In this paper we give a new flavour to what Peter Jagers and his co-authors call `the path to extinction'. In a neutral population of constant size N, assume that each individual at time 0 carries a distinct type, or allele. Consider the joint dynamics of these N alleles, for example the dynamics of their respective frequencies and more plainly the nonincreasing process counting the number of alleles remaining by time t. Call this process the extinction process. We show that in the Moran model, the extinction process is distributed as the process counting (in backward time) the number of common ancestors to the whole population, also known as the block counting process of the N-Kingman coalescent. Stimulated by this result, we investigate whether it extends (i) to an identity between the frequencies of blocks in the Kingman coalescent and the frequencies of alleles in the extinction process, both evaluated at jump times, and (ii) to the general case of Λ-Fleming‒Viot processes.

Let (Mn,Sn)n≥0 be a Markov random walk with positive recurrent driving chain (Mn)n≥0 on the countable state space 𝒮 with stationary distribution π. Suppose also that lim supn→∞Sn=∞ almost surely, so that the walk has almost-sure finite strictly ascending ladder epochs σn>. Recurrence properties of the ladder chain (Mσn>)n≥0 and a closely related excursion chain are studied. We give a necessary and sufficient condition for the recurrence of (Mσn>)n≥0 and further show that this chain is positive recurrent with stationary distribution π> and 𝔼π>σ1><∞ if and only if an associated Markov random walk (𝑀̂n,𝑆̂n)n≥0, obtained by time reversal and called the dual of (Mn,Sn)n≥0, is positive divergent, i.e. 𝑆̂n→∞ almost surely. Simple expressions for π> are also provided. Our arguments make use of coupling, Palm duality theory, and Wiener‒Hopf factorization for Markov random walks with discrete driving chain.

Tail asymptotics of the solution R to a fixed-point problem of the type R=DQ+∑1NRm are derived under heavy-tailed conditions allowing both dependence between Q and N and the tails to be of the same order of magnitude. Similar results are derived for a K-class version with applications to multi-type branching processes and busy periods in multi-class queues.

Let {Xi}i≥1 be independent, identically distributed random vectors in ℤd,d≥1. Let LLn(x)≡ℙ(Sn=x),n≥1,x∈ℤd, be the likelihood function for Sn=∑i=1nXi. For integers j≥2 and n≥1, let an(j)≡∑x∈ℤd(Ln(x))j. We show that if X1-X2 has a nondegenerate aperiodic distribution in ℤd and 𝔼(∥X1∥2)>∞, then limn→∞n(j-1)d∕2an(j)≡a(j,d) exists and 0<a(j,d)<∞. Some extensions and open problems are also outlined.

The effect of small noise in a smooth dynamical system is negligible on any finite time interval; in this paper we study situations where the effect persists on intervals increasing to ∞. Such an asymptotic regime occurs when the system starts from an initial condition that is sufficiently close to an unstable fixed point. In this case, under appropriate scaling, the trajectory converges to a solution of the unperturbed system started from a certain random initial condition. In this paper we consider the case of one-dimensional diffusions on the positive half-line; this case often arises as a scaling limit in population dynamics.

We discuss percolation and random walks in a class of homogeneous ultrametric spaces together with similarities and differences in ultrametric and Euclidean spaces. We briefly outline the role of these models in the study of interacting systems. Several open problems are presented.

Recent progress in microdissection and in DNA sequencing has facilitated the subsampling of multi-focal cancers in organs such as the liver in several hundred spots, helping to determine the pattern of mutations in each of these spots. This has led to the construction of genealogies of the primary, secondary, tertiary, and so forth, foci of the tumor. These studies have led to diverse conclusions concerning the Darwinian (selective) or neutral evolution in cancer. Mathematical models of the development of multi-focal tumors have been devised to support these claims. We offer a model for the development of a multi-focal tumor: it is a mathematically rigorous refinement of a model of Ling et al. (2015). Guided by numerical studies and simulations, we show that the rigorous model, in the form of an infinite-type branching process, displays distributions of tumor size which have heavy tails and moments that become infinite in finite time. To demonstrate these points, we obtain bounds on the tails of the distributions of the process and an infinite series expansion for the first moments. In addition to its inherent mathematical interest, the model is corroborated by recent literature on apparent super-exponential growth in cancer metastases.

Let Sn,n≥1, be the successive sums of the payoffs in the classical St. Petersburg game. The celebrated Feller weak law states that Sn∕(nlog2n)→ℙ1 as n→∞. In this paper we review some earlier results of ours and extend some of them as we consider an asymmetric St. Petersburg game, in which the distribution of the payoff X is given by ℙ(X=srk-1)=pqk-1,k=1,2,…, where p+q=1 and s,r>0. Two main results are extensions of the Feller weak law and the convergence in distribution theorem of Martin-Löf (1985). Moreover, it is well known that almost-sure convergence fails, though Csörgő and Simons (1996) showed that almost-sure convergence holds for trimmed sums and also for sums trimmed by an arbitrary fixed number of maxima. In view of the discreteness of the distribution we focus on `max-trimmed sums', that is, on the sums trimmed by the random number of observations that are equal to the largest one, and prove limit theorems for simply trimmed sums, for max-trimmed sums, as well as for the `total maximum'. Analogues with respect to the random number of summands equal to the minimum are also obtained and, finally, for joint trimming.

