In this paper we adopt the perturbation approach of Landriault, Renaud and Zhou (2011) to find expressions for the joint Laplace transforms of occupation times for time-homogeneous diffusion processes. The expressions are in terms of solutions to the associated differential equations. These Laplace transforms are applied to study ruin-related problems for several classes of diffusion risk processes.

A continuously monitored system is considered, which is subject to accumulating deterioration modelled as a gamma process. The system fails when its degradation level exceeds a limit threshold. At failure, a delayed replacement is performed. To shorten the down period, a condition-based maintenance strategy is applied, with imperfect repair. Mimicking virtual age models used for recurrent events, imperfect repair actions are assumed to lower the system degradation through a first-order arithmetic reduction of age model. Under these assumptions, Markov renewal equations are obtained for several reliability indicators. Numerical examples illustrate the behaviour of the system.

Many regenerative arguments in stochastic processes use random times which are akin to stopping times, but which are determined by the future as well as the past behaviour of the process of interest. Such arguments based on ‘conditioning on the future’ are usually developed in an ad-hoc way in the context of the application under consideration, thereby obscuring the underlying structure. In this paper we give a simple, unified, and more general treatment of such conditioning theory. We further give a number of novel applications to various particle system models, in particular to various flavours of contact processes and to infinite-bin models. We give a number of new results for existing and new models. We further make connections with the theory of Harris ergodicity.

We consider a piecewise-multilinear interpolation of a continuous random field on a d-dimensional cube. The approximation performance is measured using the integrated mean square error. Piecewise-multilinear interpolator is defined by N-field observations on a locations grid (or design). We investigate the class of locally stationary random fields whose local behavior is like a fractional Brownian field, in the mean square sense, and find the asymptotic approximation accuracy for a sequence of designs for large N. Moreover, for certain classes of continuous and continuously differentiable fields, we provide the upper bound for the approximation accuracy in the uniform mean square norm.

Consider a random walk Sn = ∑i=0nXi with negative drift. This paper deals with upper bounds for the maximum M = maxn≥1Sn of this random walk in different settings of power moment existences. As is usual for deriving upper bounds, we truncate summands. Therefore, we use an approach of splitting the time axis by stopping times into intervals of random but finite length and then choose a level of truncation on each interval. Hereby, we can reduce the problem of finding upper bounds for M to the problem of finding upper bounds for Mτ = maxn≤τSn. In addition we test our inequalities in the heavy traffic regime in the case of regularly varying tails.

The critical paths of a max-plus linear system with noise are random variables. In this paper we introduce the edge criticalities which measure how often the critical paths traverse each edge in the precedence graph. We also present the parallel path approximation, a novel method for approximating these new statistics as well as the previously studied max-plus exponent. We show that, for low amplitude noise, the critical paths spend most of their time traversing the deterministic maximally weighted cycle and that, as the noise amplitude is increased, the critical paths become more random and their distribution over the edges in the precedence graph approaches a highly uniform measure of maximal entropy.

The goal of this paper is to prove a result conjectured in Föllmer and Schachermayer (2007) in a slightly more general form. Suppose that S is a continuous semimartingale and satisfies a large deviations estimate; this is a particular growth condition on the mean-variance tradeoff process of S. We show that S then allows asymptotic exponential arbitrage with exponentially decaying failure probability, which is a strong and quantitative form of long-term arbitrage. In contrast to Föllmer and Schachermayer (2007), our result does not assume that S is a diffusion, nor does it need any ergodicity assumption.

Random sets with long-range dependence can be generated using a Boolean model with power-law grain sizes. We study thinnings of such Boolean models which have the hard-core property that no grains overlap in the resulting germ‒grain model. A fundamental question is whether long-range dependence is preserved under such thinnings. To answer this question, we study four natural thinnings of a Poisson germ‒grain model where the grains are spheres with a regularly varying size distribution. We show that a thinning which favors large grains preserves the slow correlation decay of the original model, whereas a thinning which favors small grains does not. Our most interesting finding concerns the case where only disjoint grains are retained, which corresponds to the well-known Matérn type-I thinning. In the resulting germ‒grain model, typical grains have exponentially small sizes, but rather surprisingly, the long-range dependence property is still present. As a byproduct, we obtain new mechanisms for generating homogeneous and isotropic random point configurations having a power-law correlation decay.

We discuss tail behaviors, subexponentiality, and the extreme value distribution of logarithmic skew-normal random variables. With optimal normalized constants, the asymptotic expansion of the distribution of the normalized maximum of logarithmic skew-normal random variables is derived. We show that the convergence rate of the distribution of the normalized maximum to the Gumbel extreme value distribution is proportional to 1/(log n)1/2.

In this paper we introduce a simple risk model with delayed claims, an extension of the classical Poisson model. The claims are assumed to arrive according to a Poisson process and claims follow a light-tailed distribution, and each loss payment of the claims will be settled with a random period of delay. We obtain asymptotic expressions for the ruin probability by exploiting a connection to Poisson models that are not time homogeneous. A finer asymptotic formula is obtained for the special case of exponentially delayed claims and an exact formula is obtained when the claims are also exponentially distributed.

