Complex machine learning architectures and high-dimensional gridded input data are increasingly used to develop high-performance geoscience models, but model complexity obfuscates their decision-making strategies. Understanding the learned patterns is useful for model improvement or scientific investigation, motivating research in eXplainable artificial intelligence (XAI) methods. XAI methods often struggle to produce meaningful explanations of correlated features. Gridded geospatial data tends to have extensive autocorrelation so it is difficult to obtain meaningful explanations of geoscience models. A recommendation is to group correlated features and explain those groups. This is becoming common when using XAI to explain tabular data. Here, we demonstrate that XAI algorithms are highly sensitive to the choice of how we group raster elements. We demonstrate that reliance on a single partition scheme yields misleading explanations. We propose comparing explanations from multiple grouping schemes to extract more accurate insights from XAI. We argue that each grouping scheme probes the model in a different way so that each asks a different question of the model. By analyzing where the explanations agree and disagree, we can learn information about the scale of the learned features. FogNet, a complex three-dimensional convolutional neural network for coastal fog prediction, is used as a case study for investigating the influence of feature grouping schemes on XAI. Our results demonstrate that careful consideration of how each grouping scheme probes the model is key to extracting insights and avoiding misleading interpretations.

Cyclones are a severe storm system with a defined center, occurring in the tropical regions. Upon landfall, it causes massive damage to both lives and the economy. With the increase in frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones occurring over the years and growing coastal settlements, the study of cyclone landfall remains of paramount importance for disaster control and mitigation. Cyclones experience rapid changes, with various environmental factors modulating the trajectory and intensity. Thus predicting cyclone landfall demands a highly precise technique coupled with knowledge of environmental parameters. With the complexity and nonlinearity of the cyclone track data, determining parameters conducive for the landfall prediction of a cyclone remains crucial for precision and knowledge of the storm system. While numerous methods have been employed for detecting causal interactions among weather systems like Granger Causality and Transfer Entropy, each comes with its limitation and computational overhead. In this work, we investigate the where and when of a cyclone landfall by studying the influencing factors regulating the location and time of a cyclone landfall over the North Indian Ocean with mutual information (MI). We utilize dilated recurrent neural network with gated recurrent unit cells coupled with feature selection via MI criterion for predicting the cyclone landfall location and intensity between 12 and 36 training hours. The model efficacy is validated further on the landfall data of a recent devastating storm—Fani.

The growing need for agricultural products and the challenges posed by environmental and economic factors have created a demand for enhanced agricultural systems management. Machine learning has increasingly been leveraged to tackle agricultural optimization problems, and in particular, reinforcement learning (RL), a subfield of machine learning, seems a promising tool for data-driven discovery of future farm management policies. In this work, we present the development of CropGym, a Gymnasium environment, where a reinforcement learning agent can learn crop management policies using a variety of process-based crop growth models. As a use case, we report on the discovery of strategies for nitrogen application in winter wheat. An RL agent is trained to decide weekly on applying a discrete amount of nitrogen fertilizer, with the aim of achieving a balance between maximizing yield and minimizing environmental impact. Results show that close to optimal strategies are learned, competitive with standard practices set by domain experts. In addition, we evaluate, as an out-of-distribution test, whether the obtained policies are resilient against a change in climate conditions. We find that, when rainfall is sufficient, the RL agent remains close to the optimal policy. With CropGym, we aim to facilitate collaboration between the RL and agronomy communities to address the challenges of future agricultural decision-making.

