The expansion of biogas production in Germany poses a challenge in terms of the production of substrates for co-fermentation and the efficient use of biogas residues as fertilizers. At present there is limited information on the fertilizer value of biogas residues from energy-cropping systems. A 2-year field experiment was conducted at two sites in northern Germany to quantify the yield, nitrogen (N) concentration and the N balance of maize (Zea mays L.) grown in different crop rotations: (i) maize monoculture (R1), (ii) maize – whole-crop wheat followed by Italian ryegrass as catch crop (R2) and (iii) maize – grain wheat followed by mustard as catch crop (R3). Crops were fertilized with different levels of biogas residues, cattle slurry, pig slurry, or mineral N fertilizer, which allowed quantification of the apparent N recovery (ANR) of the fertilizer types tested. The results revealed that crop rotation in interaction with N amount had a pronounced effect on the yield of maize. Maximum yield of 19·1 t dry matter (DM)/ha, corresponding to biogas production of 6685 m3N CH4/ha, was achieved in maize monoculture on a sandy loam site. Maize grown in R3 showed the lowest N response but had the highest yield under low N supply, whereas R2 generally had the lowest yield and N content. Differences in yield performance were reflected in the N balances, differing by 50 kg N/ha between R1 and R2, whereas R3 produced the lowest yield at low N supply. The carry-over effects from the preceding catch crops in R2 and R3, however, reduce the meaningfulness of the simple N balance. Nitrogen fertilizer type showed no interaction with crop rotation. Biogas residue application resulted in similar maize yielding performance to pig slurry and cattle slurry. However, relative N fertilizer value (RNFV) was 30% higher for biogas residue at optimal N supply, i.e. the minimum N input to achieve maximum DM yield.

One of the main problems in estimating the effects of climate change on crops is the identification of those factors limiting crop growth in a selected environment. Previous studies have indicated that considering simple trends of either precipitation or temperature for the coming decades is insufficient for estimating the climate impact on yield in the future. One reason for this insufficiency is that changes in weather extremes or seasonal weather patterns may have marked impacts.

The present study focuses on identifying agroclimatic parameters that can identify the effects of climate change and variability on winter wheat yield change in the Pannonian lowland. The impacts of soil type under past and future climates as well as the effect of different CO2 concentrations on yield formation are also considered. The Vojvodina region was chosen for this case study because it is a representative part of the Pannonian lowland.

Projections of the future climate were taken from the HadCM3, ECHAM5 and NCAR-PCM climate models with the SRES-A2 scenario for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for the 2040 and 2080 integration periods. To calibrate and validate the Met&Roll weather generator, four-variable weather data series (for six main climatic stations in the Vojvodina region) were analysed. The grain yield of winter wheat was calculated using the SIRIUS wheat model for three different CO2 concentrations (330, 550 and 1050 ppm) dependent on the integration period. To estimate the effects of climatic parameters on crop yield, the correlation coefficient between crop yield and agroclimatic indices was calculated using the AGRICLIM software. The present study shows that for all soil types, the following indices are the most important for winter wheat yields in this region: (i) the number of days with water and temperature stress, (ii) the accumulated precipitation, (iii) the actual evapotranspiration (ETa) and (iv) the water deficit during the growing season. The high positive correlations between yield and the ETa, accumulated precipitation and the ratio between the ETa and reference evapotranspiration (ETr) for the April–June period indicate that water is and will remain a major limiting factor for growing winter wheat in this region. Indices referring to negative impact on yield are (i) the number of days with a water deficit for the April–June period and (ii) the number of days with maximum temperature above 25 °C (summer days) and the number of days with maximum temperature above 30 °C (tropical days) in May and June. These indices can be seen as indicators of extreme weather events such as drought and heat waves.

