We investigate the ‘clumping versus local finiteness' behavior in the infinite backward tree for a class of branching particle systems in ℝd with symmetric stable migration and critical ‘genuine multitype' branching. Under mild assumptions on the branching we establish, by analysing certain ergodic properties of the individual ancestral process, a critical dimension dc such that the (measure-valued) tree-top is almost surely locally finite if and only if d > dc. This result is used to obtain L1-norm asymptotics of a corresponding class of systems of non-linear partial differential equations.

The paper studies the problem of optimal adaptation of an M/M/1 queueing station, when the arrival rate λ0 of customers shifts at unknown epoch, τ, to a known value, λ1. The service intensity of the system starts at μ0 and can be increased at most N times to μ1 < μ2 < · · · < μN. The cost structure consists of the cost changing μi to μj (i + 1 ≦ j ≦ N); of maintaining service at rate μ (per unit of time) and of holding customers at the station (per unit of time). Adaptation policies are constrained by the fact that μ can be only increased. A Bayes solution is derived, under the prior assumption that τ has an exponential distribution. This solution minimizes the total expected discounted cost for the entire future.

For natural integer n, let D n denote the random variable taking the values log d for d dividing n with uniform probability 1/τ(n). Then t↦ℙ(D n ≤n t ) (0≤t≤1) is an arithmetic process with respect to the uniform probability over the first N integers. It is known from previous works that this process converges to a limit law and that the same holds for various extensions. We investigate the generalized moments of arbitrary orders for the limit laws. We also evaluate the mean value of the two-dimensional distribution function ℙ(D n ≤n u , D{n/D n}≤n v ).

This paper uses martingale calculus in order to study the Markov properties of diffusion local time first discovered by Ray and Knight. The approach enables us to calculate the laws of the processes involved and is easily modified to deal with conditioning with respect to the excursion σ-fields.

The processes X and Y are said to interact if the laws governing the changes of either of them at time t depend on the values of the other process at times up to t. For bivariate interacting Markov processes, their limiting behavior is analysed by means of an approximation suggested by Fuhrmann, consisting of discretizing time, and assuming that in each time interval the processes develop independently, according to the laws obtained by fixing the value of the other process at its level attained at the beginning of the interval.

In this way the conditions for almost sure extinction, escape to ∞ with positive probability, etc., are obtained (by using the martingale convergence theorem) for state-dependent branching processes studied by Roi, and for bivariate processes with one component piecewise determined.

We study large deviation principles for a model of wireless networks consisting of Poisson point processes of transmitters and receivers. To each transmitter we associate a family of connectable receivers whose signal-to-interference-and-noise ratio is larger than a certain connectivity threshold. First, we show a large deviation principle for the empirical measure of connectable receivers associated with transmitters in large boxes. Second, making use of the observation that the receivers connectable to the origin form a Cox point process, we derive a large deviation principle for the rescaled process of these receivers as the connection threshold tends to 0. Finally, we show how these results can be used to develop importance sampling algorithms that substantially reduce the variance for the estimation of probabilities of certain rare events such as users being unable to connect.

In this paper we are concerned with analysing optimal wealth allocation techniques within a defaultable financial market similar to Bielecki and Jang (2007). We study a portfolio optimization problem combining a continuous-time jump market and a defaultable security; and present numerical solutions through the conversion into a Markov decision process and characterization of its value function as a unique fixed point to a contracting operator. In this paper we analyse allocation strategies under several families of utility functions, and highlight significant portfolio selection differences with previously reported results.

This article investigates the long-time behavior of conservative affine processes on the cone of symmetric positive semidefinite $d\times d$ matrices. In particular, for conservative and subcritical affine processes we show that a finite $\log$ -moment of the state-independent jump measure is sufficient for the existence of a unique limit distribution. Moreover, we study the convergence rate of the underlying transition kernel to the limit distribution: first, in a specific metric induced by the Laplace transform, and second, in the Wasserstein distance under a first moment assumption imposed on the state-independent jump measure and an additional condition on the diffusion parameter.

