People frequently underestimate the time needed to complete tasks and we examined a strategy – known as backward planning – that may counteract this optimistic bias. Backward planning involves starting a plan at the end goal and then working through required steps in reverse-chronological order, and is commonly advocated by practitioners as a tool for developing realistic plans and projections. We conducted four experiments to test effects on completion time predictions and related cognitive processes. Participants planned for a task in one of three directions (backward, forward, or unspecified) and predicted when it would be finished. As hypothesized, predicted completion times were longer (Studies 1–4) and thus less biased (Study 4) in the backward condition than in the forward and unspecified conditions. Process measures suggested that backward planning may increase attention to situational factors that delay progress (e.g., obstacles, interruptions, competing demands), elicit novel planning insights, and alter the conceptualization of time.

The pension system brings challenges in many high-income countries. While the system was set up at the time of economic growth, policymakers are facing both economic slowdown and aging population. Moreover, there is an incentive mis-match between short to medium term popularity and re-election versus taking necessary decisions to affect long-term sustainability of the system. In a small open economy, the situation is further accentuated by high volatility driven by migrations and cross-borders workers. This paper aims to address the policymakers’ challenges and develops an innovative model, whose main contribution is the way it reflects the cross-border workers’ contribution and impact. Therefore, it allows to not only assess the state liabilities, but also the evolution of the age pyramid with a significant portion of new migrants and cross-border workers, considering the high volatility of workers. It also provides an approach to analyze issues at stake and remove decision biases faced by politicians through policy options and their impact under various economic scenarios. With the model in hand, we analyze three different scenarios for the future evolution of Luxembourg's pension system. In all three scenarios, the results reflect a significant imbalance of the pension system over time (to 2060), going from 1.6% of gross domestic product (GDP) surplus in the best scenario to 14.2% of GDP deficit in the worst scenario. The probability of this worst scenario is related with a worsening of the economic situation, with job destruction and a drop in economic growth impacting cross-border commuters and net migrations.