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The chapter gives an overview of dispute settlement during the Old Regime. Contrary to older assessments of the historiography, dispute settlement retained its importance in this era, both in qualitative and in quantitative terms. This was true for the field of theoretical literatures, which, from the last decades of the seventeenth century, dealt intensively with the subject. Normally, a clear distinction was made between an elected arbiter, who definitively decided a dispute, and a mediator, who only made peace proposals. Diplomatic practice, which made intensive use of the instruments of dispute settlement until the last decades of the eighteenth century, was much more flexible. The transitions between arbitration and mediation were fluid; the boundaries of confession and rank were also frequently crossed. In Old Regime Europe, mediation was also used for the first time in peace negotiations between Christian and Islamic powers. New forms of mediation emerged as well. One was the armed mediation, in which a power intervened in a conflict uninvited and set a peace ultimatum; this could easily lead to war. This indicates that dispute settlement did not automatically contribute to an increase in peace; the relationship of dispute settlement to war and peace remained rather ambivalent in Old Regime Europe.
In the early modern age, the settlement of disputes between the actors of ‘international’ relations hinged on communication channels and negotiation networks that were meant to limit the recourse to violence. Multireligious Renaissance Europe saw the emergence of the jus gentium – as a distinct, gestating branch of law – and modern diplomacy, perceived as a social and cultural practice used not only by sovereigns, but also by non-sovereign actors – a practice allowing both Europeans and non-Europeans to engage in formal and informal interactions, in state and non-state settings, through the elaboration of common languages, of (verbal and symbolic) communication practices and of shared political and legal cultures. In a belligerent era, which spawned many wars, European diplomacy developed new forms of negotiation that attest to an elaborate ‘art of peace’. By the end of the period, the Thirty Years War ended with the first experience of dispute settlement through multilateral talks involving nearly all European powers in Westphalia (1643-9) and reflecting conflicts that attest to the successive integration of non-European territories in ongoing European dispute. The congress demonstrated both the effectiveness and the limitations of this innovative negotiation model.
Pubertal development variations have consequences for adolescent internalizing problems, which likely continue into adulthood. Key questions concern the extent of these links between pubertal timing and adult symptoms, as well as the underlying mechanisms.
Methods
Longitudinal data were available for 475 female and 404 male participants. Pubertal timing was indicated by age at mid-puberty for both groups and age at menarche for female participants (both assessed continuously). Adult self-reported outcomes of recent and lifetime depression and anxiety were predicted from pubertal timing, also controlling for adolescent (then childhood) internalizing problems. Emerging adulthood self-esteem, body dissatisfaction, education level, and age at sexual initiation were examined as mediators of the pubertal timing-adult internalizing link. Multilevel models tested hypotheses.
Results
Pubertal timing had persisting and sex-dependent psychological associations. Specifically, in female, but not male, adults, early puberty was associated with all adult internalizing outcomes, and for past year and lifetime depression symptoms, even after controlling for adolescent internalizing problems. Pubertal timing links with past-year depression symptoms were mediated by age at sexual initiation, while all other persisting pubertal timing links with adult symptoms were mediated by body dissatisfaction. Most findings concerning depression held when childhood internalizing problems were also a covariate.
Conclusions
Leveraging data spanning four developmental periods, findings highlight the associations between pubertal variations and adult internalizing symptoms by revealing underlying sex-dependent behavioral pathways. Only for female participants did pubertal timing affect depression and anxiety in established adulthood, with body dissatisfaction and age at sexual initiation as unique developmental mechanisms.
The journey of mediation as a non-authoritative process into the court system has come full circle with one utterly different model emerging in contemporary times. As mentioned in the previous chapters, mediation has inspired hybrid judicial roles and settlement promotion and introduced consent as the foundation for many hybrid legal processes. Yet this hybridization has worked both ways, affecting mediation as well. Authority-based mediation is emerging as an advanced judicial process that generates public norms. This new sophisticated model for dealing with polycentric legal problems while preserving soft qualities of the process and keeping a narrow focus on a legal outcome is, in fact, a novel form of private adjudication. We describe this emergent form of mediation and its theoretical underpinnings.
Adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) have been associated with increased risks of autoimmune diseases. However, data are scarce on the role of specific ACEs as well as the potential mediating role of adverse mental health symptoms in this association.