We derive factorization identities for a class of preemptive-resume queueing systems, with batch arrivals and catastrophes that, whenever they occur, eliminate multiple customers present in the system. These processes are quite general, as they can be used to approximate Lévy processes, diffusion processes, and certain types of growth‒collapse processes; thus, all of the processes mentioned above also satisfy similar factorization identities. In the Lévy case, our identities simplify to both the well-known Wiener‒Hopf factorization, and another interesting factorization of reflected Lévy processes starting at an arbitrary initial state. We also show how the ideas can be used to derive transforms for some well-known state-dependent/inhomogeneous birth‒death processes and diffusion processes.

The Hawkes process is a self-exciting point process with clustering effect whose intensity depends on its entire past history. It has wide applications in neuroscience, finance, and many other fields. In this paper we obtain a functional central limit theorem for the nonlinear Hawkes process. Under the same assumptions, we also obtain a Strassen's invariance principle, i.e. a functional law of the iterated logarithm.

We consider a semimartingale X which is reflected at an upper barrier T and a lower barrier S, where S and T are also semimartingales such that T is bounded away from S. First, we present an explicit construction of the reflected process. Then we derive a relationship in terms of stochastic integrals linking the reflected process and the local times at the respective barriers to X, S, and T. This result reveals the fundamental structural properties of the reflection mechanism. We also present a few results showing how the general relationship simplifies under additional assumptions on X, S, and T, e.g. if we take X, S, and T to be independent martingales (which satisfy some extra technical conditions).

In this paper we present novel results for discrete-time and Markovian continuous-time multitype branching processes. As a population develops, we are interested in the waiting time until a particular type of interest (such as an escape mutant) appears, and in how the distribution of individuals depends on whether this type has yet appeared. Specifically, both forward and backward equations for the distribution of type-specific population sizes over time, conditioned on the nonappearance of one or more particular types, are derived. In tandem, equations for the probability that one or more particular types have not yet appeared are also derived. Brief examples illustrate numerical methods and potential applications of these results in evolutionary biology and epidemiology.

In a discrete-time single-type Galton--Watson branching random walk {Zn, ζn}n≤ 0, where Zn is the population of the nth generation and ζn is a collection of the positions on ℝ of the Zn individuals in the nth generation, let Yn be the position of a randomly chosen individual from the nth generation and Zn(x) be the number of points in ζn that are less than or equal to x for x∈ℝ. In this paper we show in the explosive case (i.e. m=E(Z1∣ Z0=1)=∞) when the offspring distribution is in the domain of attraction of a stable law of order α,0 <α<1, that the sequence of random functions {Zn(x)/Zn:−∞<x<∞} converges in the finite-dimensional sense to {δx:−∞<x<∞}, where δx≡ 1{N≤ x} and N is an N(0,1) random variable.

We consider a continuous-time, single-type, age-dependent Bellman-Harris branching process. We investigate the limit distribution of the point process A(t)={at,i: 1≤ i≤ Z(t)}, where at,i is the age of the ith individual alive at time t, 1≤ i≤ Z(t), and Z(t) is the population size of individuals alive at time t. Also, if Z(t)≥ k, k≥2, is a positive integer, we pick k individuals from those who are alive at time t by simple random sampling without replacement and trace their lines of descent backward in time until they meet for the first time. Let Dk(t) be the coalescence time (the death time of the last common ancestor) of these k random chosen individuals. We study the distribution of Dk(t) and its limit distribution as t→∞.

In the paper we consider the density functions of random variables that can be written as integrals of exponential functions of Gaussian random fields. In particular, we provide closed-form asymptotic bounds for the density functions and, under smoothness conditions, we derive exact tail approximations of the density functions.

We consider a drift parameter estimation problem when the state process is a reflected fractional Brownian motion (RFBM) with a nonzero drift parameter and the observation is the associated local time process. The RFBM process arises as the key approximating process for queueing systems with long-range dependent and self-similar input processes, where the drift parameter carries the physical meaning of the surplus service rate and plays a central role in the heavy-traffic approximation theory for queueing systems. We study a statistical estimator based on the cumulative local time process and establish its strong consistency and asymptotic normality.

We consider the tree-reduced path of a symmetric random walk on ℤd. It is interesting to ask about the number of turns Tn in the reduced path after n steps. This question arises from inverting the signatures of lattice paths: Tn gives an upper bound of the number of terms in the signature needed to reconstruct a ‘random’ lattice path with n steps. We show that, when n is large, the mean and variance of Tn in the asymptotic expansion have the same order as n, while the lower-order terms are O(1). We also obtain limit theorems for Tn, including the large deviations principle, central limit theorem, and invariance principle. Similar techniques apply to other finite patterns in a lattice path.

Spot prices in energy markets exhibit special features, such as price spikes, mean reversion, stochastic volatility, inverse leverage effect, and dependencies between the commodities. In this paper a multivariate stochastic volatility model is introduced which captures these features. The second-order structure and stationarity of the model are analyzed in detail. A simulation method for Monte Carlo generation of price paths is introduced and a numerical example is presented.