We consider a diffusing particle in one dimension that is subject to a time-dependent drift or potential field. A reflecting barrier constrains the particle's position to the half-line X ≥ 0. Such models arise naturally in the study of queues with time-dependent arrival rates, as well as in advection-diffusion problems of mathematical physics. We solve for the probability distribution of the particle as a function of space and time. Then we do a detailed study of the asymptotic properties of the solution, for various ranges of space and time. We also relate our asymptotic results to those obtained by probabilistic approaches, such as central limit theorems and large deviations. We consider drifts that are either piecewise constant or linear functions of time.

Criteria are established for a discrete-time Markov process {Xn}n≧0 in Rd to have strictly positive, respectively zero, probability of escaping to infinity. These criteria are mainly in terms of the mean displacement vectors μ(y) = E{Xn+1|Xn = y} – y, and are essentially such that they force a deterministic process w.p.1 to move off to infinity, respectively to return to a compact set infinitely often. As an application we determine of most two-dimensional birth and death processes with rates linearly dependent on the population, whether they can escape to infinity or not.

In this paper we consider a risk model where claims arrive according to a Markovian arrival process (MAP). When the surplus becomes negative or the insurer is in deficit, the insurer could borrow money at a constant debit interest rate to repay the claims. We derive the integro-differential equations satisfied by the discounted penalty functions and discuss the solutions. A matrix renewal equation is obtained for the discounted penalty function provided that the initial surplus is nonnegative. Based on this matrix renewal equation, we present some asymptotic formulae for the discounted penalty functions when the claim size distributions are heavy tailed.

Start with a compact set K ⊂ Rd. This has a random number of daughter sets, each of which is a (rotated and scaled) copy of K and all of which are inside K. The random mechanism for producing daughter sets is used independently on each of the daughter sets to produce the second generation of sets, and so on, repeatedly. The random fractal set F is the limit, as n goes to ∞, of the union of the nth generation sets. In addition, K has a (suitable, random) mass which is divided randomly between the daughter sets, and this random division of mass is also repeated independently, indefinitely. This division of mass will correspond to a random self-similar measure on F. The multifractal spectrum of this measure is studied here. Our main contributions are dealing with the geometry of realisations in Rd and drawing systematically on known results for general branching processes. In this way we generalise considerably the results of Arbeiter and Patzschke (1996) and Patzschke (1997).

Asymptotic independence of the components of random vectors is a concept used in many applications. The standard criteria for checking asymptotic independence are given in terms of distribution functions (DFs). DFs are rarely available in an explicit form, especially in the multivariate case. Often we are given the form of the density or, via the shape of the data clouds, we can obtain a good geometric image of the asymptotic shape of the level sets of the density. In this paper we establish a simple sufficient condition for asymptotic independence for light-tailed densities in terms of this asymptotic shape. This condition extends Sibuya's classic result on asymptotic independence for Gaussian densities.

We study sample covariance matrices of the form W = (1 / n)CCT, where C is a k x n matrix with independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) mean 0 entries. This is a generalization of the so-called Wishart matrices, where the entries of C are i.i.d. standard normal random variables. Such matrices arise in statistics as sample covariance matrices, and the high-dimensional case, when k is large, arises in the analysis of DNA experiments. We investigate the large deviation properties of the largest and smallest eigenvalues of W when either k is fixed and n → ∞ or kn → ∞ with kn = o(n / log log n), in the case where the squares of the i.i.d. entries have finite exponential moments. Previous results, proving almost sure limits of the eigenvalues, require only finite fourth moments. Our most explicit results for large k are for the case where the entries of C are ∓ 1 with equal probability. We relate the large deviation rate functions of the smallest and largest eigenvalues to the rate functions for i.i.d. standard normal entries of C. This case is of particular interest since it is related to the problem of decoding of a signal in a code-division multiple-access (CDMA) system arising in mobile communication systems. In this example, k is the number of users in the system and n is the length of the coding sequence of each of the users. Each user transmits at the same time and uses the same frequency; the codes are used to distinguish the signals of the separate users. The results imply large deviation bounds for the probability of a bit error due to the interference of the various users.

