It is more than 25 years since the first case of AIDS was reported in the United Kingdom. In December 1981 a gay man was referred to a London hospital with opportunistic infections indicative of immunosuppression. National surveillance began the following year, in September 1982, with the notification of deaths and clinical reports of AIDS and Kaposi's sarcoma plus laboratory reports of opportunistic infections. Since then epidemiological surveillance systems have evolved, adapting to, and taking advantage of advances in treatments and laboratory techniques. The introduction of the HIV antibody test in 1984 led to the reporting of HIV-positive tests by laboratories and the establishment of an unlinked anonymous survey in 1990 measuring undiagnosed HIV infection among gay men attending sexual health clinics. The widespread use of highly active antiretroviral therapies (HAART) since 1996 has averted many deaths among HIV-positive gay men and has also resulted in a large reduction in AIDS cases. This led to a need for an enumeration of gay men with HIV accessing NHS treatment and care services (1995 onwards), more clinical information on HIV diagnoses for epidemiological surveillance (2000 onwards) and the routine monitoring of drug resistance (2001 onwards). Twenty-five years after the first case of AIDS was reported, gay and bisexual men remain the group at greatest risk of acquiring HIV in the United Kingdom. Latest estimates suggest that in 2004, 26 500 gay and bisexual men were living with HIV in the United Kingdom, a quarter of whom were undiagnosed. In this review, we examine how national surveillance systems have evolved over the past 25 years in response to the changing epidemiology of HIV/AIDS among gay and bisexual men in the United Kingdom as well as advances in laboratory techniques and medical treatments. We also reflect on how they will need to continue evolving to effectively inform health policy in the future.

Salmonella Newport causes more than an estimated 100 000 infections annually in the United States. In 2002, tomatoes grown and packed on the eastern shore of Virginia contaminated with a pan-susceptible S. Newport strain caused illness in 510 patients in 26 states. In July–November 2005, the same strain caused illness in at least 72 patients in 16 states. We conducted a case-control study during the 2005 outbreak, enrolling 29 cases and 140 matched neighbourhood controls. Infection was associated with eating tomatoes (matched odds ratio 9·7, 95% confidence interval 3·3–34·9). Tomatoes were traced back to the eastern shore of Virginia, where the outbreak strain was isolated from pond water used to irrigate tomato fields. Two multistate outbreaks caused by one rare strain, and identification of that strain in irrigation ponds 2 years apart, suggest persistent contamination of tomato fields. Further efforts are needed to prevent produce contamination on farms and throughout the food supply chain.

Many countries plan to close schools during a future influenza pandemic, although the potential impact is poorly understood. We apply a model of the transmission dynamics of pandemic influenza to consultation, serological and clinical data from the United Kingdom from the 1957 (Asian) influenza pandemic, to estimate the basic reproduction number (R0), the proportion of infected individuals who experience clinical symptoms and the impact of school/nursery closures. The R0 for Asian influenza was about 1·8 and 60–65% of infected individuals were estimated to have experienced clinical symptoms. During a future pandemic, closure of schools/nurseries could reduce the epidemic size only by a very small amount (<10%) if R0 is high (e.g. 2·5 or 3·5), and modest reductions, e.g. 22% might be possible if it is low (1·8) and schools are closed early, depending on assumptions about contact patterns. Further data on contact patterns and their dependence on school closures are needed.

While oral polio vaccine (OPV) has been shown to be safe and effective, it has been observed that it can circulate within a susceptible population and revert to a virulent form. Inactivated polio vaccine (IPV) confers protection from paralytic disease, but provides limited protection against infection. It is possible, then, that an IPV-immunized population, when exposed to OPV, could sustain undetected circulation of vaccine-derived poliovirus. This study examines the possibility of polio vaccine virus circulating within the United States (highly IPV-immunized) population that borders Mexico (OPV-immunized). A total of 653 stool and 20 sewage samples collected on the US side of the border were tested for the presence of poliovirus. All samples were found to be negative. These results suggest that the risk of circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus is low in fully immunized IPV-using populations in developed countries that border OPV-using populations.

