The active form of vitamin D has effects on both innate and adaptive immune responses that may influence the outcome in many infectious diseases. Observational studies conclusively show that a low vitamin D status is associated with an increased occurrence of respiratory viral infections, which globally represent significant health and financial burdens. However, no consistent protective effects are evident in prospective clinical trials carried out to date where vitamin D was provided as a dietary supplement, except possibly in cases where the starting vitamin D status of the individual was considered deficient. Thus far, vitamin D has not been found to enhance the immune response to vaccines. The design of future prospective clinical trials assessing a role for vitamin D in respiratory viral infections requires very careful planning to avoid the uncertainties associated with the data available currently.

This study determined the risk of respiratory infection associated with high-risk procedures (HRPs) performed by healthcare workers (HCWs) in high-risk settings. We prospectively studied 481 hospital HCWs in China, documented risk factors for infection, including performing HRPs, measured new infections, and analysed whether HRPs predicted infection. Infection outcomes were clinical respiratory infection (CRI), laboratory-confirmed viral or bacterial infection, and an influenza infection. About 12% (56/481) of the study participants performed at least one HRP, the most common being airway suctioning (7·7%, 37/481). HCWs who performed a HRP were at significantly higher risk of developing CRI and laboratory-confirmed infection [adjusted relative risk 2·9, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1·42–5·87 and 2·9, 95% CI 1·37–6·22, respectively]. Performing a HRP resulted in a threefold increase in the risk of respiratory infections. This is the first time the risk has been prospectively quantified in HCWs, providing data to inform occupational health and safety policies.

This paper summarizes influenza activity in the European Union/European Economic Area (EU/EEA) in 2012–2013. The influenza season 2012–2013 in Europe lasted from early December to late April. Overall the severity of the season could be described as moderate, based on the ILI/ARI consultation rates and the percentage of sentinel specimens positive for influenza compared to previous seasons. Both influenza A and B viruses circulating accounted for 47% and 53% of positive sentinel specimens, respectively, with both A(H1) and A(H3) varying for dominance. Compared to outpatients, the proportion of laboratory-confirmed influenza hospitalized cases infected by A(H1N1)pdm09 was significantly higher in middle-aged patients (33% vs. 17%, χ 2 = 66·6, P < 0·01). Despite a relatively good match between vaccine and circulating strains, vaccine effectiveness was estimated to be moderate.

Although the compartmentalization of poultry industry components has substantial economic implications, and is therefore a concept with huge significance to poultry industries worldwide, the current requirements for compartment status are generic to all OIE member countries. We examined the consequences for potential outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza in the British poultry industry using a metapopulation modelling framework. This framework was used to assess the effectiveness of compartmentalization relative to zoning control, utilizing empirical data to inform the structure of potential epidemiological contacts within the British poultry industry via network links and spatial proximity. Conditions were identified where, despite the efficient isolation of poultry compartments through the removal of network-mediated links, spatially mediated airborne spread enabled spillover of infection with nearby premises making compartmentalization a more ‘risky’ option than zoning control. However, when zoning control did not effectively inhibit long-distance network links, compartmentalization became a relatively more effective control measure than zoning. With better knowledge of likely distance ranges for airborne spread, our approach could help define an appropriate minimum inter-farm distance to provide more specific guidelines for compartmentalization in Great Britain.

Influenza causes significant morbidity and mortality in children. This study's objectives were to describe influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 during the pandemic, to compare it with circulating influenza in 2010/2011, and to identify risk factors for severe influenza defined as requiring admission to a paediatric intensive care unit (PICU). Children hospitalized with influenza during the pandemic were older, and more likely to have received antiviral therapy than children hospitalized during the 2010/2011 season. In 2010/2011, only one child admitted to a PICU with underlying medical conditions had been vaccinated. The risk of severe illness in the pandemic was higher in females and those with underlying conditions. In 2010/2011, infection with influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 compared to other influenza viruses was a significant risk factor for severe disease. An incremental relationship was found between the number of underlying conditions and PICU admission. These findings highlight the importance of improving low vaccination uptake and increasing the use of antivirals in vulnerable children.

Aquatic wild birds are often carriers of low-pathogenic avian influenza viruses (LPAIVs). If H5 and H7 LPAIVs are transmitted to poultry and have the opportunity to circulate, a highly pathogenic AIV may arise. Contact with aquatic wild birds is one of the most important ways in which these LPAIVs can be introduced into poultry flocks. In this study, the transmissibility of a duck-originated H5 LPAIV between ducks and chickens was analysed in a series of animal experiments, using different transmission routes. Results indicate that the outcome of virus intake by chickens exposed to infectious ducks depends on the way the virus is presented. Faecally contaminated drinking water proved to be the most efficient route by which the virus can be transmitted to chickens. The results from this study also suggest that some duck-originated H5 LPAIVs may be introduced to poultry but do not have the potential to become established in poultry populations.

