Almost 40 per cent of Brazil's native vegetation is located on over five million private properties. This study assesses the potential of agricultural land taxes and tradable forest certificates for conserving Brazil's fragmented native vegetation across commercial farms, using micro census data from 2006 and 2017. We explore the variability of optimal tax rates and market prices for forest certificates, revealing a supply-demand imbalance in the Amazon and high sensitivity of conservation outcomes to changes in farmland opportunity costs, especially in productive areas. Despite a more positively skewed distribution of opportunity costs by 2017, market outcomes remained unaffected. Notably, expanding the market to include the Amazon's agricultural frontier microregions could achieve 45 per cent of the conservation target. Our analysis underscores the interplay between market-based conservation mechanisms and regional agricultural economics, highlighting the need for tailored approaches to optimize conservation efforts.

This paper analyzes inequities in the distribution of air pollution in Mexico at the detailed scale of localities. We find that air pollution increases in areas that experience a decline in socioeconomic status. We utilize 15 years of remote sensing data on fine particulate matter (smaller than 2.5 microns) for more than 116,500 localities across Mexico. Our panel data models show that localities that face a decline in socioeconomic status experience a 0.24–0.83 per cent increase in annual mean pollution concentrations. Our results hold up to controlling for changes within each municipality and instrumenting with broader municipality level socioeconomic status to test for ecological fallacy. We find that local air pollution inequities are reduced by political participation channels, but not as much by increased share of manufacturing activities due to polluters locating in poorer neighborhoods. Highly dense, urban municipalities witness higher inequities most likely due to traffic, construction, and agricultural fires.

Both Republican and Democratic administrations make regulatory and funding decisions with close reference to benefit–cost analysis (BCA). With respect to regulation, there has been a great deal of academic discussion of BCA and its limits, but almost no attention has been paid to the role of BCA in government funding. That is a serious gap, not least in connection with climate-related risks, such as wildfire, drought, extreme heat, and flooding. Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Circular A-94 sets out guidelines for the BCA required when people are applying to many federal discretionary grant programs. Through Circular A-94, OMB has long required applicants to demonstrate that the benefits of their projects would exceed the costs. But under Circular A-94 as it stood for many years, efficiency-based BCA could produce results that fail to maximize welfare and that are also highly inequitable. The 2023 revision of Circular A-94 focuses more directly on welfare and equity, which are now – not uncontroversially – being brought directly into policy. At the same time, the new Circular A-94 raises fresh questions about how best to promote welfare, and to consider equity, in practice. This article explains the economic foundations for promoting welfare through distributional weighting – and how the old BCA guidance fell short. It then offers recommendations on how to operationalize distributional weighting on the ground specifically for government spending programs – and for BCA more broadly.

Community Rating System (CRS) incentivizes investments in risk reduction above NFIP standards using discounts on insurance premiums. These discounts are cross-subsidized by increasing premiums in non-CRS communities. We examine the distribution of these subsidies and find that redistribution does occur, but the gains and losses are not economically large with 95% of households gaining or losing no more than 0.3% of household income. We also examine their relationship with other community characteristics and find that the strongest predictor of premium reductions is the underlying flood risk level within the community. Thus, CRS appears to reduce the cost of living in the riskier communities.

This article compares the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) ex ante cost analysis of its 1995 Large Municipal Waste Combustor (MWC): New Source Performance Standards and Emissions Guidelines rule to an ex post assessment of its cost. Unlike many retrospective cost analyses, where ex post assessments are limited due to lack of data on compliance costs, this case study is unique because we located and used plant-level survey data from the U.S. Department of Energy and Governmental Advisory Associates in a comparison of ex ante and ex post costs of individual MWCs. We find the ex post capital expenditures for nitrogen oxide control systems are typically lower than the EPA ex ante estimates, while the ex post capital expenditures for mercury control systems tend to be higher than the EPA ex ante estimates. Finally, while we find a few outliers, the average ratio of ex post to ex ante capital expenditures for particulate matter and sulfur dioxide emissions control is near unity.

We estimate the economic cost of nutrient reductions from riparian buffers in two counties in western Maryland. The costs and gains for farmers are estimated for establishing riparian buffers under the Conservation Reserve Enhancement Program. For nutrient reductions, we utilize nitrogen and phosphorus mitigation loads from the Chesapeake Bay Watershed Model and own estimates from our synoptic studies. We show that costs of reducing nutrients vary based on buffer type, its location, and the nutrient pollutant. We also show that installing riparian buffers alongside existing forests could be a more cost-effective practice for reducing nitrogen than other riparian buffers.

Emissions are directly linked to economic output and consequently subject to business cycle fluctuations. The present study analyses the interactions between climate policies and business cycles through the lens of a New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. We compare a static cap-and-trade policy with a dynamically adjusting policy in terms of macroeconomic stabilisation, welfare and emissions price dynamics. The results of the quantitative evaluation suggest that a constant policy leads to lower aggregate volatility but is associated with larger welfare costs. In contrast, under the dynamic policy emissions prices and labour markets display less variations.