Wind energy’s ability to liberate the world from conventional sources of energy relies on lowering the significant costs associated with the maintenance of wind turbines. Since icing events on turbine rotor blades are a leading cause of operational failures, identifying icing in advance is critical. Some recent studies have utilized deep learning (DL) techniques to predict icing events with high accuracy by leveraging rotor blade images, but these studies only focus on specific wind parks and fail to generalize to unseen scenarios (e.g., new rotor blade designs). In this paper, we aim to facilitate ice prediction on the face of lack of ice images in new wind parks. We propose the utilization of synthetic data augmentation via a generative artificial intelligence technique—the neural style transfer algorithm to improve the generalization of existing ice prediction models. We also compare the proposed technique with the CycleGAN as a baseline. We show that training standalone DL models with augmented data that captures domain-invariant icing characteristics can help improve predictive performance across multiple wind parks. Through efficient identification of icing, this study can support preventive maintenance of wind energy sources by making them more reliable toward tackling climate change.

Measuring and attributing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions remains a challenging problem as the world strives toward meeting emissions reductions targets. As a significant portion of total global emissions, the road transportation sector represents an enormous challenge for estimating and tracking emissions at a global scale. To meet this challenge, we have developed a hybrid approach for estimating road transportation emissions that combines the strengths of machine learning and satellite imagery with localized emissions factors data to create an accurate, globally scalable, and easily configurable GHG monitoring framework.

Understanding the meteorological drivers of extreme impacts in social or environmental systems is important to better quantify current and project future climate risks. Impacts are typically an aggregated response to many different interacting drivers at various temporal scales, rendering such driver identification a challenging task. Machine learning–based approaches, such as deep neural networks, may be able to address this task but require large training datasets. Here, we explore the ability of Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) to predict years with extremely low gross primary production (GPP) from daily weather data in three different vegetation types. To circumvent data limitations in observations, we simulate 100,000 years of daily weather with a weather generator for three different geographical sites and subsequently simulate vegetation dynamics with a complex vegetation model. For each resulting vegetation distribution, we then train two different CNNs to classify daily weather data (temperature, precipitation, and radiation) into years with extremely low GPP and normal years. Overall, prediction accuracy is very good if the monthly or yearly GPP values are used as an intermediate training target (area under the precision-recall curve AUC $ \ge $ 0.9). The best prediction accuracy is found in tropical forests, with temperate grasslands and boreal forests leading to comparable results. Prediction accuracy is strongly reduced when binary classification is used directly. Furthermore, using daily GPP during training does not improve the predictive power. We conclude that CNNs are able to predict extreme impacts from complex meteorological drivers if sufficient data are available.

Climate models are primary tools for investigating processes in the climate system, projecting future changes, and informing decision makers. The latest generation of models provides increasingly complex and realistic representations of the real climate system, while there is also growing awareness that not all models produce equally plausible or independent simulations. Therefore, many recent studies have investigated how models differ from observed climate and how model dependence affects model output similarity, typically drawing on climatological averages over several decades. Here, we show that temperature maps of individual days drawn from datasets never used in training can be robustly identified as “model” or “observation” using the CMIP6 model archive and four observational products. An important exception is a prototype storm-resolving simulation from ICON-Sapphire which cannot be unambiguously assigned to either category. These results highlight that persistent differences between simulated and observed climate emerge at short timescales already, but very high-resolution modeling efforts may be able to overcome some of these shortcomings. Moreover, temporally out-of-sample test days can be assigned their dataset name with up to 83% accuracy. Misclassifications occur mostly between models developed at the same institution, suggesting that effects of shared code, previously documented only for climatological timescales, already emerge at the level of individual days. Our results thus demonstrate that the use of machine learning classifiers, once trained, can overcome the need for several decades of data to evaluate a given model. This opens up new avenues to test model performance and independence on much shorter timescales.

Ocean wave climate has a significant impact on near-shore and off-shore human activities, and its characterization can help in the design of ocean structures such as wave energy converters and sea dikes. Therefore, engineers need long time series of ocean wave parameters. Numerical models are a valuable source of ocean wave data; however, they are computationally expensive. Consequently, statistical and data-driven approaches have gained increasing interest in recent decades. This work investigates the spatiotemporal relationship between North Atlantic wind and significant wave height ($ {H}_s $) at an off-shore location in the Bay of Biscay, using a two-stage deep learning model. The first step uses convolutional neural networks to extract the spatial features that contribute to $ {H}_s $. Then, long short-term memory is used to learn the long-term temporal dependencies between wind and waves.

