Statistical analyses are carried out, of the annual mean surface air temperature at occupied stations and automatic weather stations in the Antarctic and Southern and Pacific Oceans. The data are studied in four groupings: coastal Antarctica (excluding the Antarctic Peninsula), inland Antarctica, the Antarctic Peninsula and the Southern Ocean/Pacific Ocean islands. We find that within each of these four groupings the average trend indicates warming. For coastal Antarctica the trend is ∼0.8°C(100 a)–1. Inland, the results are less clear, but the mean trend is to a warming of ∼1.0°C(100 a)–1. For the Peninsula stations it is ∼4.4°C(100 a)–1, and for the ocean stations the average trend is ∼0.8°C(100 a)–1. The results indicate a reduction in the warming trend since our last analysis 6 years ago. While the Pinatubo (Philippines) volcanic eruption may have had some influence on this reduction in the warming rate, examination of the interannual variations in the temperature record shows variability has continued high since the recovery from any such effect. There has been a further period of cooler temperatures in coastal and inland Antarctica in that time, yet a warmer period in the Peninsula and ocean islands.

Mass balance observations on Urumqi River No. 1 Glacier and Tuyuksu Glacier in Tianshan show a large deficit during the 1980s as compared to the decades before. The Qinghai Lake in northeastern Qinghai-Xizang (Tibet) Plateau and the Issyk-kul Lake in Soviet Tianshan have been continuously shrinking during the past few centuries. Since the maximum of the Little Ice Age which occurred mainly in the 18th century, glaciers have decreased in area by about 44% in the Urumqi valley. These data and other evidence from glaciers, lakes, etc. clearly indicate that the climatic warming and drying tendency grows stronger in this century and will possibly persist to the early decades of the next century. The growing greenhouse effect due to the increase of CO2 and other related gases will enhance this tendency in the near future. However, should the high temperature period of the early and middle Holocene reappear, the climate would become humid.

A simple computer scheme developed by Budd and Smith (1985) and modified by D. Jenssen has been further developed to provide a rapid computation of steady-state balance fluxes over arbitrary ice masses, given the surface elevations and net accumulation distribution. The scheme provides a powerful diagnostic tool to examine the flux and state of balance over whole ice masses or limited regions to interpret field observations for dynamics or the state of balance.

In many cases the uncertainty in the state of balance may be much less than the uncertainty in the deformation and sliding properties of the ice and so the flux and velocities derived from balance could provide a useful guide for the dynamics where direct observations are sparse.

The scheme assumes that, on a horizontal scale of many ice thicknesses, the ice-flow direction is approximately down the steepest surface slope. The continuity equation is used to compute steady-state implied downslope fluxes at each grid point from integrations of the net accumulation over the area from the summits to the edges. The algorithm ensures the exact integral balance of the surface net flux over the area with flow through boundaries.

Applications are demonstrated for the whole of Antarctica and for regional areas. Comparisons are made between fluxes computed from observed ice thicknesses and velocities and those computed from balance. The observed ice thicknesses can also be used to compute surface velocities from assumed column-to-surface velocity ratios. The combined fluxes from observations and balance can be used to compute rates of change of elevation with time.

A high-resolution, three-dimensional thermomechanical ice-sheet model, which includes isostasy, the possibility of ice-sheet expansion on the continental shelf and refined climatic parameterizations, was used to investigate the basal thermal regime of the Greenland ice sheet. The thermodynamic calculations take into account the usual terms of heat flow within the ice, a thermally active bedrock layer and all of the effects associated with changes in ice thickness and flow pattern. Basal temperature conditions are documented with respect to glacial–interracial shifts in climatic boundary conditions, both in steady state as during simulations over the last two glacial cycles using the GRIP δ180 record. It is found that the basal temperature field shows a large sensitivity in steady-state experiments but that, during a glacial cycle, basal temperature variations are strongly damped, in particular in central areas. A comparison has been made with measured data from deep ice cores and the implications are discussed.

Sea-ice thickness and roughness data collected on three cruises in the Ross Sea, Antarctica, showed interseasonal, regional and interannual variability. Variability was reduced to season, or age of ice floe, when sea-ice roughness values from around Antarctica were compared. There were statistically significant correlations between mean snow elevation and mean ice thickness; snow surface roughness and mean ice thickness; and snow surface roughness and ice bottom roughness, which appeared to be independent of season, geographical location and deformation history of ice floes. Our field data indicate that ice thickness can be predicted from snow elevation measurements with higher accuracy in summer. The feasibility of using snow surface roughness to infer ice thickness and ice bottom roughness is promising, and can provide us with a means to study the thickness and underside of Antarctic sea ice at good spatial and temporal resolution.

