Let Sn,n≥1, be the successive sums of the payoffs in the classical St. Petersburg game. The celebrated Feller weak law states that Sn∕(nlog2n)→ℙ1 as n→∞. In this paper we review some earlier results of ours and extend some of them as we consider an asymmetric St. Petersburg game, in which the distribution of the payoff X is given by ℙ(X=srk-1)=pqk-1,k=1,2,…, where p+q=1 and s,r>0. Two main results are extensions of the Feller weak law and the convergence in distribution theorem of Martin-Löf (1985). Moreover, it is well known that almost-sure convergence fails, though Csörgő and Simons (1996) showed that almost-sure convergence holds for trimmed sums and also for sums trimmed by an arbitrary fixed number of maxima. In view of the discreteness of the distribution we focus on `max-trimmed sums', that is, on the sums trimmed by the random number of observations that are equal to the largest one, and prove limit theorems for simply trimmed sums, for max-trimmed sums, as well as for the `total maximum'. Analogues with respect to the random number of summands equal to the minimum are also obtained and, finally, for joint trimming.

Introduced recently in mathematical finance by Bayer et al. (2016), the rough Bergomi model has proved particularly efficient to calibrate option markets. We investigate some of its probabilistic properties, in particular proving a pathwise large deviations principle for a small-noise version of the model. The exponential function (continuous but superlinear) as well as the drift appearing in the volatility process fall beyond the scope of existing results, and a dedicated analysis is needed.

De Finetti’s optimal dividend problem has recently been extended to the case when dividend payments can be made only at Poisson arrival times. In this paper we consider the version with bail-outs where the surplus must be nonnegative uniformly in time. For a general spectrally negative Lévy model, we show the optimality of a Parisian-classical reflection strategy that pays the excess above a given barrier at each Poisson arrival time and also reflects from below at 0 in the classical sense.

We study the asymptotic behaviour of the expected exit time from an interval for the ARMA process, when the noise level approaches 0.

We define nearest-neighbour point processes on graphs with Euclidean edges and linear networks. They can be seen as analogues of renewal processes on the real line. We show that the Delaunay neighbourhood relation on a tree satisfies the Baddeley‒Møller consistency conditions and provide a characterisation of Markov functions with respect to this relation. We show that a modified relation defined in terms of the local geometry of the graph satisfies the consistency conditions for all graphs with Euclidean edges that do not contain triangles.

In this paper we consider a new type of urn scheme, where the selection probabilities are proportional to a weight function, which is linear but decreasing in the proportion of existing colours. We refer to it as the de-preferential urn scheme. We establish the almost-sure limit of the random configuration for any balanced replacement matrix R. In particular, we show that the limiting configuration is uniform on the set of colours if and only if R is a doubly stochastic matrix. We further establish the almost-sure limit of the vector of colour counts and prove central limit theorems for the random configuration as well as for the colour counts.

We introduce and study the class of branching-stable point measures, which can be seen as an analog of stable random variables when the branching mechanism for point measures replaces the usual addition. In contrast with the classical theory of stable (Lévy) processes, there exists a rich family of branching-stable point measures with a negative scaling exponent, which can be described as certain Crump‒Mode‒Jagers branching processes. We investigate the asymptotic behavior of their cumulative distribution functions, that is, the number of atoms in (-∞, x] as x→∞, and further depict the genealogical lineage of typical atoms. For both results, we rely crucially on the work of Biggins (1977), (1992).

Brown‒Resnick processes are max-stable processes that are associated to Gaussian processes. Their simulation is often based on the corresponding spectral representation which is not unique. We study to what extent simulation accuracy and efficiency can be improved by minimizing the maximal variance of the underlying Gaussian process. Such a minimization is a difficult mathematical problem that also depends on the geometry of the simulation domain. We extend Matheron's (1974) seminal contribution in two directions: (i) making his description of a minimal maximal variance explicit for convex variograms on symmetric domains, and (ii) proving that the same strategy also reduces the maximal variance for a huge class of nonconvex variograms representable through a Bernstein function. A simulation study confirms that our noncostly modification can lead to substantial improvements among Gaussian representations. We also compare it with three other established algorithms.

In this paper we study the Assouad dimension of graphs of certain Lévy processes and functions defined by stochastic integrals. We do this by introducing a convenient condition which guarantees a graph to have full Assouad dimension and then show that graphs of our studied processes satisfy this condition.

