If the world can successfully control all outbreaks of circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus that may occur soon after global oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) cessation, then immunodeficiency-associated vaccine-derived polioviruses (iVDPVs) from rare and mostly asymptomatic long-term excretors (defined as ⩾6 months of excretion) will become the main source of potential poliovirus outbreaks for as long as iVDPV excretion continues. Using existing models of global iVDPV prevalence and global long-term poliovirus risk management, we explore the implications of uncertainties related to iVDPV risks, including the ability to identify asymptomatic iVDPV excretors to treat with polio antiviral drugs (PAVDs) and the transmissibility of iVDPVs. The expected benefits of expanded screening to identify and treat long-term iVDPV excretors with PAVDs range from US$0.7 to 1.5 billion with the identification of 25–90% of asymptomatic long-term iVDPV excretors, respectively. However, these estimates depend strongly on assumptions about the transmissibility of iVDPVs and model inputs affecting the global iVDPV prevalence. For example, the expected benefits may decrease to as low as US$260 million with the identification of 90% of asymptomatic iVDPV excretors if iVDPVs behave and transmit like partially reverted viruses instead of fully reverted viruses. Comprehensive screening for iVDPVs will reduce uncertainties and maximize the expected benefits of PAVD use.

Measles was eliminated in the Americas in 2002 by a combination of routine immunizations and supplementary immunization activities. Recent outbreaks underscore the importance of reconsidering vaccine policy in order to maintain elimination. We constructed an age-structured dynamical model for the distribution of immunity in a population with routine immunization and without disease, and analysed the steady state for an idealized age structure and for real age structures of countries in the Americas. We compared the level of immunity maintained by current policy in these countries to the level maintainable by an optimal policy. The optimal age target for the first routine dose of measles vaccine depends on the timing and coverage of both doses. Similarly, the optimal age target for the second dose of measles vaccine depends on the timing and coverage of the first dose. The age targets for the first and second doses of measles vaccine should be adjusted for the post-elimination era, by specifically accounting for current context, including realized coverage of both doses, and altered maternal immunity. Doing so can greatly improve the proportion immune within a population, and therefore the chances of maintaining measles elimination, without changing coverage.

Measles, mumps, rubella (MMR) and varicella zoster virus (VZV) infection can cause serious diseases and complications in the HIV-positive population. Due to successful vaccination programmes measles, mumps and congenital rubella syndrome has become neglected in Germany. However, recent outbreaks of measles have occurred from import-associated cases. In this cross-sectional study the serostatus for MMR and VZV in 2013 HIV-positive adults from three different university outpatient clinics in Bonn (n = 544), Cologne (n = 995) and Munich (n = 474) was analysed. Sera were tested for MMR- and VZV-specific immunglobulin G antibodies using commercial immunoassays. Seronegativity was found in 3% for measles, 26% for mumps, 11% for rubella and 2% for VZV. Regarding MMR, 35% of patients lacked seropositivity against at least one infectious agent. In multivariable analysis younger age was strongly associated with seronegativity against all four viruses, measles, mumps, rubella (P < 0·001, P < 0·001 and P = 0·001, respectively) and VZV (P = 0·001). In conclusion, there is high need for MMR and VZV vaccination in people living with HIV in Germany born in 1970 or later. Thus, systematic MMR and VZV antibody screening and vaccination should be implemented in the HIV-positive population to prevent serious disease and complications of vaccine-preventable diseases.

Suriname is ranked as high-risk country for cervical cancer, but recent national data of HPV prevalence and distribution in cervical cancer is scarce. In a retrospective cross-sectional study, cervical cancer incidence, HPV prevalence and HPV-type-specific distribution were investigated in all cervical cancer cases (n = 111), diagnosed in two consecutive years. HPV presence and type-specific prevalence were determined in paraffin-embedded biopsies utilizing master-nested multiplex PCR assays, targeting 14 HPV types. The age-standardized incidence rate of cervical cancer was 22·4/100 000 women, justifying revision of the current international ranking of Suriname. Eleven HPV types were detected, with the most common types in descending order of frequency: 16, 18, 45, 66, 58/52/35. HPV16 was predominant, although with markedly low presence (25%). HPV16 or 18 infections were detected in 43% of the cases, while 28% were untyped, implicating a divergent HPV-type distribution in Suriname with significant variation in the prevalence of less common high-risk virus types and/or presence of HPV16 variants. HPV-type distribution differed between ethnic groups. A vaccination efficacy of just 28–30% was anticipated, next to an uneven vaccination impact in different ethnic groups, cautioning Suriname and other multi-ethnic countries to tailor the information presented to different ethnic communities.

