Enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli (ETEC) is a common cause of profuse watery diarrhoea in the developing world, often leading to severe dehydration or death. We found only 15 population-based studies in low and medium human development index (HDI) countries from 1984 to 2005 that evaluate disease incidence. Reported incidence ranged from 39 to 4460 infections/1000 persons per year. The peak incidence of ETEC appeared to occur between ages 6 and 18 months. A median of 14% (range 2–36%) of diarrhoeal specimens were positive for ETEC in 19 facility- and population-based studies conducted in all age groups and 13% (range 3–39%) in 51 studies conducted in children only. Heat-labile toxin (LT)-ETEC is thought to be less likely to cause disease than heat-stable toxin (ST)-ETEC or LT/ST-ETEC. Because population-based studies involve enhanced clinical management of patients and facility-based studies include only the most severe illnesses, reliable data on complications and mortality from ETEC infections was unavailable. To reduce gaps in the current understanding of ETEC incidence, complications and mortality, large population-based studies combined with facility-based studies covering a majority of the corresponding population are needed, especially in low-HDI countries. Moreover, a standard molecular definition of ETEC infection is needed to be able to compare results across study sites.

An abattoir survey was undertaken to determine the prevalence of foodborne zoonotic organisms colonizing cattle, sheep and pigs at slaughter in Great Britain. The study ran for 12 months from January 2003, involved 93 abattoirs and collected 7703 intestinal samples. The design was similar to two previous abattoir surveys undertaken in 1999–2000 allowing comparisons. Samples were examined for VTEC O157, Salmonella, thermophilic Campylobacter and Yersinia enterocolitica. The prevalence of VTEC O157 faecal carriage was 4·7% in cattle, 0·7% in sheep and 0·3% in pigs. A significant decrease in sheep was detected from the previous survey (1·7%). Salmonella carriage was 1·4% in cattle, a significant increase from the previous survey of 0·2%. In sheep, faecal carriage was 1·1% a significant increase from the previous survey (0·1%). In pigs, carriage was 23·4%, consistent with the previous study. Thermophilic Campylobacter spp. were isolated from 54·6% of cattle, 43·8% of sheep and 69·3% of pigs. Y. enterocolitica was isolated from 4·5% of cattle, 8·0% of sheep and 10·2% of pigs.

Escherichia coli isolates from human blood (n=266) and faecal (n=237) samples were examined for cytotoxic necrotizing factors 1 and 2 (CNF 1 and 2), cytolethal distending toxin (CDT), and putative virulence factors that have been associated with disease conditions in humans and animals. PCR showed that the chromosomally encoded, Rho-activating, CNF1 (68/544, 12·5%) was more common than the transmissible plasmid-borne CNF2 (3/544, 0·6%). The relative risk of having either CNF or CDT toxin genes in blood compared to faecal isolates was 3·88 (95% CI 2·36–6·38). This was highly significant (P<0·0001) and demonstrates the importance of these factors in bloodstream infections. Fifty-one of 65 (78%) E. coli bearing CNF1 and 11 of 21 (52%) of E. coli bearing CDT also carried the pyelonephritis-associated pilus gene, papG. The S fimbrial adhesin gene, sfa, was found in 57 blood (21%) and eight faecal samples (3%). The F17 fimbrial adhesin gene and afimbrial adhesin gene afa did not occur frequently. Haemolysin (hly) was found in all of the isolates tested. Further studies must be designed to identify the clinical significance of these genes and their role in pathogenesis.

The infectivity of pathogenic microorganisms is a key factor in the transmission of an infectious disease in a susceptible population. Microbial infectivity is generally estimated from dose–response studies in human volunteers. This can only be done with mildly pathogenic organisms. Here a hierarchical Beta-Poisson dose–response model is developed utilizing data from human outbreaks. On the lowest level each outbreak is modelled separately and these are then combined at a second level to produce a group dose–response relation. The distribution of foodborne pathogens often shows strong heterogeneity and this is incorporated by introducing an additional parameter to the dose–response model, accounting for the degree of overdispersion relative to Poisson distribution. It was found that heterogeneity considerably influences the shape of the dose–response relationship and increases uncertainty in predicted risk. This uncertainty is greater than previously reported surrogate and outbreak models using a single level of analysis. Monte Carlo parameter samples (α, β of the Beta-Poisson model) can be readily incorporated in risk assessment models built using tools such as S-plus and @ Risk.