Climate trends and weather indicators are used in several research fields due to their importance in statistical modeling, frequently used as covariates. Usually, climate indicators are available as grid files with different spatial and time resolutions. The availability of a time series of climate indicators compatible with administrative boundaries is scattered in Brazil, not fully available for several years, and produced with diverse methodologies. In this paper, we propose time series of climate indicators for the Brazilian municipalities produced using zonal statistics derived from the ERA5-Land reanalysis indicators. As a result, we present datasets with zonal statistics of climate indicators with daily data, covering the period from 1950 to 2022.

Artificial intelligence has provided many breakthroughs in the field of computer vision. The fully convolutional networks U-Net in particular have provided very promising results in the problem of retrieving rain rates from space-borne observations, a challenge that has persisted over the past few decades. The rain intensity is estimated from the measurement of the brightness temperatures on different microwave channels. However, these channels are slightly different depending on the satellite. In the case where a retrieval model has been developed from a single satellite, it may be advantageous to use domain adaptation methods in order to make this model compatible with all the satellites of the constellation. In this proposed feasibility study, a Cycle Generative Adversarial Nets model is used for adapting one set of brightness temperature channels to another set. Results of a toy experiment show that this method is able to provide qualitatively good precipitation structure but still could be improved in terms of precision.

This study aimed to identify and understand the major topics of discussion under the #sustainability hashtag on Twitter (now known as “X”) and understand user engagement. The sharp increase in social media usage combined with a rise in climate anomalies in recent years makes the area of sustainability with respect to social media a critical topic. Python was used to gather Twitter posts between January 1, 2023, and March 1, 2023. User engagement metrics were analyzed using a variety of statistical analysis methods, including keyword-frequency analysis and Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA), which were used to identify significant topics of discussion under the #sustainability hashtag. Additionally, histograms and scatter plots were used to visualize user engagement. LDA analysis was conducted with 7 topics after trials were run with various topics and results were analyzed to determine which number of topics best fit the dataset. The frequency analysis provided a basic overview of the discourse surrounding #sustainability with the topics of technology, business and industry, environmental awareness, and discussion of the future. The LDA model provided a more comprehensive view, including additional topics such as Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) and infrastructure, investing, collaboration, and education. These findings have implications for researchers, businesses, organizations, and politicians seeking to align their strategies and actions with the major topics surrounding sustainability on Twitter to have a greater impact on their audience. Researchers can use the results of this study to guide further research on the topic or contextualize their study with existing literature within the field of sustainability.

A simple method for adding uncertainty to neural network regression tasks in earth science via estimation of a general probability distribution is described. Specifically, we highlight the sinh-arcsinh-normal distributions as particularly well suited for neural network uncertainty estimation. The methodology supports estimation of heteroscedastic, asymmetric uncertainties by a simple modification of the network output and loss function. Method performance is demonstrated by predicting tropical cyclone intensity forecast uncertainty and by comparing two other common methods for neural network uncertainty quantification (i.e., Bayesian neural networks and Monte Carlo dropout). The simple approach described here is intuitive and applicable when no prior exists and one just wishes to parameterize the output and its uncertainty according to some previously defined family of distributions. The authors believe it will become a powerful, go-to method moving forward.

