haldane, Dr A. E. Boycott and Capt. Damant, R.N., in the course of investigations for the British Admiralty, worked out a system of decompression for divers and compressed air workers. This system was adopted by the Admiralty, and by its use compressed air sickness has been practically eliminated entirely amongst naval divers. The system has become known as stage decompression, although in fact stages are not an essential feature of it, though a convenience in practical working. The system has been frequently and fully described. The latest explanation will be found in the last edition, 1935, revised by Haldane and Priestly, of Respiration, by J. S. Haldane (Clarendon Press). Its most essential feature is that the pressure is lowered quickly to approximately half the absolute pressure during decompression, and one of the most important assumptions for working out the decompression tables is that different parts of the body saturate and desaturate at different rates. Enquiries sent out by me during 1934 to the United States, the principal countries of Europe and to Japan indicate, so far as definite information has been received in reply, that stage decompression has been universally adopted for divers, but in no case has it been adopted for caisson and tunnel workers in countries where State regulations already existed, except in a modified form, and I conclude that the reason for this failure to adopt stage decompression is the existence of statutory regulations, either still in force, or only partly modified in accordance with new ideas.

A simple modification of Wilson & Blair's medium for the isolation of typhoid and paratyphoid bacilli has been evolved.

1. Instead of the original six ingredients, this modification contains only three, namely, brilliant green, bismuth-ammonium-citrate and sodium sulphite, and may therefore be conveniently termed “B.B.S. medium”.

2. The glucose, sodium phosphate and ferrous sulphate of the original medium are eliminated. The bismuth-ammonium-citrate solution is made without caustic soda.

3. The B.B.S. medium keeps well for several weeks. Deterioration can easily be detected and readily rectified.

4. The inhibitory action towards B. aerogenes is greatly improved in the B.B.S. medium. This is particularly advantageous in countries where this organism is frequently encountered.

5. B. typhosus and B. paratyphosus grow readily. The colonies are sufficiently characteristic and can be picked out early for confirmatory tests.

6. Using B.B.S. medium a complete diagnosis should be possible within 48 hr.