Ice-core records are a key resource for reconstructing Antarctic climate. However, a number of physical processes preclude the simple interpretation of ice-core properties such as oxygen isotopic ratios in terms of climate variables like temperature or sea-level pressure. We show that well-dated, sub-annually resolved stable-isotopic records from the United States International Trans-Antarctic Scientific Expedition (US-ITASE) traverses and other sources have a high correlation with local seasonal temperature variation. However, this temporal relationship cannot be simply extended to quantitative interannual resolution reconstructions of site temperature. We suggest that a consistent and important target for ice-core calibrations is a composite of annual mean temperature records from Antarctic weather stations, which covaries strongly with the dominant mode (from principal component analysis) of temperature variability in the Antarctic. Significant correlations with this temperature index are found with individual ice-core records, with a composite of the ice cores, and through a multiple linear regression model with the ice cores as predictors. These results imply that isotopic signals, like the instrumental temperature mode itself, have a strong response to large-scale atmospheric circulation variability, which in the Antarctic region is dominated by the Southern Annular Mode.

Sea-ice melting processes were inferred from in situ sea-ice and ocean condition data obtained in the Arctic in summer 2006 and 2007. the relationship between ice concentration observed by on-board ice watches and water temperature showed negative correlations. This implies that as ice concentration decreases, the upper ocean becomes warmer due to greater absorption of solar radiation into open water, which promotes ice melting. However, heating of surface water is significant even in regions that were almost completely ice-covered, suggesting that transmitted solar radiation through the ice is also effective at melting sea ice. A simplified ice–upper-ocean coupled model was applied to examine the effect of heat input from open water, thick ice and thin ice. the ponded thin ice is estimated to transmit approximately three times more solar radiation than ponded thick ice. Model results suggest that transmission of solar radiation through ponded ice amplified the ice-albedo feedback mechanism, particularly in thin ice regions. Recently, the extent of old and thick multi-year ice in the Arctic Ocean has been rapidly reduced. As a result, heat input to the upper ocean through the ice is enhanced and ice melt is further accelerated.

Samples collected from four snow pits at Eclipse Icefield, Yukon, Canada, were analyzed for stable isotopes and major ions to assess seasonal and spatial variability in snow chemistry. Accumulation since the end of the 2001 summer season over the 0.1 km2 area sampled ranges from 0.77 to 1.16mw.e. Snow-pit stratigraphy and chemical records demonstrate that the low accumulation at pit 3 is due to an under-representation of winter snow accumulation at that site. For all major-ion species, chemical concentrations are independent of snow accumulation rate. Seasonal variations are evident in the major-ion records and can be divided between sea-salt species (Na+, Cl−) that peak in late fall to winter, and dust (Ca2+, Mg2+, K+) and other species (NH4+, NO3−, SO42–, C2O22–) that peak in late spring to summer. The signal common to all four snow pits identified by empirical orthogonal function analysis ranges from 49% of the total variance for Na+ and Cl− to as high as 80% of the total variance for SO42–. There is greater spatial variability in species associated with coarse-mode particles (Na+, Cl−, Ca2+, Mg2+) than in species present mainly in accumulation-mode aerosols (SO42–, NH4+) or in the gas phase (NO3−).

A three-dimensional thermomechanically coupled ice-sheet model including calculation of the first-order stress gradients is developed to perform numerical studies on the effects of stress components neglected in the zeroth-order shallow-ice approximation. Steady-state solutions are obtained with both a shallow-ice and a first-order ice-sheet model for several idealistic, radially symmetric ice-sheet configurations. The results show that the effects of the normal deviatoric-stress gradients on ice thickness are generally small, but the influence on basal temperatures and age profiles at an ice divide is significant.

In response to the ‘oldest ice’ challenge initiated by the International Partnerships in Ice Core Sciences (IPICS), new rapid-access drilling technologies through glacier ice need to be developed. These will provide the information needed to qualify potential sites on the Antarctic ice sheet where the deepest section could include ice that is >1Ma old and still in good stratigraphic order. Identifying a suitable site will be a prerequisite for deploying a multi-year deep ice-core drilling operation to elucidate the cause and mechanisms of the mid-Pleistocene transition from 40 ka glacial–interglacial cycles to 100 ka cycles. As part of the ICE&LASERS/SUBGLACIOR projects, we have designed an innovative probe, SUBGLACIOR, with the aim of perforating the ice sheet down to the bedrock in a single season and continuously measuring in situ the isotopic composition of the melted water and the methane concentration in trapped gases. Here we present the general concept of the probe, as well as the various technological solutions that we have favored so far to reach this goal.