What is the effect of punching holes at random in an infinite tensed membrane? When will the membrane still support tension? This problem was introduced by Connelly in connection with applications of rigidity theory to natural sciences. The answer clearly depends on the shapes and the distribution of the holes. We briefly outline a mathematical theory of tension based on graph rigidity theory and introduce a probabilistic model for this problem. We show that if the centers of the holes are distributed in ℝ2 according to a Poisson law with density λ > 0, and the shapes are i.i.d. and independent of the locations of their centers, the tension is lost on all of ℝ2 for any λ. After introducing a certain step-by-step dynamic for the loss of tension, we establish the existence of a nonrandom N = N(λ) such that N steps are almost surely enough for the loss of tension. Also, we prove that N(λ) > 2 almost surely for sufficiently small λ. The processes described in the paper are related to bootstrap and rigidity percolation.

We investigate the asymptotic properties of the transient queue length process Q(t)=max(Q(0)+X(t)-ct, sup0≤s≤t(X(t)-X(s)-c(t-s))), t≥0, in the Gaussian fluid queueing model, where the input process X is modeled by a centered Gaussian process with stationary increments and c>0 is the output rate. More specifically, under some mild conditions on X and Q(0)=x≥0, we derive the exact asymptotics of πx,Tu(u)=ℙ(Q(Tu)>u) as u→∞. The interplay between u and Tu leads to two qualitatively different regimes: short-time horizon when Tu is relatively small with respect to u, and moderate- or long-time horizon when Tu is asymptotically much larger than u. As a by-product, we discuss the implications for the speed of convergence to stationarity of the model studied.

The distribution (1) used previously by the author to represent polymerisation of several types of unit also prescribes quite general statistics for a random field on a random graph. One has the integral expression (3) for its partition function, but the multiple complex form of the integral makes the nature of the expected saddlepoint evaluation in the thermodynamic limit unclear. It is shown in Section 4 that such an evaluation at a real positive saddlepoint holds, and subsidiary conditions narrowing down the choice of saddlepoint are deduced in Section 6. The analysis simplifies greatly in what is termed the semi-coupled case; see Sections 3, 5 and 7. In Section 8 the analysis is applied to an Ising model on a random graph of fixed degree r + 1. The Curie point of this model is found to agree with that deduced by Spitzer for an Ising model on an r-branching tree. This agreement strengthens the conclusion of ‘locally tree-like' behaviour of the graph, seen as an important property in a number of contexts.

This paper deals with the computation of survival probabilities and extinction times for multitype positively regular branching processes. If all of the generating functions of the offspring distributions are of the linear fractional form and have the same denominator, explicit expressions may be obtained for all of their iterates. It is then possible to obtain formulae for survival probabilities and bounds on the mean time to extinction, given extinction, of a line descended from a single individual. If there are two types and the offspring distributions are bivariate Poisson, their generating functions may be bounded by linear fractional generating functions. It is then possible to compute upper and lower bounds on mean times to extinction, given extinction, and this is done for some special cases.

Suppose that a mobile sensor describes a Markovian trajectory in the ambient space and at each time the sensor measures an attribute of interest, e.g. the temperature. Using only the location history of the sensor and the associated measurements, we estimate the average value of the attribute over the space. In contrast to classical probabilistic integration methods, e.g. Monte Carlo, the proposed approach does not require any knowledge of the distribution of the sensor trajectory. We establish probabilistic bounds on the convergence rates of the estimator. These rates are better than the traditional `root n'-rate, where n is the sample size, attached to other probabilistic integration methods. For finite sample sizes, we demonstrate the favorable behavior of the procedure through simulations and consider an application to the evaluation of the average temperature of oceans.

Some Wiener-Hopf type results are collected, related and given more direct proofs. Spitzer's random-walk method for the Wiener-Hopf integral equation also produces his factorisation relating functionals of maxima and minima. Transform equations are interpreted as decompositions of time-changed processes. Discrete- and continuous-time versions are related. Prabhu's factorisation for generators is equivalent to Fristedt's Lévy measure factorisation and to process decomposition.

