This review focuses on current and future prevention of invasive cervical cancer (ICC), the second most common cancer among women worldwide. Implementation of population-based cytological screening programmes, using the ‘Pap’ smear to detect pre-cancerous lesions in the cervix, has resulted in substantial declines in mortality and morbidity from ICC in North America and some European countries. However, cases of, and deaths from, ICC continue to occur. Primary prevention of infection with high-risk human papillomavirus (HPV) types, the central causal factor of ICC, could further reduce incidence of and mortality from ICC. This is particularly the case in developing countries, which bear 80% of the burden of ICC, and where effective Pap screening programmes are extremely difficult to implement. Very promising results from several trials of synthetic HPV type-specific monovalent (HPV 16) and bivalent (HPV 16 and 18) vaccines have recently been published, showing high efficacy against type-specific persistent HPV infection and development of type-specific pre-cancerous lesions. Large-scale phase III trials of a number of such vaccine candidates are currently underway, and there is real hope that an effective vaccine capable of protecting against infection with HPV types 16 and 18 (which together account for ∼70% of cervical cancer cases worldwide), and thereby of preventing development of a very significant proportion of cases of ICC, could be available within the next 2 years.

A national UK surveillance system currently uses data from a health helpline (NHS Direct) in an attempt to provide early warning of a bio-terrorist attack, or an outbreak caused by a more common infection. To test this syndromic surveillance system we superimposed data from a historical outbreak of cryptosporidiosis onto a statistical model of NHS Direct call data. We modelled whether calls about diarrhoea (a proxy for cryptosporidiosis) exceeded a statistical threshold, thus alerting the surveillance team to the outbreak. On the date that the public health team were first notified of the outbreak our model predicted a 4% chance of detection when we assumed that one-twentieth of cryptosporidiosis cases telephoned the helpline. This rose to a 72% chance when we assumed nine-tenths of cases telephoned. The NHS Direct surveillance system is currently unlikely to detect an event similar to the cryptosporidiosis outbreak used here and may be most suited to detecting more widespread rises in syndromes in the community, as previously demonstrated. However, the expected rise in NHS Direct call rates, should improve early warning of outbreaks using call data.

The risk for a pathogen to cross the species barrier depends on the rate of efficient contacts between the species. However, contact rates between species have rarely been estimated from observations. Here we estimate contact rates and exposure of chamois Rupicapra rupicapra and Alpine ibex Capra ibex exposed to domestic pasteurellosis and brucellosis carried by sheep or cattle herds summering in mountain pastures. We use field observation data on animal positions treated in a geographic information system (GIS). Comparing 10 pastures, we show that the management of domestic herds influences the risk of inter-species transmission. Exposure to direct transmission of pasteurellosis is high when herds are not guarded nor enclosed, whereas exposure to indirect transmission of brucellosis is increased on epidemiological dangerous points such as salt deposits. Our preliminary results need further investigation, but they underline the importance of both herd management and pathogen transmission mode when the aim is to reduce the risk of contamination of wild populations by a pathogen associated with domestic pathogens.

The rate at which infectious diseases spread through farm animal populations depends both on individual disease characteristics and the opportunity for transmission via close contact. Data on the relationships affecting the contact structure of farm animal populations are, therefore, required to improve mathematical models for the spatial spread of farm animal diseases. This paper presents data on the contact network for agricultural shows in Great Britain, whereby a link between two shows occurs if they share common competitors in the sheep class. Using the network, the potential for disease spread through agricultural shows is investigated varying both the initial show infected and the infectious period of the disease. The analysis reveals a highly connected network such that diseases introduced early in the show season could present a risk to sheep at the majority of subsequent shows. This data emphasizes the importance of maintaining rigorous showground and farm-level bio-security.

