Pseudomonas aeruginosa is the opportunistic pathogen mostly implicated in folliculitis and acute otitis externa in pools and hot tubs. Nevertheless, infection risks remain poorly quantified. This paper reviews disease aetiologies and bacterial skin colonization science to advance dose-response theory development. Three model forms are identified for predicting disease likelihood from pathogen density. Two are based on Furumoto & Mickey's exponential ‘single-hit’ model and predict infection likelihood and severity (lesions/m2), respectively. ‘Third-generation’, mechanistic, dose-response algorithm development is additionally scoped. The proposed formulation integrates dispersion, epidermal interaction, and follicle invasion. The review also details uncertainties needing consideration which pertain to water quality, outbreaks, exposure time, infection sites, biofilms, cerumen, environmental factors (e.g. skin saturation, hydrodynamics), and whether P. aeruginosa is endogenous or exogenous. The review's findings are used to propose a conceptual infection model and identify research priorities including pool dose-response modelling, epidermis ecology and infection likelihood-based hygiene management.

Community-onset methicillin resistant Staphylococcus aureus (CO-MRSA) became a prominent cause of infection in North America in 2003, with a peak in the epidemic noted by multiple groups in the USA between 2005 and 2007. We reviewed rates of MRSA in two hospitals in Vancouver, Canada, to observe changes in epidemiology from 2003 to 2011. Episodes of emergency department (ED) MRSA bacteraemia and wounds were extracted from the laboratory database, with rates calculated per 10 000 ED visits. All cases were assumed to be community onset, as they were diagnosed in the ED. A peak in ED MRSA bacteraemias occurred in 2005, at 7·8/10 000 ED visits. By 2011, rates of ED bacteraemia declined significantly to 3·3/10 000 ED visits (P⩽0·03). MRSA wound rates peaked at 82·2 cases/10 000 ED visits in 2007 with a subsequent significant decline to 34·3 cases in 2011 (P = 0·04). We have demonstrated a significant decline in CO-MRSA within our population, consistent with reports from the USA, suggesting a substantial change in the epidemiology of CO-MRSA in certain North American cities.

We present a basic mathematical model of Staphylococcus aureus transmission in the USA based on natural history of infection and nationally representative data. We employed a Susceptible-Colonized-Infected-Recovered-Susceptible compartmental modelling framework with two different phenotypes of S. aureus: methicillin-susceptible (MSSA) and methicillin-resistant (MRSA). The model is dynamic and accounts for the US population growth. For model calibration/validation, we used published 1999–2005 S. aureus infection data in conjunction with the 2001–2004 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey colonization data. Baseline model projections illustrated how MRSA might continue to expand and gradually replace MSSA over time, in the absence of intervention, if there is strong competition for colonization. The model-based estimate of the basic reproduction number (R0) highlights the need for infection control. We illustrate the potential population-level impact of intervention with a hypothetical S. aureus vaccination component.

We report the molecular characterization of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) with resistance to tigecycline and to daptomycin isolated from intensive-care-unit patients in Brazil over a 6-month period. Thirty-six isolates (25 from infection sites, 11 from nasal sites) recovered from 23 patients who presented with MRSA infection during this period were characterized by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis, multilocus sequence typing, staphylococcal cassette chromosome mec (SCCmec) typing, and antimicrobial susceptibility profiling. Ten isolates from six patients and two isolates from different patients were resistant to tigecycline and daptomycin, respectively. Eight pulsotypes were identified and one, type A, accounted for 21 isolates from 12 patients; type A isolates were SCCmecII as were a further nine isolates of other pulsotypes. All but four of the total isolates were sequence type (ST) 5 or ST105 and classified as clonal complex (CC) 5; the historically prevalent lineage in Brazil, ST239-SCCmecIII, was identified in only three patients. Tigecycline-resistant strains were all ST105-SCCmecII and two patients were nasally colonized by strains of the same pulsotype found in infection sites. Two ST5-SCCmecII were daptomycin resistant after 48 h incubation. The origin and mechanism of these resistant strains remains unknown and further studies are warranted to determine whether such clones are becoming endemic in Brazilian hospitals and to assess their impact on infection control practice.