This work studies the long-term effects of mutation and selection pressures on a diploid population embracing many genetic types. A number of results previously established for the simpler asexual case (see [4]) are extended to the cases of random mating and complete inbreeding (Theorem 1), and then, under particular conditions, to certain circumstances of mixed random mating and inbreeding (Theorem 3 and Corollary 1). Several implications for sex and diploidity are drawn from Theorem 2 and its corollaries. Further biological interpretations of these findings, especially of Theorem 2, are given in [3].

Branching processes are classical growth models in cell kinetics. In their construction, it is usually assumed that cell lifetimes are independent random variables, which has been proved false in experiments. Models of dependent lifetimes are considered here, in particular bifurcating Markov chains. Under the hypotheses of stationarity and multiplicative ergodicity, the corresponding branching process is proved to have the same type of asymptotics as its classic counterpart in the independent and identically distributed supercritical case: the cell population grows exponentially, the growth rate being related to the exponent of multiplicative ergodicity, in a similar way as to the Laplace transform of lifetimes in the i.i.d. case. An identifiable model for which the multiplicative ergodicity coefficients and the growth rate can be explicitly computed is proposed.

Random sets with long-range dependence can be generated using a Boolean model with power-law grain sizes. We study thinnings of such Boolean models which have the hard-core property that no grains overlap in the resulting germ‒grain model. A fundamental question is whether long-range dependence is preserved under such thinnings. To answer this question, we study four natural thinnings of a Poisson germ‒grain model where the grains are spheres with a regularly varying size distribution. We show that a thinning which favors large grains preserves the slow correlation decay of the original model, whereas a thinning which favors small grains does not. Our most interesting finding concerns the case where only disjoint grains are retained, which corresponds to the well-known Matérn type-I thinning. In the resulting germ‒grain model, typical grains have exponentially small sizes, but rather surprisingly, the long-range dependence property is still present. As a byproduct, we obtain new mechanisms for generating homogeneous and isotropic random point configurations having a power-law correlation decay.

We study a stochastic differential equation driven by a Poisson point process, which models the continuous change in a population's environment, as well as the stochastic fixation of beneficial mutations that might compensate for this change. The fixation probability of a given mutation increases as the phenotypic lag Xt between the population and the optimum grows larger, and successful mutations are assumed to fix instantaneously (leading to an adaptive jump). Our main result is that the process is transient (i.e. converges to -∞, so that continued adaptation is impossible) if the rate of environmental change v exceeds a parameter m, which can be interpreted as the rate of adaptation in case every beneficial mutation becomes fixed with probability 1. If v < m, the process is Harris recurrent and possesses a unique invariant probability measure, while in the limiting case m = v, Harris recurrence with an infinite invariant measure or transience depends upon additional technical conditions. We show how our results can be extended to a class of time varying rates of environmental change.

A transition probability kernel P(·,·) is said to be stochastically monotone if P(x, (–∞, y]) is non-increasing in x for every fixed y. A Markov chain is said to be stochastically monotone (SMMC) if its transition probability kernels are stochastically monotone. A new method for tackling the asymptotics of SMMC is given in terms of some limit variables {Wq}. In the temporally homogeneous case a cyclic pattern for {Wq} will describe the limit behaviour of suitably normed and centred processes. As a consequence, geometrically growing constants turn out to pertain to almost sure convergence. Some convergence criteria are given and applications to branching processes and diffusions are outlined.

Using a result of Blanchet and Wallwater (2015) for exactly simulating the maximum of a negative drift random walk queue endowed with independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) increments, we extend it to a multi-dimensional setting and then we give a new algorithm for simulating exactly the stationary distribution of a first-in–first-out (FIFO) multi-server queue in which the arrival process is a general renewal process and the service times are i.i.d.: the FIFO GI/GI/c queue with $ 2 \leq c \lt \infty$ . Our method utilizes dominated coupling from the past (DCFP) as well as the random assignment (RA) discipline, and complements the earlier work in which Poisson arrivals were assumed, such as the recent work of Connor and Kendall (2015). We also consider the models in continuous time, and show that with mild further assumptions, the exact simulation of those stationary distributions can also be achieved. We also give, using our FIFO algorithm, a new exact simulation algorithm for the stationary distribution of the infinite server case, the GI/GI/ $\infty$ model. Finally, we even show how to handle fork–join queues, in which each arriving customer brings c jobs, one for each server.