We report the first population-based case-control study on acute hepatitis B in a very low-incidence country. A case was a Netherlands resident, notified between May 1999 and July 2000 with symptoms and serology compatible with acute hepatitis B. Population controls were randomly selected, with oversampling from men and persons aged 20–39 years. Risk factors were studied using logistical regression, distinguishing confounders and mediators through hierarchical analysis. Participants were 120 cases and 3948 controls. The risk of acute hepatitis B was increased in men who have sex with men, with reporting to have had more than two partners in the past 6 months the only significant risk. In children, adult females and heterosexual males, having parents born in a hepatitis B endemic country was a significant risk. For adult females and heterosexual males, this was largely explained by having a foreign partner. For children this was partly explained by parenteral exposures abroad.

Réunion Island (Indian Ocean) has been suffering from its first known Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) epidemic since February 2005. To achieve a better understanding of the disease, a questionnaire was drawn up for hospital staff members and their household. CHIKV infected about one-third of the studied population, the proportion increasing with age and being higher in women. Presence of a garden was associated with CHIKV infection. The geographical distribution of cases was concordant with insect vector Aedes albopictus distribution. The main clinical signs were arthralgia and fever. The disease evolved towards full recovery in 34·4% of cases, a relapse in 55·6%, or a chronic form in 10%. Paracetamol was used as a painkiller in 95% of cases, sometimes associated with non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, corticoids, or traditional herbal medicine. The survey provided valuable information on the factors that favour transmission, the clinical signs, the importance of relapses and the therapies used.

In 2003 and 2004 two measles outbreaks occurred in Jewish ultra-orthodox communities in Jerusalem. The index case of the first outbreak (March 2003) was a 2-year-old unvaccinated child from Switzerland. Within 5 months, 107 cases (mean age 8·3±7·5 years) emerged in three crowded neighbourhoods. The first cases of the second outbreak (June 2004) were in three girls aged 4–5 years in one kindergarten in another community. By November 2004, 117 cases (mean age 7·3±6·5 years) occurred. The virus genotypes were D8 and D4 respectively. Altogether, 96 households accounted for the two outbreaks, with two or more patients per family in 79% of cases. Most cases (91·5%) were unvaccinated. Immunization coverage was lower in outbreak than in non-outbreak neighbourhoods (88·3% vs. 90·3%, P=0·001). Controlling the outbreaks necessitated a culture-sensitive approach, and targeted efforts increased MMR vaccine coverage (first dose) to 95·2%. Despite high national immunization coverage (94–95%), special attention to specific sub-populations is essential.

The aim of the study was to estimate the prevalence and risk factors associated with infection by high-risk human papillomavirus (HR-HPV) in cervix and squamous intra-epithelial lesions (SIL) in imprisoned women. This was done by a cross-sectional study of imprisoned women attending the gynaecological clinic in Foncalent prison in Alicante, Spain. The study period was from May 2003 to December 2005. HR-HPV infection was determined through Digene HPV Test, Hybrid Capture II (HC-II). HPV typing was determined by multiplex nested PCR assay combining degenerate E6/E7 consensus primers. Multiple logistic regression modelling was used for the analysis of associations between variables where some were considered possible confounders after checking for interactions. A total of 219 women were studied. HR-HPV prevalence was 27·4% and prevalence of SIL was 13·3%. HIV prevalence was 18%, higher in Spaniards than in migrant women (24·6% vs. 14·3%, P<0·05). In multivariate analyses, risk factors for HPV infection were younger age (P for trend=0·001) and tobacco use (OR 2·62, 95% CI 1·01–6·73). HPV infection (OR 4·8, 95% CI 1·7–13·8) and HIV infection were associated with SIL (OR 4·8, 95% CI 1·6–14·1). The commonest HPV types were HPV16 (29·4%), HPV18 (17·6%), HPV39 (17·6%) and HPV68 (17·6%). The prevalence of both HR-HPV infection and SIL in imprisoned women found in this study is high. Determinants for each of the outcomes studied were different. HPV infection is the most important determinant for SIL. A strong effect of HIV co-infection on the prevalence of SIL has been detected. Our findings reinforce the need to support gynaecological clinics in the prison setting.

Calls to a UK national telephone health helpline (NHS Direct) have been used for syndromic surveillance, aiming to provide early warning of rises in community morbidity. We investigated whether self-sampling by NHS Direct callers could provide viable samples for influenza culture. We recruited 294 NHS Direct callers and sent them self-sampling kits. Callers were asked to take a swab from each nostril and post them to the laboratory. Forty-two per cent of the samples were returned, 16·2% were positive on PCR for influenza (16 influenza A(H3N2), three influenza A (H1N1), four influenza B) and eight for RSV (5·6%). The mean time between the NHS Direct call and laboratory analysis was 7·4 days. These samples provided amongst the earliest influenza reports of the season, detected multiple influenza strains, and augmented a national syndromic surveillance system. Self-sampling is a feasible method of enhancing community-based surveillance programmes for detection of influenza.

Invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) notifications are used to monitor IPD vaccination programmes. We conducted sequential deterministic data-linkage between IPD notifications and hospitalization data in Victoria, Australia, in order to determine whether all diagnosed cases were being reported. The proportion of each relevant hospital admission ICD-10-AM code that could be linked to notified cases was calculated. Total and age-specific annual rates were calculated and compared for notified and non-notified cases. Total incidence was estimated using data-linkage results and application of a two-source capture–recapture method. The first 2 years of IPD surveillance in Victoria missed at least one-sixth of laboratory-confirmed IPD cases. Estimated annual IPD rate increased from 9·0 to 10·7/100 000 and rose even higher, to 11·5/100 000, with age-specific rates possibly reaching 90·0/100 000 children aged <2 years, when using capture–recapture. Strategies to improve notification and coding of hospitalized cases of IPD are required.

This study examines the validity of using ICD-10 codes to identify hospitalized pneumonia cases. Using a case-cohort design, subjects were randomly selected from monthly cohorts of patients aged ⩾65 years discharged from April 2000 to March 2002 from two large tertiary Australian hospitals. Cases had ICD-10-AM codes J10–J18 (pneumonia); the cohort sample was randomly selected from all discharges, frequency matched to cases by month. Codes were validated against three comparators: medical record notation of pneumonia, chest radiograph (CXR) report and both. Notation of pneumonia was determined for 5098/5101 eligible patients, and CXR reports reviewed for 3349/3464 (97%) patients with a CXR. Coding performed best against notation of pneumonia: kappa 0·95, sensitivity 97·8% (95% CI 97·1–98·3), specificity 96·9% (95% CI 96·2–97·5), positive predictive value (PPV) 96·2% (95% CI 95·4–97·0) and negative predictive value (NPV) 98·2% (95% CI 97·6–98·6). When medical record notation of pneumonia is used as the standard, ICD-10 codes are a valid method for retrospective ascertainment of hospitalized pneumonia cases and appear superior to use of complexes of symptoms and signs, or radiology reports.

Rapid notification of infectious diseases is essential for prompt public health action and for monitoring of these diseases in the Irish population at both a local and national level. Anecdotal evidence suggests, however, that the occurrence of notifiable infectious diseases is seriously underestimated. This study aims to assess the level of hospitalization for notifiable infectious diseases for a 6-year period in one health board region in Ireland and to assess whether or not there was any under-reporting during this period. All hospital in-patient admissions from 1997 to 2002 inclusive with a principal diagnosis relating to ‘infectious and parasitic diseases’ (ICD codes 001–139) of residents from a health board region in Ireland were extracted from the Hospital In-Patient Enquiry System (HIPE). All notifiable infectious diseases were identified based on the 1981 Irish Infectious Disease Regulations and the data were analysed in the statistical package, JMP. These data were compared with the corresponding notification data. Analysis of the hospital in-patient admission data revealed a substantial burden associated with notifiable infectious diseases in this health board region: there were 2758 hospitalizations by 2454 residents, 17 034 bed days and 33 deaths. The statutory notification data comprises both general practitioner and hospital clinician reports of infectious disease. Therefore, only in cases where there are more hospitalizations than notifications can under-reporting be demonstrated. This occurred in nine out of 22 notifiable diseases and amounted to an additional 18% of notifications (or 572 cases) which were ‘missed’ due to hospital clinician under-reporting. The majority of these under-reported cases were for viral meningitis (45%), infectious mononucleosis (27%), viral hepatitis C unspecified (15%) and acute encephalitis (5·8%). This study has highlighted the extent of under-reporting of hospitalized notifiable infectious diseases, in a health board region in Ireland, which is a cause for concern from a surveillance point of view. If this under-reporting is similar in other health boards, then it would appear that the epidemiology of some notifiable diseases is incomplete both regionally and nationally. This under-reporting negatively impacts on the effectiveness of the notification process as a ‘real-time’ surveillance tool and an early warning system for outbreaks.

