The objective of this study was to estimate the relationship between serum vitamin D (VitD) status and tuberculosis (TB) infection conversion (TBIC), measured by the tuberculin skin test (TST) and an interferon-gamma release assay, the QuantiFERON-TB Gold In-Tube (QFT-GIT) test, in the contacts of pulmonary TB patients in Castellon (Spain) in a prospective cohort study from 2010 to 2012. Initially, the participants were negative to latent TB infection after a screening that included TST and QFT-GIT tests, and other examinations. A baseline determination of 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] was obtained by chemiluminescence immunoassay. After 8–10 weeks, participants were screened for a second time to determine TB infection conversion (TBIC). Poisson regression models were used in the statistical analysis. Of the 247 participants in the cohort, 198 (80·2%) were screened twice and 18 (9·1%) were TBIC cases. The means of VitD concentration in the TBIC cases and the non-cases were 20·7±11·9 and 27·2±11·4 ng/ml (P = 0·028), respectively. Adjusted for high exposure and TB sputum acid-fast bacilli (AFB)-positive index case, higher serum VitD concentration was associated with low incidence of TBIC (Ptrend = 0·005), and an increase of 1 ng/ml VitD concentration decreased the incidence of TBIC by 6% (relative risk 0·94, 95% confidence interval 0·90–0·99, P = 0·015). The results suggest that sufficient VitD level could be a protective factor of TBIC.

We investigated the effect of climatic, demographic factors and intra-country geographical variations on the incidence of invasive meningococcal disease (IMD) in Italy. For this purpose, incidence rates of IMD cases reported in Italy between 1994 and 2012 were calculated, and a cluster analysis was performed. A geographical gradient was determined, with lower incidence rates in central and southern Italy, compared to the northern parts, where most clusters were observed. IMD rates were higher in medium-sized towns than in villages. Adults were at lower risk of IMD than children aged ⩽4 years. IMD incidence tended to decrease with increasing monthly mean temperatures (incidence rate ratio 0·94, 95% confidence interval 0·90–0·99). In conclusion, geographical variations in IMD incidence were found, where age and temperature were associated with disease occurrence. Whether geographical variations should be considered in national intervention plans is still a matter for discussion.

A longitudinal study of nasal colonization and hand contamination of food handlers with Staphylococcus aureus commenced in 2002 prior to the outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome. In the follow-up in 2003 when hygiene measures were strictly implemented, significant reductions in carriage were observed. To investigate if this change was sustained, nasal and hand carriage rates were compared between the earlier studies and a further sampling in 2011. The initial nasal carriage rate was 35% and hand contamination 41·2%, decreasing to 23·5% and 11·6%, respectively in 2003 (P < 0·001). In 2011, nasal carriage was similar to 2003 (22·9%), while hand contamination dropped further to 3·7% (P < 0·001). Spa-typing revealed 39 types in 2002 and 42 in 2011. This study reveals that the marked reduction in colonization had been sustained. This may be attributed to reduced opportunities for spread due to enhanced hygiene and reinforces its importance for control of disease.

An outbreak of leptospirosis occurred in the South of Belgium, during August 2012, in teenagers who participated in two consecutive adventure scout camps near the Semois river. Among the symptomatic patient population (ten scouts), clinical manifestations included headache (70%), myalgia (50%), fever (50%), bilateral conjunctival injection (50%), general malaise (30%), vomiting (20%), anorexia (20%) and cough (20%). Some of the cases presented elevated blood creatinine (40%), or proteinuria (30%). Three patients were confirmed by serology and one by polymerase chain reaction. Potential risk factors included direct contact with a muskrat and indirect contact with potentially contaminated environments including the river water. Prospective environmental investigation carried out near the river banks 2 weeks after the outbreak identified Ondatra zibethicus (muskrat) as one Leptospira sp. reservoir.

The role that animals play in the transmission of Schistosoma japonicum to humans in the Philippines remains uncertain and prior studies have not included several species, adjustment for misclassification error and clustering, or used a cohort design. A cohort study of 2468 people providing stool samples at 12 months following praziquantel treatment in 50 villages of Western Samar, the Philippines, was conducted. Stool samples from dogs, cats, rats, and water buffaloes were collected at baseline (2003–2004) and follow-up (2005). Latent-class hierarchical Bayesian log-binomial models adjusting for misclassification errors in diagnostic tests were used. The village-level baseline and follow-up prevalences of cat, dog, and rat S. japonicum infection were associated with the 12-month cumulative incidence of human S. japonicum infection, with similar magnitude and precision of effect, but correlation between infection levels made it difficult to divide their respective effects. The cumulative incidence ratios associated with a 1% increase in the prevalence of infection in dogs at baseline and in rats at follow-up were 1·04 [95% Bayesian credible interval (BCI) 1·02–1·07] and 1·02 (95% BCI 1·01–1·04), respectively, when both species were entered in the model. Dogs appear to play a role in human schistosomiasis infection while rats could be used as schistosomiasis sentinels.

The search for an association between disease incidence and possible risk factors using surveillance data needs to account for possible spatial and temporal correlations in underlying risk. This can be especially difficult if there are missing values for some important covariates. We present a case study to show how this problem can be overcome in a Bayesian analysis framework by adding to the usual spatio-temporal model a component for modelling the missing data.