Deaths in England attributable to pandemic (H1N1) 2009 deaths were investigated through a mandatory reporting system. The pandemic came in two waves. The second caused greater population mortality than the first (5·4 vs. 1·6 deaths per million, P<0·001). Mortality was particularly high in those with chronic neurological disease, chronic heart disease and immune suppression (450, 100, and 94 deaths per million, respectively); significantly higher than in those with chronic respiratory disease (39 per million) and those with no risk factors (2·4 per million). Greater mortality in the second wave has been observed in all previous influenza pandemics. This time, the explanation appears to be behavioural. This emphasizes the importance of maintaining public and clinical awareness of risks associated with pandemic influenza beyond the initial high-profile period.

Reliable estimates of the burden of 2009 pandemic influenza A(pH1N1) cannot be easily obtained because only a small fraction of infections were confirmed by laboratory tests in a timely manner. In this study we developed a Poisson prediction modelling approach to estimate the excess mortality associated with pH1N1 in 2009 and seasonal influenza in 1998–2008 in the subtropical city Hong Kong. The results suggested that there were 127 all-cause excess deaths associated with pH1N1, including 115 with cardiovascular and respiratory disease, and 22 with pneumonia and influenza. The excess mortality rates associated with pH1N1 were highest in the population aged ⩾65 years. The mortality burden of influenza during the whole of 2009 was comparable to those in the preceding ten inter-pandemic years. The estimates of excess deaths were more than twofold higher than the reported fatal cases with laboratory-confirmed pH1N1 infection.

In spring 2009 a new strain of influenza A(H1N1) emerged and caused a worldwide pandemic. This study utilized a large collection of respiratory specimens from suspected cases of influenza A(H1N1) in the UK West Midlands during the pandemic in order to investigate which other respiratory viruses were circulating and whether they played any role in the increased hospitalization rates seen during that period. Study specimens were selected from community and hospitalized patients positive and negative for influenza A(H1N1) and tested by PCR for other respiratory viruses. A number of infections diagnosed as influenza during the summer influenza outbreak were found to be due to other virus infections (most commonly rhinovirus). No statistically significant difference was found between the rates of respiratory virus co-infection with H1N1 in patients from community or hospital locations suggesting underlying factors were likely to be more significant than viral co-infections in determining severity of influenza A(H1N1) disease.

The aim of this work was to use experimental infection data of human influenza to assess a simple viral dynamics model in epithelial cells and better understand the underlying complex factors governing the infection process. The developed study model expands on previous reports of a target cell-limited model with delayed virus production. Data from 10 published experimental infection studies of human influenza was used to validate the model. Our results elucidate, mechanistically, the associations between epithelial cells, human immune responses, and viral titres and were supported by the experimental infection data. We report that the maximum total number of free virions following infection is 103-fold higher than the initial introduced titre. Our results indicated that the infection rates of unprotected epithelial cells probably play an important role in affecting viral dynamics. By simulating an advanced model of viral dynamics and applying it to experimental infection data of human influenza, we obtained important estimates of the infection rate. This work provides epidemiologically meaningful results, meriting further efforts to understand the causes and consequences of influenza A infection.

The relationship between knowledge, risk perceptions, health belief towards seasonal influenza and vaccination and the vaccination behaviours of nurses was explored. Qualified nurses attending continuing professional education courses at a large London university between 18 April and 18 October 2010 were surveyed (522/672; response rate 77·7%). Of these, 82·6% worked in hospitals; 37·0% reported receiving seasonal influenza vaccination in the previous season and 44·9% reported never being vaccinated during the last 5 years. All respondents were categorized using two-step cluster analyses into never, occasionally, and continuously vaccinated groups. Nurses vaccinated the season before had higher scores of knowledge and risk perception compared to the unvaccinated (P<0·001). Nurses never vaccinated had the lowest scores of knowledge and risk perception compared to other groups (P<0·001). Nurses' seasonal influenza vaccination behaviours are complex. Knowledge and risk perception predict uptake of vaccination in nurses.

