Skip to main content Accessibility help
×
Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-jn8rn Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-23T00:14:21.988Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

9 - Predictability

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  14 November 2024

Philip Hans Franses
Affiliation:
Erasmus University
Get access

Summary

This chapter opens with some quotes and insights on megaprojects. We turn to the construction and the use of prediction intervals in a time series context. We see that depending on the choice of the number of unit roots (stochastic trends) or the sample size (when does the sample start?), we can compute a wide range of prediction intervals. Next, we see that those trends, and breaks in levels and breaks in trend, can yield a wide variety of forecasts. Again, we reiterate that maintaining a variety of models and outcomes is useful, and that an equal-weighted combination of results can be most appropriate. Indeed, any specific choice leads to a different outcome. Finally, we discuss for a simple first-order autoregression how you can see what the limits to predictability are. We see that these limits are closer than we may think at the onset.

Type
Chapter
Information
Ethics in Econometrics
A Guide to Research Practice
, pp. 211 - 231
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2024

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Save book to Kindle

To save this book to your Kindle, first ensure [email protected] is added to your Approved Personal Document E-mail List under your Personal Document Settings on the Manage Your Content and Devices page of your Amazon account. Then enter the ‘name’ part of your Kindle email address below. Find out more about saving to your Kindle.

Note you can select to save to either the @free.kindle.com or @kindle.com variations. ‘@free.kindle.com’ emails are free but can only be saved to your device when it is connected to wi-fi. ‘@kindle.com’ emails can be delivered even when you are not connected to wi-fi, but note that service fees apply.

Find out more about the Kindle Personal Document Service.

  • Predictability
  • Philip Hans Franses, Erasmus University
  • Book: Ethics in Econometrics
  • Online publication: 14 November 2024
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009428033.011
Available formats
×

Save book to Dropbox

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Dropbox.

  • Predictability
  • Philip Hans Franses, Erasmus University
  • Book: Ethics in Econometrics
  • Online publication: 14 November 2024
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009428033.011
Available formats
×

Save book to Google Drive

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Google Drive.

  • Predictability
  • Philip Hans Franses, Erasmus University
  • Book: Ethics in Econometrics
  • Online publication: 14 November 2024
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009428033.011
Available formats
×