The present study compared slug, earthworm and carabid beetle abundance and slug damage to plants in minimum tillage (MT) and conventional tillage (CT) autumn-sown cereals. Winter barley was sown by CT and MT for 3 years followed by winter wheat for 6 years on a light-textured soil (Trial 1). Each cultivation was split so that straw was incorporated into the soil during cultivation in one split while the other did not receive straw. A similar investigation with winter wheat, over the same period, was undertaken on a nearby heavy-textured soil (Trial 2). The effects of method of cultivation and soil incorporation of straw on slug abundance and damage, and on earthworm populations were measured. Additionally, at Trial 1, the effects of cultivation and straw treatments on carabid beetle occurrence were measured in years 5–9. Over the 9 years, the method of cultivation had a significant effect on slug numbers in each trial. Slugs were more numerous in MT than CT plots, significantly so in 3 of the 9 years in Trial 1 and in 5 years in Trial 2. In Trial 1, slug numbers were significantly greater on no-straw than straw plots in 3 years as well as for the 9 years combined. Slug numbers did not differ between straw and no-straw plots in Trial 2. Slug numbers varied significantly between years and were influenced by factors other than the method of cultivation and straw application. Slug damage to seed and seedlings was quite low in each year (1–2%). Slug damage to cereal leaves at GS 23 was widespread in both trials, and severe in some years. MT had more leaf damage than CT in 5 of the 9 years in each trial, significantly so in 3 years in Trial 1 and in 4 years in Trial 2. Straw did not affect leaf damage in either MT or CT. Slug damage was not related to, nor did it affect either ear density or grain yield. The dominant slug species was Deroceras reticulatum. Earthworm numbers were significantly greater in MT than CT, for combined years, in each trial. Annually, these differences were significant for 5 years in Trial 1 and 2 years in Trial 2. Straw plots had significantly more earthworms than no-straw, for combined years, in each trial. The latter differences were significant for 5 years in Trial 1 and 3 years in Trial 2. In MT, the positive effect of straw on earthworm numbers was significant in Trial 2 but not in Trial 1. In CT, the latter effect was significant in each trial. Lumbricus species were more numerous in MT than CT and in straw than no-straw treatments. The impact of cultivation on numbers of carabid beetles was species-specific. The large beetle, Pterostichus melanarius, was significantly more numerous in MT than CT in 2 of the 5 years and for the aggregate of 5 years. Small carabids (Bembidion species and Trechus quadristriatus) were significantly more abundant in CT than MT in 3 of the 5 years as well as for the aggregate of 5 years. Straw did not affect the number of any or all carabid species either for combined cultivations (MT + CT) or within either MT or CT. It is concluded that MT increases slug numbers, slug damage and earthworm numbers relative to CT cultivations. MT favours large carabid beetles and CT favours small beetles. Straw incorporation increases earthworm numbers but not slugs, slug damage or carabid beetles. Slug damage to cereal leaves does not affect ear density or grain yield in either MT or CT crops when sown to a depth of 40 mm and before 18 September.

Crop-based protein self-sufficiency in Finland is low. Cereals dominate the field cropping systems in areas that are also favourable for legumes and rapeseed. The present paper estimated the realistic potential for expanding protein crop production taking account of climatic conditions and constraints, crop rotation requirements, field sizes, soil types and likelihood for compacted soils in different regions. The potential for current expansion was estimated by considering climate change scenarios for 2025 and 2055. By using actual regional mean yields for the 2000s, without expecting any yield increase during the expansion period (due to higher risks of pests and diseases), potential production volumes were estimated. Since rapeseed, unlike grain legumes, is a not a true minor crop, its expansion potential is currently limited. Thus, most potential is from the introduction of legumes into cropping systems. The current 100000 ha of protein crops could be doubled, and areas under cultivation could reach 350000 and 390000 ha as a result of climate warming by 2025 and 2055, respectively. Such increases result mainly from the longer growing seasons projected for the northern cropping regions of Finland. Self-sufficiency in rapeseed could soon increase from 0·25 to 0·32, and then to 0·50 and 0·60 by 2025 and 2055, respectively. If legume production expands according to its potential, it could replace 0·50–0·60 of currently imported soybean meal, and by 2025 it could replace it completely. Replacement of soybean meal is suitable for ruminants, but it presents some problems for pig production, and is particularly challenging for poultry.

