We construct entropy increasing monotone factors in the context of a Bernoulli shift over the free group of rank at least two.

We study the Furstenberg-entropy realization problem for stationary actions. It is shown that for finitely supported probability measures on free groups, any a priori possible entropy value can be realized as the entropy of an ergodic stationary action. This generalizes results of Bowen. The stationary actions we construct arise via invariant random subgroups (IRSs), based on ideas of Bowen and Kaimanovich. We provide a general framework for constructing a continuum of ergodic IRSs for a discrete group under some algebraic conditions, which gives a continuum of entropy values. Our tools apply, for example, for certain extensions of the group of finitely supported permutations and lamplighter groups, hence establishing full realization results for these groups. For the free group, we construct the IRSs via a geometric construction of subgroups, by describing their Schreier graphs. The analysis of the entropy of these spaces is obtained by studying the random walk on the appropriate Schreier graphs.

Let X be the constrained random walk on ℤ+2 having increments (1,0), (-1,1), and (0,-1) with respective probabilities λ, µ1, and µ2 representing the lengths of two tandem queues. We assume that X is stable and µ1≠µ2. Let τn be the first time when the sum of the components of X equals n. Let Y be the constrained random walk on ℤ×ℤ+ having increments (-1,0), (1,1), and (0,-1) with probabilities λ, µ1, and µ2. Let τ be the first time that the components of Y are equal to each other. We prove that Pn-xn(1),xn(2)(τ<∞) approximates pn(xn) with relative error exponentially decaying in n for xn=⌊nx⌋, x ∈ℝ+2, 0<x(1)+x(2)<1, x(1)>0. An affine transformation moving the origin to the point (n,0) and letting n→∞ connect the X and Y processes. We use a linear combination of basis functions constructed from single and conjugate points on a characteristic surface associated with X to derive a simple expression for ℙy(τ<∞) in terms of the utilization rates of the nodes. The proof that the relative error decays exponentially in n uses a sequence of subsolutions of a related Hamilton‒Jacobi‒Bellman equation on a manifold consisting of three copies of ℝ+2 glued to each other along the constraining boundaries. We indicate how the ideas of the paper can be generalized to more general processes and other exit boundaries.

In this paper we consider the factor analysis for Lévy-driven multivariate price models with stochastic volatility. Our main aim is to provide conditions on the volatility process under which we can possibly reduce the dimension of the driving Lévy motion. We find that these conditions depend on a particular form of the multivariate Lévy process. In some settings we concentrate on nondegenerate symmetric α-stable Lévy motions.

Goldman (2010) proved that the distribution of a stationary determinantal point process (DPP) Φ can be coupled with its reduced Palm version Φ0,! such that there exists a point process η where Φ=Φ0,!∪η in distribution and Φ0,!∩η=∅. The points of η characterize the repulsive nature of a typical point of Φ. In this paper we use the first-moment measure of η to study the repulsive behavior of DPPs in high dimensions. We show that many families of DPPs have the property that the total number of points in η converges in probability to 0 as the space dimension n→∞. We also prove that for some DPPs, there exists an R∗ such that the decay of the first-moment measure of η is slowest in a small annulus around the sphere of radius √nR∗. This R∗ can be interpreted as the asymptotic reach of repulsion of the DPP. Examples of classes of DPP models exhibiting this behavior are presented and an application to high-dimensional Boolean models is given.

We consider a Markov chain of point processes such that each state is a superposition of an independent cluster process with the previous state as its centre process together with some independent noise process and a thinned version of the previous state. The model extends earlier work by Felsenstein (1975) and Shimatani (2010) describing a reproducing population. We discuss when closed-form expressions of the first- and second-order moments are available for a given state. In a special case it is known that the pair correlation function for these type of point processes converges as the Markov chain progresses, but it has not been shown whether the Markov chain has an equilibrium distribution with this, particular, pair correlation function and how it may be constructed. Assuming the same reproducing system, we construct an equilibrium distribution by a coupling argument.

We investigate the asymptotic properties of the transient queue length process Q(t)=max(Q(0)+X(t)-ct, sup0≤s≤t(X(t)-X(s)-c(t-s))), t≥0, in the Gaussian fluid queueing model, where the input process X is modeled by a centered Gaussian process with stationary increments and c>0 is the output rate. More specifically, under some mild conditions on X and Q(0)=x≥0, we derive the exact asymptotics of πx,Tu(u)=ℙ(Q(Tu)>u) as u→∞. The interplay between u and Tu leads to two qualitatively different regimes: short-time horizon when Tu is relatively small with respect to u, and moderate- or long-time horizon when Tu is asymptotically much larger than u. As a by-product, we discuss the implications for the speed of convergence to stationarity of the model studied.

In this paper we study the number of customers in infinite-server queues with a self-exciting (Hawkes) arrival process. Initially we assume that service requirements are exponentially distributed and that the Hawkes arrival process is of a Markovian nature. We obtain a system of differential equations that characterizes the joint distribution of the arrival intensity and the number of customers. Moreover, we provide a recursive procedure that explicitly identifies (transient and stationary) moments. Subsequently, we allow for non-Markovian Hawkes arrival processes and nonexponential service times. By viewing the Hawkes process as a branching process, we find that the probability generating function of the number of customers in the system can be expressed in terms of the solution of a fixed-point equation. We also include various asymptotic results: we derive the tail of the distribution of the number of customers for the case that the intensity jumps of the Hawkes process are heavy tailed, and we consider a heavy-traffic regime. We conclude by discussing how our results can be used computationally and by verifying the numerical results via simulations.