The Australian Government has produced a CO2-equivalent tax proposal with a difference: it is a short prelude to an emission trading scheme that will allow the increasing rate of emissions to continue, while being a net cost to the Treasury. That cost extends to allowing major emitters to make guaranteed windfall profits from pollution permits. The emission trading scheme suffers numerous problems, but the issues raised in this article show that taxes can also be watered down and made ineffectual through concessions. Taxpayers will get no assets from the billions of dollars to be spent buying-off the coal generators or other polluters. The scheme seeks to stimulate private investors to create an additional 12 per cent in renewable electricity generation by 2020. A really serious emissions reducing alternative would need to create a nationalised electricity sector with 100 per cent renewable energy within a decade. We explore the limitations of Australia’s carbon tax plan which has now passed into law.

We propose a carbon tax policy for Delhi—the most polluted capital globally—which will fundamentally change the energy mix of Delhi’s economy toward clean, green energy and guarantee universal access to electricity, transport, and food, up to a certain amount. Any carbon mitigation strategy needs to alter our dependence on fossil fuels, requiring a systemic overhaul of its energy mix. Implementing a carbon tax will mitigate emissions and mobilise revenue for our proposed redistributive program: Right to Food, Energy, and Travel (RFET). The policy is designed to advocate for the ‘poor over the rich’ to compensate for the ‘rich hiding behind’ the poor by emitting the majority of carbon and pollutants. Using input–output analysis, we estimate the class-wise distribution of carbon emissions in Delhi. We find that the necessary tax would be US$112.5 per metric ton of carbon dioxide in order for this program to work. The free entitlement of fuel and electricity per household comes out to be 2040 kWh per annum, and there is an annual universal travel pass of US$75 per person for use in public transport and an annual per capita availability of food of US$205.

There has been much debate about the role of carbon prices in reducing greenhouse gas emissions in Australia. However there has been far less attention paid to the evaluation of complementary and other non-price policies designed to accompany the carbon price. The purpose of this article is to develop a framework for considering the case for, and effectiveness of, the wide range of existing and proposed complementary policies that are designed to accompany the carbon price in the effort to reduce Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions. The article concludes that an effective evaluation of complementary policies should include identifying the market failure the policy is aimed at correcting. The complementary policy should work in conjunction with, not opposition to, other polices aimed at reducing emissions. It should be complementary with the policies of other levels of government and it should also consider issues of efficiency, equity, accountability and adaptability.

This study investigates the impacts of the COVID-19 lockdown on municipal solid waste (MSW). Based on a unique data set of daily discarding records of 252 communities in Beijing, China, we conduct a difference-in-differences estimation and find that the total daily MSW decreased by 134.16 kg in a community, which is equivalent to at least 0.22 kg per household per day, and the average weight of MSW per package decreased by 56.8 per cent after the COVID-19 lockdown. We consider a series of potential mechanisms, such as MSW hoarding, shifts in discarding time, and fear of going out, and find the most support for consumption pattern shifts with reduced consumption. We then discuss the effect of the lockdown on the reduction of MSW generation because of the strict restriction of consumption. We also conduct various heterogeneity analyses. Our results present clear implications for municipal waste management by highlighting the effect of the lockdown on the generation of MSW and the underlying consumption mechanism.

In this study we investigate the effectiveness of environmental regulation in a large developing country. We construct a panel of 3,436 major toxics polluters from 2004 to 2015 using detailed plant-specific data on toxics releases, inspections, and fines, across Mexico. Our results show that regulators target polluters who are significantly non-compliant and impose higher fines on them. This has implications for the cost efficiency of monitoring and regulatory enforcement. An additional priority violation increases current toxics inspections, fines, and amount of fines by 7, 5 and 18 per cent, respectively. An additional priority violation followed by fines imposed on the plant results in a reduction in annual toxics releases by more than 50 per cent. Higher fines imposed on other major facilities in the same municipality induce plants to reduce the annual release of toxic pollutants by 0.1 per cent. Finally, inspections and fines increase the likelihood of reporting toxics releases.

Environmental policies are characterized by salient short-term costs and long-term benefits that are difficult to observe and to attribute to the government's efforts. These characteristics imply that citizens’ support for environmental policies is highly dependent on their trust in the government's capability to implement solutions and commitment to investments in those policies. Using novel survey data from Mexico City, we show that trust in the government is positively correlated with citizens’ willingness to support an additional tax approximately equal to a day's minimum wage to improve air quality and greater preference for government retention of revenues from fees collected from polluting firms. We find similar correlations using the perceived quality of public goods as a measure of government competence. These results provide evidence that mistrust can be an obstacle to better environmental outcomes.