23 January 2012 marked 70 years since the death of the Italian plant breeder Nazareno Strampelli (1866–1942), one of the most important plant geneticists of the 20th century. During the first 30 years of what is known as the ‘short century’, Strampelli was among the first, in Europe and in the world, to systematically apply Mendel's laws to plant breeding, particularly to wheat breeding which resulted in varieties characterized by rust resistance, early flowering and maturity and short straw. Due to Strampelli's varieties Italian wheat production doubled, an achievement that during the fascist regime was referred to as the ‘Wheat Battle’.

Some of Strampelli's wheats, such as Mentana, Ardito and San Pastore, were used as parents in the breeding programmes of several countries after the Second World War; they also had a key role in the first phase of Norman Borlaug's Green Revolution, being instrumental in the development of the high-yielding varieties of the future Nobel Peace Laureate.

A century after the key cross in which Strampelli, 30 years before Borlaug, used the genes for short straw and earliness in wheat breeding, his name and his work are not known and appreciated as they deserve, despite the recent evidence that the resistance to the new rust races could derive from the very same resistance genes identified by the Italian breeder at the beginning of the 20th century.

Successful crop production depends initially on the availability of high-quality seed. By 2050 global climate change will have influenced crop yields, but will these changes affect seed quality? The present review examines the effects of elevated carbon dioxide (CO2) and temperature during seed production on three seed quality components: seed mass, germination and seed vigour.

In response to elevated CO2, seed mass has been reported to both increase and decrease in C3 plants, but not change in C4 plants. Increases are greater in legumes than non-legumes, and there is considerable variation among species. Seed mass increases may result in a decrease of seed nitrogen (N) concentration in non-legumes. Increasing temperature may decrease seed mass because of an accelerated growth rate and reduced seed filling duration, but lower seed mass does not necessarily reduce seed germination or vigour.

Like seed mass, reported seed germination responses to elevated CO2 have been variable. The reported changes in seed C/N ratio can decrease seed protein content which may eventually lead to reduced viability. Conversely, increased ethylene production may stimulate germination in some species. High-temperature stress before developing seeds reach physiological maturity (PM) can reduce germination by inhibiting the ability of the plant to supply the assimilates necessary to synthesize the storage compounds required for germination.

Nothing is known concerning the effects of elevated CO2 on seed vigour. However, seed vigour can be reduced by high-temperature stress both before and after PM. High temperatures induce or increase the physiological deterioration of seeds. Limited evidence suggests that only short periods of high-temperature stress at critical seed development stages are required to reduce seed vigour, but further research is required.

The predicted environmental changes will lead to losses of seed quality, particularly for seed vigour and possibly germination. The seed industry will need to consider management changes to minimize the risk of this occurring.

The present paper presents a meta-analysis of the economic and agronomic performance of genetically modified (GM) crops worldwide. Bayesian, classical and non-parametric approaches were used to evaluate the performance of GM crops v. their conventional counterparts. The two main GM crop traits (herbicide tolerant (HT) and insect resistant (Bt)) and three of the main GM crops produced worldwide (Bt cotton, HT soybean and Bt maize) were analysed in terms of yield, production cost and gross margin. The scope of the analysis covers developing and developed countries, six world regions, and all countries combined. Results from the statistical analyses indicate that GM crops perform better than their conventional counterparts in agronomic and economic (gross margin) terms. Regarding countries’ level of development, GM crops tend to perform better in developing countries than in developed countries, with Bt cotton being the most profitable crop grown.