Sensible-heat flux is obviously important for glacier ablation but is difficult to measure routinely. Sensible-heat flux can be estimated from wind-speed and temperature data using a dimensionless heat-transfer coefficient. Values of the heat-transfer coefficient are evaluated for six sites by correlating measured melt energy with a wind–temperature variable (product of daily mean wind speed, temperature and mean atmospheric pressure for the altitude in question). Data are available for short periods from two sites in Arctic Canada and two sites in North Greenland, and for hundreds of days of record at Nordbogletscher and Qamanârssûp sermia in South and West Greenland, respectively. Average transfer coefficients for four out of the six sites are close to 0.003, which is in reasonable agreement with values reported elsewhere, while larger values of 0.0047 and 0.0057 are found at the other two sites. Heat-transfer coefficients are also estimated on a monthly basis for the two long records, and substantial variations are found, suggesting that the method should not be used for <20–30 days of data. The present study is based on manually observed ablation and climate data, but the approach could be updated to use data from automatic recording stations using modern sensors.

Bakaninbreen, a 17 km long glacier terminating in fjord waters in central Spitsbergen (77°45′ N, 17°20′E), began to surge between the springs of 1985 and 1986. By summer 1994 the surge front had reached a position 3 km from the terminus and had almost ceased propagation. Structural investigations were undertaken to characterise the tectonic evolution of this thermally complex surge-type glacier, and the role played by thrusting and its effect on debris entrainment. Much of the glacier surface, particularly within and below the surge front, displayed transverse high-angle thrusts, defined by discrete fractures bounded by coarse clear ice. Some fractures were associated with a film of mud, whereas in others a discrete laver of diamicton, with interstitial ice several decimetres thick, was evident. Within the surge front, and genetically related to the thrusts, was a number of shear zones several metres wide. These were defined by fine-grained ice that was the product of the grinding up of crystals during shear (mylonitization). Three main sedimentary facies are associated with the thrusts: mud, gravelly mud and clast-rich muddy diamicton. The diamicton has the character of basal glacial debris: grain-size distribution ranging from clay to cobble size, clasts with a predominance in the sub-angular and sub-rounded classes, and striated and faceted clasts. Hot-water drilling through the glacier revealed several englacial layers above the surge front, and debris brought up on the drill stem suggests a basal origin. At least some of these englacial layers are probably the sub-surface continuations of the thrusts. The observed facies indicate that the glacier is moving over a soft, deformable bed and that thrusting is an important process in transferring debris to the surface, especially when the surge front is propagating down-glacier.

Cyanobacterial communities on a glacier in the Qilian Shan, western China, were investigated using microscopic as well as 16S rRNA and internal transcribed spacer gene analyses. Microscopy revealed that there were abundant cyanobacteria on the entire glacier surface and their community consisted mainly of three morphological types. Low-cycle 16S rRNA gene sequences from six clone libraries were grouped into a total of eight cyanobacterial operational taxonomic units (OTUs), defined as 16S rRNA sequences with similarity of 99%. Although the cyanobacterial community based on morphological types displayed no significant differences among the study sites on the glacier, the community based on OTU groups varied among sites. This inconsistency may be due to simple morphology which might hide a large genetic variability. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that the OTU groups included the orders Oscillatoriales, Chroococcales and unclassified, and the majority of OTUs were Oscillatoriales. From the source environments of the cyanobacterial 16S rRNA gene sequences of each OTU on the glacier estimated by BLAST search (>97% similarity), 39.9% were from soil, 38.2% from fresh water and 1.7% from snow and ice environments. Based on geographical records in the database, all cyanobacterial OTUs were matched to those recorded from the Arctic and Antarctica. The results suggest that the cyanobacterial communities on the glacier are common in cold regions of the world and are likely not to be specialized members of the snow and ice biota but also inhabitants of soil and freshwater environments.

An automated method is presented for tracing layers in radio echograms. The method is designed to work with most radio-echo sounding echograms and has been successfully tested with a 180–210 MHz multichannel coherent depth sounder. To accurately trace layers, first approximate layer positions are calculated by integrating the local layer slope which is inferred by the intensity response to a slanted filter, then the positions are refined using an iterative optimization. The layers are traced using an active contour model or snake, which can be constrained to conserve both echogram features and smooth layers. With this technique it is possible to trace internal layers over distances of several hundred kilometers. The method was tested between two Greenland deep ice cores where the age–depth relation is known.