We investigated a measles outbreak in the Jerusalem district in 2007–2008 (992 cases). Most cases (72·6%) were aged <15 years, 42·9% aged <5 years, and 12·8% were infants aged <1 year. The peak incidence rate was in infants aged 6–12 months (916·2/100 000). This represents a significant shift from former outbreaks in 2003–2004, where the peak incidence was in the 1–4 years age group. Of children aged <5 years the proportion aged 6–12 months tripled (7·7% vs. 25·6%). In a case-control study (74 cases, 148 controls) children who developed measles were less likely to be registered in a well-baby clinic and had lower overall immunization coverage. The differences in proportions for registration, DTaP3 and MMR1 coverage were 35·1%, 48·6% and 80·8%, respectively (all P<0·001). Rising birth order of cases and their siblings was associated with non-registration and non-compliance with MMR immunization. The vulnerability of young infants and the risk markers noted above should be taken into account in planning intervention programmes.

In order to contain a measles outbreak in a German asylum-seekers' shelter, serological testing of all residents was performed, followed by selective vaccination of those with negative test results/not tested. In this paper we describe the outbreak epidemiologically and then compare the implemented strategy with a hypothetical mass vaccination of all individuals unvaccinated or with unknown vaccination status born after 1970 as recommended by the German Standing Committee on Vaccination in terms of potentially avoided cases, logistics, and costs. Three hundred (70%) residents participated in the serological testing, of which 39 (13%) were seronegative. In total, 144 individuals were eligible for vaccination, while a mass vaccination would have targeted 359 persons. However, serological testing was time- and personnel consuming and revealed several logistical problems. Its costs amounted to €90 000, double that of mass vaccination that additionally might have avoided three of the eight cases. Mass vaccination seems the preferred measure for measles outbreak control in such settings.

Passive immunity against measles decreases during the first months of life. The objective of this study was to determine titres of measles antibodies in children aged 9–14 months and their mothers before vaccination, and the children's response to vaccination. Blood samples were collected by capillary puncture before and 28 days after vaccination. Samples were obtained between February and June 2007 during an ongoing measles outbreak. Titres of specific measles IgG antibodies were determined by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Seroconversion was defined as the presence of antibodies after vaccination in subjects without antibodies before vaccination. Maternal antibodies were present in 37·7% of all 69 children included and in 45·1% of children aged 9 months. Of the 51 children in whom a second sample was obtained, 31 (60·8%) were seronegative before vaccination and 61·3% seroconverted. Interference of maternal antibodies was 30%. Advancing the first dose of measles vaccination from 15 to 12 months is a correct strategy, given the increase in the time of susceptibility of infants to measles.

Measles control in China is monitored in part by surveillance of circulating wild-type viruses. The objective of this study was genetic characterization and phylogenetic analysis of measles strains in the Nantong City region of Jiangsu province, China, during 2010. Sera from suspected cases were tested for IgM antibodies and measles virus isolated by inoculation of transport medium onto Vero/SLAM cells. Isolated strains were phylogenetically analysed according to the nucleotide sequence of the C-terminal region of the nucleoprotein gene amplified by RT–PCR. The results revealed 34 cases confirmed by positive IgM, for an incidence of 0·45/100 000. Six isolates identified were all clustered within genotype H1. The findings reported here support continued endemic transmission of measles virus in China.

With the aim of minimizing adverse health outcomes and reducing the risk of outbreaks, we offered one dose of MMR vaccine to children known to be incompletely immunized at the time of teenage booster vaccination in secondary schools in Swindon in 2011. The Child Health Department database was queried to identify Year 10 children who had had zero or one dose of MMR vaccine previously. Of the 316 children offered vaccination, 60 received a first dose and 87 received a second dose of MMR vaccine. Fourteen children had two documented doses in the past and two had contraindications to the vaccine. Overall uptake of two doses of MMR vaccine increased from 86·3% to 90·6%. The valuable uptake achieved demonstrates that an opportunistic offer of MMR vaccine for unimmunized children at schools is feasible and beneficial. MMR vaccine should be offered routinely to unimmunized children at the time of school vaccination programmes, especially in areas with sub-optimal coverage.

