Anticipating future migration trends is instrumental to the development of effective policies to manage the challenges and opportunities that arise from population movements. However, anticipation is challenging. Migration is a complex system, with multifaceted drivers, such as demographic structure, economic disparities, political instability, and climate change. Measurements encompass inherent uncertainties, and the majority of migration theories are either under-specified or hardly actionable. Moreover, approaches for forecasting generally target specific migration flows, and this poses challenges for generalisation.

In this paper, we present the results of a case study to predict Irregular Border Crossings (IBCs) through the Central Mediterranean Route and Asylum requests in Italy. We applied a set of Machine Learning techniques in combination with a suite of traditional data to forecast migration flows. We then applied an ensemble modelling approach for aggregating the results of the different Machine Learning models to improve the modelling prediction capacity.

Our results show the potential of this modelling architecture in producing forecasts of IBCs and Asylum requests over 6 months. The explained variance of our models through a validation set is as high as 80%. This study offers a robust basis for the construction of timely forecasts. In the discussion, we offer a comment on how this approach could benefit migration management in the European Union at various levels of policy making.

This article interrogates three claims made in relation to the use of data in relation to peace. That more data, faster data, and impartial data will lead to better policy and practice outcomes. Taken together, this data myth relies on a lack of curiosity about the provenance of data and the infrastructure that produces it and asserts its legitimacy. Our discussion is concerned with issues of power, inclusion, and exclusion, and particularly how knowledge hierarchies attend to the collection and use of data in relation to conflict-affected contexts. We therefore question the axiomatic nature of these data myth claims and argue that the structure and dynamics of peacebuilding actors perpetuate the myth. We advocate a fuller reflection of the data wave that has overtaken us and echo calls for an ethics of numbers. In other words, this article is concerned with the evidence base for evidence-based peacebuilding. Mindful of the policy implications of our concerns, the article puts forward five tenets of good practice in relation to data and the peacebuilding sector. The concluding discussion further considers the policy implications of the data myth in relation to peace, and particularly, the consequences of casting peace and conflict as technical issues that can be “solved” without recourse to human and political factors.

This analysis provides a critical account of AI governance in the modern “smart city” through a feminist lens. Evaluating the case of Sidewalk Labs’ Quayside project—a smart city development that was to be implemented in Toronto, Canada—it is argued that public–private partnerships can create harmful impacts when corporate actors seek to establish new “rules of the game” regarding data regulation. While the Quayside project was eventually abandoned in 2020, it demonstrates key observations for the state of urban algorithmic governance both within Canada and internationally. Articulating the need for a revitalised and participatory smart city governance programme prioritizes meaningful engagement in the forms of transparency and accountability measures. Taking a feminist lens, it argues for a two-pronged approach to governance: integrating collective engagement from the outset in the design process and ensuring the civilian data protection through a robust yet localized rights-based privacy regulation strategy. Engaging with feminist theories of intersectionality in relation to technology and data collection, this framework articulates the need to understand the broader histories of social marginalization when implementing governance strategies regarding artificial intelligence in cities.

The international community, and the UN in particular, is in urgent need of wise policies, and a regulatory institution to put data-based systems, notably AI, to positive use and guard against their abuse. Digital transformation and “artificial intelligence (AI)”—which can more adequately be called “data-based systems (DS)”—present ethical opportunities and risks. Helping humans and the planet to flourish sustainably in peace and guaranteeing globally that human dignity is respected not only offline but also online, in the digital sphere, and the domain of DS requires two policy measures: (1) human rights-based data-based systems (HRBDS) and (2) an International Data-Based Systems Agency (IDA): IDA should be established at the UN as a platform for cooperation in the field of digital transformation and DS, fostering human rights, security, and peaceful uses of DS.

A multi-year process of debate around draft articles for a Crimes Against Humanity Treaty is underway and calls to categorize gender-based persecution as a stand-alone crime and to codify gender apartheid form fundamental aspects of discussion. These developments in international criminal law are significant to anticipate forced migration as recent changes in asylum regulations across the EU suggest. Between December 2022 and February 2023, Sweden, Finland, and Denmark moved to grant asylum to women and girls from Afghanistan on general risks of gender-based persecution. This falls in line with the EU Agency for Asylum establishing that the accumulation of repressive measures against women and girls in the country, which have been described as gender apartheid, amounts to persecution. In efforts to offer new perspectives on foresight in forced migration, I use case study method and legal-institutional analysis to delineate migration scenarios for gender apartheid and asylum. On the example of Afghanistan, I compare Sweden, Finland, and Denmark as case studies in which asylum is granted to women and girls on general risks of gender-based persecution in contrast to Germany and France as case studies for main destination countries of Afghan asylum-seekers absent of such policies. I explore factors towards policy in/action and provide outlooks for further lines of inquiry regarding anticipatory methods in forced migration.

