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This chapter examines the contemporary or background conditions that are associated with the occurrence of revolutionary terrorism. The production of violence is constrained by state repression and fostered by social support. It is argued that social support is more important than state capacity, which, in general, was similar across the countries. Several indicators of potential social support are included in the analysis: participation in demonstrations and strikes, support for communist parties, levels of inequality, and size of the public sector. Additionally, several controls are included: level of economic development, economic growth, population size, and youth bulges. The main conclusion of this preliminary analysis is that revolutionary terrorism was more intense in highly populated countries with strong communist parties, a high degree of protest, and mobilization. Moreover, these were the countries that in the late 1960s had relatively backward economies, smaller states, and higher rates of growth.
This study analyses congruence across various issues in 16 European democracies. Making use of public opinion and expert survey data, our analyses show that congruence between the policy preferences of citizens and the stances of governments is much more complex than what is revealed by studies focusing on ideology solely. Size and directions of incongruence are larger and more systematic on specific issues than on the left–right scale. On redistribution, citizens are more to the left than their governments, while popular support for European integration is systematically lower among citizens than among their representatives. Moreover, the relatively poor are particularly underrepresented on redistribution, while the preferences of the relatively lower educated are not well reflected in government preferences in relation to European integration. We interpret these results as being partly linked to a representation gap with privileged social groups enjoying higher levels of congruence with their government.
This chapter introduces the long-term explanation of political violence. There is a strikingly strong correlation between the intensity of revolutionary terrorism from 1970 to 2000 and the development paths of the interwar period. To characterize these development paths, six variables are employed: past anarchist terrorism, democratic breakdowns, civil wars, land inequality, type of capitalism, and industrial transition (the year in which the industrial labor force exceeded that of agriculture). These variables are summarized in a latent variable thanks to factor analysis. This latent variable can be interpreted as the degree of liberalism of the development path followed by countries. The historical variables are not only significant when included with contemporary variables, but they make the contemporary ones non-significant. The statistical analysis shows that in an analysis of historical variables plus population, almost all the cross-national variation in the intensity of revolutionary terrorism can be explained. This relationship is extremely robust.
This chapter presents the major cases of revolutionary terrorism in Italy, Spain, Germany, and Japan; there is also a brief analysis of two intermediate cases, Greece and Portugal. In each case, the process that goes from radical student protest to the formation of underground armed groups is examined in detail. Armed groups were formed when participation in protest was declining. Due to their underground nature, these groups became isolated from social movements and often engaged in self-referential attacks, where violence was carried out not in the name of the original ideological motivation, but as a means to secure the reproduction and survival of the group.
The final chapter discusses the possible existence of an omitted variable that could explain both the development paths followed by affluent countries in the interwar period and the intensity of revolutionary terrorism from 1970 to 2000. The level of individualism as an omitted variable is explored. "Individualism" here is defined as the autonomy of the individual vis-à-vis social groups, such as the family. The general hypothesis establishes that countries with a stronger tradition of individualism were better prepared for the introduction of capitalism and liberal democracy. Due to a greater elective affinity between cultural variables and economic and political developments, countries in which individualism was stronger underwent more peaceful modernization processes. The cross-national measurements of individualism are taken into account, showing a strong association with interwar development paths and revolutionary terrorism. In order to address the standard endogeneity objection, remote indicators of individualism (grammar rules and family rules of inheritance), which emanate from medieval times, are used as “instrumental variables.” The results are robust: The hypothesis on individualism is confirmed.
A growing number of studies focus on the two-way channels connecting public opinion and interest groups, highlighting how public support affects interest groups’ mobilization, strategies, and influence, while also showing how interest groups manage to shape public opinion. We contribute to this debate, assuming that interest groups are fundamentally survival-maximizing organizations. First, we investigate whether public opinion bears on advocacy groups’ assessment of their own survival prospects. Second, we assess whether public opinion-driven mortality anxiety affects advocacy groups’ choices regarding different lobbying strategies. Empirically, we rely on data from the Comparative Interest Group Survey, including over 2500 interest group respondents across six European Union (EU) countries as well as groups working at the EU level. Our analysis shows that (1) public opinion crucially influences how advocacy groups estimate their chances of survival, particularly for citizen groups and (2) public opinion-related survival concerns stimulate greater relative use of outside lobbying by citizen groups.