The records of sewer baiting work for three London boroughs were examined to see whether there were locations that exhibited ‘rat’ (Rattus norvegicus) activity more often than would be expected by chance, a feature we dubbed ‘hotspots’. More than 100 000 baiting records were checked covering 15 years of the London Borough of Enfield (Enfield) and 5 years each of the London Borough of Barnet (Barnet), and the Royal Borough of Kensington and Chelsea (RBKC). The additional boroughs were included for comparison to see whether any effect observed was confined to Enfield or was a feature that could be found in both inner and outer city locations. Each borough was divided into kilometre squares corresponding with those found both on Ordnance Survey maps and also Thames Water Utilities Asset maps. The number of records per square were logged and then the number of positive records for all the manholes in that square on a year-on-year basis. We examined 350 km2 in Enfield, 377 km2 in Barnet and 66 km2 in RBKC. The data were subjected to a weighted analysis (i.e. allowing for the number of manholes per square and the varying total rat population from year to year). Some areas were shown to exhibit significantly higher amounts of activity than others suggesting that their distribution is not random and that there must be environmental and other factors, which make certain locations attractive to rats. Squares with very high activity, repeating year-on-year, ‘hotspots’, were found in all three boroughs, suggesting that the phenomena are widespread.

Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis (Map), the cause of ruminant paratuberculosis, has been proposed as the causative agent of Crohn's disease. The objective of this study was to determine whether exposure to clinical cases of bovine paratuberculosis was a risk factor for Crohn's disease. A questionnaire was sent to dairy farmers living on premises where the occurrence or absence of clinical cases of bovine paratuberculosis had previously been determined. The prevalence of Crohn's disease was found to be similar to that reported in other studies in the United Kingdom and showed no association with bovine paratuberculosis. There was, however, a univariate association with geographical region. Ulcerative colitis showed univariate associations with age, frequency of contact with cattle and with smoking. The results do not support the hypothesis that Map plays a causative role in the aetiology of Crohn's disease.

The development of second-generation rotavirus vaccines requires knowledge of baseline incidence rates for intussusception in infants prior to vaccine introduction. To obtain such estimates we reviewed clinical records in a hospital that served as the major provider of paediatric beds in a local community in the northern part of Japan. During the 25-year period (1978–2002), there were 91 hospitalizations due to radiologically confirmed intussusception in children <5 years of age, of which 45% were <1 year of age. Assuming that all children with intussusception in the area had been admitted to this hospital, there were an average of 185 and 78 hospitalizations per 100 000 person-years for children <1 year old and 5 years old respectively. There was period-to-period variability with no long-term secular trend in the incidence of intussusception. The incidence rate in Japan was among the highest thus far reported, providing further evidence of geographic variability.

A growing number of publications are recommending annual influenza vaccination of healthy children and adults. However, the long-term consequences of repeated influenza vaccination are unknown. We used a simple model of recurrent influenza infection to assess the likely impact of various repeated influenza vaccination scenarios. The model was based on a Markovian framework and was fitted on annual incidence rates of influenza infection by age. We found that natural influenza infection reduced the risk of being re-infected by 15·4% (95% confidence interval 7·1–23·0). Various scenarios of repeated influenza vaccination were then simulated and compared with a reference scenario where vaccination is given from age 65 years onwards. We show that repeated vaccination at a young age substantially increases the risk of influenza in older age, by a factor ranging between 1·2 (vaccination after 50 years) to 2·4 (vaccination from birth). These findings have important implications for influenza vaccination policies.

The objectives of these studies were to analyse the effect of mass influenza immunization in children on the morbidity of unvaccinated non-institutionalized elderly during an influenza epidemic. A mass vaccination campaign with vaccine was conducted in children aged 3–6 years attending kindergartens (57·4% of 6374) and aged 7–17 years attending schools (72% of 34 237) in two communities of the Moscow region. The clinical effectiveness of vaccination was 60·9% for kindergartens and 68·8% for schools. There were 3·4 times fewer episodes of influenza-like illnesses and 1·7–2·6 fewer episodes in all seven diseases which are possible complications of influenza out of the 10 evaluated diseases in 158 451 unvaccinated non-institutionalized elderly people during the influenza epidemic compared with the control communities. The differences were found to be statistically significant. Mass vaccination of children attending child institutions brought about a significant reduction of both influenza-like illnesses in children and influenza-associated illnesses in unvaccinated non-institutionalized elderly persons living in the home setting.

We conducted a prospective birth cohort study in rural Sudan to assess measles virus (MV)-specific antibody levels at different time points in infancy. Dried blood spots were collected on filter paper at birth (cord blood) and at ages 6, 12 and 24 months (heel-prick). Maternally derived MV-specific antibody levels were high in cord blood samples, but at the age of 6 months had dropped below cut-off values in half of the infants. By extrapolation it was concluded that the current Expanded Programme of Immunization (EPI) target age for measles vaccination of 9 months was an appropriate choice for this area. At the age of 24 months acquired MV-specific antibodies were detected in 65–85% of the cohort, which corresponded well with the 79% of infants reported to be vaccinated by this age. This study demonstrates the usefulness of filter paper blood samples for seroepidemiological studies in developing countries.