It is shown that the time to ruin and the recovery time in a risk process have the same distribution as the busy period in a certain queueing system. Similarly, the deficit at the time of ruin is distributed as the idle period in a single-server queueing system. These duality results are exploited to derive upper bounds for the expected time to ruin and the expected recovery time as defined by Egídio dos Reis (2000). When the claim size is generally distributed, Lorden's inequality is applied to derive the bounds. When the claim-size distribution is of phase type, tighter upper bounds are derived.

We analyse the role of Euler summation in a numerical inversion algorithm for Laplace transforms due to Abate and Whitt called the EULER algorithm. Euler summation is shown to accelerate convergence of a slowly converging truncated Fourier series; an explicit bound for the approximation error is derived that generalizes a result given by O'Cinneide. An enhanced inversion algorithm called EULER-GPS is developed using a new variant of Euler summation. The algorithm EULER-GPS makes it possible to accurately invert transforms of functions with discontinuities at arbitrary locations. The effectiveness of the algorithm is verified through numerical experiments. Besides numerical transform inversion, the enhanced algorithm is applicable to a wide range of other problems where the goal is to recover point values of a piecewise-smooth function from the Fourier series.

We analyse SIS epidemics among populations partitioned into households. The analysis considers both the stochastic and deterministic models and, unlike in previous analyses, we consider general infectious period distributions. For the deterministic model, we prove the existence of an endemic equilibrium for the epidemic if and only if the threshold parameter, R*, is greater than 1. Furthermore, by utilising Markov chains we show that the total number of infectives converges to the endemic equilibrium as t → ∞. For the stochastic model, we prove a law of large numbers result for the convergence, to the deterministic limit, of the mean number of infectives per household. This is followed by the derivation of a Gaussian limit process for the fluctuations of the stochastic model.

Gaussian particles provide a flexible framework for modelling and simulating three-dimensional star-shaped random sets. In our framework, the radial function of the particle arises from a kernel smoothing, and is associated with an isotropic random field on the sphere. If the kernel is a von Mises-Fisher density, or uniform on a spherical cap, the correlation function of the associated random field admits a closed form expression. The Hausdorff dimension of the surface of the Gaussian particle reflects the decay of the correlation function at the origin, as quantified by the fractal index. Under power kernels we obtain particles with boundaries of any Hausdorff dimension between 2 and 3.

An exponential approximation for the stationary waiting time distribution and the stationary queue size distribution for single-server queues in heavy traffic is given for a wide class of queues. This class contains for example not only queues for which the generic sequence, i.e. the sequence of service times and interarrival times, is stationary but also such queues for which the generic sequence is asymptotically stationary in some sense. The conditions ensuring the exponential approximation of the characteristics considered in heavy traffic are expressed in terms of the invariance principle for the stationary representation of the generic sequence and its first two moments.

A level crossing predictor is a predictor process Y(t) which can be used to predict whether a specific process X(t) will cross a predetermined level or not. A natural criterion of how good a predictor is can be the probability that a crossing is detected a sufficient time ahead, and the number of times the predictor makes a false alarm.

Suppose the process X(t) consists of a deterministic part A(t) which can be calculated with sufficient accuracy, and a stochastic part Xe(t) which can be predicted by some statistically based predictor An example of this is the prediction of water level near a coast, when A(t) is a sum of known tide components.

The paper develops a tool to handle the detection properties of such predictor processes when used to predict level crossings for the case when A(t) is periodic or is a sum of such functions.