An outbreak of Legionnaires' disease occurred in an inner city district in Calgary, Canada. This outbreak spanned a 3-week period in November–December 2012, and a total of eight cases were identified. Four of these cases were critically ill requiring intensive care admission but there was no associated mortality. All cases tested positive for Legionella pneumophila serogroup 1 (LP1) by urinary antigen testing. Five of the eight patients were culture positive for LP1 from respiratory specimens. These isolates were further identified as Knoxville monoclonal subtype and sequence subtype ST222. Whole-genome sequencing revealed that the isolates differed by no more than a single vertically acquired single nucleotide variant, supporting a single point-source outbreak. Hypothesis-based environmental investigation and sampling was conducted; however, a definitive source was not identified. Geomapping of case movements within the affected urban sector revealed a 1·0 km common area of potential exposure, which coincided with multiple active construction sites that used water spray to minimize transient dust. This community point-source Legionnaires' disease outbreak is unique due to its ST222 subtype and occurrence in a relatively dry and cold weather setting in Western Canada. This report suggests community outbreaks of Legionella should not be overlooked as a possibility during late autumn and winter months in the Northern Hemisphere.

From a population-based birth cohort of 245 249 children born in Western Australia during 1996–2005, we used linkage of laboratory and birth record datasets to obtain data including all respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) detections during infancy from a subcohort of 87 981 singleton children born in the Perth metropolitan area from 2000 to 2004. Using log binomial regression, we found that the risk of infant RSV detection increases with the number of older siblings, with those having ⩾3 older siblings experiencing almost three times the risk (relative risk 2·83, 95% confidence interval 2·46–3·26) of firstborn children. We estimate that 45% of the RSV detections in our subcohort were attributable to infection from an older sibling. The sibling effect was significantly higher for those infants who were younger during the season of peak risk (winter) than those who were older. Although older siblings were present in our cohort, they had very few RSV detections which could be temporally linked to an infant's infection. We conclude that RSV infection in older children leads to less severe symptoms but is nevertheless an important source of infant infection. Our results lend support to a vaccination strategy which includes family members in order to provide maximum protection for newborn babies.

In temperate zones, human respiratory syncytial virus (HRSV) outbreaks typically occur in cold weather, i.e. in late autumn and winter. However, recent outbreaks in Japan have tended to start during summer and autumn. This study examined associations of meteorological conditions with the numbers of HRSV cases reported in summer in Japan. Using data from the HRSV national surveillance system and national meteorological data for summer during the period 2007–2014, we utilized negative binomial logistic regression analysis to identify associations between meteorological conditions and reported cases of HRSV. HRSV cases increased when summer temperatures rose and when relative humidity increased. Consideration of the interaction term temperature × relative humidity enabled us to show synergistic effects of high temperature with HRSV occurrence. In particular, HRSV cases synergistically increased when relative humidity increased while the temperature was ⩾28·2 °C. Seasonal-trend decomposition analysis using the HRSV national surveillance data divided by 11 climate divisions showed that summer HRSV cases occurred in South Japan (Okinawa Island), Kyushu, and Nankai climate divisions, which are located in southwest Japan. Higher temperature and higher relative humidity were necessary conditions for HRSV occurrence in summer in Japan. Paediatricians in temperate zones should be mindful of possible HRSV cases in summer, when suitable conditions are present.

Since the emergence of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV), Singapore has enhanced its national surveillance system to detect the potential importation of this novel pathogen. Using the guidelines from the Singapore Ministry of Health, a suspect case was defined as a person with clinical signs and symptoms suggestive of pneumonia or severe respiratory infection with breathlessness, and with an epidemiological link to countries where MERS-CoV cases had been reported within the preceding 14 days. This report describes a retrospective review of 851 suspected MERS-CoV cases assessed at the adult tertiary-care hospital in Singapore between September 2012 and December 2015. In total, 262 patients (31%) were hospitalized. All had MERS-CoV infection ruled out by RT–PCR or clinical assessment. Two hundred and thirty (88%) of the hospitalized patients were also investigated for influenza virus by RT–PCR. Of these, 62 (27%) tested positive for seasonal influenza. None of the patients with positive influenza results had been vaccinated in the year prior to hospital admission. Ninety-three (36%) out of the 262 hospitalized patients had clinical and/or radiological evidence of pneumonia. This study demonstrates the potential benefits of pre-travel vaccination against influenza and pneumococcal disease.

