Rapid advances in species distribution modelling have been facilitated by open availability of ‘big data’ and powerful statistical methods. A key consideration remains the time window over which field recorded occurrence data are sampled to develop a baseline species distribution. Too narrow, and distributions are incomplete and affected by sampling bias, too broad and distributions may fail to meet an assumption of equilibrium, having been affected by dynamic change across a range of different predictors. Lichens are a case in point; being diverse, functionally important and the subject of bioclimatic modelling for conservation assessment, they are nevertheless a specialist taxonomic group that is comparatively less well recorded compared to birds, mammals or vascular plants, for example. In this study, we examined the distribution of the ‘hair-lichen’ Bryoria fuscescens, based on UK record data. We partitioned records into sub-decadal periods (1970s, 1990s, 2010s), and accounting for recording effort, we compared these distributions to three predictors: an historical reconstruction of two different pollutants (sulphur dioxide and nitrogen deposition), and the climate (minimum mean temperature). We asked whether the strength of evidence for the effect of environmental predictors on Bryoria fuscescens distribution varied among the different decades, while also considering a potential for lag-effects. We show that a Bryoria fuscescens distribution that appears static, is dynamic when referenced against patterns of field recording effort. Climate was consistently important in explaining Bryoria fuscescens distribution, which was also affected by the changing pattern of pollution over time. This included a lag-effect of peak sulphur dioxide in the 1970s, and accrued effects of nitrogen deposition that strengthen over time. Overall, we conclude that Bryoria fuscescens has undergone a long-term decline in extent over the last six decades, caused by complex multivariate effects of air pollution, probably combined with climate warming. The ability to resolve these trends for assessment against future conservation targets depends critically on maintaining field identification skills and a sufficiently robust recording effort.

Svalbard has experienced a dramatic increase in air temperature and glacier retreat since the end of the Little Ice Age. In many cases, this retreat has resulted in glaciers transitioning from being marine-terminating to land-terminating. Nordenskiöldbreen is an excellent contemporary example of this transition. A set of historical observations of glacier front positions was used to assess Nordenskiöldbreen's retreat rate and we found that the southern portion of the glacier front retreated by ~3500 m, since records began in 1896. The general retreat rate corresponds well with the air temperature trend during most of the 20th century. However, the average retreat rate has slowed since the 1990s despite increasing air temperatures. We show that this discrepancy between air temperature and retreat rate marks the transition from marine-terminating towards a land-terminating glacier, as the glacier's bedrock topography started to play an essential role in the glacier margin geometry, ice flow and retreat dynamics.

This study focuses on the Tianshifu Basin, eastern Liaoning, China, which is filled with Lower–Middle Jurassic fluviolacustrine sediments rich in macroplants. Our aim is to explore the continental climate features of the late Early Jurassic period. The composition of the Early–Middle Jurassic flora and the carbon isotopic ratios of organic matter, total organic carbon, total organic nitrogen and sulphur of the rock samples from the Changliangzi section (the upper part of the Lower Jurassic deposits) have been investigated. Based on the flora, eastern Liaoning was generally characterized by temperate and humid conditions during the Early–Middle Jurassic period, but with rising temperatures during late Early Jurassic time. The sediments of the Changliangzi section show a transformation from shallow-lake facies to deep-lake facies. A positive organic carbon isotope excursion correlates with the deepening of this palaeolake, considered to be caused by climate warming. The late Early Jurassic climate warming indicated by floral and isotopic evidence corresponds to the climatic events recorded elsewhere in marine and continental sequences during the Toarcian Age, the so-called Toarcian Anoxic event, and may be associated with enhanced global greenhouse warming. This study provides new continental data supporting global warming during the late Early Jurassic period.

Despite nematodes routinely being the most frequent soil- and bryophyte-associated animals in maritime Antarctica, there is a lack of clarity about the influence of warming on their populations in the region. Here, we report the results of a field experiment on Adelaide Island that tested the effects of warming with open-top chambers (OTCs) for 37 months on nematodes associated with the bryophytes Cephaloziella varians and Sanionia uncinata. Over the experiment's duration, OTCs increased the population density of the nematode Plectus belgicae in mats of both bryophytes by six-fold, with four- to seven-fold increases in the abundances of male, female and juvenile P. belgicae in warmed mats, and with the largest effects on the abundances of juveniles. Despite C. varians, which is black in colour, warming to a greater extent than S. uncinata during summer, no interactive effects of OTCs and bryophyte species were recorded on the population density of P. belgicae. Our results corroborate a previous study showing that warming increases Plectus population densities in maritime Antarctic soils, with implications for the region's terrestrial food webs.

The Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region harbours some of the richest and most diverse ecosystems on the planet that are now facing substantial threats through changes in climate, land use and human population growth, with serious consequences for the biodiversity in this mountainous region. In this paper we evaluated the effects of climate change on the distribution of the tripartite epiphytic macrolichen Lobaria pindarensis, considered to be endemic to the Himalayas. To predict the current and future distribution of this species we applied the Random Forest modelling algorithm and climatic variables with a post-processing of projected distributions using a map of habitat types in the study region. We calibrated models based on 1397 species presences within an altitudinal range of 2036–4000 m and extrapolated them according to two IPCC scenarios of climate change (RCP 2·6 and RCP 8·5). Based on the results of ensemble modelling, two new localities where L. pindarensis might potentially occur were predicted. Our simulations predicted a range expansion of this epiphytic lichen to the north-east and to higher altitudes in response to climate change, although the species’ low dispersal abilities and the local availability of trees as a substratum will considerably limit latitudinal and altitudinal shifts. By contrast, assuming the species can migrate to previously unoccupied areas, and depending on different future climate scenarios, our models forecasted a habitat loss of 30–70% for L. pindarensis. The main reason for the simulated habitat loss is the expected increase in mean annual temperature (by 1·5–3·7 °C) and total annual precipitation (by 56–125 mm). Our results contribute further evidence for the high sensitivity of tripartite macrolichens, especially those from mountain areas, to climate change and particularly emphasize the vulnerability of L. pindarensis. Thus, we stress the need to develop and formulate conservation measures and strategies for the protection of this endemic species in the Hindu Kush Himalayan region.

Adélie penguins (Pygoscelis adeliae) are responding to ocean–climate variability throughout the marine ecosystem of the western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) where some breeding colonies have declined by 80%. Nuclear and mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) markers were used to understand historical population genetic structure and gene flow given relatively recent and continuing reductions in sea ice habitats and changes in numbers of breeding adults at colonies throughout the WAP. Genetic diversity, spatial genetic structure, genetic signatures of fluctuations in population demography and gene flow were assessed in four regional Adélie penguin colonies. The analyses indicated little genetic structure overall based on bi-parentally inherited microsatellite markers (FST =-0.006–0.004). No significant variance was observed in overall haplotype frequency (mtDNA ΦST =0.017; P=0.112). Some comparisons with Charcot Island were significant, suggestive of female-biased philopatry. Estimates of gene flow based on a two-population coalescent model were asymmetrical from the species’ regional core to its northern range. Breeding Adélie penguins of the WAP are a panmictic population and hold adequate genetic diversity and dispersal capacity to be resilient to environmental change.

A climate warming of 2–5°C by the end of the century will impact the likelihood of seed germination of sugar maple (Acer saccharum), a dominant tree species which possesses a restricted temperature range to ensure successful reproduction. We hypothesize that seed origin affects germination due to the species' local adaptation to temperature. We tested this by experimentally investigating the effect of incubation temperature and temperature shifting on sugar maple seed germination from seven different seed sources representing the current species range. Survival analysis showed that seeds from the northern range had the highest germination percentage, while the southern range had the lowest. The mean germination percentage under constant temperatures was best when temperatures were ≤5°C, whereas germination percentages plummeted at temperatures ≥11°C (5.8%). Cool shifting increased germination by 19.1% over constant temperature treatments and by 29.3% over warm shifting treatments. Both shifting treatments caused earlier germination relative to the constant temperature treatments. A climate warming of up to +5°C is shown to severely reduce germination of seeds from the southern range. However, under a more pronounced warming of 7°C, seed germination at the northern range become more affected and now comparable to those found from the southern range. This study states that the high seed germination percentage found in sugar maple at the northern range makes it fairly resilient to the warmest projected temperature increase for the next century. These findings provide forest managers with the necessary information to make accurate projections when considering strategies for future regeneration while also considering climate warming.

The areas in China with climates suitable for the potential distribution of the pest species red turpentine beetle (RTB) Dendroctonus valens LeConte (Coleoptera: Scolytidae) were predicted by CLIMEX based on historical climate data and future climate data with warming estimated. The model used a historical climate data set (1971–2000) and a simulated climate data set (2010–2039) provided by the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change (TYN SC 2.0). Based on the historical climate data, a wide area was available in China with a suitable climate for the beetle in which every province might contain suitable habitats for this pest, particularly all of the southern provinces. The northern limit of the distribution of the beetle was predicted to reach Yakeshi and Elunchun in Inner Mongolia, and the western boundary would reach to Keerkezi in Xinjiang Province. Based on a global-warming scenario, the area with a potential climate suited to RTB in the next 30 years (2010–2039) may extend further to the northeast. The northern limit of the distribution could reach most parts of south Heilongjiang Province, whereas the western limit would remain unchanged. Combined with the tendency for RTB to spread, the variation in suitable habitats within the scenario of extreme climate warming and the multiple geographical elements of China led us to assume that, within the next 30 years, RTB would spread towards the northeast, northwest, and central regions of China and could be a potentially serious problem for the forests of China.