This paper analyses the role that companion policies have had in the reduction of emissions regulated by the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) and the related policy interactions, with a view to identifying relevant insights for China's forthcoming Emissions Trading System (ETS). The investigation rests on: (a) the observation of the EU's and China's ETSs and policy mixes; (b) economic theory concerning companion policies and ETS design; and (c) empirical ex-post evidence from the EU ETS. Three main conclusions emerge from the analysis. First, China's ETS, while not imposing a fixed cap on emissions, will not be immune to waterbed effects of companion policies. Second, the European experience stresses the importance of making explicit the objectives pursued by companion policies, and of balancing policies for innovation and policies for adoption of low-carbon technologies. Third, in the presence of a major market surplus, only permanent adjustments to allowance supply can be effective in raising prices.

This paper sets out to explore to what extent integrating employment effects, equity, and risk aversion within cost–benefit analysis (CBA) affect the economic appraisal of a climate change adaptation project designed to protect against flood risk in a region of Bilbao (Basque Country, Spain). Four CBAs are conducted: (i) a standard CBA; (ii) a standard CBA considering equity; (iii) a standard CBA considering equity and employment; and (iv) a standard CBA considering equity, employment and risk aversion. All CBAs are conducted using a time frame of 2014–2080 and considering a 100-year return period under a middle of the road emission scenario (RCP4.5). A sensitivity analysis is also undertaken. Results suggest that the economic efficiency of the adaptation investment is contingent on what types of considerations are included within CBA. Integrating elements of employment, equity and risk aversion can strengthen or weaken the case for action (leading to higher or lower net-present values) and (depending on the discount rate chosen) may even be the deciding factor for determining whether a particular action should be carried out or not (whether the net-present value is positive or negative).

In this article, we present a model of the electricity sector where generation technologies are intermittent. The economic value of an electricity generation technology is given by integrating its production profile with the market price of electricity. We use estimates of the consumer's intertemporal elasticity of substitution for electricity consumption while parameterizing the model empirically to numerically calculate the elasticity between renewables and fossil energy. We find that there is a non-constant elasticity of substitution between renewable and fossil energy that depends on prices and intermittency. This suggests that the efficacy and welfare effects of carbon taxes and renewable subsidies vary geographically. Subsidizing research into battery technology and tailoring policy for local energy markets can mitigate these distributional side effects while complementing traditional policies used to promote renewable energy.

This paper sets up a dynamic model to study the distributive effects of privatizing an open access resource. We show that with or without discounting, privatization is not always Pareto improving. We further derive conditions under which the poor are made worse off when private use rights are equally distributed compared to a situation with open access resource. These conditions imply that privatization is Pareto improving if the natural resource is sufficiently productive, inequality in alternative private project opportunities is low, and if there is no discounting. In addition, we show that once reduction in income from resource harvesting during the transition to a new steady state is accounted for, privatization is desirable for the poor only for very productive natural resources and low discount rates.

Using cover crops can be beneficial not only for soil health but also for the environment. However, relatively few farmers have adopted cover crops, so understanding the barriers to adoption is necessary. We used a probit model with data on 1,712 soybean producers from the 2012 USDA Agricultural Resource Management Survey to identify factors affecting adoption of cover crops. We found that more precipitation was positively correlated with adoption, as was more hired labor. Adoption was also positively correlated with crop diversification and no-till adoption, which may relate to equipment availability.

Using U.S. state-level data for the period 1973–1994, this study models the relationship between emissions, output and pollution abatement by defining an emissions function, in a manner that is consistent with the residual (emissions) generation mechanism and firms' optimizing behavior. It thus accounts for factors that were previously unaccounted for or addressed only individually. Applications using this comprehensive setting can offer more informed insights for policy-making, something that is particularly useful for developing countries that face the environmental degradation that comes together with the benefits of economic growth. Using nonparametric econometric techniques as well as threshold regression, the empirical results show that there is a positive nonlinear relationship between emissions and output, rejecting an inverted-U type of relationship between the two (the Environmental Kuznets Curve, or EKC). In the absence of abatement the relationship turns around, verifying the arguments in the literature that abatement is one of the driving forces for an EKC to emerge.

This paper compares the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) ex ante compliance cost estimates for the 2004 Automobile and Light-Duty Truck Surface Coating National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants to ex post evidence on the actual costs of compliance based on ex post cost data gathered from a subset of the industry via pilot survey and follow-up interviews. Unlike many prior retrospective studies on the cost of regulatory compliance, we use this newly gathered information to identify the key drivers of any differences between the ex ante and ex post estimates. We find that the U.S. EPA overestimated the cost of compliance for the plants in our sample and that overestimation was driven primarily by differences in the method of compliance rather than differences in the per-unit cost associated with a given compliance approach. In particular, the U.S. EPA expected facilities to install pollution abatement control technologies in their paint shops to reduce emissions of hazardous air pollutants, but instead these plants complied by reformulating coatings.