In design-based stereology, fixed parameters (such as volume, surface area, curve length, feature number, connectivity) of a non-random geometrical object are estimated by intersecting the object with randomly located and oriented geometrical probes (e.g. test slabs, planes, lines, points). Estimation accuracy may in principle be increased by increasing the number of probes, which are usually laid in a systematic pattern. An important prerequisite to increase accuracy, however, is that the relevant estimators are unbiased and consistent. The purpose of this paper is therefore to give sufficient conditions for the unbiasedness and strong consistency of design-based stereological estimators obtained by systematic sampling. Relevant mechanisms to increase sample size, compatible with stereological practice, are considered.

In this paper we analyze the first-order behavior (that is, the right-sided derivative) of the volume of the dilation A⊕tQ as t converges to 0. Here A and Q are subsets of n-dimensional Euclidean space, A has finite perimeter, and Q is finite. If Q consists of two points only, n and n+u, say, this derivative coincides up to a sign with the directional derivative of the covariogram of A in direction u. By known results for the covariogram, this derivative can therefore be expressed by the cosine transform of the surface area measure of A. We extend this result to finite sets Q and use it to determine the derivative of the contact distribution function with finite structuring element of a stationary random set at 0. The proofs are based on an approximation of the indicator function of A by smooth functions of bounded variation.

We propose a class of random scale-free spatial networks with nested community structures called SHEM and analyze Reed–Frost epidemics with community related independent transmissions. We show that in a specific example of the SHEM the epidemic threshold may be trivial or not as a function of the relation among community sizes, distribution of the number of communities, and transmission rates.

The full-information duration problem with a random number N of objects is considered. These objects appear sequentially and their values Xk are observed, where Xk, independent of N, are independent and identically distributed random variables from a known continuous distribution. The objective of the problem is to find a stopping rule that maximizes the duration of holding a relative maximum (e.g. the kth object is a relative maximum if Xk = max{X1, X2, . . ., Xk}). We assume that N is a random variable with a known upper bound n, so two models, Model 1 and Model 2, can be considered according to whether the planning horizon is N or n. The structure of the optimal rule, which depends on the prior distribution assumed on N, is examined. The monotone rule is defined and a necessary and sufficient condition for the optimal rule to be monotone is given for both models. Special attention is paid to the class of priors such that N / n converges, as n → ∞, to a random variable Vm having density fVm(v) = m(1 - v)m-1, 0 ≤ v ≤ 1 for a positive integer m. An interesting feature is that the optimal duration (relative to n) for Model 2 is just (m + 1) times as large as that for Model 1 asymptotically.

The best-choice problem and the duration problem, known as versions of the secretary problem, are concerned with choosing an object from those that appear sequentially. Let (B,p) denote the best-choice problem and (D,p) the duration problem when the total number N of objects is a bounded random variable with prior p=(p1, p2,...,pn) for a known upper bound n. Gnedin (2005) discovered the correspondence relation between these two quite different optimal stopping problems. That is, for any given prior p, there exists another prior q such that (D,p) is equivalent to (B,q). In this paper, motivated by his discovery, we attempt to find the alternate correspondence {p(m),m≥0}, i.e. an infinite sequence of priors such that (D,p(m-1)) is equivalent to (B,p(m)) for all m≥1, starting with p(0)=(0,...,0,1). To be more precise, the duration problem is distinguished into (D1,p) or (D2,p), referred to as model 1 or model 2, depending on whether the planning horizon is N or n. The aforementioned problem is model 1. For model 2 as well, we can find the similar alternate correspondence {p[m],m≥ 0}. We treat both the no-information model and the full-information model and examine the limiting behaviors of their optimal rules and optimal values related to the alternate correspondences as n→∞. A generalization of the no-information model is given. It is worth mentioning that the alternate correspondences for model 1 and model 2 are respectively related to the urn sampling models without replacement and with replacement.

We consider a k-component system where the failure rates of the components interact, but where interaction depends only on the current ages of the components. The stationary behaviour of such systems has been studied by, for example, Franken and Streller (1980). Our main aim is to study the transient behaviour, and in particular to show that under easily verifiable conditions the transient behaviour tends to a stationary situation.

We show that the simple characterizations given by Takahashi for the independence and the total dependence of a multivariate extreme value distribution do not hold for the larger class of maximum infinitely divisible (max i.d.) distributions. This holds also for sup self-decomposable distributions.

We obtain series expansions of the q-scale functions of arbitrary spectrally negative Lévy processes, including processes with infinite jump activity, and use these to derive various new examples of explicit q-scale functions. Moreover, we study smoothness properties of the q-scale functions of spectrally negative Lévy processes with infinite jump activity. This complements previous results of Chan et al. (Prob. Theory Relat. Fields 150, 2011) for spectrally negative Lévy processes with Gaussian component or bounded variation.