In Belgium, non-typhoidal salmonellosis and campylobacteriosis are the two most frequently reported foodborne illnesses. During 2005, a 71% decrease of Salmonella Enteritidis infections compared with the average annual number cases in the period 2000–2004 was recorded by the Belgian National Reference Centre for Salmonella and Shigella. After the peak of 1999, the total number of salmonellosis cases decreased gradually, with the exception of 2003 when an increase was again recorded due to the rise of isolates belonging to the serotype Enteritidis. PT4, the predominant phage type of serotype Enteriditis over recent years (except in 2003), became the second most prevalent phage type in 2005 after PT21. We present in this paper the epidemiology (incidence and trends) of human salmonellosis in Belgium and assess the role of the vaccination programme in layer flocks on the decline of the incidence of human salmonellosis and foodborne outbreaks due to S. Enteritidis.

Neisseria meningitidis is an important cause of childhood meningitis and septicaemia. Between 1999 and 2005, 133 invasive meningococcal disease (IMD) cases occurred in Jerusalem, 112 (84·2%) of them in children aged 0–14 years. The annual incidence rate in Jerusalem was higher than the national average (2·45±0·6 vs. 1·13±0·16/100 000 population, P=0·002). Most of the children (82·1%) were from low socio-economic Arab and Jewish ultra-orthodox communities; mortality was higher among Arab than Jewish children (1·3 vs. 0·22/100 000 person-years, P=0·004). A cluster of 10 children with severe meningococcal sepsis (three fatalities) emerged in the winter of 2003–2004. Compared to the other 102 cases in 1999–2005 both meningococcaemia (100% vs. 51%, P=0·003) and mortality (30% vs. 6·9%, P=0·014) rates were higher. Serogroup B comprised 77·6% of the bacterial isolates. Pulsed-field gel electrophoresis showed considerable variability among cluster isolates, but significant resemblance in Arab cases throughout 1999–2005. The increased susceptibility of specific sub-populations to IMD necessitates further evaluation.

This study evaluated the first use of a combination of the lyophilized components of the conjugated group C vaccine Menjugate™ reconstituted with the liquid group B outer membrane vesicle (OMV) vaccine MeNZB™. At 6-week intervals, healthy residential students received three doses of MeNZB alone or concomitantly with one dose of Menjugate (MeNZB+MenC). Short-lasting injection-site reactions of mild or moderate intensity were frequent in both groups. There were no vaccine-related serious adverse events. After three doses, the percentage of subjects with serum bactericidal assay (SBA) titres ⩾1:8 against the serogroup B strain NZ98/254 was 82% for MeNZB+MenC and 78% for MeNZB. All subjects in the MeNZB+MenC group achieved SBA titres ⩾1:8 against serogroup strain C11 and 67% in the MeNZB group. All SBA and ELISA responses of the combined vaccine were at least as good as for MeNZB alone. After vaccination, the pharyngeal carriage rate of any meningococcus in the vaccinated group had declined from 40% to 21%.

A rise in invasive Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) infections occurred 8 years after vaccine introduction in the United Kingdom. Aspects of Hib vaccine delivery unique to the United Kingdom have been implicated. The authors developed a fully age-structured deterministic susceptible–infected–resistant–susceptible mathematical model, expressed as a set of partial differential equations, to better understand the causes of declining vaccine effectiveness. We also investigated the consequences of the vaccine's impact on reducing Hib transmission for maintenance of immunity. Our findings emphasized the importance of maintaining high post-immunization antibody titres among age groups at greatest risk of invasive infections. In keeping with UK population-based estimates, low direct efficacy of immunological memory against disease was found, cautioning against over-reliance on evidence of priming alone as a correlate of population protection. The contribution of herd immunity to disease control was reinforced. Possible intervention strategies will be explored in subsequent work.