Methods
A cohort study using the nationwide Icelandic Stress-And-Gene-Analysis (SAGA, 22,423 women) cohort and the UK Biobank (UKB, 86,492 women) was conducted. Participants self-reported on five ACEs. Twelve autoimmune diseases were self-reported in SAGA and identified via hospital records in UKB. Poisson regression was used to assess the cross-sectional association between ACEs and autoimmune diseases in both cohorts. Using longitudinal data on self-reported mental health symptoms in the UKB, we used causal mediation analyses to study potential mediation by depressive, anxiety, and PTSD symptoms in the association between ACEs and autoimmune diseases.
Results
The prevalence of ACEs was 50% in SAGA and 35% in UKB, while the prevalence of autoimmune diseases was 29% (self-reported) and 14% (clinically confirmed), respectively. In both cohorts, ACEs were associated with an increased prevalence ratio (PR) of any studied autoimmune disease in a dose–response manner (PR = 1.10 (95%CI = 1.08–1.12) per ACE), particularly for Sjögrens (PR = 1.34), polymyalgia rheumatica (PR = 1.20), rheumatoid arthritis (PR = 1.14), systemic lupus erythematosus (PR = 1.13), and thyroid disease (PR = 1.11). Sexual abuse and physical and emotional neglect were consistently associated with an elevated prevalence of autoimmune diseases when including all ACEs in the model. Approximately one fourth of the association was mediated through depression, anxiety, and PTSD.
Conclusions
These findings based on two large cohorts indicate a role of ACEs and corresponding mental health distress in autoimmune diseases among adult women.
The higher-educated were long supposed to be winners of technological change, but recent evidence indicates that they feel (and are) increasingly exposed to the risk of technological redundancy. Based on what is known about how lower- to medium-skilled workers respond to technological exposure, this new sense of vulnerability among the higher-educated could have significant political effects – specifically increased support for right-wing populist parties – but empirical evidence on this is still lacking. I address this gap and investigate the effects of technological vulnerability on the party preferences of the higher-educated using survey data from the 2022 Risks that Matter survey. I find that feeling technologically vulnerable does indeed increase support for populist right-wing parties and reduce support for left parties among the higher-educated. I also conduct mediation analyses to explore the mechanisms behind these patterns and find evidence for a significant but substantively small mediation effect of social policy preferences.
Chapter 1 introduces the argument, summarises the findings, and describes the conceptual framework applied throughout the book to analyse UN mediation as a gendered-colonial institution. It begins by noting the slow progress of the WPS Agenda in UN mediation, which the scholarly literature has not adequately addressed. It also stakes out the significance of WPS in UN mediation for the realisation of women's right to political participation, the advancement of gender equality in post-conflict contexts, and the diffusion of international approaches to gender-sensitive mediation from the UN to other organisations. The next section discusses how UN mediation can be analysed as an institution and identifies the key concepts and techniques used in parsing its gendered institutional logics. It also argues for using decolonial concepts of gender in studying the UN. Next, the chapter describes the interpretive research design and considers the ethical and practical implications of this approach. Last, the chapter concludes with an overview of each chapter.
Chapter 2 provides background on the WPS Agenda and UN mediation. It first discusses the politics of the WPS Agenda in the UN by focusing on three main dynamics: how UN actors articulate what the WPS Agenda is, how the UN's mediation architecture has adopted the Agenda, and how actors within the UN resist the Agenda, both passively and actively. It then provides an overview of the UN's mediation role and how it is institutionalised. The chapter illustrates the different forms UN mediation can take by describing three processes that come up throughout the book: the Great Lakes of Africa (which deals with the national and regional dimensions of the conflict in the DR Congo), Syria, and Yemen. This chapter is especially useful for readers who may not be familiar with the WPS Agenda in the UN system and/or UN mediation.
Chapter 5 explores the logic of UN mediation as an ‘art’, which emphasises the fluid, contingent nature of mediation and prioritises relationships with negotiating parties. This chapter examines two core practices: emotional labour and discretion. The first section describes how UN mediators engage in emotional regulation to facilitate negotiations. The creation of emotional ties relies upon empathy and bonding in informal settings, which creates masculinised spaces that women have trouble accessing. In this case, the practice of empathy can be exclusionary. The second section examines how discretion – the choices mediators make about how to implement their mandates – is a key practice in UN mediation. How a mediator exercises their discretion is tied to their sense of political judgement. As such, using discretion unwisely can affect others' perceptions of a UN mediator's judgement. As WPS, especially the participation of local women, is often framed as showing partiality to one party over others, mediators are reluctant to use their discretion to advance the WPS Agenda. Instead, it is framed as a risk to the mediator's reputation for good political judgement and impartiality.