To assess the prevalence and risk factors for colonization with Staphylococcus aureus in inmates entering two maximum-security prisons in New York State, USA, inmates (N = 830) were interviewed and anterior nares and oropharyngeal samples collected. Isolates were characterized using spa typing. Overall, 50·5% of women and 58·3% of men were colonized with S. aureus and 10·6% of women and 5·9% of men were colonized with MRSA at either or both body sites. Of MSSA isolates, the major subtypes were spa type 008 and 002. Overall, risk factors for S. aureus colonization varied by gender and were only found in women and included younger age, fair/poor self-reported general health, and longer length of prior incarceration. Prevalence of MRSA colonization was 8·2%, nearly 10 times greater than in the general population. Control of epidemic S. aureus in prisons should consider the constant introduction of strains by new inmates.

The objective of this study was to evaluate the impact of restricting high-risk antibiotics on methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) incidence rates in a hospital setting. A secondary objective was to assess the impact of reducing fluoroquinolone use in the primary-care setting on MRSA incidence in the community. This was an interventional, retrospective, ecological investigation in both hospital and community (January 2006 to June 2010). Segmented regression analysis of interrupted time-series was employed to evaluate the intervention. The restriction of high-risk antibiotics was associated with a significant change in hospital MRSA incidence trend (coefficient = −0·00561, P = 0·0057). Analysis showed that the intervention relating to reducing fluoroquinolone use in the community was associated with a significant trend change in MRSA incidence in community (coefficient = −0·00004, P = 0·0299). The reduction in high-risk antibiotic use and fluoroquinolone use contributed to both a reduction in incidence rates of MRSA in hospital and community (primary-care) settings.

Community-acquired Staphylococcus aureus infections are a public health concern, yet little is known about infections that do not present to hospital. We identified community-onset S. aureus infections via specimens submitted to a community-based pathology service. Referring doctors confirmed eligibility and described infection site, severity and treatment. Isolates were characterized on antibiotic resistance, PFGE, MLST/SCCmec, and Panton–Valentine leukocidin (PVL), representing 106 community-onset infections; 34 non-multiresistant methicillin-resistant S. aureus (nmMRSA) (resistant to <3 non-β-lactam antibiotics), 15 multiply antibiotic-resistant MRSA (mMRSA) and 57 methicillin-sensitive S. aureus (MSSA). Most (93%) were skin and soft tissue infections. PVL genes were carried by 42% of nmMRSA isolates [95% confidence interval (CI) 26–61] and 15% of MSSA (95% CI 8–28). PVL was associated with infections of the trunk, head or neck (56·4% vs. 24·3%, P = 0·005) in younger patients (23 vs. 52 years, P < 0·001), and with boils or abscesses (OR 8·67, 95% CI 2·9–26·2), suggesting underlying differences in exposure and/or pathogenesis.

In order to investigate for possible differences between paediatric and adult invasive Streptococcus pyogenes (iGAS) infections, a total of 142 cases were identified in 17 Greek hospitals during 2003–2007, of which 96 were children and 46 adults. Bacteraemia, soft tissue infections, streptococcal toxic shock syndrome (STSS), and necrotizing fasciitis were the main clinical presentations (67·6%, 45·1%, 13·4%, and 12·0% of cases, respectively). Bacteraemia and lymphadenitis were significantly more frequent in children (P = 0·019 and 0·021, respectively), whereas STSS was more frequent in adults (P = 0·017). The main predisposing factors in children were varicella and streptococcal pharyngotonsillitis (25% and 19·8%, respectively), as opposed to malignancy, intravenous drug abuse and diabetes mellitus in adults (19·6%, 15·2% and 10·9%, respectively). Of the two dominant emm-types, 1 and 12 (28·2% and 8·5%, respectively), the proportion of emm-type 12 remained stable during the study period, whereas emm-type 1 rates fluctuated considerably. Strains of emm-type 1 from children were associated with erythromycin susceptibility, STSS and intensive-care-unit admission, whereas emm-type 12 isolates from adults were associated with erythromycin and clindamycin resistance. Finally, specific emm-types were detected exclusively in adults or in children. In conclusion, several clinical and epidemiological differences were detected, that could prove useful in designing age-focused strategies for prevention and treatment of iGAS infections.