The problem of estimating an unknown compact convex set K in the plane, from a sample (X1,···,Xn) of points independently and uniformly distributed over K, is considered. Let Kn be the convex hull of the sample, Δ be the Hausdorff distance, and Δn := Δ (K, Kn). Under mild conditions, limit laws for Δn are obtained. We find sequences (an), (bn) such that

(Δn - bn)/an → Λ (n → ∞), where Λ is the Gumbel (double-exponential) law from extreme-value theory. As expected, the directions of maximum curvature play a decisive role. Our results apply, for instance, to discs and to the interiors of ellipses, although for eccentricity e < 1 the first case cannot be obtained from the second by continuity. The polygonal case is also considered.

We define a class of tessellation models based on perturbing or deforming standard tessellations such as the Voronoi tessellation. We show how distributions over this class of ‘deformed’ tessellations can be used to define prior distributions for models based on tessellations, and how inference for such models can be carried out using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods; stability properties of the algorithms are investigated. Our approach applies not only to fixed dimension problems, but also to variable dimension problems, in which the number of cells in the tessellation is unknown. We illustrate our methods with two real examples. The first relates to reconstructing animal territories, represented by the individual cells of a tessellation, from observation of an inhomogeneous Poisson point process. The second example involves the analysis of an image of a cross-section through a sample of metal, with the tessellation modelling the micro-crystalline structure of the metal.

This paper is devoted to the study of some asymptotic behaviors of Poisson-Voronoi tessellation in the Euclidean space as the space dimension tends to ∞. We consider a family of homogeneous Poisson-Voronoi tessellations with constant intensity λ in Euclidean spaces of dimensions n = 1, 2, 3, …. First we use the Blaschke-Petkantschin formula to prove that the variance of the volume of the typical cell tends to 0 exponentially in dimension. It is also shown that the volume of intersection of the typical cell with the co-centered ball of volume u converges in distribution to the constant λ−1(1 − e−λu). Next we consider the linear contact distribution function of the Poisson-Voronoi tessellation and compute the limit when the space dimension goes to ∞. As a by-product, the chord length distribution and the geometric covariogram of the typical cell are obtained in the limit.

We derive necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of bounded or summable solutions to systems of linear equations associated with Markov chains. This substantially extends a famous result of G. E. H. Reuter, which provides a convenient means of checking various uniqueness criteria for birth-death processes. Our result allows chains with much more general transition structures to be accommodated. One application is to give a new proof of an important result of M. F. Chen concerning upwardly skip-free processes. We then use our generalization of Reuter's lemma to prove new results for downwardly skip-free chains, such as the Markov branching process and several of its many generalizations. This permits us to establish uniqueness criteria for several models, including the general birth, death, and catastrophe process, extended branching processes, and asymptotic birth-death processes, the latter being neither upwardly skip-free nor downwardly skip-free.

Singh and Jain (1989) have proved some preservation results for partial orderings of life distributions assuming that shocks occur according to a homogeneous Poisson process. It is shown that their results hold under less restrictive conditions.

A formula is proved for the expected value of sum of a function of gene frequency along a sample path in the past, given the present frequency. The proof and the explanation of the formula is based on the general theory of time reversal of Markov processes. Moreover, a relation between time reversal and conditional processes is discussed, and it is shown that the fictitious drift term appears when one looks back at the history of mutants given the present frequency.

This paper presents some limit theorems for the simple branching process allowing immigration, {Xn}, when the offspring mean is infinite. It is shown that there exists a function U such that {e–nU/(Xn)} converges almost surely, and if s = ∑ bj, log+U(j) < ∞, where {bj} is the immigration distribution, the limit is non-defective and non-degenerate but is infinite if s = ∞.

When s = ∞, limit theorems are found for {U(Xn)} which involve a slowly varying non-linear norming.

We study an affine two-factor model introduced by Barczy et al. (2014). One component of this two-dimensional model is the so-called α-root process, which generalizes the well-known Cox–Ingersoll–Ross process. In the α = 2 case, this two-factor model was used by Chen and Joslin (2012) to price defaultable bonds with stochastic recovery rates. In this paper we prove exponential ergodicity of this two-factor model when α ∈ (1, 2). As a possible application, our result can be used to study the parameter estimation problem of the model.