Socio-behavioural factors and pathogens associated with childhood diarrhoea are of global public health concern. Our survey in 696 children aged ⩽2 years in rural West Bengal detected rotavirus as sole pathogen in 8% (17/199) of diarrhoeic stool specimens. Other organisms were detected along with rotavirus in 11% of faecal specimens. A third of the children with rotavirus diarrhoea, according to Vesikari score, had severe illness. The top four rotavirus genotypes were G9P[4] (28%), G1P[8] (19%), G2P[4] (14%) and G8P[4] (8%). In the multivariate model, the practice of ‘drawing drinking water by dipping a pot in the storage vessel’ [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 2·21, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1·03–4·74, P = 0·041], and ‘children aged ⩽6 months with non-exclusive breastfeeding’ (aOR 2·07, 95% CI 1·1–3·82, P = 0·024) had twice the odds of having diarrhoea. Incidence of rotavirus diarrhoea was 24/100 child-years in children aged >6–18 months, 19/100 child-years in children aged >18–24 months and 5/100 child-years in those aged ⩽6 months. Results have translational implications for future interventions including vaccine development.

This study examined the effects of meteorological factors, particularly, extreme weather events, on the prevalence of childhood diarrhoeal disease in Matlab, Bangladesh. Logistic regression models were used to examine impacts of temperature, rainfall and the extreme weather factors (the number of hot days and days with heavy rainfall) on childhood diarrhoea from 2000 to 2006 at the bari (cluster of dwellings) level. The results showed that the increases in the number of hot days and days with heavy rainfall were associated with an increase in daily diarrhoea cases by 0·8–3·8% and 1–6·2%, respectively. The results from multivariable stepwise models showed that the extreme weather factors were still positively associated with childhood diarrhoea, while the associations for average temperature and rainfall could be negative after other variables were controlled. The findings showed that not only the intensity, but also the frequency of extreme weather events had significant effects on childhood diarrhoea.

Water supply-associated cryptosporidiosis outbreaks have decreased in England since the application of risk reduction measures to public water supplies. We hypothesized that smaller outbreaks were occurring which could be better detected by enhanced surveillance. Rolling analysis of detailed questionnaire data was applied prospectively in a population of 2·2 million in the south of England in 2009 and 2010. Detection of spatiotemporal clusters using SaTScan was later undertaken retrospectively. Together these approaches identified eight outbreaks, compared to an expectation of less than one based on national surveillance data. These outbreaks were small and associated with swimming pool use or, less commonly, direct (e.g. petting-farm) contact with animals. These findings suggest that frequent small-scale transmission in swimming pools is an important contributor to disease burden. Identification of swimming pool-level risk factors may inform preventative measures. These findings and the approaches described may be applicable to many other populations and to some other diseases.

In August 2012, an outbreak of gastroenteritis occurred among 88 persons attending a wedding reception at a resort/activity centre in Ylöjärvi, Finland. Of 39 interviewed guests, 23 met the case definition. Two persons were hospitalized. Epidemiological, laboratory and environmental investigations were conducted to characterize the outbreak and to recommend control measures. Investigation confirmed the presence of a new strain of norovirus GII.4 Sydney variant in stool specimens obtained from two wedding guests and on several environmental surfaces in the centre. In the questionnaire study, none of the foods or beverages served during the reception were significantly associated with the illness. Additional cases of gastroenteritis that occurred at the centre before and after the wedding reception supported the hypothesis of environmental transmission of norovirus. After thorough cleansing and disinfection and 1 week's quarantine, no new cases with symptoms typical for norovirus infection were identified at the centre.

Campylobacter is a common cause of intestinal disease in humans and is often linked to the consumption of contaminated poultry meat. Despite considerable research on the topic there is a large amount of uncertainty associated with Campylobacter epidemiology. A Bayesian model framework was applied to multiple longitudinal datasets on Campylobacter infection in UK broiler flocks to estimate the time at which each flock was first infected with Campylobacter. The model results suggest that the day of first infection ranges from 10 to 45 days; however, over half had a time of infection between 30 and 35 days. When considering only those flocks which were thinned, 48% had an estimated day of infection within 2 days of the day of thinning, thus suggesting an association between thinning and Campylobacter infection. These results demonstrate how knowledge of the time of infection can be correlated to known events to identify potential risk factors for infection.