Wheat grain yield is often associated with grain number/m2. Spike fertility (SF), i.e. the quotient between grain number and spike chaff dry weight, is a major component of grain number/m2 determination. Several methodologies have been proposed in the literature for field determination of SF, but they are tedious and expensive. Also, no comparison between methodologies has been done. The feasibility of using wheat SF as a selection criterion in a breeding programme or as a variable of interest in crop physiology studies depends largely upon the availability of a simpler and faster method for collecting and processing samples. Thus, the objective of the present study was to determine: (1) the association between SF calculated with the non-grain spike dry weight at anthesis (reference method) or at crop maturity, (2) the association between SF evaluated at the plot level (i.e. both non-grain spike dry weight and grain number determined as per area unit) and at the individual spike level and (3) the minimum number of individual spikes that should be sampled for the development of a screening method that can be applied in wheat breeding programmes or in crop physiology studies. Associations between variables were determined by correlation analysis of treatment means, and by a test of agreement for categorical rating (low, medium and high SF) between individual data of each variable. Four experiments (BY95, BC96, BC97 and ML07) were performed with five, ten, eight and eight wheat cultivars, respectively, under no environmental limitations, except for experiment ML07 which was not irrigated. In the first three experiments, SF was determined both at the beginning of grain filling and at maturity, in plot-size samples (0·8 m2/plot). In experiments BC96 and BC97, SF was determined both in plot-size samples and in individual spikes (five spikes per plot), at the beginning of grain filling. In experiment ML07, increasing numbers of individual spikes were sampled at maturity to assess SF. As a result: (1) a significant association (R2=0·78; P<0·001; d.f.=20) was detected between SF determined at the beginning of grain filling and at maturity, and the test of agreement for categorical rating showed that the classification of data into categories of SF was equivalent between methods (P>0·05); (2) when comparing SF determined in large plot-size samples v. in small samples of individual spikes, a good adjustment (R2=0·77; P<0·001; d.f.=6) was also observed, with no significant cultivar×experiment interaction and a good agreement between methods in the classification of data into categories of SF (P>0·05); and (3) increasing sample size from 5 to 40 spikes gradually decreased the average relative standard error of the mean (from 0·034 to 0·012, respectively). In conclusion, wheat SF can be determined in a fairly accurate way by sampling a small group of individual spikes at crop maturity, thereby allowing the evaluation of a large number of treatments in a timely fashion and the screening of breeding material from early generations.

The requirement for inorganic fertilizer nitrogen (N) by winter wheat crops in the United Kingdom is derived using the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) Fertilizer Manual. In the experimental programme described and discussed in the present paper, the appropriateness of these recommendations for winter wheat grown in Northern Ireland is examined.

Yield response to N varied in experiments conducted on two winter wheat cultivars (cvars) in Northern Ireland from 2007 to 2009. Consequently the optimum N rate (Nopt, defined as the rate of applied N where the value of the increase in yield equals the cost of the increment in fertilizer applied and beyond which additional N would not repay its cost) also varied from year to year. The band of fertilizer N rates over which margins were reduced by £20 (GBP) and £50 also varied from year to year. Changes in the N:grain price ratio affected Nopt to differing extents in the three experiments depending on the shape of the yield v. N response.

Nopt should therefore be considered as a range of N rates because (1) it varies from year to year and probably also field to field and (2) the margin of income from grain over cost of fertilizer varies little over a range of N rates because of the shape of the asymptotic response of yield to N. Alternatively, in high rainfall areas (annual rainfall >700 mm) of England, Wales and Northern Ireland, where Table C of the Fertilizer Manual (formerly RB 209) is used to determine soil nitrogen supply (SNS) index, a single N rate could be adopted at SNS indices of 2 or less (equating to soil N supplies of 100 kg/ha or less). A rate of 240 kg N/ha could be adopted based on the over-years function fitted to all results in the three experiments reported in the present paper and including treatments that vary in the splitting of N applied between the two applications and in their timing.