Exposure to ground-level ozone is a concern for both humans and vegetation, so accurate prediction of ozone time series is of great importance. However, conventional as well as emerging methods have deficiencies in predicting time series when a superposition of differently pronounced oscillations on various time scales is present. In this paper, we propose a meteorologically motivated filtering method of time series data, which can separate oscillation patterns, in combination with different multibranch neural networks. To avoid phase shifts introduced by using a causal filter, we combine past observation data with a climatological estimate about the future to be able to apply a noncausal filter in a forecast setting. In addition, the forecast in the form of the expected climatology provides some a priori information that can support the neural network to focus not merely on learning a climatological statistic. We apply this method to hourly data obtained from over 50 different monitoring stations in northern Germany situated in rural or suburban surroundings to generate a prediction for the daily maximum 8-hr average values of ground-level ozone 4 days into the future. The data preprocessing with time filters enables simpler neural networks such as fully connected networks as well as more sophisticated approaches such as convolutional and recurrent neural networks to better recognize long-term and short-term oscillation patterns like the seasonal cycle and thus leads to an improvement in the forecast skill, especially for a lead time of more than 48 hr, compared to persistence, climatological reference, and other reference models.

Studies agree on a significant global mean sea level rise in the 20th century and its recent 21st century acceleration in the satellite record. At regional scale, the evolution of sea level probability distributions is often assumed to be dominated by changes in the mean. However, a quantification of changes in distributional shapes in a changing climate is currently missing. To this end, we propose a novel framework quantifying significant changes in probability distributions from time series data. The framework first quantifies linear trends in quantiles through quantile regression. Quantile slopes are then projected onto a set of four orthogonal polynomials quantifying how such changes can be explained by independent shifts in the first four statistical moments. The framework proposed is theoretically founded, general, and can be applied to any climate observable with close-to-linear changes in distributions. We focus on observations and a coupled climate model (GFDL-CM4). In the historical period, trends in coastal daily sea level have been driven mainly by changes in the mean and can therefore be explained by a shift of the distribution with no change in shape. In the modeled world, robust changes in higher order moments emerge with increasing $ {\mathrm{CO}}_2 $ concentration. Such changes are driven in part by ocean circulation alone and get amplified by sea level pressure fluctuations, with possible consequences for sea level extremes attribution studies.

There has been much recent interest in developing data-driven models for weather and climate predictions. However, there are open questions regarding their generalizability and robustness, highlighting a need to better understand how they make their predictions. In particular, it is important to understand whether data-driven models learn the underlying physics of the system against which they are trained, or simply identify statistical patterns without any clear link to the underlying physics. In this paper, we describe a sensitivity analysis of a regression-based model of ocean temperature, trained against simulations from a 3D ocean model setup in a very simple configuration. We show that the regressor heavily bases its forecasts on, and is dependent on, variables known to be key to the physics such as currents and density. By contrast, the regressor does not make heavy use of inputs such as location, which have limited direct physical impacts. The model requires nonlinear interactions between inputs in order to show any meaningful skill—in line with the highly nonlinear dynamics of the ocean. Further analysis interprets the ways certain variables are used by the regression model. We see that information about the vertical profile of the water column reduces errors in regions of convective activity, and information about the currents reduces errors in regions dominated by advective processes. Our results demonstrate that even a simple regression model is capable of learning much of the physics of the system being modeled. We expect that a similar sensitivity analysis could be usefully applied to more complex ocean configurations.

Canopy habitats challenge researchers with their intrinsically difficult access. The current scarcity of climatic data from forest canopies limits our understanding of the conditions and environmental variability of these diverse and dynamic habitats. We present 307 days of climate records collected between 2019 and 2020 in the tropical rainforest canopy of the Yasuní National Park, Ecuador. We monitored climate with a 10-min temporal resolution in the middle crowns of eight canopy trees. The distance between canopy climate stations ranged from 700 m to 10 km. Apart from air temperature, relative humidity, leaf wetness, and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), measured in each canopy climate station, global radiation, rainfall, and wind speed were measured in different subsets of them. We processed the eight data series to omit erroneous records resulting from sensor failures or lack of the solar-based power supply. In addition to the eight original data series, we present three derived data series, two aggregating canopy climate for valleys or for ridges (from four stations each), and one overall average (from the eight stations). This last derived data series contains 306 days, while the shortest of the original data series covers 22 days and the longest 296 days. In addition to the data, two open-source tools, developed in RStudio, are presented that facilitate data visualization (a dashboard) and data exploration (a filtering app) of the original and aggregated records.

