We examine whether an individual's inability to save in the last 12 months affects the extent to which they are concerned about their future financial security and their propensity to plan for retirement. We use an original survey based upon representative samples of working individuals in 16 countries. We show that individuals who were unable to save over the 12-month period prior to the survey are less likely to consider well-being in retirement as their major financial concern. They are also less likely to invest in supplementary pension funds than those who were able to accumulate savings. We provide evidence that these findings are robust under several specifications and are mediated by respondents' perceived income prospects and assessment of their current financial situations.

The Great East Japan Earthquake of March 2011 and it's massive tidal waves wreaked devastating damage on residences and communities along 400 km of the Pacific coast in Japan. Using the panel data from the Japanese Study of Aging and Retirement, we estimate the effects of this disaster on individual health, finding a significant negative impact on the health of those in the area. In addition, we exploit a discontinuous decrease in copayments for medical care at the age of 70 years and find that the reduction in copayment increased medical and long-term care utilization and significantly reduced health deterioration after the earthquake.

The financial market assumptions of the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC)'s Pension Insurance Modeling System model are critical inputs to simulations for most apparent uses of the system. They currently appear to be based on a reduced form, ‘classical’ approach to assessing and forecasting the distribution of returns on various classes of input assets, allowing for a fairly sophisticated and useful approach to understanding simulated distributions of potential pension insurance outcomes as well as the net financial status of the PBGC. This technical note discusses some of the capital market side assumptions utilized in the model. It also comments on important related assumptions including the assumed asset allocations of insured plans, making suggestion for possible modification of input assumptions of the model to reflect time variation in financial market return behavior as well as time variation in observed plan allocations.

The central question of this paper is how international trade and specialization are affected by different designs of pension schemes and asymmetric demographic changes. In a model with two goods, two countries and two production factors, we find that countries with a relatively large unfunded pension scheme will specialize in the production of labour intensive goods. If these countries are hit by a negative demographic shock, this specialization will intensify in the long run. Eventually, these countries may even completely specialize in the production of those goods. The effects spill over to other countries, which will move away from complete specialization in capital intensive goods as the relative size of their labour intensive goods sector will also increase.

This paper presents evidence from the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) on the persistency of contributions to individual, private pensions. The BHPS contains a wealth of information on individuals' socio-economic and demographic characteristics, allowing detailed analysis of how individual circumstances – and changes in those circumstances – can affect whether or not someone continues to contribute. The paper finds variation in persistency rates by gender, earnings, and household income. As might be expected, changes in income and consumption needs (for example, becoming unemployed or the arrival of a new baby) increase the probability of lapse, but, conditional on these changes, the level of household income also matters, suggesting that pensions may be less affordable for those on low incomes, even in the absence of shocks.

This special issue on financial knowledge and retirement security builds on prior studies in this journal on the economic causes and consequences of financial literacy for retirement security.

The independence of outside directors is critical to corporate board effectiveness. We examine a unique period in corporate governance when outside directors' defined benefit pensions are replaced with increases in equity. Firms with pension plans significantly underperform their industry in terms of stock returns. Firms terminating the pension plans in exchange for equity have significant increases in stock returns relative to their industry subsequent to the change. All samples outperform the ROA and ROE industry medians both before and after the change in compensation, indicating pressure from organized investors likely comes from stock performance, not accounting performance. Investor rights pressure and outside director compensation and not takeover risk or institutional ownership best explain firms altering outside director compensation, with board of director effectiveness improving.

There is a potential conflict of interest between a pension fund sponsor and future pensioners when they share unequally in the pension fund performance. Thus, when a scheme offers a yearly guaranteed minimum return to pensioners, as is presently the case with German Pensionskassen, the sponsors cannot afford to invest in risky assets and consequently, pensioners end up with safe but very low expected returns. We examine optimal investment strategies for sponsors under alternative performance sharing rules and seek the rules that are most beneficial to pensioners. We find that the current yearly performance sharing rule imposed on Pensionskassen could be tilted in favor of sponsors without impairing the welfare of pensioners. We also find that the welfare of pensioners would be greatly enhanced if the guaranteed minimum return were applied to the cumulative return since inception of the scheme rather than to yearly returns. The ensuing credit risk taken by pensioners on sponsors could be kept to a minimum by proper regulation; this would induce sponsors to adopt safe constant proportionality portfolio insurance (CPPI) style investment strategies.

Future contributions to defined benefit pension plans are a significant cash flow item that can be difficult to estimate. Funding ratios – pension assets relative to pension liabilities – have long been considered important for estimating cash flows needed for current and future pension contributions (Ballester et al., 1998). However, US GAAP or IFRS funding ratios that companies report in their financial statements may differ from funding ratios used by pension regulators. These regulatory funding ratios may be more useful for predicting future contributions.

We investigate whether US regulatory and GAAP funding ratios are different and whether regulatory funding ratios provide useful information for predicting future contributions. For 3,877 firm years from 1995 through 2002, we observe that regulatory and GAAP funding ratios differ by more than 5% for 73% of our sample. We also find that predictions of future contributions are improved by using regulatory funding ratios in addition to GAAP funding ratios. Our results are relevant to accounting standard setters' ongoing review of pension accounting rules.

The COVID-19 pandemic triggered a large and immediate drop in employment among U.S. workers, along with major expansions of unemployment insurance (UI) and work from home. We use Current Population Survey and Social Security application data to study employment among older adults and their participation in disability and retirement insurance programs through the second year of the pandemic. We find ongoing improvements in employment outcomes among older workers in the labor force, along with sustained higher levels in the share no longer in the labor force during this period. Applications for Social Security disability benefits remain depressed, particularly for Supplemental Security Income. In models accounting for the expiration of expanded UI, we find some evidence that the loss of these additional financial supports resulted in an increase in disability claiming. Social Security retirement benefit claiming is approximately 3% higher during the second year of the pandemic.