To investigate the causal relationship of blood clotting factors and hepatitis A virus (HAV) infection in haemophilia patients during 1998–1999 in Korea, we performed a 1:3 matched case-control study and molecular detection of HAV from clotting factors and patients. The epidemiological investigation showed that one lot of clotting factor VIII was related epidemiologically to patients with hepatitis A with an odds ratio of 35·0, or 38·4 when adjusted for the interval between injections. We examined 17 sera collected from seven patients and 124 lots of blood clotting factors (factor VIII and factor IV) by HAV reverse transcriptase–polymerase chain reaction (RT–PCR). HAV RNA was detected in five clotting factors and six sera. The HAV sequence of one of the factor VIII samples was identical to the sequences found in three patients' sera. Findings from the laboratory and epidemiological studies suggested that the clotting factor was causally related to HAV infection in three haemophilia patients.

A case-control study involving 109 in-patients with chronic liver disease and 190 in-patients with no apparent liver disease was conducted to evaluate the seroprevalence of anti-HEV antibodies and the possible association with chronic liver disease. Among cases, the anti-HEV prevalence was 36·6% which increased significantly by age; among controls, the prevalence was 12·1% (P<0·05) and was similar among age groups <60 years. Among cases, aged >50 years (OR 4·0, 95% CI 1·4–11) and the presence of end stage liver disease (ESLD) (OR 4·3, 95% CI 1·4–12·8) were associated independently with anti-HEV positivity. The mean optical density, determined by anti-HEV immunoenzymatic test, was significantly higher among patients with ESLD, compared to the other patients. These results indicate that there is a high seroprevalence of anti-HEV in patients with chronic liver disease and a possible association between HEV infection and/or anti-HEV production and advanced stage chronic liver disease.

In a retrospective epidemiological study, 293 meningococcal disease patients hospitalized during 1985–2002, were examined for fatality and risk factors related to death. The overall case fatality rate (CFR) was 8·2%, but increased from 4% during 1985–1993 to 17% during 1994–2002. The latter 9-year period was characterized by more serogroup C infections and more patients with thrombocytopenia on admission to hospital. All patients categorized as meningitis on admission survived. Of the 24 patients who died, 21 had meningococcal skin rash on admission, 23 had an onset to admission time of ⩽24 h, and 16 had severe septicaemia with hypotension and/or ecchymoses without meningitis on admission. By multivariate analyses, a short onset to admission time, >50 petechiae, thrombocytopenia and severe septicaemia on admission were associated with fatality. More lives could be saved through earlier admission to hospital. This can be achieved through more information to the public about the early signs of meningococcal septicaemia, with the recommendation to look for skin rash in patients with acute fever during the first day and night.

To estimate the frequency of infectious gastroenteritis across Australia, and to identify risk factors, we conducted a national telephone survey of 6087 randomly selected respondents in 2001–2002. The case definition was three or more loose stools and/or two or more vomits in a 24-hour period in the last 4 weeks, with adjustment to exclude non-infectious causes and symptoms secondary to a respiratory infection. Frequency data were weighted to the Australian population. Multivariate logistic regression was used to assess potential risk factors including season, region, demographic and socioeconomic status. Among contacted individuals, 67% responded. The case definition applied to 7% of respondents (450/6087) which extrapolates to 17·2 million (95% CI 14·5–19·9 million) cases of gastroenteritis in Australia in one year, or 0·92 (95% CI 0·77–1·06) cases/person per year. In the multivariate model, the odds of having gastroenteritis were increased in summer and in the warmest state, in young children, females, those with higher socioeconomic status and those without health insurance.

Campylobacter is the most common bacterial cause of gastroenteritis in England and Wales, with 45 000 cases reported annually. Campylobacter incidence is highly seasonal; the consistent peak in late spring suggests a role for meteorological factors in the epidemiology of this organism. We investigated the relationship between ambient temperature and Campylobacter enteritis using time-series analysis to study short-term associations between temperature and number of Campylobacter reports adjusted for longer-term trend and seasonal patterns. We found a linear relationship between mean weekly temperature and reported Campylobacter enteritis, with a 1°C rise corresponding to a 5% increase in the number of reports up to a threshold of 14°C. There was no relationship outside this temperature range. Our findings provide evidence that ambient temperature influences Campylobacter incidence, and suggest that its effect is likely to be indirect, acting through other intermediate pathways.

