This paper provides the model, analysis, and results of the investigative research by the U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC) staff on the U.S. lamb market impacts from the countervailing duty (CVD) order imposed on certain U.S. imports of New Zealand lamb meat during 1985–90. Presented here are the monthly three-stage least squares model of the U.S. lamb meat industry at the wholesale or meat-packing level, along with the econometric results and analyses obtained from the USITC investigation. Analysis of model results quantifies average estimated CVD-attributed effects on U.S. lamb price, demand and supply of domestically produced lamb, and U.S. lamb import levels. A number of economic parameter estimates and inference results concerning U.S. wholesale lamb market relationships are reported and are of interest, given the scarce published research on the U.S. lamb industry.

Sensitivity of the general public to pollution of air, water and land has been rapidly increasing as urban development spreads into rural areas of Maryland, the Northeast and the nation. Among the rural groups who have become vitally concerned with this situation are dairy farmers. They are especially concerned over impending regulations for handling animal wastes and the possible effect on the economics of dairy operations.

This paper estimates single-index model (SIM) beta coefficients for the major cash crops of Ontario's agricultural-producing counties. Beta coefficients are estimated using per acre gross revenues weighted by (1) the proportion of each crop planted in each county and (2) equal weights. The results show that sometimes substantial differences arise from these procedures. Implications for government policy and farm-level risk-management strategies are discussed. A practical approach for using SIM for farm management purposes is presented and the effects of systematic and nonsystematic risk are discussed.

The signing of the Uruguay Round agreement on agriculture (URAA) in 1994 was a significant step towards the liberalization of world agricultural trade. A new round of negotiations on agriculture is scheduled to begin under the auspices of the World Trade Organization (WTO) at the end of 1999. This paper discusses the likely agenda of those negotiations and their implications for agriculture in the northeastern United States.

It was an unexpected pleasure to be invited to speak before the opening session of the Northeast Agricultural Economics Council. I assume that I am not here on the strength of my earlier writings on “American Triracial Isolates” or “The Increase in Divorce Among Separated Persons as a Factor in Divorce Since 1940”. Clearly it is the perceived significance of shifts in the distribution of population in this decade that brings a demographer — and a noneconomic one at that — to occupy this place on your program.

Lesser developed countries (LDCs) serve as both customers and competitors for agricultural commodities produced in the Southern region of the United States. This paper focuses on the impacts of LDCs on exports of the major agricultural commodities produced in the South (cotton, rice, tobacco, poultry, and, to a lesser extent, citrus and peanuts). First the importance of LDCs as export markets for Southern commodities is explored. Then the role LDCs play as producers and exporters of these commodities is considered. Finally, these separate roles are combined into an index of LDC competitiveness with Southern agricultural commodities. Data analysis shows that Southern agricultural interests truly are divided over the role LDCs play in Southern agriculture, where poultry and rice rank highest, and peanuts lowest, in terms of a LDC markets/competition index. Thus, it is not surprising that calls for protectionism (e.g., the Bumpers' Amendment) should arise from the South.

Since 1980, incremental state and national policy decisions concerning public higher education have had a variety of effects on students and institutions. Although there has been very little research, most of these effects appear to be detrimental to the health of the system of public higher education and to the nation's stock of human capital. A thorough economic analysis of the effects of policy changes on public higher education is needed to guide the system into the 21st century.

An interregional competition model of the U.S. apple industry is constructed. This model includes the consumer products of fresh apples, applesauce and apple juice. The validation of the model showed that it did a good job of estimating consumer's quantity demanded and prices and a reasonable job of estimating utilization. This model was used to study the effects of transportation cost changes on the industry in the short- and intermediate run. The total production and consumption levels changed by moderate amounts with changing transport costs while the utilization of a region's crop was quite sensitive to such changes.

Experimental economics has the potential to fill some of the gaps in the economist's tool kit. This article describes experimental economics, its advantages and disadvantages, and why this tool might be a good choice in some situations. The article summarizes the history of its use by agricultural and resource economists. An illustrative example compares laboratory experiment data with survey data.

Decision support systems are generally geared to short-term tactical decision making. As an alternative, this paper develops a mathematical programming model to evaluate long-term strategic alternatives in the context of farm-level agricultural production where a broiler farm considers long-term implications of diversification into commercial aquaculture. The model considers a ten-year strategic planning horizon, incorporates financial risk and return considerations, and accommodates capacity variations. Results indicate that a diversification strategy significantly increases farm profitability over a strategic planning horizon while simultaneously maintaining financial risk below a predetermined tolerance level and return on investment above a predetermined level.

Social critics have taken aim at modern production agriculture using a common theme: many food, health, and environmental problems are explained by corporate farms, agribusinesses, and fast-food restaurants failing to account for the full costs of their actions. How accurate is this diagnosis? How feasible is the assumption that these externalities are most effectively mitigated via Pigovian taxes and subsidies? Drawing on my experiences at a National Institute of Medicine meeting on the subject, I seek to clarify the definition and nature of externalities and discuss situations in which public policy is most and least effective in efficiently making “hidden” costs of food visible.