Vibration energy harvesting aims to harness the energy of ambient random vibrations for power generation, particularly in small-scale devices. Typically, stochastic excitation driving the harvester is modelled as a Brownian process and the dynamics are studied in the equilibrium state. However, non-Brownian excitations are of interest, particularly in the nonequilibrium regime of the dynamics. In this work we study the nonequilibrium dynamics of a generic piezoelectric harvester driven by Brownian as well as (non-Brownian) Lévy flight excitation, both in the linear and the Duffing regimes. Both the monostable and the bistable cases of the Duffing regime are studied. The first set of results demonstrate that Lévy flight excitation results in higher expectation values of harvested power. In particular, it is shown that increasing the noise intensity leads to a significant increase in power output. It is also shown that a linearly coupled array of nonlinear harvesters yields improved power output for tailored values of coupling coefficients. The second set of results show that Lévy flight excitation fundamentally alters the bifurcation characteristics of the dynamics. Together, the results underscore the importance of non-Brownian excitation characterised by Lévy flight in vibration energy harvesting, both from a theoretical viewpoint and from the perspective of practical applications.

Given a one-dimensional downwards transient diffusion process $X$, we consider a random time $\unicode[STIX]{x1D70C}$, the last exit time when $X$ exits a certain level $\ell$, and detect the optimal stopping time for it. In particular, for this random time $\unicode[STIX]{x1D70C}$, we solve the optimisation problem $\inf _{\unicode[STIX]{x1D70F}}\mathbb{E}[\unicode[STIX]{x1D706}(\unicode[STIX]{x1D70F}-\unicode[STIX]{x1D70C})_{+}+(1-\unicode[STIX]{x1D706})(\unicode[STIX]{x1D70C}-\unicode[STIX]{x1D70F})_{+}]$ over all stopping times $\unicode[STIX]{x1D70F}$. We show that the process should stop optimally when it runs below some fixed level $\unicode[STIX]{x1D705}_{\ell }$ for the first time, where $\unicode[STIX]{x1D705}_{\ell }$ is the unique solution in the interval $(0,\unicode[STIX]{x1D706}\ell )$ of an explicitly defined equation.

We construct entropy increasing monotone factors in the context of a Bernoulli shift over the free group of rank at least two.

We study the Furstenberg-entropy realization problem for stationary actions. It is shown that for finitely supported probability measures on free groups, any a priori possible entropy value can be realized as the entropy of an ergodic stationary action. This generalizes results of Bowen. The stationary actions we construct arise via invariant random subgroups (IRSs), based on ideas of Bowen and Kaimanovich. We provide a general framework for constructing a continuum of ergodic IRSs for a discrete group under some algebraic conditions, which gives a continuum of entropy values. Our tools apply, for example, for certain extensions of the group of finitely supported permutations and lamplighter groups, hence establishing full realization results for these groups. For the free group, we construct the IRSs via a geometric construction of subgroups, by describing their Schreier graphs. The analysis of the entropy of these spaces is obtained by studying the random walk on the appropriate Schreier graphs.

Let X be the constrained random walk on ℤ+2 having increments (1,0), (-1,1), and (0,-1) with respective probabilities λ, µ1, and µ2 representing the lengths of two tandem queues. We assume that X is stable and µ1≠µ2. Let τn be the first time when the sum of the components of X equals n. Let Y be the constrained random walk on ℤ×ℤ+ having increments (-1,0), (1,1), and (0,-1) with probabilities λ, µ1, and µ2. Let τ be the first time that the components of Y are equal to each other. We prove that Pn-xn(1),xn(2)(τ<∞) approximates pn(xn) with relative error exponentially decaying in n for xn=⌊nx⌋, x ∈ℝ+2, 0<x(1)+x(2)<1, x(1)>0. An affine transformation moving the origin to the point (n,0) and letting n→∞ connect the X and Y processes. We use a linear combination of basis functions constructed from single and conjugate points on a characteristic surface associated with X to derive a simple expression for ℙy(τ<∞) in terms of the utilization rates of the nodes. The proof that the relative error decays exponentially in n uses a sequence of subsolutions of a related Hamilton‒Jacobi‒Bellman equation on a manifold consisting of three copies of ℝ+2 glued to each other along the constraining boundaries. We indicate how the ideas of the paper can be generalized to more general processes and other exit boundaries.