The aim of this study was to determine the association between farm management factors, including antimicrobial drug usage, and resistance in commensal Escherichia coli isolates from the faeces of white veal calves. Ninety E. coli isolates from one pooled sample per farm (n = 48) were tested for their phenotypical resistance against amoxicillin, tetracycline, cefotaxime, ciprofloxacin and trimethoprim/sulfamethoxazole (TMP/SMX). Logistic regression analysis revealed the following risk factors (P < 0·05); farmer wearing the same work clothes for several days [ciprofloxacin, odds ratio (OR) 2·6; tetracycline, OR 2·4], administration of trimethoprim-sulfonamide combinations (TMP/SMX, OR 3·0; amoxicillin, OR 3·1; tetracycline, OR 2·6), ⩾0·3 animal daily dosage per production cycle (ADD/pc), quinolones (ciprofloxacin, OR 2·8), ⩾1·3 ADD/pc, penicillins (ciprofloxacin, OR 3·3; tetracycline, OR 3·4), 20–40 ADD/pc, tetracyclines (tetracycline, OR 3·2) and >40 ADD/pc, tetracyclines (tetracycline, OR 13·1; amoxicillin, OR 6·5). In this study antimicrobial resistance in commensal E. coli was mainly associated with antimicrobial drug use.

Q fever is a notifiable disease in Germany. The majority of the reported cases are related to outbreaks. The objective of our study was to evaluate the general role of Q fever in community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). We investigated respiratory samples and sera from 255 patients with CAP, who were enrolled into a CAPNETZ cohort in summer 2005. Altogether, our data showed a significant prevalence of Q fever as CAP (3·5%). If a patient's condition leads to a diagnostic test for Chlamydophila sp., Mycoplasma sp. or Legionella sp., then a Q fever diagnostic test should also be included. In particular, ELISA as a first diagnostic step is easy to perform. PCR should be performed at an early stage of the disease if no antibodies are detectable. Because of our highly promising findings we suggest performing PCR in respiratory samples.

The spatial distribution of human cases of tick-borne diseases is probably determined by a combination of biological and socioeconomic factors. A zoonotic tick-borne pathogen, Ehrlichia chaffeensis, is increasing in human incidence in the USA. In this study, the spatial patterns of probable and confirmed E. chaffeensis-associated cases of ehrlichiosis from 2000 to 2011 were investigated at the zip-code level in Missouri. We applied spatial statistics, including global and local regression models, to investigate the biological and socioeconomic factors associated with human incidence. Our analysis confirms that the distribution of ehrlichiosis in Missouri is non-random, with numerous clusters of high incidence. Furthermore, we identified significant, but spatially variable, associations between incidence and both biological and socioeconomic factors, including a positive association with reservoir host density and a negative association with human population density. Improved understanding of local variation in these spatial factors may facilitate targeted interventions by public health authorities.

The incidence of rabies in livestock is an important factor for estimating the economic impact of the disease, but obtaining reliable data is hindered by inadequate surveillance. In order to understand the contribution of livestock rabies to the overall burden of disease, the rabies incidence in cattle was investigated in detail for Turkey between 2008 and 2011. Data were compiled on cattle numbers, samples submitted for rabies diagnosis, vaccinated animals and positive rabies cases in animals for seven regions in Turkey. Rabies incidence in cattle fluctuated annually and differed between regions from 0·10 to 3·87 cases/100 000 animals. The positive influence of compensation schemes was observed. Livestock losses were conservatively estimated at around $250 000 international dollars per annum, although in areas where compensation schemes are not operating this could be an underestimate of the economic burden. Vaccination of cattle remains an option for disease prevention, although oral rabies vaccination through aerially distributed baits should be implemented to prevent the further spread of fox-mediated rabies, which could result in much greater economic costs.

The frequency of sporadic cases of hepatitis E in humans in developed countries has increased in recent years. The consumption of raw or undercooked pig liver-based products has been identified as an important source of human infection. The question of possible massive human exposure to this zoonotic agent has been raised by the high prevalence of hepatitis E virus (HEV) in swine herds. However, little is known about the epidemiology of HEV on pig farms. A retrospective study, based on a previous prevalence study of 185 farms, was conducted on 90 farms located in Western France, randomly selected from this database, to identify factors associated with the presence of HEV in pig livers and HEV seroprevalence in slaughter-age pigs. At least one HEV RNA-positive liver was found in 30% of the sampled farms while seroprevalence in slaughter-age pigs at the farm level reached almost 75%. Different factors were associated with the two conditions. The risk of having HEV-positive livers was increased by early slaughter, genetic background, lack of hygiene measures and surface origin of drinking water. High HEV seroprevalence was associated with mingling practices at the nursery stage and hygiene conditions. These results can be used to determine on-farm measures to reduce within-farm HEV spread and infection of slaughter-age pigs.