Empirical data about contact frequencies of children is needed for estimating parameters in mathematical modelling studies that investigate the effect of targeting influenza intervention to children. A survey about the social contacts of school children was conducted in a primary school in Germany. The distribution of the daily numbers of contacts was stratified by age of the contacted person and by weekday. A negative binomial regression analysis was performed to investigate factors that influence contact behaviour. Using logistic regression analysis we examined the relationship between the numbers of private contacts and having been ill in the last 6 months. We computed effective contact numbers to take the heterogeneity in contact behaviour into account in assessing the contribution of children's contacts to the overall transmission of an infection. The possible effects of intervention measures such as school closure and vaccination on the transmission of respiratory-spread agents to other age groups are discussed.

An outbreak of Legionnaire's disease was detected in Pamplona, Spain, on 1 June 2006. Patients with pneumonia were tested to detect Legionella pneumophila antigen in urine (Binax Now; Binax Inc., Scarborough, ME, USA), and all 146 confirmed cases were interviewed. The outbreak was related to district 2 (22 012 inhabitants), where 45% of the cases lived and 50% had visited; 5% lived in neighbouring districts. The highest incidence was found in the resident population of district 2 (3/1000 inhabitants), section 2 (14/1000). All 31 cooling towers of district 2 were analysed. L. pneumophila antigen (Binax Now) was detected in four towers, which were closed on 2 June. Only the strain isolated in a tower situated in section 2 of district 2 matched all five clinical isolates, as assessed by mAb and two genotyping methods, AFLP and PFGE. Eight days after closing the towers, new cases ceased appearing. Early detection and rapid coordinated medical and environmental actions permitted immediate control of the outbreak and probably contributed to the null case fatality.

A flexible hierarchical Bayesian spatiotemporal regression model for foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) was applied to data on the annual number of reported FMD cases in Turkey from 1996 to 2003. The longitudinal component of the model was specified as a latent province-specific stochastic process. This stochastic process can accommodate various types of FMD temporal profiles. The model accounted for differences in FMD occurrence across provinces and for spatial correlation. Province-level covariate information was incorporated into the analysis. Results pointed to a decreasing trend in the number of FMD cases in western Turkey and an increasing trend in eastern Turkey from 1996 to 2003. The model also identified provinces with high and with low propensities for FMD occurrence. The model's use of flexible structures for temporal trend and of generally applicable methods for spatial correlation has broad application to predicting future spatiotemporal distributions of disease in other regions of the world.

Expansion of dengue has been attributed to urbanization. To test this concept, we examined dengue transmission intensities in Thailand. We used the inverse of mean age of dengue haemorrhagic fever (DHF) cases as a surrogate of dengue transmission intensity (or force of infection). The transmission intensity in Bangkok decreased rapidly since the mid-1990s, to levels that are currently lower than in other regions. Regression analysis revealed that transmission intensity is highest in the Northeastern rural region, mainly due to scarcity of private water wells. Private wells reduce the need for household water containers, the major breeding sites for vectors. Cumulatively, these results show that urbanization is not necessarily associated with intense dengue transmission in Thailand. Paradoxically, the DHF incidence in Bangkok has surpassed other regions despite declines in transmission intensity. This finding implies the existence of endemic stability (i.e. low incidence of a clinical illness in spite of high transmission intensity).

Recurrent epidemics of influenza are observed seasonally around the world with considerable health and economic consequences. A key quantity for the control of infectious diseases is the reproduction number, which measures the transmissibility of a pathogen and determines the magnitude of public health interventions necessary to control epidemics. Here we applied a simple epidemic model to weekly indicators of influenza mortality to estimate the reproduction numbers of seasonal influenza epidemics spanning three decades in the United States, France, and Australia. We found similar distributions of reproduction number estimates in the three countries, with mean value 1·3 and important year-to-year variability (range 0·9–2·1). Estimates derived from two different mortality indicators (pneumonia and influenza excess deaths and influenza-specific deaths) were in close agreement for the United States (correlation=0·61, P<0·001) and France (correlation=0·79, P<0·001), but not Australia. Interestingly, high prevalence of A/H3N2 influenza viruses was associated with high transmission seasons (P=0·006), while B viruses were more prevalent in low transmission seasons (P=0·004). The current vaccination strategy targeted at people at highest risk of severe disease outcome is suboptimal because current vaccines are poorly immunogenic in these population groups. Our results suggest that interrupting transmission of seasonal influenza would require a relatively high vaccination coverage (>60%) in healthy individuals who respond well to vaccine, in addition to periodic re-vaccination due to evolving viral antigens and waning population immunity.