We consider infinitely wide multi-layer perceptrons (MLPs) which are limits of standard deep feed-forward neural networks. We assume that, for each layer, the weights of an MLP are initialized with independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) samples from either a light-tailed (finite-variance) or a heavy-tailed distribution in the domain of attraction of a symmetric $\alpha$-stable distribution, where $\alpha\in(0,2]$ may depend on the layer. For the bias terms of the layer, we assume i.i.d. initializations with a symmetric $\alpha$-stable distribution having the same $\alpha$ parameter as that layer. Non-stable heavy-tailed weight distributions are important since they have been empirically seen to emerge in trained deep neural nets such as the ResNet and VGG series, and proven to naturally arise via stochastic gradient descent. The introduction of heavy-tailed weights broadens the class of priors in Bayesian neural networks. In this work we extend a recent result of Favaro, Fortini, and Peluchetti (2020) to show that the vector of pre-activation values at all nodes of a given hidden layer converges in the limit, under a suitable scaling, to a vector of i.i.d. random variables with symmetric $\alpha$-stable distributions, $\alpha\in(0,2]$.

We consider a gradual-impulse control problem of continuous-time Markov decision processes, where the system performance is measured by the expectation of the exponential utility of the total cost. We show, under natural conditions on the system primitives, the existence of a deterministic stationary optimal policy out of a more general class of policies that allow multiple simultaneous impulses, randomized selection of impulses with random effects, and accumulation of jumps. After characterizing the value function using the optimality equation, we reduce the gradual-impulse control problem to an equivalent simple discrete-time Markov decision process, whose action space is the union of the sets of gradual and impulsive actions.

We use a simple coupling to prove the classical result that the renewal function U of a zero-delayed renewal process satisfies U(t) – λ . t→λ2μ2/2 as t→∞ if the life-length distribution is of non-lattice type and has finite first and second moments μ and μ2 respectively; λ is the renewal intensity, and is equal to 1/μ.

We consider point process convergence for sequences of independent and identically distributed random walks. The objective is to derive asymptotic theory for the largest extremes of these random walks. We show convergence of the maximum random walk to the Gumbel or the Fréchet distributions. The proofs depend heavily on precise large deviation results for sums of independent random variables with a finite moment generating function or with a subexponential distribution.

We consider a service system (QS) that operates according to the first-come-first-served (FCFS) discipline, and in which the service rate is an increasing function of the queue length. Customers arrive sequentially at the system, and decide whether or not to join using decision rules based upon the queue length on arrival. Each customer is interested in selecting a rule that meets a certain optimality criterion with regard to their expected sojourn time in the system; as a consequence, the decision rules of other customers must be taken into account. Within a particular class of decision rules for an associated infinite-player game, the structure of the Nash equilibrium routeing policies is characterized. We prove that, within this class, there exist a finite number of Nash equilibria, and that at least one of these is nonrandomized. Finally, with the aid of simulation experiments, we explore the extent to which the Nash equilibria are characteristic of customer joining behaviour under a learning rule based on system-wide data.

We elucidate the long-term behavior of failure rates for a broad class of frailty models in survival analysis. The class properly includes the proportional hazard frailty model, the additive frailty model, and the accelerated failure time frailty model. A complete asymptotic expansion is derived and compared with the corresponding result for the limiting behavior obtained by Finkelstein and Esaulova (2006a). Several examples are provided to facilitate the comparison and to illustrate both the applicability and the limitations of our approach.

We consider residue expansions for survival and density/mass functions of first-passage distributions in finite-state semi-Markov processes (SMPs) in continuous and integer time. Conditions are given which guarantee that the residue expansions for these functions have a dominant exponential/geometric term. The key condition assumes that the relevant states for first passage contain an irreducible class, thus ensuring the same sort of dominant exponential/geometric terms as one gets for phase-type distributions in Markov processes. Essentially, the presence of an irreducible class along with some other conditions ensures that the boundary singularity b for the moment generating function (MGF) of the first-passage-time distribution is a simple pole. In the continuous-time setting we prove that b is a dominant pole, in that the MGF has no other pole on the vertical line $\{\text{Re}(s)=b\}.$ In integer time we prove that b is dominant if all holding-time mass functions for the SMP are aperiodic and non-degenerate. The expansions and pole characterisations address first passage to a single new state or a subset of new states, and first return to the starting state. Numerical examples demonstrate that the residue expansions are considerably more accurate than saddlepoint approximations and can provide a substitute for exact computation above the 75th percentile.

Many disordered random systems in applications can be described by N randomly coupled Ito stochastic differential equations in :

where is a sequence of independent copies of the one-dimensional Brownian motion W and ( is a sequence of independent copies of the ℝp-valued random vector ξ. We show that under suitable conditions on the functions b, σ, K and Φ the dynamical behaviour of this system in the N → (limit can be described by the non-linear stochastic differential equation

where P(t, dx dy) is the joint probability law of ξ and X(t).