Coronavirus disease-2019 precipitated the rapid deployment of novel therapeutics, which led to operational and logistical challenges for healthcare organizations. Four health systems participated in a qualitative study to abstract lessons learned, challenges, and promising practices from implementing neutralizing monoclonal antibody (nMAb) treatment programs. Lessons are summarized under three themes that serve as critical building blocks for health systems to rapidly deploy novel therapeutics during a pandemic: (1) clinical workflows, (2) data infrastructure and platforms, and (3) governance and policy. Health systems must be sufficiently agile to quickly scale programs and resources in times of uncertainty. Real-time monitoring of programs, policies, and processes can help support better planning and improve program effectiveness. The lessons and promising practices shared in this study can be applied by health systems for distribution of novel therapeutics beyond nMAbs and toward future pandemics and public health emergencies.

Public procurement is a fundamental aspect of public administration. Its vast size makes its oversight and control very challenging, especially in countries where resources for these activities are limited. To support decisions and operations at public procurement oversight agencies, we developed and delivered VigIA, a data-based tool with two main components: (i) machine learning models to detect inefficiencies measured as cost overruns and delivery delays, and (ii) risk indices to detect irregularities in the procurement process. These two components cover complementary aspects of the procurement process, considering both active and passive waste, and help the oversight agencies to prioritize investigations and allocate resources. We show how the models developed shed light on specific features of the contracts to be considered and how their values signal red flags. We also highlight how these values change when the analysis focuses on specific contract types or on information available for early detection. Moreover, the models and indices developed only make use of open data and target variables generated by the procurement processes themselves, making them ideal to support continuous decisions at overseeing agencies.

In our digitalized modern society where cyber-physical systems and internet-of-things (IoT) devices are increasingly commonplace, it is paramount that we are able to assure the cybersecurity of the systems that we rely on. As a fundamental policy, we join the advocates of multilayered cybersecurity measures, where resilience is built into IoT systems by relying on multiple defensive techniques. While existing legislation such as the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) also takes this stance, the technical implementation of these measures is left open. This invites research into the landscape of multilayered defensive measures, and within this problem space, we focus on two defensive measures: obfuscation and diversification. In this study, through a literature review, we situate these measures within the broader IoT cybersecurity landscape and show how they operate with other security measures built on the network and within IoT devices themselves. Our findings highlight that obfuscation and diversification show promise in contributing to a cost-effective robust cybersecurity ecosystem in today’s diverse cyber threat landscape.

Several African countries are developing artificial intelligence (AI) strategies and ethics frameworks with the goal of accelerating responsible AI development and adoption. However, many of these governance actions are emerging without consideration for their suitability to local contexts, including whether the proposed policies are feasible to implement and what their impact may be on regulatory outcomes. In response, we suggest that there is a need for more explicit policy learning, by looking at existing governance capabilities and experiences related to algorithms, automation, data, and digital technology in other countries and in adjacent sectors. From such learning, it will be possible to identify where existing capabilities may be adapted or strengthened to address current AI-related opportunities and risks. This paper explores the potential for learning by analysing existing policy and legislation in twelve African countries across three main areas: strategy and multi-stakeholder engagement, human dignity and autonomy, and sector-specific governance. The findings point to a variety of existing capabilities that could be relevant to responsible AI; from existing model management procedures used in banking and air quality assessment to efforts aimed at enhancing public sector skills and transparency around public–private partnerships, and the way in which existing electronic transactions legislation addresses accountability and human oversight. All of these point to the benefit of wider engagement on how existing governance mechanisms are working, and on where AI-specific adjustments or new instruments may be needed.

Can trust norms within the African moral system support data gathering for Generative AI (GenAI) development in African society? Recent developments in the field of large language models, such as GenAI, including models like ChatGPT and Midjourney, have identified a common issue with these GenAI models known as “AI hallucination,” which involves the presentation of misinformation as facts along with its potential downside of facilitating public distrust in AI performance. In the African context, this paper frames unsupportive data-gathering norms as a contributory factor to issues such as AI hallucination and investigates the following claims. First, this paper explores the claim that knowledge in the African context exists in both esoteric and exoteric forms, incorporating such diverse knowledge as data could imply that a GenAI tailored for Africa may have unlimited accessibility across all contexts. Second, this paper acknowledges the formidable challenge of amassing a substantial volume of data, which encompasses esoteric information, requisite for the development of a GenAI model, positing that the establishment of a foundational framework for data collection, rooted in trust norms that is culturally resonant, has the potential to engender trust dynamics between data providers and collectors. Lastly, this paper recommends that trust norms in the African context require recalibration to align with contemporary social progress, while preserving their core values, to accommodate innovative data-gathering methodologies for a GenAI tailored to the African setting. This paper contributes to how trust culture within the African context, particularly in the domain of GenAI for African society, propels the development of Afro-AI technologies.