Since April 2015, whole genome sequencing (WGS) has been the routine test for Salmonella identification, surveillance and outbreak investigation at the national reference laboratory in England and Wales. In May 2015, an outbreak of Salmonella Enteritidis cases was detected using WGS data and investigated. UK cases were interviewed to obtain a food history and links between suppliers were mapped to produce a food chain network for chicken eggs. The association between the food chain network and the phylogeny was explored using a network comparison approach. Food and environmental samples were taken from premises linked to cases and tested for Salmonella. Within the outbreak single nucleotide polymorphism defined cluster, 136 cases were identified in the UK and 18 in Spain. One isolate from a food containing chicken eggs was within the outbreak cluster. There was a significant association between the chicken egg food chain of UK cases and phylogeny of outbreak isolates. This is the first published Salmonella outbreak to be prospectively detected using WGS. This outbreak in the UK was linked with contemporaneous cases in Spain by WGS. We conclude that UK and Spanish cases were exposed to a common source of Salmonella-contaminated chicken eggs.

A subtyping methodology for Campylobacter, Comparative Genomic Fingerprinting (CGF40), has been described recently. The objective of this study was to assess the utility of CGF40 as a tool to enhance routine public health surveillance of campylobacteriosis. Isolates of Campylobacter from across the province were requested and sent for CGF40 subtyping. Epidemiological data from cases reported to public health officials in Nova Scotia, Canada, from January 2012 to March 2015 were linked with blinded CGF40 subtyping results. CGF40 was epidemiologically valid; subtyping discerned known epidemiologically related isolates and augmented case-finding. Predominant sources and locations of subtype detection from the national reference database showed some study subtypes were rare and even novel to the database, while others were more commonly identified over multiple years and with exposures locally and internationally. A case-case study design was applied to examine risk factors for the most common CGF40 subtypes detected. Differences in the epidemiology of different CGF40 subtypes were observed. Statistically significant associations were noted for specific subtypes with rural residence, local exposure, contact with a pet dog or cat, contact with chickens, and drinking unpasteurized milk. With prospective use, CGF40 could potentially identify unrecognized outbreaks and contribute to epidemiological investigations of case clusters.

Faecal specimens collected from outbreak (n = 253) and sporadic (n = 147) cases of acute gastroenteritis that occurred in western India between 2006 and 2014 were tested for group C rotavirus (GCR) using partial VP6 gene-based RT–PCR. All specimens were tested previously for the presence of other viral and bacterial aetiological agents by conventional methods. The rate of GCR detection was 8·6% and 0·7% in outbreak and sporadic cases, respectively. GCR infections prevailed in outbreaks reported from rural areas (10·9%) compared to urban areas (1·6%). Clinical severity score of the patients with GCR infection (n = 23) indicated severe disease in the majority (70%) of cases. The age distribution analysis indicated 52·1% of GCR infections in children aged <10 years. The male:female ratio in GCR-positive patients was 2·3:1. Of the 23 GCR-positive cases, 17 (73·9%) had a sole GCR infection and six had mixed infections with other viral and/or bacterial agents. Phylogenetic analysis of nucleotide sequences classified GCR strains of the study in to I2 genotype of the VP6 gene. This is the first study to show the occurrence of GCR in gastroenteritis outbreaks in India.

As poultry consumption continues to increase worldwide, and as the United States accounts for about one-third of all poultry exports globally, understanding factors leading to poultry-associated foodborne outbreaks in the United States has important implications for food safety. We analysed outbreaks reported to the United States’ Foodborne Disease Outbreak Surveillance System from 1998 to 2012 in which the implicated food or ingredient could be assigned to one food category. Of 1114 outbreaks, poultry was associated with 279 (25%), accounting for the highest number of outbreaks, illnesses, and hospitalizations, and the second highest number of deaths. Of the 149 poultry-associated outbreaks caused by a confirmed pathogen, Salmonella enterica (43%) and Clostridium perfringens (26%) were the most common pathogens. Restaurants were the most commonly reported location of food preparation (37% of poultry-associated outbreaks), followed by private homes (25%), and catering facilities (13%). The most commonly reported factors contributing to poultry-associated outbreaks were food-handling errors (64%) and inadequate cooking (53%). Effective measures to reduce poultry contamination, promote safe food-handling practices, and ensure food handlers do not work while ill could reduce poultry-associated outbreaks and illnesses.