The introduction and rapid spread of West Nile virus (WNV) into new areas such as the American continent, associated also with the severity of the disease in humans and equids has increased concerns regarding the need to better prevent and control future WNV incursions. WNV outbreaks in equids usually occur under specific climatic and environmental conditions and, typically, before detection of WNV cases in humans. Targeting surveillance strategies in areas and time periods identified as suitable for WNV outbreaks in equids may act as an early-warning system to prevent disease in both equids and humans. This study used a GIS-based framework to identify suitable areas and time periods for WNV outbreak occurrence in one of the most important areas of equid production in Spain, i.e. Castile and Leon. Methods and results presented here may help to improve the early detection and control of future WNV outbreaks in Spain and other regions.

Accurate data on West Nile virus (WNV) cases help guide public health education and control activities, and impact regional WNV blood product screening procedures. During an outbreak of WNV disease in Arizona, records from patients with meningitis or encephalitis were reviewed to determine the proportion tested for WNV. Of 60 patients identified with meningitis or encephalitis, 24 (40%) were tested for WNV. Only 12 (28%) of 43 patients aged <50 years were tested for WNV compared to 12 (71%) of 17 patients aged ⩾50 years (P<0·01). Patients with clinical signs of weakness or paralysis, elevated CSF protein, admitted to an inpatient facility, or discharged to a rehabilitation facility were also more likely to have WNV testing performed. The lack of testing in younger age groups and in those with less severe disease probably resulted in substantial underestimates of WNV neuroinvasive disease burden.

We elucidated the molecular epidemiology and evolution of Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) strains isolated from 1949 to 2009 in China in this study. Three genotypes (I, III, V) were confirmed to be co-circulating in China in both high- and low-prevalence areas. Genotype III consisted of two clades (mainland clade and Taiwan clade). Compared to the mainland clade, genotype I and the Taiwan clade were newly introduced and evolved more rapidly. We also demonstrated that JEV strains in China, especially those in the mainland clade, were not only under purifying selection, but also probably under positive selection (aa 227 and 408 in the envelope protein).

In August 2008, a large outbreak of Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) O111:NM infections associated with a buffet-style restaurant in rural Oklahoma was identified. A case-control study of restaurant patrons and a retrospective cohort study of catered event attendees were conducted coupled with an environmental investigation to determine the outbreak's source and mode of transmission. Of 1823 persons interviewed, 341 (18·7%) met the outbreak case definition; 70 (20·5%) were hospitalized, 25 (7·3%) developed haemolytic uraemic syndrome, and one died. Multiple food items were significantly associated with illness by both bivariate and multivariate analyses, but none stood out as a predominant transmission vehicle. All water, food, and restaurant surface swabs, and stool cultures from nine ill employees were negative for the presence of Shiga toxin and E. coli O111:NM although epidemiological evidence suggested the outbreak resulted from cross-contamination of restaurant food from food preparation equipment or surfaces, or from an unidentified infected food handler.

More than 70% of reported human Salmonella infections in Norway are infected abroad. The Canary Islands and Thailand are two of the most popular charter tourist destinations for Norwegians. Using surveillance data for the years 1994–2008, and denominator data on travel to the Canary Islands 2000–2008 and to Thailand 1997–2008, we present the epidemiology and trends of Salmonella infections in Norwegian tourists to these destinations. We found a declining trend in risk of salmonellosis in tourists returning from the Canary Islands, and a change in serovar distribution in travellers to Thailand with more S. Enteritidis infections, similar to that observed in Western European countries. The use of denominator data is important when studying risk of travel-related disease, as surveillance data tend to reflect travel activity more than the risk. Infections among tourists do not always affect the local residents and therefore may not be detected by local public health authorities. Sharing knowledge on the epidemiology of infections in tourists could be useful for observation of changes in trends in the countries visited, and in future outbreak investigations.

Despite recent improvements, New Zealand still has one of the highest per-capita incidence rates of campylobacteriosis in the world. To reduce the incidence, a thorough understanding of the epidemiology of infection is needed. This retrospective analysis of 36 000 notified human cases during a high-risk period between 2001 and 2007 explored the spatial and temporal determinants of Campylobacter notifications at a fine spatial scale in order to improve understanding of the complex epidemiology. Social deprivation was associated with a decreased risk of notification, whereas urban residence was associated with an increased risk. However, for young children rural residence was a risk factor. High dairy cattle density was associated with an increased risk of notification in two of the three regions investigated. Campylobacter notification patterns exhibit large temporal variations; however, few factors were associated with periods of increased risk, in particular temperature did not appear to drive the seasonality in campylobacteriosis.