This article examines the National Health Data Network (RNDS), the platform launched by the Ministry of Health in Brazil as the primary tool for its Digital Health Strategy 2020–2028, including innovation aspects. The analysis is made through two distinct frameworks: Right to health and personal data protection in Brazil. The first approach is rooted in the legal framework shaped by Brazil’s trajectory on health since 1988, marked by the formal acknowledgment of the Right to health and the establishment of the Unified Health System, Brazil’s universal access health system, encompassing public healthcare and public health actions. The second approach stems from the repercussions of the General Data Protection Law, enacted in 2018 and the inclusion of Right to personal data protection in Brazilian’s Constitution. This legislation, akin to the EU’s General Data Protection Regulations, addressed the gap in personal data protection in Brazil and established principles and rules for data processing. The article begins by explanting the two approaches, and then it provides a brief history of health informatics policies in Brazil, leading to the current Digital Health Strategy and the RNDS. Subsequently, it delves into an analysis of the RNDS through the lenses of the two aforementioned approaches. In the final discussion sections, the article attempts to extract lessons from the analyses, particularly in light of ongoing discussions such as the secondary use of data for innovation in the context of different interpretations about innovation policies.

Usage data on research outputs such as books and journals is well established in the scholarly community. Yet, as research impact is derived from a broader set of scholarly outputs, such as data, code, and multimedia, more holistic usage and impact metrics could inform national innovation and research policy. While usage data reporting standards, such as Project COUNTER, provide the basis for shared statistics reporting practice, mandated access to publicly funded research has increased the demand for impact metrics and analytics. In this context, stakeholders are exploring how to scaffold and strengthen shared infrastructure to better support the trusted, multistakeholder exchange of usage data across a variety of outputs. In April 2023, a workshop on Exploring National Infrastructure for Public Access and Impact Reporting supported by the United States (US) National Science Foundation (NSF) explored these issues. This paper contextualizes the resources shared and recommendations generated in the workshop.

This paper questions how the drive toward introducing artificial intelligence (AI) in all facets of life might endanger certain African ethical values. It argues in the affirmative that indeed two primary values that are prized in nearly all versions of sub-Saharan African ethics (available in the literature) might sit in direct opposition to the fundamental motivation of corporate adoption of AI; these values are Afro-communitarianism grounded on relationality, and human dignity grounded on a normative conception of personhood. This paper offers a unique perspective on AI ethics from the African place, as there is little to no material in the literature that discusses the implications of AI on African ethical values. The paper is divided into two broad sections that are focused on (i) describing the values at risk from AI and (ii) showing how the current use of AI undermines these said values. In conclusion, I suggest how to prioritize these values in working toward the establishment of an African AI ethics framework.

In the mid to late 19th century, much of Africa was under colonial rule, with the colonisers exercising power over the labour and territory of Africa. However, as much as Africa has predominantly gained independence from traditional colonial rule, another form of colonial rule still dominates the African landscape. This similitude of these different forms of colonialism is found in the power dominance exhibited by Western technological corporations, just like the traditional colonialists. In this digital age, digital colonialism manifests in Africa through the control and ownership of critical digital infrastructure by foreign entities, leading to unequal data flow and asymmetrical power dynamics. This usually occurs under the guise of foreign corporations providing technological assistance to the continent.

By drawing references from the African continent, this article examines the manifestations of digital colonialism and the factors that aid its occurrence on the continent. It further explores the manifestations of digital colonialism in technologies such as Artificial Intelligence (AI) while analysing the occurrence of data exploitation on the continent and the need for African ownership in cultivating the digital future of the African continent. The paper also recognises the benefits linked to the use of AI and makes a cautious approach toward the deployment of AI tools in Africa. It then concludes by recommending the implementation of laws, regulations, and policies that guarantee the inclusiveness, transparency, and ethical values of new technologies, with strategies toward achieving a decolonised digital future on the African continent.