We present a data-driven emulator, a stochastic weather generator (SWG), suitable for estimating probabilities of prolonged heat waves in France and Scandinavia. This emulator is based on the method of analogs of circulation to which we add temperature and soil moisture as predictor fields. We train the emulator on an intermediate complexity climate model run and show that it is capable of predicting conditional probabilities (forecasting) of heat waves out of sample. Special attention is payed that this prediction is evaluated using a proper score appropriate for rare events. To accelerate the computation of analogs, dimensionality reduction techniques are applied and the performance is evaluated. The probabilistic prediction achieved with SWG is compared with the one achieved with a convolutional neural network (CNN). With the availability of hundreds of years of training data, CNNs perform better at the task of probabilistic prediction. In addition, we show that the SWG emulator trained on 80 years of data is capable of estimating extreme return times of order of thousands of years for heat waves longer than several days more precisely than the fit based on generalized extreme value distribution. Finally, the quality of its synthetic extreme teleconnection patterns obtained with SWG is studied. We showcase two examples of such synthetic teleconnection patterns for heat waves in France and Scandinavia that compare favorably to the very long climate model control run.

This paper proposes an approach to diagnosing the skill of a machine-learning prediction model based on finding combinations of variables that minimize the normalized mean square error of the predictions. This technique is attractive because it compresses the positive skill of a forecast model into the smallest number of components. The resulting components can then be analyzed much like principal components, including the construction of regression maps for investigating sources of skill. The technique is illustrated with a machine-learning model of week 3–4 predictions of western US wintertime surface temperatures. The technique reveals at least two patterns of large-scale temperature variations that are skillfully predicted. The predictability of these patterns is generally consistent between climate model simulations and observations. The predictability is determined largely by sea surface temperature variations in the Pacific, particularly the region associated with the El Nino-Southern Oscillation. This result is not surprising, but the fact that it emerges naturally from the technique demonstrates that the technique can be helpful in “explaining” the source of predictability in machine-learning models.

Estimates of global and national emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) are important for scientific understanding and public policy on global climate change. Estimates published annually often see revisions of estimates from previous years. Revisions of data on CO2 emissions reflect revisions of the energy data from which CO2 emissions are estimated. Learning is taking place as missing values are compiled, estimated values are revised, and data management systems are updated. Revisions are a frequent feature of the database. Revisions are widespread among countries, commodities, and transactions. We have examined 11 annual reports of the United Nations Energy Statistics Database (those published from 2010 to 2020) to see in the detailed statistics what values are being changed and what are the magnitudes and patterns of change. They are most common in recent years, among developed countries, and among data on liquid fuels. Revisions are generally small and there are no indications of systematic manipulation or bias. Revisions of specific numbers are believed to represent improvements in accuracy but lack of revisions does not point toward accuracy. This examination of revisions does not permit by itself a quantitative estimate of the data uncertainty but it does suggest that the estimates of global and national totals of CO2 emissions are generally consistent and that both absolute values and trends are reliable over time and sufficiently accurate for scientific understanding and public policy.

Predicting reservoir storage capacities is an important planning activity for effective conservation and water release practices. Weather events such as drought and precipitation impact water storage capacities in reservoirs. Predictive insights on reservoir storage levels are beneficial for water planners and stakeholders in effective water resource management. A deep learning (DL) neural network (NN) based reservoir storage prediction approach is proposed that learns from climate, hydrological, and storage information within the reservoir’s associated watershed. These DL models are trained and evaluated for 17 reservoirs in Texas, USA. Using the trained models, reservoir storage predictions were validated with a test data set spanning 2 years. The reported results show promise for longer-term water planning decisions.