The results of the study reported here are part of an ongoing integrated research programme aimed at producing additional, robust, evidence on the genetic resistance to classical scrapie in goats, with particular reference to codon 146. The study targeted animals aged ⩾6 years, which were born and raised in infected herds and were being culled for management reasons. A total of 556 animals were tested, and all positive animals (n = 117) were of the susceptible NN genotype. A total of 246 goats heterozygous or homozygous for putatively resistant alleles (S146 and D146) were screened with no positive results. The outcome of this study supports the hypothesis that the D146 and S146 alleles could be used as the basis for a nationwide strategy for breeding for resistance in the Cypriot goat population.

Cysticercosis, a leading cause of acquired epilepsy in developing countries, has been controlled or eradicated in industrialized countries. This paradigm has recently been challenged, with human neurocysticercosis (NCC) being increasingly diagnosed in these countries. In order to assess the NCC burden in Portugal, a retrospective study on NCC hospitalizations (2006–2013) was conducted based on the national database on hospital morbidity: 357 hospitalized cases were detected. NCC was most frequent in the following age groups: 20–64 years (n = 197, 55·2%) >64 years (n = 111, 31·1%), and <20 years (n = 49, 13·7%). In the Norte and Centro regions cases tended to be older than in the Lisboa and Vale do Tejo Region. The results raise concerns for imported and autochthonous disease, suggesting the Lisboa and Vale do Tejo Region, due to its higher frequency of cases at younger ages, as a priority for research and intervention, and further suggest that NCC should be under surveillance (notifiable). The National Observatory of Cysticercosis and Taeniasis has been established and will define NCC cases as well as monitoring and surveillance.

Urban slum environments in the tropics are conducive to the proliferation and the spread of rodent-borne zoonotic pathogens to humans. Calodium hepaticum (Brancroft, 1893) is a zoonotic nematode known to infect a variety of mammalian hosts, including humans. Norway rats (Rattus norvegicus) are considered the most important mammalian host of C. hepaticum and are therefore a potentially useful species to inform estimates of the risk to humans living in urban slum environments. There is a lack of studies systematically evaluating the role of demographic and environmental factors that influence both carriage and intensity of infection of C. hepaticum in rodents from urban slum areas within tropical regions. Carriage and the intensity of infection of C. hepaticum were studied in 402 Norway rats over a 2-year period in an urban slum in Salvador, Brazil. Overall, prevalence in Norway rats was 83% (337/402). Independent risk factors for C. hepaticum carriage in R. norvegicus were age and valley of capture. Of those infected the proportion with gross liver involvement (i.e. >75% of the liver affected, a proxy for a high level intensity of infection), was low (8%, 26/337). Sixty soil samples were collected from ten locations to estimate levels of environmental contamination and provide information on the potential risk to humans of contracting C. hepaticum from the environment. Sixty percent (6/10) of the sites were contaminated with C. hepaticum. High carriage levels of C. hepaticum within Norway rats and sub-standard living conditions within slum areas may increase the risk to humans of exposure to the infective eggs of C. hepaticum. This study supports the need for further studies to assess whether humans are becoming infected within this community and whether C. hepaticum is posing a significant risk to human health.

The presence of parasites on the farm can be a cause of losses in animal production, and often a threat to public health. A cross-sectional study was carried out in rural areas of the western highlands of Cameroon to determine the prevalence and husbandry-related risk factors associated with Cordylobia anthropophaga infestations in domestic cavies. The overall prevalence of myiasis in animals was 2·80% [95% confidence interval (CI) 1·50–5·10]; myiasis was found in 2% and 4·30% animals in Menoua and Bamboutos divisions, respectively. Eleven farms (8·95%) in total were infested with C. anthropophaga, with 6·41% and 13·34% of farms in the Menoua and Bamboutos divisions, respectively. The relative risk of infestation within each factor showed that the risk of myiasis in animals kept in kitchen compartments without litter was 6·16 times higher (95% CI 1·71–22·29, P = 0·04) than in animals kept in kitchens and house floors. Despite the low prevalence, the burden of cordylobiasis needs to be assessed. It is assumed that the risk of humans acquiring the disease is higher in farmers keeping cavies in kitchen compartments without litter. Farmers need to be educated on control measures to reduce the risk of infestation, which include both sanitation and medical (larvae extraction) measures.