In this paper we study a finite-fuel two-dimensional degenerate singular stochastic control problem under regime switching motivated by the optimal irreversible extraction problem of an exhaustible commodity. A company extracts a natural resource from a reserve with finite capacity and sells it in the market at a spot price that evolves according to a Brownian motion with volatility modulated by a two-state Markov chain. In this setting, the company aims at finding the extraction rule that maximizes its expected discounted cash flow, net of the costs of extraction and maintenance of the reserve. We provide expressions for both the value function and the optimal control. On the one hand, if the running cost for the maintenance of the reserve is a convex function of the reserve level, the optimal extraction rule prescribes a Skorokhod reflection of the (optimally) controlled state process at a certain state and price-dependent threshold. On the other hand, in the presence of a concave running cost function, it is optimal to instantaneously deplete the reserve at the time at which the commodity's price exceeds an endogenously determined critical level. In both cases, the threshold triggering the optimal control is given in terms of the optimal stopping boundary of an auxiliary family of perpetual optimal selling problems with regime switching.

Motivated by a common mathematical finance topic, we discuss the reciprocal of the exit time from a cone of planar Brownian motion which also corresponds to the exponential functional of Brownian motion in the framework of planar Brownian motion. We prove a conjecture of Vakeroudis and Yor (2012) concerning infinite divisibility properties of this random variable and present a novel simple proof of the result of DeBlassie (1987), (1988) concerning the asymptotic behavior of the distribution of the Bessel clock appearing in the skew-product representation of planar Brownian motion, as t→∞. We use the results of the windings approach in order to obtain results for quantities associated to the pricing of Asian options.

We consider positive zero-sum stochastic games with countable state and action spaces. For each player, we provide a characterization of those strategies that are optimal in every subgame. These characterizations are used to prove two simplification results. We show that if player 2 has an optimal strategy then he/she also has a stationary optimal strategy, and prove the same for player 1 under the assumption that the state space and player 2's action space are finite.

It is known that the space of boundedly finite integer-valued measures on a complete separable metric space becomes a complete separable metric space when endowed with the weak-hash metric. It is also known that convergence under this topology can be characterised in a way that is similar to the weak convergence of totally finite measures. However, the original proofs of these two fundamental results assume that a certain term is monotonic, which is not the case as we show by a counterexample. We clarify these original proofs by addressing the parts that rely on this assumption and finding alternative arguments.

An infinite convergent sum of independent and identically distributed random variables discounted by a multiplicative random walk is called perpetuity, because of a possible actuarial application. We provide three disjoint groups of sufficient conditions which ensure that the right tail of a perpetuity ℙ{X > x} is asymptotic to axce-bx as x → ∞ for some a, b > 0, and c ∈ ℝ. Our results complement those of Denisov and Zwart (2007). As an auxiliary tool we provide criteria for the finiteness of the one-sided exponential moments of perpetuities. We give several examples in which the distributions of perpetuities are explicitly identified.

In this paper we establish a new connection between a class of two-player nonzero-sum games of optimal stopping and certain two-player nonzero-sum games of singular control. We show that whenever a Nash equilibrium in the game of stopping is attained by hitting times at two separate boundaries, then such boundaries also trigger a Nash equilibrium in the game of singular control. Moreover, a differential link between the players' value functions holds across the two games.

In the paper we study the Zakai and Kushner–Stratonovich equations of the nonlinear filtering problem for a non-Gaussian signal-observation system. Moreover, we prove that under some general assumption, the Zakai equation has pathwise uniqueness and uniqueness in joint law, and the Kushner–Stratonovich equation is unique in joint law.

We simultaneously estimate the four parameters of a subcritical Heston process. We do not restrict ourselves to the case where the stochastic volatility process never reaches zero. In order to avoid the use of unmanageable stopping times and a natural but intractable estimator, we use a weighted least-squares estimator. We establish strong consistency and asymptotic normality for this estimator. Numerical simulations are also provided, illustrating the favorable performance of our estimation procedure.

For spectrally negative Lévy risk processes we consider a general version of de Finetti's optimal dividend problem in which the ruin time is replaced with a general drawdown time from the running maximum in its value function. We identify a condition under which a barrier dividend strategy is optimal among all admissible strategies if the underlying process does not belong to a small class of compound Poisson processes with drift, for which the take-the-money-and-run dividend strategy is optimal. It generalizes the previous results on dividend optimization from ruin time based to drawdown time based. The associated drawdown functions are discussed in detail for examples of spectrally negative Lévy processes.

Let X be a jump-diffusion process and X* its running supremum. In this paper we first show that for any t > 0, the law of the pair (X*t, Xt) has a density with respect to the Lebesgue measure. This allows us to show that for any t > 0, the law of the pair formed by the random variable Xt and the running supremum X*t of X at time t can be characterized as a weak solution of a partial differential equation concerning the distribution of the pair (X*t, Xt). Then we obtain an expression of the marginal density of X*t for all t > 0.

In this paper we discuss the Mabinogion urn model introduced by Williams (1991). Therein he describes an optimal control problem where the objective is to maximize the expected final number of objects of one kind in the Mabinogion urn model. Our main contribution is formulae for the expected time to absorption and its asymptotic behaviour in the optimally controlled process. We also present results for the noncontrolled Mabinogion urn process and briefly analyze other strategies that become superior if a certain discount factor is included.