The synchrony between emergence of spring-active, insect herbivores and the budburst of their host plants could be affected by warming temperatures with influences on the availability and quality of foliage as it undergoes physical and chemical changes. This can affect the growth and survival of insects. Here, we used sun-exposed and shaded trees to determine whether the synchrony between egg hatch of western tent caterpillar, Malacosoma californicum pluviale Dyar (Lepidoptera: Lasiocampidae) and budburst of its host red alder, Alnus rubra Bongard (Betulaceae) changes with different thermal environments (temperature and light together). To explore the potential outcome of a shift in phenological synchrony, we used laboratory assays of larval growth and survival to determine the effect of variation in young, youthful and mature leaves from sun-exposed and shaded trees. While the average higher temperature of sun-exposed trees advanced the timing of budburst and egg hatch, synchrony was not disrupted. Leaf quality had no significant influence on growth or survival in the laboratory for early instars reared as family groups. Later instar larvae, however, performed best on mature leaves from sun-exposed trees. The robust relationship between leaf and larval development of western tent caterpillars suggests that warming climates may not have a strong negative impact on their success through shifts in phenological synchrony, but might influence other aspects of leaf quality and larval condition.

Climate change in the Arctic is anticipated to alter the ecology of northern ecosystems, including the transmission dynamics of many parasite species. One parasite of concern is Ostertagia gruehneri, an abomasal nematode of Rangifer ssp. that causes reduced food intake, weight loss, and decreased pregnancy rates in reindeer. We investigated the development, availability, and overwinter survival of the free-living stages of O. gruehneri on the tundra. Fecal plots containing O. gruehneri eggs were established in the Northwest Territories, Canada under natural and artificially warmed conditions and sampled throughout the growing season of 2008 and the spring of 2009. Infective L3 were present 3–4 weeks post-establishment from all trials under both treatments, except for the trial established 4 July 2008 under warmed conditions wherein the first L3 was recovered 7 weeks post-establishment. These plots were exposed to significantly more time above 30°C than the natural plots established on the same date, suggesting a maximum temperature threshold for development. There was high overwinter survival of L2 and L3 across treatments and overwintering L2 appeared to develop to L3 the following spring. The impact of climate change on O. gruehneri is expected to be dynamic throughout the year with extreme maximum temperatures negatively impacting development rates.

Temperature can be a limiting factor on parasite development. Riccardoella limacum, a haematophagous mite, lives in the mantle cavity of helicid land snails. The prevalence of infection by R. limacum in populations of the land snail Arianta arbustorum is highly variable (0–78%) in Switzerland. However, parasitic mites do not occur in host populations at altitudes of 1290 m or higher. It has been hypothesized that the host's hibernation period might be too long at high elevations for mites and their eggs to survive. To test this hypothesis, we experimentally infected snails and allowed them to hibernate at 4°C for periods of 4–7 months. Winter survival of host snails was negatively affected by R. limacum. The intensity of mite infection decreased with increasing hibernation duration. Another experiment with shorter recording intervals revealed that mites do not leave the host when it buries in the soil at the beginning of hibernation. The number of mites decreased after 24 days of hibernation, whereas the number of eggs attached to the lung tissue remained constant throughout hibernation. Thus, R. limacum survives the winter in the egg stage in the host. Low temperature at high altitudes may limit the occurrence of R. limacum.

Walking speeds were calculated for nine clones of the peach potato aphid Myzus persicae collected from three countries along a latitudinal cline of its European distribution from Sweden to Spain (Sweden, UK and Spain), and the effects of collection origin and intra and intergenerational acclimation were investigated. Walking speeds declined with decreasing temperature, with maximum performance at temperatures closest to acclimation temperature (fastest median walking speed of 5.8 cm min–1 was recorded for clone UK 3, collected from the UK, at 25°C after acclimating to 25°C for one generation). Following acclimation at both 20°C and 25°C, walking ceased (as indicated by median walking speeds of 0.0 cm min–1) at temperatures as high as 7.5°C and 12.5°C. However, acclimation at 10°C enabled mobility to occur to temperatures as low as 0°C. There was no relationship between mobility and latitude of collection, suggesting that large scale mixing of aphids may occur across Europe. However, clonal variation was suggested, with clone UK 3 outperforming the majority of other clones across all temperatures at which mobility was maintained following acclimation at 10°C for one and three generations and at 25°C for one generation. The Scandinavian clones consistently outperformed their temperate and Mediterranean counterparts at the majority of temperatures following acclimation for three generations at 25°C.

The surroundings of the rocky island of Helgoland (German Bight, south-western North Sea) are one of the best-studied sites in European seas with species occurrence data available for nearly 150 years. As the area is strongly affected by global change (e.g. increase in mean sea surface temperature at Helgoland by 1.67°C since 1962), ecosystem structure and function are expected to change more than those of average marine systems. The paper presents a supplement to the local amphipod species inventory (5 nautical miles around the island). At least seven species of this ecologically important taxon seem to have newly established themselves at Helgoland since the late 1980s: Ampelisca typica, Amphilochus brunneus, Caprella mutica, Cheirocratus assimilis, Monocorophium acherusicum, Orchestia mediterranea and Orchomenella crenata. Most of them are not only new for the Helgoland area, but also for the German Bight; and two species (Amphilochus brunneus and Orchomenella crenata) are even new to the North Sea as a whole. Out of the seven new species, one (Caprella mutica) is a neozoon from the north-western Pacific. The other six species show clear warm water affinities (oceanic–Lusitanian species) which suggest a recent range expansion in the context of climate warming. The establishment of an increasing number of species formerly probably absent from the area does not seem to be compensated by losses of species, so that local species diversity is expected to increase.