Infectious diarrhoea caused by bacterial pathogens contributes to the high level of mortality in developing countries like Bangladesh. Following standard bacteriological procedures, a total of 14 428 bacterial pathogens were isolated from 56 132 stool samples and rectal swabs collected from diarrhoeal patients between 2005 and 2008. The rate of isolation and antimicrobial susceptibility data were retrospectively analysed for these isolates and among them Vibrio spp. (42·9%) were the most predominant, followed by Shigella spp. (20·3%), Aeromonas spp. (12·8%) and Salmonella spp. (6·4%). A decreasing trend in isolation of Vibrio spp. (P<0·001) and Salmonella spp. (P<0·001) was observed. While Vibrio cholerae isolates remained susceptible to ciprofloxacin, an increase in resistance was observed in Campylobacter spp. and Shigella flexneri. Variations in susceptibility to other tested antibiotics were observed among the isolated pathogens. Access to this current data will help in understanding the local burden of diarrhoeal disease and contribute to better design of prevention programmes.

This study describes the epidemiology of human salmonellosis in New Zealand using notified, hospitalized and fatal cases over a 12-year period (1997–2008). The average annual incidence for notifications was 42·8/100 000 population and 3·6/100 000 population for hospitalizations. Incidence was about twice as high in summer as in winter. Rural areas had higher rates than urban areas (rate ratio 1·23, 95% confidence interval 1·22–1·24 for notifications) and a distinct spring peak. Incidence was highest in the 0–4 years age group (154·2 notifications/100 000 and 11·3 hospitalizations/100 000). Hospitalizations showed higher rates for Māori and Pacific Island populations compared to Europeans, and those living in more deprived areas, whereas notifications showed the reverse, implying that notifications are influenced by health-seeking behaviours. Salmonella Typhimurium was the dominant serotype followed by S. Enteritidis. For a developed country, salmonellosis rates in New Zealand have remained consistently high suggesting more work is needed to investigate, control and prevent this disease.

An outbreak of gastroenteritis affected at least 240 persons who had eaten at a gourmet restaurant over a period of 7 weeks in 2009 in England. Epidemiological, microbiological, and environmental studies were conducted. The case-control study demonstrated increased risk of illness in those who ate from a special ‘tasting menu’ and in particular an oyster, passion fruit jelly and lavender dish (odds ratio 7·0, 95% confidence interval 1·1–45·2). Ten diners and six staff members had laboratory-confirmed norovirus infection. Diners were infected with multiple norovirus strains belonging to genogroups I and II, a pattern characteristic of molluscan shellfish-associated outbreaks. The ongoing risk from dining at the restaurant may have been due to persistent contamination of the oyster supply alone or in combination with further spread via infected food handlers or the restaurant environment. Delayed notification of the outbreak to public health authorities may have contributed to outbreak size and duration.

This study reports on gastroenteritis outbreaks suspected of being norovirus infections in eight long-term care facilities. A descriptive epidemiological investigation was used to depict sources of infections and control measures. Outbreaks affected 299 (31%) of 954 residents and 95 (11%) of 843 staff. Attack rates were higher in residents (range 17–55%) than staff (range 3–35%). Person-to-person spread was suspected. The case-hospitalization rate was 2·5%, and no death occurred. Eight staff members were employed at multiple affected facilities and may have introduced disease into three facilities. Thirty-two stool specimens were positive for norovirus by real-time reverse transcriptase–polymerase chain reaction or enzyme immunoassay. Sequenced specimens were closely related to GII.4 New Orleans. A concurrent Clostridium difficile outbreak was also detected at one facility. Staff members who work at multiple facilities may transmit norovirus between them. Regulatory agencies should consider precluding ill staff from working in multiple facilities during outbreaks. Guidelines to control norovirus must be applied promptly and meticulously by facilities.