As part of ongoing work to obtain a reliable estimate of the total ice volume of Svalbard glaciers and their potential contribution to sea-level rise, we present here volume calculations, with detailed error estimates, for ten glaciers on western Nordenskiöld Land, central Spitsbergen, Svalbard. The volume estimates are based upon a dense net of GPR-retrieved ice thickness data collected over several field campaigns spanning the period 1999-2012. The total area and volume of the ensemble are 116.06 ± 4.53 km2 and 10.439 ±0.373 km3, respectively, while the individual areas, volumes and average ice thickness lie within 2.6-50.4 km2, 0.08-5.54 km3 and 29-108 m, respectively. Volume/area scaling relationships overestimate the total volume of these glaciers by up to 35% with respect to our calculation. On the basis of the pattern of scattering in the radargrams, we also analyse the hydrothermal structure of these glaciers. Nine of the ten are polythermal, while only one is entirely cold.

We investigated glacier changes in the Karatal river basin, the largest basin in Zhetysu (Dzhungar) Alatau, Kazakhstan, for the periods 1956–89, 1989–2001 and 2001–12, based on Landsat TM/ETM+ data analysis. In 1989, we found 243 glaciers with a total area of 142.8 km2; by 2012 these had shrunk to 214 glaciers with a total area of 109.3 km2, a decrease of 33.5 km2 over 23 years (1.02%a-1). This very high shrinkage rate is likely connected with a general trend of increasing temperatures, and small glaciers being situated at the relatively low altitude of the outer Zhetysu Alatau ranges. We also analyzed the shrinkage rate of glaciers based on their differences in size, altitude and aspect of slopes, as well as other topographic parameters, in four sub-basins where glacier shrinkage varied between 18% and 39%. Weather-station climate data showed a significant temperature increase and stable precipitation trends over the study period. We conclude that glacierized areas of the Karatal river basin are located in the most unfavorable conditions for glaciation, and as a result showed a higher shrinkage rate than other glacierized areas of the Tien Shan from 1956 to 2012.

In this study, the collision of ice floes under the action of a monotonic wave is quantified. The lateral motion of an ice floe caused by the wave is modeled as the sliding of an object under gravity. In this case, the gravity component in the direction of motion varies with time and space as the wave progresses by the floe. Drag and added mass effects are included in the model. Two floes located at different positions are shown to have a net difference in their drift (caused only be repeated wave passages). In most cases, this differential drift eventually causes floe collision. When two floes collide, a spring and dash-pot model is adopted to calculate the contact force. A one-dimensional wave passing through a one-dimensional array of disc-shaped floes is examined. Two phenomena are apparent from the analysis. First, waves have a herding effect that forms bands of floes with the width equal to the wavelength. Secondly, the frequency of collision is sensitive to the elastic properties of the floes and the wave amplitude. With sufficient values of the damping constant, which operates when two floes collide, the floes stay in contact for prolonged periods, indicating the potential to freeze together and form composite floes, as was observed in the field studies.

Changes in the surface elevation of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets and ice shelves caused by variations in the rate of firn compaction are calculated with a time-dependent firn densification model driven by two decades (1982–2003) of satellite-observed monthly surface temperatures. The model includes the effects of melting and refreezing, both the direct changes in density and the subsequent effects on the densification rate. As previously shown, the temperature-dependent rate of densification is largest in summer, but changes in winter temperatures also have a significant effect. Over the last decade, climate warming has enhanced the rate of compaction and lowered the average surface elevation of Greenland by 1.8 cma-1 and most of West Antarctica by 1.9 cma–1. In East Antarctica, a small cooling raised the average surface elevation by 0.14 cma–1.

Various spatial discretizations for the ice sheet are compared for accuracy against analytical solutions in one and two dimensions. The computational efficiency of various iterated and non-iterated marching schemes is compared.

The stability properties of different marching schemes, with and without iterations on the non-linear equations, are compared. Newton–Raphson techniques permit the largest time steps. A new technique, which is based on the fact that the dynamics of unstable iterated maps contain information about where the unstable root lies, is shown to improve substantially the performance of Picard iteration at a negligible computational cost.

A full-stress, thermomechanically coupled, numerical model is used to explore the interaction between basal thermal conditions and motion of a terrestrially terminating section of the west Greenland ice sheet. The model domain is a two-dimensional flowline profile extending from the ice divide to the margin. We use data-assimilation techniques based on the adjoint model in order to optimize the basal traction field, minimizing the difference between modeled and observed surface velocities. We monitor the sensitivity of the frozen/melted boundary (FMB) to changes in prescribed geothermal heat flux and sliding speed by applying perturbations to each of these parameters. The FMB shows sensitivity to the prescribed geothermal heat flux below an upper threshold where a maximum portion of the bed is already melted. The position of the FMB is insensitive to perturbations applied to the basal traction field. This insensitivity is due to the short distances over which longitudinal stresses act in an ice sheet.