Grain N concentration rarely exceeded the guideline 19 mg/g for feed wheat crops identified in the Fertilizer Manual (Anon. 2010). Overall, N taken up by the crops was used efficiently, and particularly so at lower N rates. However, at low fertilizer N rates the contribution from ‘free’ soil N inflates the ‘apparent’ value of grain yield produced. The responses of yield and grain N concentration to N show that crop processes work to maximize yield at the expense of N concentration in the grain. Therefore there is less need to be concerned about identifying the optimum N rate and predicting fertilizer N requirement with a high degree of precision. Instead growers could assess and adjust the efficiency of their N use based on grain N concentration generally, rather than specifically assess whether their fertilizer N applications were close to Nopt. Essentially as grain N concentration increases, yield/kg of applied fertilizer N decreases. Thus at low grain N concentrations, yield could be increased by increasing N applications and at high grain N concentrations yield could be maintained and profitability increased by reducing N applications.

Current agricultural practices rely on crops with developmental phenologies adapted to local climate, photoperiods and soils; however, global climate change will alter some abiotic factors (e.g. temperature and precipitation). Previously adapted varieties may be poorly prepared for these changing conditions, if such conditions induce mismatched phenologies. Crops that depend on cross-pollination and synchronous flowering may be most susceptible, e.g. monoecious plants have separate male and female flowers, and changes in flowering synchrony may alter yield. Using genetically diverse (open-pollinated (OP)) and genetically homogeneous (hybrid) varieties of a monoecious crop, courgette, also known as zuchinni (Cucurbita pepo), phenological responses to experimentally manipulated moisture conditions were explored in an agricultural context. Under drier and wetter conditions, the hybrid courgette plants shifted towards a male-biased floral sex ratio due to the reduced production of female flowers. However, flowering synchrony and fruit production were unaffected by moisture treatment in both varieties. The hybrid and OP varieties differed in many traits related to floral sex ratios, phenology, synchrony and fruit production. Further, the OP variety displayed more phenotypic variation than the hybrid in many traits. Being in a population context rather than relying on self-pollination increased the availability of potential mates for a given female flower in both the hybrid and, particularly, the OP variety. Thus, the increased genetic diversity found in OP v. hybrid varieties may buffer the possible environmental effects on flowering synchrony within a cropping context. Finally, the likelihood of female flowers setting fruit increased with the number of male flowers within a population, and the rate of increase was higher in the hybrid variety. In summary, climate change is predicted to reduce investment in female function in some monoecious crops and genetically diverse varieties may play an important role in maintaining reproductive synchrony in altered environments.

Recent trends in climate change resulting in global warming and extreme dry spells during rainy seasons are having a negative impact on grain and fodder production in rain-fed crops in India. Understanding the mechanisms of drought tolerance at various growth stages will help in developing tolerant genotypes. Crosses were made between elite and drought-tolerant sorghums, and F2 and F3 progenies were evaluated for drought tolerance in multiple locations. Twenty-five F4/F5 derivatives along with drought-tolerant check plants (two high-yielding genotypes showing moderate drought tolerance: C43 (male parent of the commercial hybrid CSH 16, tolerant to drought) and CSV 17, (a pure line commercial cultivar released for drought-prone areas) were screened for drought tolerance under a factorial randomized block design with three replications during the rain-free months of April–June in 2007 and 2008 at Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Kovilpatti, India. In each generation/year, four trials were conducted and water stress at different phases of crop growth, viz. vegetative, flowering and post-flowering (maturity), was imposed by withholding irrigation. Observations were recorded on grain and straw yields, plant height, number of roots, root length, leaf relative water content (LRWC), chlorophyll content and stomatal conductance under all treatments. The traits, grain yield, plant height, average root length and stomatal conductance showed significant mean sums of squares (SSs) for genotype × environment (G × E), suggesting that genotypes had significant differential response to the changing environments. Significant mean SSs due to G × E (linear) were obtained for straw yield, LRWC and chlorophyll content, indicating that the variability is partly genetic and partly influenced by environment. Grain yield was correlated with chlorophyll content (r = 0·43) at the vegetative stage, with number of roots (r = 0·49), LRWC (r = 0·51), chlorophyll content (r = 0·46) and stomatal conductance (r = −0·51) at the pre-flowering stage, and with LRWC (r = 0·50) and stomatal conductance (r = −0·40) at the post-flowering stage, under water stress. Partial least square (PLS) analysis showed that different traits were important for grain yield under water stress at different growth stages. Pyramiding the genes for the traits responsible for high grain yield under stress will help in developing stable genotypes at different stages of plant growth.