Under-reporting of infectious gastrointestinal illness (IGI) in British Columbia, Canada was calculated using simulation modelling, accounting for the uncertainty and variability of input parameters. Factors affecting under-reporting were assessed during a cross-sectional randomized telephone survey. For every case of IGI reported to the province, a mean of 347 community cases occurred (5th and 95th percentile estimates ranged from 181 to 611 community cases, respectively). Vomiting [odds ratio (OR) 2·15, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1·03–4·49] and antibiotic use in the previous 28 days (OR 3·59, 95% CI 1·17–10·97) significantly predicted health-care visits in a logistic regression model. In bivariate analyses, physicians were significantly less likely to request stool samples from patients with vomiting (RR 0·09, 95% CI 0·01–0·65) and patients of North American as opposed to non-North American cultural groups (RR 0·38, 95% CI 0·15–0·96). Physicians were more likely to request stool samples from older patients (P=0·003), patients with fewer household members (P=0·002) and those who reported anti-diarrhoeal use following illness (RR 3·33, 95% CI 1·32–8·45). People with symptoms of vomiting were under-represented in provincial communicable disease statistics. Differential degrees of under-reporting must be understood before biased surveillance data can be adjusted.

The incidence of Legionnaires' disease has an uneven geographical distribution in Denmark, ranging from 3 to 70 notified cases per million inhabitants per year in different towns. We investigated the prevalence of antibodies to Legionella in the one town with a consistently high incidence (Randers, Aarhus County) and compared it with that of an area of average incidence (Vejle, Vejle County). Blood samples were collected from healthy blood donors in Randers (n=308) and in Vejle (n=400), and analysed for antibodies to Legionella by indirect immunofluorescence antibody test with L. pneumophila, L. micdadei, and L. bozemanii as antigens. Overall 22·9% of the donors had antibody titres of ⩾1:128; indicating that antibodies to Legionella are common in healthy individuals, and reflecting that the bacteria may be widely distributed in the environment. Surprisingly, the study did not reveal a higher prevalence in the hyperendemic area. Thus, the high incidence of notified cases in this particular town may not be attributed to an overall increased exposure of the general population.

We developed a mathematical model of the transmission dynamics of salmonella to describe an outbreak of S. Cerro infection that occurred in a Pennsylvania dairy herd. The data were collected as part of a cooperative research project between the Regional Dairy Quality Management Alliance and the Agricultural Research Service. After the initial detection of a high prevalence of S. Cerro infection in the herd, a frequent and intensive sampling was conducted and the outbreak was followed for 1 year. The data showed a persistent presence of S. Cerro with a high prevalence of infection in the herd. The dynamics of host and pathogen were modelled using a set of nonlinear differential equations. A more realistically distributed (gamma-distributed) infectious period using multiple stages of infection was considered. The basic reproduction number was calculated and relevance to the intervention strategies is discussed.

Cattle are among the major reservoirs of Cryptosporidium parvum in nature. However, the relative contribution of C. parvum oocysts originating from cattle to human disease burden is difficult to assess, as various transmission pathways – including the human to human route – can co-occur. In this study, multilocus genotype richness of representative samples of human and bovine C. parvum are compared statistically using analytical rarefaction and non-parametric taxonomic richness estimators. Results suggest that in the time and space frames underlying the analysed data, humans were infected with significantly wider spectra of C. parvum genotypes than cattle, and consequently, a significant fraction of human infections may not have originated from the regional bovine reservoirs. This study provides statistical support to the emerging idea of the existence of distinct anthroponotic C. parvum cycles that do not involve cattle.

Serological responses to Cryptosporidium-specific antigens (15/17 and 27 kDa) were compared among populations in four areas of the Czech Republic that use drinking water from clearly defined sources: (1) wells in a fractured sandstone aquifer, (2) riverbank infiltration, or (3) two different filtered and chlorinated surface waters. Among persons surveyed in the area with riverbank-infiltration water, 33% had a strong serological response to the 15/17-kDa antigen group whereas, in the other three areas, over 72% of persons had a strong response. These response differences suggest that Cryptosporidium exposures and infection were lower in the area with bank infiltration. The large percentage of the study population with a strong serological response to both antigens suggests high levels of previous infections that may have resulted in protective immunity for cryptosporidiosis. This may be one reason why no waterborne cryptosporidiosis outbreaks and few cases of cryptosporidiosis have been reported in the Czech Republic.