Studies of citizens’ satisfaction with democracy have established a connection between satisfaction and how well those citizens’ preferred parties perform in elections. Yet, the question remains whether ‘winners’ and ‘losers’ respond to the same system- and party-level factors when evaluating their political satisfaction. We build on extant literature to consider citizen satisfaction with democracy from the perspective of character valence. Using the Mannheim Eurobarometer trend file and content analysis-based data on parties’ character valence, we find that both winners’ and losers’ satisfaction with the political system is affected by parties’ character valence, but in differing (and somewhat surprising) ways. We find that winners respond to improvements in the character valence of opposition parties, whereas losers demonstrate greater concern with the valence of governing parties.
Amidst the European sovereign debt crisis and soaring unemployment levels across the European Union, ambitions for European unemployment policies are high on the political agenda. However, it remains unclear what European taxpayers think about these plans and who is most supportive of European unemployment policies. To contribute to this debate, we conducted a survey experiment concerning solidarity towards European and domestic unemployed individuals in the Netherlands and Spain. Our results suggest that (1) Europeans are less inclined to show solidarity towards unemployed Europeans than towards unemployed co-nationals, (2) individuals with higher education, European attachment, and pro-immigration attitudes show more solidarity towards unemployed people from other European countries, but (3) even they discriminate against foreigners, and (4) finally, economic left-right orientations do not structure solidarity with unemployed people from abroad.
Despite the sweeping societal and economic transformation brought about by digitization, it has remained a relatively marginal topic in elections, with parties having few incentives to signal commitment to digitization. Why then would parties start to do so? We address this question by examining party manifestos from German subnational elections in the period between 2010 and 2018. Our analysis contributes to the research on issue competition by looking at why parties engage with the topic of the digitization even though it has neither become politicized nor salient, at present. We find, first, that parties emphasize digitization more in regions belonging to the mid-tier in terms of their degree of digital modernization. Second, parties with more resources and greater ideological compatibility signal more commitment to digitization. Finally, electoral success of the Pirate Party as a credible challenger has been followed by greater emphasis on digitization, especially among the ideologically closest competitors.
Governments are often punished for negative events such as economic downturns and financial shocks. However, governments can address such shocks with salient policy responses that might mitigate public punishment. We use three high-quality nationally representative surveys collected around a key event in the history of the Dutch economy, namely the outbreak of the financial crisis in 2008, to examine how voters responded to a salient government bailout. The results illustrate that governments can get substantial credit for pursuing a bailout in the midst of a financial crisis. Future research should take salient policy responses into account to fully understand the public response to the outbreak of financial and economic crises.
Following the protest movements and radicalism of the late sixties, many affluent countries experienced lethal revolutionary terrorism. Groups like the Red Brigades in Italy and the Red Army Faction in Germany provoked political crises in their countries. Other affluent countries, however, did not experience this same kind of violence. This book offers a historical-comparative explanation of this cross-national variation, focusing on the development paths followed by countries during the interwar period. The countries that followed a non-liberal path (marked by anarchist terrorism, democratic breakdowns, civil wars, land inequality, non-liberal capitalism, and late industrialization) suffered lethal left-wing terrorism decades later. Terrorism is thus explained as a feature of the political and economic system. Drawing on several fields, including comparative politics, political economy, international relations, and historical sociology, this book offers novel hypotheses about the determinants of violent conflict.
This chapter analyzes the impact of the ECtHR ruling in Hirsi. This decision on a ‘pushback’ operation by the Italian authorities in 2009 received a lot of attention and remains hitherto the only notable pronouncement on the growing tendency of states to externalise migration control. The tentative analysis of the various dimensions of effectiveness begins by contextualising Hirsi within a larger body of rulings of the ECtHR concerning extraterritorial human rights obligations, on which this judgment is firmly based. However, the argument will be made that the decision is not as significant as usually portrayed, particularly because Italian policy had already changed before the judgement. What is more, the applicants represented only a fraction of the actual passenger of the migrant boat, with the question of compensation also raising doubts regarding the import of the case. The strategic impact is high insofar as the symbolic value of the judgment is concerned but lower in practical terms.