Many infectious diseases exhibit repetitive or regular behaviour over time. Time-domain approaches, such as the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model, are often utilized to examine the cyclical behaviour of such diseases. The limitations for time-domain approaches include over-differencing and over-fitting; furthermore, the use of these approaches is inappropriate when the assumption of linearity may not hold. In this study, we implemented a simple and efficient procedure based on the fast Fourier transformation (FFT) approach to evaluate the epidemic dynamic of scarlet fever incidence (2004–2010) in China. This method demonstrated good internal and external validities and overcame some shortcomings of time-domain approaches. The procedure also elucidated the cycling behaviour in terms of environmental factors. We concluded that, under appropriate circumstances of data structure, spectral analysis based on the FFT approach may be applicable for the study of oscillating diseases.

Although post-weaning mortality (PWM) in pig farming is mainly due to the effect of pathogens, farm type or swine management are also directly or indirectly involved. In this work, we used null models and the partial least squares approach (PLS) to structural equation modelling, also known as PLS path modelling (PLS-PM), to explore whether farm type, swine management and pathogens, including porcine circovirus type 2, swine influenza virus, porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus and Aujeszky's disease virus, directly or indirectly influenced PWM in 42 Spanish indoor pig farms. The null model analysis revealed that contact with multiple combinations of viruses could occur by chance. On the other hand, PLS-PM showed that farm characteristics do not influence virus infections, and thus neither farm type nor associated management practices shaped PWM due to pathogens. Accordingly, preventive programmes aimed at controlling PWM in intensive farming should prioritize the control of major pig pathogens.

The generalizability of a prediction model from North America for incident nosocomial pneumonia following coronary artery bypass graft surgery was assessed for 23247 patients on the Australian and New Zealand Society of Cardiac and Thoracic Surgeons (ANZSCTS) registry. The performance of the North American model was evaluated using measures of calibration and discrimination. The model had reasonable discrimination (area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve, AUC = 0·69), but unsatisfactory calibration (Hosmer–Lemeshow test, P < 0·001) in the ANZSCTS patients. An update of the model coefficients yielded a model with AUC = 0·71 and good calibration (P = 0·46).

We present a stochastic dynamical model for the transmission of dengue that considers the co-evolution of the spatial dynamics of the vectors (Aedes aegypti) and hosts (human population), allowing the simulation of control strategies adapted to the actual evolution of an epidemic outbreak. We observed that imposing restrictions on the movement of infected humans is not a highly effective strategy. In contrast, isolating infected individuals with high levels of compliance by the human population is efficient even when implemented with delays during an ongoing outbreak. We also studied insecticide-spraying strategies assuming different (hypothetical) efficiencies. We observed that highly efficient fumigation strategies seem to be effective during an outbreak. Nevertheless, taking into account the controversial results on the use of spraying as a single control strategy, we suggest that carrying out combined strategies of fumigation and isolation during an epidemic outbreak should account for a suitable strategy for the attenuation of epidemic outbreaks.

Information on the incidence of Chlamydia trachomatis (CT) is essential for models of the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of screening programmes. We developed two independent estimates of CT incidence in women in England: one based on an incidence study, with estimates ‘recalibrated’ to the general population using data on setting-specific relative risks, and allowing for clearance and re-infection during follow-up; the second based on UK prevalence data, and information on the duration of CT infection. The consistency of independent sources of data on incidence, prevalence and duration, validates estimates of these parameters. Pooled estimates of the annual incidence rate in women aged 16–24 and 16–44 years for 2001–2005 using all these data were 0·05 [95% credible interval (CrI) 0·035–0·071] and 0·021 (95% CrI 0·015–0·028), respectively. Although, the estimates apply to England, similar methods could be used in other countries. The methods could be extended to dynamic models to synthesize, and assess the consistency of data on contact and transmission rates.

The abrupt transition to heightened poliomyelitis epidemicity in England and Wales, 1947–1957, was associated with a profound change in the spatial dynamics of the disease. Drawing on the complete record of poliomyelitis notifications in England and Wales, we use a robust method of spatial epidemiological analysis (swash-backwash model) to evaluate the geographical rate of disease propagation in successive poliomyelitis seasons, 1940–1964. Comparisons with earlier and later time periods show that the period of heightened poliomyelitis epidemicity corresponded with a sudden and pronounced increase in the spatial rate of disease propagation. This change was observed for both urban and rural areas and points to an abrupt enhancement in the propensity for the geographical spread of polioviruses. Competing theories of the epidemic emergence of poliomyelitis in England and Wales should be assessed in the light of this evidence.