Nigeria has a significant gender financial inclusion gap with women disproportionately represented among the financially excluded. Artificial intelligence (AI) powered financial technologies (fintech) present distinctive advantages for enhancing women’s inclusion. This includes efficiency gains, reduced transaction costs, and personalized services tailored to women’s needs. Nonetheless, AI harbours a paradox. While it promises to address financial inclusion, it can also inadvertently perpetuate and amplify gender bias. The critical question is thus, how can AI effectively address the challenges of women’s financial exclusion in Nigeria? Using publicly available data, this research undertakes a qualitative analysis of AI-powered Fintech services in Nigeria. Its objective is to understand how innovations in financial services correspond to the needs of potential users like unbanked or underserved women. The research finds that introducing innovative financial services and technology is insufficient to ensure inclusion. Financial inclusion requires the availability, accessibility, affordability, appropriateness, sustainability, and alignment of services with the needs of potential users, and policy-driven strategies that aid inclusion.

In the literature, there are polarized views regarding the capabilities of technology to embed societal values. One aisle of the debate contends that technical artifacts are value-neutral since values are not peculiar to inanimate objects. Scholars on the other side of the aisle argue that technologies tend to be value-laden. With the call to embed ethical values in technology, this article explores how AI and other adjacent technologies are designed and developed to foster social justice. Drawing insights from prior studies, this paper identifies seven African moral values considered central to actualizing social justice; of these, two stand out—respect for diversity and ethnic neutrality. By introducing use case analysis along with the Discovery, Translation, and Verification (DTV) framework and validating via Focus Group Discussion, this study revealed novel findings: first, ethical value analysis is best carried out alongside software system analysis. Second, to embed ethics in technology, interdisciplinary expertise is required. Third, the DTV approach combined with the software engineering methodology provides a promising way to embed moral values in technology. Against this backdrop, the two highlighted ethical values—respect for diversity and ethnic neutrality—help ground the pursuit of social justice.

The EUMigraTool (EMT) provides short-term and mid-term predictions of asylum seekers arriving in the European Union, drawing on multiple sources of public information and with a focus on human rights. After 3 years of development, it has been tested in real environments by 17 NGOs working with migrants in Spain, Italy, and Greece.

This paper will first describe the functionalities, models, and features of the EMT. It will then analyze the main challenges and limitations of developing a tool for non-profit organizations, focusing on issues such as (1) the validation process and accuracy, and (2) the main ethical concerns, including the challenging exploitation plan when the main target group are NGOs.

The overall purpose of this paper is to share the results and lessons learned from the creation of the EMT, and to reflect on the main elements that need to be considered when developing a predictive tool for assisting NGOs in the field of migration.

Improved health data governance is urgently needed due to the increasing use of digital technologies that facilitate the collection of health data and growing demand to use that data in artificial intelligence (AI) models that contribute to improving health outcomes. While most of the discussion around health data governance is focused on policy and regulation, we present a practical perspective. We focus on the context of low-resource government health systems, using first-hand experience of the Zanzibar health system as a specific case study, and examine three aspects of data governance: informed consent, data access and security, and data quality. We discuss the barriers to obtaining meaningful informed consent, highlighting the need for more research to determine how to effectively communicate about data and AI and to design effective consent processes. We then report on the process of introducing data access management and information security guidelines into the Zanzibar health system, demonstrating the gaps in capacity and resources that must be addressed during the implementation of a health data governance policy in a low-resource government system. Finally, we discuss the quality of service delivery data in low-resource health systems such as Zanzibar’s, highlighting that a large quantity of data does not necessarily ensure its suitability for AI development. Poor data quality can be addressed to some extent through improved data governance, but the problem is inextricably linked to the weakness of a health system, and therefore AI-quality data cannot be obtained through technological or data governance measures alone.

Discussions of the development and governance of data-driven systems have, of late, come to revolve around questions of trust and trustworthiness. However, the connections between them remain relatively understudied and, more importantly, the conditions under which the latter quality of trustworthiness might reliably lead to the placing of ‘well-directed’ trust. In this paper, we argue that this challenge for the creation of ‘rich’ trustworthiness, which we term the Trustworthiness Recognition Problem, can usefully be approached as a problem of effective signalling, and suggest that its resolution can be informed by a multidisciplinary approach that relies on insights from economics and behavioural ecology. We suggest, overall, that the domain specificity inherent to the signalling theory paradigm offers an effective solution to the TRP, which we believe will be foundational to whether and how rapidly improving technologies are integrated in the healthcare space. We suggest that solving the TRP will not be possible without taking an interdisciplinary approach and suggest further avenues of inquiry that we believe will be fruitful.