Perennial ryegrass evaluation schemes categorize varieties into three maturity (early, intermediate and late) and two ploidy (diploid and tetraploid) groups, and compare the relative yield, persistence and nutritive quality of varieties within these groups. The present study compared these groups for herbage yield, dry matter (DM) concentration and, using near infrared reflectance spectroscopy (NIRS), four quality characteristics (in vitro content of digestible dry matter (CDDM), water-soluble carbohydrate (WSC) and crude protein (CP) concentrations, and buffering capacity). A total of 1208 plots were sown across 5 years in Irish Recommended List trials and then harvested 6–7 times in each of 2 harvest years. This also allowed an assessment of the effect of sward age. Maturity group had no significant effect on annual herbage yield, quality or DM concentration except for in vitro CDDM (P<0·01) but differed significantly for in vitro CDDM (P<0·01), WSC concentration (P<0·01) and buffering capacity (P<0·05) at the first silage harvest. Tetraploid swards had greater annual herbage yields (P<0·001), in vitro CDDM values (P<0·001) and WSC concentrations (P<0·01), but lower CP and DM concentrations (P<0·001) than diploids. Swards in their first full year produced an additional 5·17 t/ha DM (P<0·001) and had a higher (P<0·01) WSC concentration at the second silage harvest than in their second year, but did not differ significantly for in vitro CDDM and WSC, CP or DM concentrations. The present study showed that differences exist in yield, nutritive quality and ensilability indices between maturity and ploidy groups. These observations justify their assessment in variety comparative trials and facilitates particular groups being selected for individual farming systems to increase efficiency.

Monitoring ammonia (NH3) emission is time consuming and requires specialized measurement equipment. The measurement time can be reduced if there is a close relationship between time and subsequent cumulated NH3 emission values. A statistical analysis was employed to study the relationship between cumulative NH3 emissions over varying time intervals and final NH3 loss after 3 days of measurement. A large number of multi-plot field experiments on NH3 loss after the application of animal and biogas slurries by trail hoses to crops in Northern Germany were carried out from 2007 to 2010. Based on data from 2007, measured using a passive sampler method, a linear empirical model was developed to calculate final cumulated NH3 loss from intermediate cumulated losses. Linear model fitting showed that cumulative NH3 losses after 24 h were significantly correlated with final cumulated NH3 losses, explaining more than 0·98 of its variation. The linear coefficient was 1·34, implying that c. 0·73 of final NH3 loss occurred within the first 24 h. Validation by datasets obtained from another year (2008), two additional measurement methods and another agro-region (marsh area, 2009/10) resulted in a close agreement of model predictions with measured data within the range of model uncertainty and data variation. The results underpin the feasibility of calculating final NH3 losses from cumulative losses during first 24 h after slurry application and can be used to simplify NH3 loss measurement after the application of liquid slurries in multi-plot field experiments. The slope of the linear relationship is only valid for liquid slurries and the environmental conditions of the present study, which are typical for many agro-regions in north-western Europe, and will have to be adapted for different climatic conditions. A time-efficient measurement of emissions from solid organic fertilizers might require a different time span.

The quality of seed is dependent on two very broad aspects: how healthy (disease-free) a seed is and its field performance (germination and vigour). The objective of the present study was to evaluate the effect of pesticidal seed treatments of maize (Zea mays L.) on seed germination and vigour, and on greenhouse emergence in the presence of Fusarium graminearum Schw. Maize seeds were treated with four pesticides: Apron® XL (metalaxyl), Thiram (thiram), Celest® XL (fludioxonil, metalaxyl) and Apron® Star 42 WS (thiamethoxam, metalaxyl, difenoconazole). Viability and vigour of the treated seeds were determined. Thereafter, seeds were planted under greenhouse conditions. The control consisted of water-treated seeds. None of the pesticides reduced the standard germination under laboratory conditions and none had any effect on the quantity of leachate (measured as conductivity) or moisture content of the seeds. The different treatments also had no effect on germination or on seedling weight increase among treatments after rapid imbibition and there was no difference in germination among treatments following the cold test. The proportion of diseased plants harvested from F. graminearum inoculated soil was significantly reduced by Apron® Star 42 WS and Celest® XL. The vigour tests indicated that none of the pesticides tested affected the seeds negatively and that plant biomass in the presence of the pathogen, F. graminearum, was increased after the application of the pesticides to the seeds, with the exception of seeds treated with Apron® XL.