A large outbreak of norovirus (NoV) gastroenteritis caused by contaminated municipal drinking water occurred in Lilla Edet, Sweden, 2008. Epidemiological investigations performed using a questionnaire survey showed an association between consumption of municipal drinking water and illness (odds ratio 4·73, 95% confidence interval 3·53–6·32), and a strong correlation between the risk of being sick and the number of glasses of municipal water consumed. Diverse NoV strains were detected in stool samples from patients, NoV genotype I strains predominating. Although NoVs were not detected in water samples, coliphages were identified as a marker of viral contamination. About 2400 (18·5%) of the 13 000 inhabitants in Lilla Edet became ill. Costs associated with the outbreak were collected via a questionnaire survey given to organizations and municipalities involved in or affected by the outbreak. Total costs including sick leave, were estimated to be ∼8 700 000 Swedish kronor (∼€0·87 million).

Over a 12-year period, the Health Protection Agency's (now Public Health England's) Department of Gastrointestinal and Emerging Infections (GEZI) investigated over 100 potential national outbreaks of Salmonella enterica. These ranged from a cluster of cases requiring data interrogation and monitoring of the situation, to full blown case-control studies involving hundreds of interviews, many staff, multi-agency collaboration and the media. Vehicles of infection ranged from the usual suspects of chicken and eggs, to the less frequently implicated snake feed and chocolate. This has forced us to alter our preconceptions of disease transmission. The way in which GEZI investigate outbreaks and conduct case-control studies is constantly evolving as we learn and adapt to the changing aetiology of S. enterica. We present the findings and lessons learned during the last 12 years of investigating S. enterica outbreaks in England and Wales.

We studied associations between monthly counts of laboratory-confirmed cases of salmonellosis, ambient air temperature and precipitation in four settings in Kazakhstan. We observed a linear association between the number of cases of salmonellosis and mean monthly temperature during the same months only in Astana: an increase of 1°C was associated with a 5·5% [95% confidence interval (CI) 2·2–8·8] increase in the number of cases. A similar association, although not reaching the level of significance was observed in the Southern Kazakhstan region (3·5%, 95% CI −2·1 to 9·1). Positive association with precipitation with lag 2 was found in Astana: an increase of 1 mm was associated with a 0·5% (95% CI 0·1–1·0) increase in the number of cases. A similar association, but with lag 0 was observed in Southern Kazakhstan region (0·6%, 95% CI 0·1–1·1). The results may have implications for the future patterns of salmonellosis in Kazakhstan with regard to climate change.

Enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli (ETEC) is now recognized as a common cause of foodborne outbreaks. This study aimed to describe the first ETEC O169 outbreak identified in Korea. In this outbreak, we identified 1642 cases from seven schools. Retrospective cohort studies were performed in two schools; and case-control studies were conducted in five schools. In two schools, radish kimchi was associated with illness; and in five other schools, radish or cabbage kimchi was found to have a higher risk among food items. Adjusted relative risk of kimchi was 5·87–7·21 in schools that underwent cohort studies; and adjusted odds ratio was 4·52–12·37 in schools that underwent case-control studies. ETEC O169 was isolated from 230 affected students, and was indistinguishable from the isolates detected from the kimchi product distributed by company X, a food company that produced and distributed kimchi to all seven schools. In this outbreak, we found that the risk of a kimchi-borne outbreak of ETEC O169 infection is present in Korea. We recommend continued monitoring regarding food safety in Korea, and strengthening surveillance regarding ETEC O169 infection through implementation of active laboratory surveillance to confirm its infection.

Human behaviours, which are influenced by social, cultural, economic and political factors, can increase or decrease the risk of dengue infection, depending on the relationship with the insect vector. Because no vaccine is currently available, the spread of dengue can only be curtailed by controlling vector populations (Aedes aegypti and others) and by protecting individuals. This study tested the hypothesis that dengue-affected populations are likely to relax their vector-control habits if a potentially protective vaccine becomes available. The hypothesis was tested using two approaches: a mathematical model designed to describe dengue transmission and an empirical field test in which the local population of an endemic area was interviewed about their vector-control habits given the presence of a theoretical vaccine. The model demonstrated that depending on the level of vector-control reduction, there is a threshold in vaccine efficacy below which it is better not to introduce the vaccine. The interview showed that people who were informed that a very effective vaccine is available would reduce their vector-control habits significantly compared to a group that was informed that the vaccine is not very effective.