A group incentive program to encourage farmer adoption of best management practices is simulated for a typical watershed in central Illinois. The incentive payments, program costs and environmental impacts of the program are simulated. The results show that the best management practices may not actually reduce farm profits but may increase farm profits and reduce environmental pollution. The sponsor in most cases may not have to pay anything under the incentive contract. This may bring about a win-win situation for the sponsor, the farmer participating in the program, and society as a whole. The program could be implemented as an educational effort to demonstrate the benefits of sound management practices.

We use a stated choice experiment to estimate household willingness-to-pay for a program providing incentives to private forest land owners in the Red Hills region of southwest Georgia and northwest Florida. The estimated values of various program attributes inform a landscape analysis that identifies high-priority private forest land that could be targeted for conservation incentives. Households report an increase in utility from the program when it explicitly identifies a target ecosystem-service priority. Also, inclusion of stated preference values in the prioritization plan highlights a potential scarcity effect that has important implications for conservation targeting.

Land-use conflicts highlight several myths about property rights. The central myth is that property rights are linked to natural rights, that property rights are durable and unchanging, and that any interference with these property rights requires public compensation. However, particular settings and circumstances lead to conflicting rights claims which the courts must sort through to determine where the more compelling rights claim resides. Situations are not protected because they have property rights. Rather, those situations found worthy of protection by the courts acquire the status of a property right. Property rights are not discovered, but are created by the courts. Applied economists must build models of property rights conflicts predicated upon an epistemology of volitional pragmatism.

An issue for generic advertising in agricultural markets with unregulated supplies is that the promotion-induced demand shift could lead to a supply response that substantially attenuates the price effects of the promotion. For the generic promotion of fish exports, however, the concern is generally just the opposite—the possibility that extensive government supply controls could render promotion efforts to expand export sales ineffectual due to little or no supply response. This study considers the effects of government whitefish (cod, haddock, and others) supply controls on the effectiveness of the Norwegian Seafood Council (NSC) whitefish export promotion program. We use an econometric simulation model to measure the effectiveness and returns to NSC whitefish export promotion under a range of possible export supply control conditions. Results indicate that effective supply control maximizes the return to promotion and that ineffectual supply control imposes a potentially large opportunity cost on the promoting industry.

Price expectations play a critical role in commodity markets where producers must make input decisions well before output is realized. This paper brings together alternative expectations regimes, their estimation, and hypothesis tests for use in structural commodity models to determine their use by commodity producers. Extrapolative mechanisms and rational expectations are considered under risk neutrality and risk aversion. The assumptions implicit in the use of aggregate data in these models are made explicit. Structural models using individual survey data are discussed. While Muth's rational expectations hypothesis has found widespread acceptance in the macroeconomic literature, empirical results from industry studies indicate that commodity producers may have heterogeneous price expectations, with no single expectations hypothesis dominating. This is not surprising given that different producers possess different information and have different costs associated with information collection and processing.

This paper presents estimates of technical efficiency in milk production based on Farrell's non-parametric frontier production function methodology. Data from a sample of Maine and Vermont dairy farms, included in the ELFAC business analysis for 1979, were used to derive Efficient Unit Isoquants for capital-labor and concentrate feed-roughage combinations. The analysis indicates that milk production in Maine and Vermont farms was characterized by significant technical inefficiencies during 1979.

The benefits to Florida orange growers of generic orange juice advertising are assessed using additive, nonlinear, regional econometric models, measuring the impact of category and brand marketing efforts on category demand while controlling for pricing and various other factors. The study shows that generic marketing efforts increased orange juice category demand by 8.3 percent, resulting in increased orange prices and a benefit-to-cost ratio to Florida growers of 3.5 to 1. Branded promotional activity was found to primarily fuel brand switching and pantry-loading, with only modest impacts on overall category demand.

Stochastic simulation and generalized stochastic dominance are used to compare the risk-return properties of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange feeder cattle futures contract with those of the feeder cattle put option contract. Cash marketing, futures, and option strategies are analyzed for four backgrounding systems common to the mid-south region of the United States. The results show that at-the-money put option strategies dominate corresponding futures contract strategies according to generalized stochastic dominance. This implies that at-the-money put option contracts are superior to feeder cattle futures contracts for risk-averse backgrounders in the mid-south region of the United States.

Survey data from Southeastern Pennsylvania is used to estimate the costs of current mushroom pest management practices. Pest management costs represent a sizeable proportion of the variable costs of producing mushrooms. The practices found are highly variable with costs ranging from $.04 to $.58 per square foot. The frequency of outside applications and steam use before and after the crop are the most significant practices influencing production costs.