The present study investigates regional climate change impacts on agricultural crop production in Central and Eastern Europe, including local case studies with different focuses in Austria, the Czech Republic and Slovakia. The area studied experiences a continental European climate and is characterized by strong climatic gradients, which may foster regional differences or trends in the impacts of climate change on agriculture. To study the regional aspects and variabilities of climate change impacts on agriculture, the effect of climate change on selected future agroclimatic conditions, crop yield and variability (including the effect of higher ambient CO2 concentrations) and the most important yield limiting factors, such as water availability, nitrogen balance and the infestation risks posed by selected pests were studied. In general, the results predicted significant agroclimatic changes over the entire area during the 21st century, affecting agricultural crop production through various pathways. Simulated crop yield trends confirmed past regional studies but also revealed that yield-limiting factors may change from region to region. For example, pest pressures, as demonstrated by examining two pests, are likely to increase due to warmer conditions. In general, higher potentials for cereal yield increase are seen for wetter and cooler regions (i.e. uplands) than for the drier and warmer lowlands, where yield potentials will be increasingly limited by decreasing crop water availability and heat under most scenarios. In addition, yield variability will increase during the coming decades, but this may decrease towards the end of the 21st century. The present study contributes to the interpretation of previously conducted climate change impact and adaptation studies for agriculture and may prove useful in proposing future research in this field.

Powdery mildew is one of the most important vineyard diseases. Infection requires the interaction of a susceptible host (a vine in a phenological phase susceptible to the pathogen), a virulent pathogen (the fungus Uncinula necator (Schw.) Burr) and an environment favourable for disease development (optimal meteorological conditions). The aim of the present study was the implementation of a system to predict powdery mildew infection periods in order to optimize and reduce the application of pesticide treatments in a vineyard. The study was conducted in a vineyard of the ‘Ribeiro’ Designation of Origin region located in north-western Spain from 2006 to 2011, during the Vitis vegetative period. The phenological study was conducted following the BBCH phenological scale and infection risk index (IRI) was calculated based on the maximum temperature. Aerobiological sampling was performed using a LANZONI VPPS-2000 volumetric trap. The results of the study show that the critical phenological stages for powdery mildew infection are 5 (inflorescence emergence), 6 (flowering) and 7 (development of fruit), as consequence of the high susceptibility of the vine. The IRI allows determination of the periods in which the meteorological conditions could facilitate fungal attacks during the aforementioned phenological phases. Finally, the aerobiological model helps to identify and predict the times of real infection risk among the possible periods described by the IRI with high accuracy, in order to avoid possible reappearance of infection symptoms in the vine. The combination of these three variables provides a valuable tool to establish an accurate, modern, integrated pest-management strategy in a vineyard.