An outbreak of haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) started on Medvednica mountain near Zagreb in January 2012. In order to detect the aetiological agent of the disease in small rodents and to make the link with the human outbreak, rodents were trapped at four different altitudes. Using nested RT–PCR, Puumala virus (PUUV) RNA was detected in 41/53 (77·4%) bank voles (Myodes glareolus) and Dobrava virus (DOBV) RNA was found in 6/61 (9·8%) yellow-necked mice (Apodemus flavicollis). Sequence analysis of a 341-nucleotide region of the PUUV S segment, obtained from all infected bank voles and five HFRS patients, showed 98·8–100% sequence similarity, indicating that the patients were probably exposed to PUUV on Medvednica mountain. A very large bank-vole population combined with an extremely high infection rate of PUUV was responsible for this unusual winter outbreak of HFRS in Croatia.

Crimean Congo haemorrhagic fever virus (CCHFV) is a bunyavirus with a single-stranded RNA genome consisting of three segments (S, M, L), coding for the nucleocapsid protein, envelope glycoproteins and RNA polymerase, respectively. To date only five complete genome sequences are available from southern African isolates. Complete genome sequences were generated for 10 southern African CCHFV isolates using next-generation sequencing techniques. The maximum-likelihood method was used to generate tree topologies for 15 southern African plus 26 geographically distinct complete sequences from GenBank. M segment reassortment was identified in 10/15 southern African isolates by incongruencies in grouping compared to the S and L segments. These reassortant M segments cluster with isolates from Asia/Middle East, while the S and L segments cluster with strains from South/West Africa. The CCHFV M segment shows a high level of genetic diversity, while the S and L segments appear to co-evolve. The reason for the high frequency of M segment reassortment is not known. It has previously been suggested that M segment reassortment results in a virus with high fitness but a clear role in increased pathogenicity has yet to be shown.

The impact of reactive school closure on an epidemic is uncertain, since it is not clear how an unplanned closure will affect social mixing patterns. The effect of school holidays on social mixing patterns is better understood. Here, we use mathematical models to explore the influence of the timing of school holidays on the final size and peak incidence of an influenza-like epidemic. A well-timed holiday can reduce the impact of an epidemic, in particular substantially reducing an epidemic's peak. Final size and peak incidence cannot both be minimized: a later holiday is optimal for minimizing the final size, while an earlier holiday minimizes peak incidence. Using social mixing data from the UK, we estimated that, had the 2009 influenza epidemic not been interrupted by the school summer holidays, the final size would have been about 20% larger and the peak about 170% higher.

We investigated the prevalence of β-lactamase genes and plasmid-mediated quinolone resistance (PMQR) determinants in 51 carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae (CRE) from five teaching hospitals in central China. The prevalence of carbapenem resistance in Enterobacteriaceae was 1·0% (51/5012). Of 51 CRE, 31 (60·8%) isolates were positive for one tested carbapenemase gene, while 10 (19·6%) were simultaneously positive for two tested carbapenemase genes. The positive rates of bla KPC-2, bla NDM-1, bla IMP-4, bla IMP-26 and bla IMP-8 were 54·9%, 17·6%, 11·8%, 11·8% and 3·9%, respectively. Of 10 CRE with two carbapenemase genes, three, five, one and one were positive for bla KPC-2 and bla IMP-4, bla KPC-2 and bla IMP-26, bla KPC-2 and bla IMP-8, and bla KPC-2 and bla NDM-1, respectively. Eight of nine bla NDM-1-positive isolates lacked carbapenemases by the modified Hodge test, while 27/28 isolates harbouring bla KPC-2 were positive for carbapenemases determined by this test; 41·2% of the CRE-positive isolates also harboured ESBL genes in various combinations (three and two positive for bla KPC-2 also carried bla DHA-1 and bla CMY-2). The positive rates of qnrS1, qnrA1, qnrB and aac-(6/)-Ib-cr in CRE were 25·5%, 9·8%, 23·5% and 15·7%, respectively. In particular, 7/9 isolates harbouring bla NDM-1 were positive for these quinolone resistance genes, of which five carried qnrS1 and two carried qnrS1 and qnrB4. All but two of 29 Klebsiella pneumoniae isolates were grouped into 20 clonal clusters by PFGE, with the predominant cluster accounting for four bla KPC-2-positive isolates distributed in the same hospital. We conclude that there is a high prevalence of bla NDM-1 and PMQR determinants in CRE isolates in central China. Multiple resistance determinants in various combinations co-exist in these strains and we report for the first time the co-existence of bla KPC-2 and bla IMP-26 in a strain of Klebsiella oxytoca.