Shoe soles have been shown to transfer infectious microorganisms to floor and ground surfaces. However, the possible modes of transmission of infectious agents from floors or ground surfaces to human contact for infection have not been systematically reviewed. A systematic review was performed on articles indexed in medical databases (Medline, EMBASE, PubMed) using a pre-defined search strategy and MeSH terms (date of last search: 15 March 2016). Only primary research studies in English that investigated the transmission dynamics of infectious microorganisms from floor or ground surfaces to human infection were included. Extraction of articles was performed two independent reviewers using pre-defined data fields in an Excel sheet. Disagreements were resolved by consensus. Thirty studies met the inclusion criteria. Almost all hospital-associated microorganisms including methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus, Clostridium difficile, and multidrug-resistant Gram-negative species were identified on floor or ground surfaces. Several modes of transmission dynamics, most commonly direct contact or aerosolization, were identified. In conclusion, interventions such as efficient cleaning of floor surfaces and vectors that transfer infectious organisms to floors such as shoe soles could be an effective infection control strategy to prevent human disease.

Tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) is peculiar due to its unstable dynamics with profound inter-annual fluctuations in case numbers – a phenomenon not well understood to date. Possible reasons – apart from variable human contact with TBE foci – include external factors, e.g. climatic forcing, autonomous oscillations of the disease system itself, or a combined action of both. Spectral analysis of TBE data from six regions of central Europe (CE) revealed that the ostensibly chaotic dynamics can be explained in terms of four superposed (quasi-)periodical oscillations: a quasi-biennial, triennial, pentennial, and a decadal cycle. These oscillations exhibit a high degree of regularity and synchrony across CE. Nevertheless, some amplitude and phase variations are responsible for regional differences in incidence patterns. In addition, periodic changes occur in the degree of synchrony in the regions: marked in-phase periods alternate with rather off-phase periods. Such a feature in the disease dynamics implies that it arises as basically diverging self-oscillations of local disease systems which, at intervals, receive synchronizing impulses, such as periodic variations in food availability for key hosts driven by external factors. This makes the disease dynamics synchronized over a large area during peaks in the synchronization signal, shifting to asynchrony in the time in between.

Outbreaks of acute haemorrhagic conjunctivitis (AHC) – a rapidly progressing and highly contagious infection – often occur in schools during summer and autumn. We used dynamic modelling to evaluate the efficacy of interventions to control AHC outbreaks in schools. A susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model was built to simulate AHC outbreaks in Chinese schools, with isolation or school closure added into the model. We used outbreak data from the period 2004–2015 in our models to estimate the effective reproduction number and assess the efficacy of interventions. The median effective reproduction number (uncontrolled) of AHC outbreaks was 7·00 (range 1·77–25·87). The median effective reproduction number (controlled) of AHC outbreaks was 0·16 (range 0·00–2·28). Intervention efficacy is affected by the timing of isolation; earlier isolation is associated with a lower morbidity peak and smaller total attack rate (TAR). School closures were not effective; TARs were almost 100% and did not change even when different school closure durations were adopted. Isolation and school closure as a combined intervention strategy was used to simulate outbreak control, but the efficacy was the same as isolation alone. An isolation programme could be an effective primary intervention during AHC outbreaks in schools. However, school closure is not recommended.

This study compared the antimicrobial susceptibility and genotypes of strains of Neisseria gonorrhoeae isolated from men who have sex with men (MSM) and from heterosexuals. One hundred and eleven strains were characterized from 107 patients, comprising 57 strains from 54 heterosexuals and 54 strains from 53 MSM. Antimicrobial resistance rates were higher in strains from heterosexual patients, with resistance to cefixime (P = 0·0159) and ciprofloxacin (P = 0·002) being significantly higher. Typing by N. gonorrhoeae multi-antigen sequence typing (NG-MAST) showed that the most prevalent sequence types (ST) and genogroups (G) respectively were ST2400, ST2992, and ST5793, and G1407, G2992, and G2400. A statistically significant association was observed for MSM and genogroups G2400 (P = 0·0005) and G2992 (P = 0·0488), and G1407 with heterosexuals (P = 0·0002). We conclude that in our region distinct populations of gonococci are circulating among subjects with different sexual practices, with their corresponding transmission patterns. Furthermore, the high prevalence of genotype G2400 in MSM, has not to our knowledge been previously described.