In this study comprising isolates from 2001 to 2003, resistance was considerably more widespread among Campylobacter jejuni from humans infected abroad than infected within Norway. The discrepancy was particularly notable for fluoroquinolone resistance (67·4% vs. 6·5%). This is probably a reflection of a low resistance prevalence in Norwegian broiler isolates (1·2% fluoroquinolone resistant).

The prevalence of Escherichia coli O157 displays striking variability across the Scottish cattle population. On 78% of farms, in a cross-sectional survey of 952, no shedding of E. coli O157 was detected, but on a small proportion, ∼2%, very high prevalences of infection were found (with 90–100% of pats sampled being positive). We ask whether this variation arises from the inherent stochasticity in transmission dynamics or whether it is a signature of underlying heterogeneities in the cattle population. A novel approach is taken whereby the cross-sectional data are viewed as providing independent snapshots of a dynamic process. Using maximum-likelihood methods to fit time-dependent epidemiological models to the data we obtain estimates for the rates of immigration and transmission of E. coli O157 infection – parameters which have not been previously quantified in the literature. A comparison of alternative model fits reveals that the variation in the prevalence data is best explained when a proportion of the cattle are assumed to transmit infection at much higher levels than the rest – the so-called super-shedders. Analysis of a second dataset, comprising samples taken from 32 farms at monthly intervals over a period of 1 year, additionally yields an estimate for the rate of recovery from infection. The pattern of prevalence displayed in the second dataset also strongly supports the super-shedder hypothesis.

A family cluster of three cases of Escherichia coli O157 infection was identified in France. Two cases developed haemolytic–uraemic syndrome. The source was fresh unpasteurized goats' cheese, produced by an independent producer. Three E. coli O157 strains, isolated from one HUS case and faeces of one cow and one goat, were indistinguishable by toxin type and PFGE pattern.

Cryptosporidium has become increasingly recognized as a pathogen responsible for outbreaks of diarrhoeal illness in both immunocompetent and immunocompromised persons. In August 2001, an Illinois hospital reported a cryptosporidiosis cluster potentially linked to a local waterpark. There were 358 case-patients identified. We conducted community-based and waterpark-based case-control studies to examine potential sources of the outbreak. We collected stool specimens from ill persons and pool water samples for microscopy and molecular analysis. Laboratory-confirmed case-patients (n=77) were more likely to have attended the waterpark [odds ratio (OR) 16·0, 95% confidence interval (CI) 3·8–66·8], had pool water in the mouth (OR 6·0, 95% CI 1·3–26·8), and swallowed pool water (OR 4·5, 95% CI 1·5–13·3) than age-matched controls. Cryptosporidium was found in stool specimens and pool water samples. The chlorine resistance of oocysts, frequent swimming exposures, high bather densities, heavy usage by diaper-aged children, and increased recognition and reporting of outbreaks are likely to have contributed to the increasing trend in number of swimming pool-associated outbreaks of cryptosporidiosis. Recommendations for disease prevention include alteration of pool design to separate toddler pool filtration systems from other pools. Implementation of education programmes could reduce the risk of faecal contamination and disease transmission.

In Greece the public health surveillance for most infectious diseases, including shigellosis, is not well developed. However, four waterborne outbreaks of shigellosis have been recorded in Greece in the last three decades, in different areas of the country, under different environmental and socioeconomic conditions. This study presents the epidemiological characteristics of these four outbreaks in order to examine common points and differences and to investigate their possible association with environmental and socioeconomic conditions. All four outbreaks were caused by Shigella sonnei and related to drinking water. Epidemic curves, distribution of cases by age and gender, hospitalization rates, environmental conditions and laboratory results were compared. The outbreaks seemed to correspond to two different ‘models’ presenting two characteristic types of epidemic waves related to specific environmental conditions. The attack rates for the general population varied from about 9 to 13% and were similar for both sexes. Children were affected mostly. In these outbreaks there was a strong suspicion of contamination of the water distribution system from the sewage network, highlighting the importance of environmental health control measures.