This paper estimates the risks of financial distress in UK universities, and uses these estimates to examine the basis of the annual levies paid to the UK's Pension Protection Fund by the Universities Superannuation Scheme, a multi-employer scheme covering 391 universities and related institutions. The paper compares the payments between the two alternative participating arrangements for multi-employer pension schemes to the PPF, namely last-man-standing and segmented levies. Using an Ohlson (1980) logit model to predict the financial distress risk for HE institutions, we find that financially distressed institutions are smaller, with higher leverage and lower earnings. By comparing the implied financial distress probabilities from the PPF risk-based levy using USS accounts with the simulated probabilities using our logit model, we estimate whether USS levies are fairly priced. Our estimates suggest that in 2006/07 USS member institutions appeared to be paying less than the fair risk-based levy. However, this is because during the initial phase of the PPF the risk-based levies were much lower as a proportion of the total levy than the intended steady-state values. The implication is that if USS had paid the same total levy but where the risk-based component was four fifths of the total, then USS would have been paying substantially more than its fair risk-based levy. In addition, by looking at the distributions of individual university risk-based levies under a segmented PPF arrangement, we find evidence of significant cross-subsidies under the current last-man-standing levy between participating USS institutions.

Defined benefit pension plans are an important and unexplored aspect of not-for-profit compensation, covering between 15% and 21% of the estimated national not-for-profit workforce. Here we consider whether pension contributions and actuarial assumptions are mechanisms for achieving not-for-profit financial management objectives such as smoothing consumption, managing reported net earnings, and minimizing pension liabilities. The empirical results indicate a variety of these behaviors. Not-for-profit pension plan sponsors use accumulated net assets to smooth consumption. Further, not-for-profits manage reported profits downwards when they exceed expectations by increasing pension contributions, but both minimize contributions and liberalize actuarial assumptions when they underperform relative to their desired earnings targets.

We explore how the contract values of the various stakeholders of a typical US state civil servants pension fund are affected under the continuation of current policies and under alternative policies, such as changes in contribution, indexation and investment allocation policies. We find that all participant cohorts derive a substantial net benefit from the current pension contract, while all tax-paying cohorts make substantial contributions. The shift in value from tax payers to participants can be reduced substantially by having the latter make larger contributions or making indexation less generous. Under our baseline calibration, and continuation of existing policies, the chances are high that the fund's assets get depleted in the coming decades.

Over the past two decades, the share of individuals claiming Social Security at the Early Eligibility Age has dropped and the average retirement age has increased. At the same time, Social Security rules have changed substantially, employer-sponsored retirement plans have shifted from defined benefit (DB) to defined contribution (DC), health has improved, and mortality has decreased. In theory, all of these changes could lead to a trend toward later claiming. Disentangling the effect of any one change is difficult because they have been occurring simultaneously. This paper uses the Gustman and Steinmeier structural model of retirement timing to investigate which of these changes matter most by simulating their effects on the original cohort (1931–1941) of the Health and Retirement Study (HRS). The predicted behavior is then compared with the actual retirements of the Early Boomer cohort (1948–1953) to see how much of the later cohort's delayed claiming and retirement can be explained by these changes. The Early Boomer cohort was less likely to be fully retired than the HRS cohort at both age 62 (36.7% vs. 44.0%) and age 64 (49.5% vs. 53.9%). The model suggests that the shift from DB toward DC plans was the biggest contributor to these declines, followed by better health. Social Security rules and improvements in mortality played smaller roles.

Like in a number of other transition countries, the Croatian pension system comprises a traditional public pay-as-you-go scheme and a mandatory funded scheme (second pillar) that will provide increasing amounts of supplementary pensions to those entering retirement in the future. Due to the continuing economic crisis, the public scheme is currently under enormous financial strain, with a sizeable impact on central government finances. At the same time, the level of benefits deriving from the overall system is likely to become inadequately low in the long run. In this paper, we describe the existing system and project its future development under current rules. We also discuss options for further reforming the system and highlight their potential impact on pension finances, public budgets and retirement incomes, as this may provide lessons, which are of interest elsewhere.

The Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) is the defined contribution pension plan for the employees of the US Federal Government. It is also mentioned as a model to implement private investment accounts as part of US Social Security reform. The TSP has one unique investment opportunity – the Government Securities Investment Fund. This ‘G Fund’ is a short-term asset which pays long-term rates. This provides an implicit subsidy to federal employees. To collect this subsidy, however, employees must alter their portfolios. The subsidy may therefore be an inefficient means of compensating federal employees. Within a social security system, however, the G Fund would present the opportunity to partially ‘opt out’ of a private investment account.

This paper used a randomised field experiment to test if tailoring an email invitation induces pension scheme participants to delve into their online personal pension situation. Action perspective and degree of urgency conveyed in the invitation were tailored based on gender and age. Overall, our empirical findings show that such tailoring had no positive effects on (1) the probability that pension scheme participants click on the weblink to access information about their pension situation and (2) the probability to log in to a tool for pension check.

Companies that manage mandatory pension funds are frequently accused of excessive fee taking. International analyses have found that in countries with legal caps, commissions remain within these caps; hence, market competition does not function. Surprisingly, there are few international cases where local regulators implement mechanisms to facilitate competition. The variety of auction mechanisms available raises the question of whether an optimal solution exists for this purpose. Therefore, in this study, we present evidence, based on a controlled regulatory experiment, on the fee-reduction potential of reverse auctions.