Climate change biology is witnessing a significant quantity of new publications each year, which compromises efforts to keep up-to-date on the rapidly growing body of climate change biology literature. The present paper provides an overview on research approaches and challenges in climate change biology with respect to plant pathogens, insect pests and weeds (collectively termed ‘pests’ here). It also summarizes the suggestions of researchers about how to conceptualize and prioritize future research strategies. Recently published key studies demonstrate that climate change research is qualitatively advancing and that the interactions among environmental and biotic factors which have been found are complex. This complexity hinders attempts to generalize responses of pests to changes in climate. The challenge remains to identify the most significant causal relationships and to separate them from other factors such as crop management practices, which may also influence the observed changes in pest distribution and prevalence in managed ecosystems. In addition, the present overview shows that there are still gaps in many research areas, while other fields have been intensively investigated. For example, the identification of potential benefits in plant protection that may emerge from future climate change has not been explored as extensively as the potential threats. However, encouraging developments can be observed in recent climate change research, for instance the increased number of studies performed under subtropical and tropical climatic conditions, the increased availability of results from multi-factorial field experiments and modelling studies do consider increasingly pest–crop–climate interactions. Further progress can be expected, provided that researchers, sponsors and other stakeholders maintain their interest in climate change biology research.

The aim of the present investigation was to evaluate the antifungal activities of plant extracts which can be used to control bean and cowpea anthracnose. Acetone, ethyl acetate and water extracts of Ipomoea batatas, Carica papaya, Allium sativum, Syzygium cordatum, Chlorophytum comosum and Agapanthus caulescens were screened in vitro for their antifungal activities against Colletotrichum lindemuthianum and Colletotrichum dematium of common bean and cowpea using the agar disc infusion and microtitre double-dilution techniques. The same extracts were then tested for antifungal activity in vivo as seed treatments against anthracnose disease. The water extracts of Carica and Syzygium were active against C. lindemuthianum and had minimum inhibitory concentrations (MICs) of 1·56 mg/ml. Syzygium, Allium and Chlorophytum water extracts were active against C. dematium and MICs were 3·13, 6·25 and 12·5 mg/ml, respectively. The MICs of Allium, Syzygium and Agapanthus acetone extracts were 0·78, 3·13 and 6·25 mg/ml, respectively, against C. lindemuthianum and 0·78, 6·25 and 3·13 mg/ml against C. dematium. Agapanthus water extracts and all the acetone extracts tested in vivo effectively reduced the incidence and severity of bean anthracnose disease in the greenhouse. Agapanthus acetone, Allium water, and both acetone and water extracts of Carica and Syzygium performed well in vivo in reducing cowpea anthracnose disease and compared well with reductions due to the application of the synthetic fungicide fludioxonil+mefenoxam (the commercial product Celest® XL) applied at 25 gai/l and also with levels in the non-inoculated control. The Agapanthus, Carica, Syzygium and Allium extracts were active on both Colletotrichum spp. in vitro and also reduced anthracnose disease of bean and cowpea and are potential seed treatments in anthracnose disease control. The easy seed treatment process and the accessibility of plants used in the present study could lead to high adoption of the use of the plant extracts as seed treatments by resource-poor, smallholder farmers.

The objective of the present study was to compare the performance of seven different, widely applied crop models in predicting heat and drought stress effects. The study was part of a recent suite of model inter-comparisons initiated at European level and constitutes a component that has been lacking in the analysis of sources of uncertainties in crop models used to study the impacts of climate change. There was a specific focus on the sensitivity of models for winter wheat and maize to extreme weather conditions (heat and drought) during the short but critical period of 2 weeks after the start of flowering. Two locations in Austria, representing different agro-climatic zones and soil conditions, were included in the simulations over 2 years, 2003 and 2004, exhibiting contrasting weather conditions. In addition, soil management was modified at both sites by following either ploughing or minimum tillage. Since no comprehensive field experimental data sets were available, a relative comparison of simulated grain yields and soil moisture contents under defined weather scenarios with modified temperatures and precipitation was performed for a 2-week period after flowering. The results may help to reduce the uncertainty of simulated crop yields to extreme weather conditions through better understanding of the models’ behaviour. Although the crop models considered (DSSAT, EPIC, WOFOST, AQUACROP, FASSET, HERMES and CROPSYST) mostly showed similar trends in simulated grain yields for the different weather scenarios, it was obvious that heat and drought stress caused by changes in temperature and/or precipitation for a short period of 2 weeks resulted in different grain yields simulated by different models. The present study also revealed that the models responded differently to changes in soil tillage practices, which affected soil water storage capacity.