In this paper we consider the factor analysis for Lévy-driven multivariate price models with stochastic volatility. Our main aim is to provide conditions on the volatility process under which we can possibly reduce the dimension of the driving Lévy motion. We find that these conditions depend on a particular form of the multivariate Lévy process. In some settings we concentrate on nondegenerate symmetric α-stable Lévy motions.

Goldman (2010) proved that the distribution of a stationary determinantal point process (DPP) Φ can be coupled with its reduced Palm version Φ0,! such that there exists a point process η where Φ=Φ0,!∪η in distribution and Φ0,!∩η=∅. The points of η characterize the repulsive nature of a typical point of Φ. In this paper we use the first-moment measure of η to study the repulsive behavior of DPPs in high dimensions. We show that many families of DPPs have the property that the total number of points in η converges in probability to 0 as the space dimension n→∞. We also prove that for some DPPs, there exists an R∗ such that the decay of the first-moment measure of η is slowest in a small annulus around the sphere of radius √nR∗. This R∗ can be interpreted as the asymptotic reach of repulsion of the DPP. Examples of classes of DPP models exhibiting this behavior are presented and an application to high-dimensional Boolean models is given.

We consider a Markov chain of point processes such that each state is a superposition of an independent cluster process with the previous state as its centre process together with some independent noise process and a thinned version of the previous state. The model extends earlier work by Felsenstein (1975) and Shimatani (2010) describing a reproducing population. We discuss when closed-form expressions of the first- and second-order moments are available for a given state. In a special case it is known that the pair correlation function for these type of point processes converges as the Markov chain progresses, but it has not been shown whether the Markov chain has an equilibrium distribution with this, particular, pair correlation function and how it may be constructed. Assuming the same reproducing system, we construct an equilibrium distribution by a coupling argument.

We investigate the asymptotic properties of the transient queue length process Q(t)=max(Q(0)+X(t)-ct, sup0≤s≤t(X(t)-X(s)-c(t-s))), t≥0, in the Gaussian fluid queueing model, where the input process X is modeled by a centered Gaussian process with stationary increments and c>0 is the output rate. More specifically, under some mild conditions on X and Q(0)=x≥0, we derive the exact asymptotics of πx,Tu(u)=ℙ(Q(Tu)>u) as u→∞. The interplay between u and Tu leads to two qualitatively different regimes: short-time horizon when Tu is relatively small with respect to u, and moderate- or long-time horizon when Tu is asymptotically much larger than u. As a by-product, we discuss the implications for the speed of convergence to stationarity of the model studied.

In this paper we study the number of customers in infinite-server queues with a self-exciting (Hawkes) arrival process. Initially we assume that service requirements are exponentially distributed and that the Hawkes arrival process is of a Markovian nature. We obtain a system of differential equations that characterizes the joint distribution of the arrival intensity and the number of customers. Moreover, we provide a recursive procedure that explicitly identifies (transient and stationary) moments. Subsequently, we allow for non-Markovian Hawkes arrival processes and nonexponential service times. By viewing the Hawkes process as a branching process, we find that the probability generating function of the number of customers in the system can be expressed in terms of the solution of a fixed-point equation. We also include various asymptotic results: we derive the tail of the distribution of the number of customers for the case that the intensity jumps of the Hawkes process are heavy tailed, and we consider a heavy-traffic regime. We conclude by discussing how our results can be used computationally and by verifying the numerical results via simulations.

In this paper we study a finite-fuel two-dimensional degenerate singular stochastic control problem under regime switching motivated by the optimal irreversible extraction problem of an exhaustible commodity. A company extracts a natural resource from a reserve with finite capacity and sells it in the market at a spot price that evolves according to a Brownian motion with volatility modulated by a two-state Markov chain. In this setting, the company aims at finding the extraction rule that maximizes its expected discounted cash flow, net of the costs of extraction and maintenance of the reserve. We provide expressions for both the value function and the optimal control. On the one hand, if the running cost for the maintenance of the reserve is a convex function of the reserve level, the optimal extraction rule prescribes a Skorokhod reflection of the (optimally) controlled state process at a certain state and price-dependent threshold. On the other hand, in the presence of a concave running cost function, it is optimal to instantaneously deplete the reserve at the time at which the commodity's price exceeds an endogenously determined critical level. In both cases, the threshold triggering the optimal control is given in terms of the optimal stopping boundary of an auxiliary family of perpetual optimal selling problems with regime switching.