The Quicksort process R (Rösler (2018)) can be characterized as the unique endogenous solution of the inhomogeneous stochastic fixed point equation R=D(UR1(1∧t∕U)+𝟭{U<t}(1-U)R2((t-U)∕(1-U))+C(U,t))t on the space 𝒟 of càdlàg functions, such that R(1) has the Quicksort distribution. In this paper we characterize all 𝒟-valued solutions of that equation. Every solution can be represented as the convolution of a solution of the inhomogeneous equation and a general solution of the homogeneous equation (Rüschendorf (2006)). The general solutions of the homogeneous equation are the distributions of Cauchy processes Y with constant drift. Any distribution of R+Y for independent R and Y is a solution of the inhomogeneous equation. Every solution of the inhomogeneous equation is of the form R+Y, where R and Y are independent. The endogenous solutions for the inhomogeneous equation are the shifted Quicksort process distributions. In comparison, the Quicksort distribution is the endogenous solution of the Quicksort fixed point equation unique up to a constant (Rösler (1991)). The general solution can be represented as the convolution of the shifted Quicksort distribution and some symmetric Cauchy distribution (Fill and Janson (2000)), possibly degenerate.

Consider a supercritical Crump‒Jagers process in which all births are at integer times (the lattice case). Let μ̂(z) be the generating function of the intensity of the offspring process, and consider the complex roots of μ̂(z)=1. The root of smallest absolute value is e-α=1∕m, where α>0 is the Malthusian parameter; let γ* be the root of second smallest absolute value. Subject to some technical conditions, the second-order fluctuations of the age distribution exhibit one of three types of behaviour: (i) when γ*>e-α∕2=m-1∕2, they are asymptotically normal; (ii) when γ*=e-α∕2, they are still asymptotically normal, but with a larger variance; and (iii) when γ*<e-α∕2, the fluctuations are in general oscillatory and (degenerate cases excluded) do not converge in distribution. This trichotomy is similar to what has been observed in related situations, such as some other branching processes and for Pólya urns. The results lead to a symbolic calculus describing the limits. The asymptotic results also apply to the total of other (random) characteristics of the population.

We consider the evolution of the ancestral structure of a classical branching process in space and its diffusion limit. We also indicate how the conditional structure of the past can be described asymptotically in terms of suitable uniform Brownian trees.

We present a law of large numbers and a central limit theorem for the time to absorption of Λ-coalescents with dust started from n blocks, as n→∞. The proofs rely on an approximation of the logarithm of the block-counting process by means of a drifted subordinator.

We study the asymptotic behaviour of the expected exit time from an interval for the ARMA process, when the noise level approaches 0.

Genealogical constructions of population processes provide models which simultaneously record the forward-in-time evolution of the population size (and distribution of locations and types for models that include them) and the backward-in-time genealogies of the individuals in the population at each time t. A genealogical construction for continuous-time Markov branching processes from Kurtz and Rodrigues (2011) is described and exploited to give the normalized limit in the supercritical case. A Seneta‒Heyde norming is identified as a solution of an ordinary differential equation. The analogous results are given for continuous-state branching processes, including proofs of the normalized limits of Grey (1974) in both the supercritical and critical/subcritical cases.

In this paper we introduce multitype branching processes with inhomogeneous Poisson immigration, and consider in detail the critical Markov case when the local intensity r(t) of the Poisson random measure is a regularly varying function. Various multitype limit distributions (conditional and unconditional) are obtained depending on the rate at which r(t) changes with time. The asymptotic behaviour of the first and second moments, and the probability of nonextinction are investigated.

We introduce a modified Galton‒Watson process using the framework of an infinite system of particles labelled by (x,t), where x is the rank of the particle born at time t. The key assumption concerning the offspring numbers of different particles is that they are independent, but their distributions may depend on the particle label (x,t). For the associated system of coupled monotone Markov chains, we address the issue of pathwise duality elucidated by a remarkable graphical representation in which the trajectories of the primary Markov chains and their duals coalesce to form forest graphs on a two-dimensional grid.

Khintchine's (necessary and sufficient) slowly varying function condition for the weak law of large numbers (WLLN) for the sum of n nonnegative, independent and identically distributed random variables is used as an overarching (sufficient) condition for the case that the number of summands is more generally [cn],cn→∞. Either the norming sequence {an},an→∞, or the number of summands sequence {cn}, can be chosen arbitrarily. This theorem generalizes results from a motivating branching process setting in which Khintchine's sufficient condition is automatically satisfied. A second theorem shows that Khintchine's condition is necessary for the generalized WLLN when it holds with cn→∞ and an→∞. Theorem 3, which is known, gives a necessary and sufficient condition for Khintchine's WLLN to hold with cn=n and an a specific function of n; it is extended to general cn subject to a growth restriction in Theorem 4. Section 6 returns to the branching process setting.