Chapter 6 analyses narrative representations of local women, who feature throughout UN mediation texts as ‘the women’. This subject position is multifaceted and articulated differently according to different logics of UN mediation. Especially within the logic of UN mediation as a science, ‘the women’ are expected to play a legitimating, information-providing role to support the UN. This is an extractive, rather than an empowering, relationship. UN narratives position ‘the women’s’ labour as central to mediation effectiveness, but they also question their abilities and authenticity as representatives of their communities. Capacity-building training is one method that the UN, and particularly gender advisors, use to discipline women into appropriate forms of participation. The logic of UN mediation as an art has less use for 'the women' in its narratives and instead questions whether they are 'political enough' to be appropriate representatives in negotiations. In turn, local women resist and navigate the subject position of ‘the women’ through strategic essentialism, critique, or opting out.
Chapter 4 examines how the logic of UN mediation as a science produces and disseminates technical knowledge. It focuses on the practices of conflict analysis and the circulation of ‘best practices’ in implementing the WPS Agenda in Syria and Yemen. The beginning sections argue that conflict analysis produces instrumental knowledge about conflict by fixing actors and issues in a schema that is legible to interveners. It emerges from colonial schemes of knowledge production that diagnose the local sphere as lacking in capacity. As such, ‘gender-sensitive conflict analysis’ – a common tool for implementing the WPS Agenda in UN mediation – is subject to many of the same problems. The remainder of the chapter analyses the UN's institutional learning practices, arguing that its ‘best practice’ case studies of WPS in mediation depoliticise knowledge about gender, position the UN as the protagonist of women’s participation by erasing its own resistance to WPS, and diminish local women’s agency. Crucially, these best practice cases also elide ‘participation’ with ‘consultation’, undermining the WPS Agenda’s call for the meaningful participation of local women in UN mediation.
Chapter 8 draws together the major themes of the analysis and prompts further thinking on decolonial feminist modes of conflict resolution. This chapter concludes that the UN’s attempt to stay relevant through developing mediation expertise is counterproductive, and contends that it should instead adopt a solidaristic approach that foregrounds politics and aims to produce ‘knowledge encounters’ between different worlds. The bulk of the chapter discusses some principles for decolonial feminist approaches to mediation, which include encounters across different ontologies of peace, decolonising expertise, solidarity, and establishing relations of care and accountability.
Chapter 3 explores narrative struggles over defining UN mediation. It examines the discursive production of UN mediation as an institution, from its beginning as a series of ad hoc diplomatic engagements, to its institutionalisation in the 2000s. The chapter shows how we can observe over time the increasingly dominant construction of conflict as a technical rather than political challenge. The chapter traces these struggles by contrasting two key documents on the UN’s role in peace and security that appeared in 1992: UN Secretary-General Boutros-Ghali’s 'Agenda for Peace' and the UN Office of Legal Affairs' 'Handbook on the Peaceful Settlement of Disputes between States'. The differences between these documents illustrate the development of competing logics of UN mediation: that of mediation as an art, and that which sees it as a science. The chapter compares and contrasts the narrative features of these institutional logics, and discusses how they rely upon gendered-colonial assumptions about the nature of politics, violence, and agency that shape the incorporation of the WPS Agenda.
Chapter 7 explores how the logic of UN mediation as an art produces masculinities, particularly the subjects of ‘the mediator’, ‘conflict parties’, and ‘youths’. The first part examines the narrative representations of ‘the mediator’ as a political man who should show good judgement, have excellent interpersonal skills, and be spatially mobile. ‘The mediator’ has to be empathetic and good at listening – feminised traits that operate as capital for male mediators, but less so for women. In addition, the selection process for mediators draws from the masculinised professions of diplomacy and politics and the informal, male-dominated networks of diplomats at the UN. This chapter presents descriptive findings on the gender and career backgrounds of senior UN mediators. The second part of the chapter examines representations of local men. ‘Local men’ – often equivalent to the ‘conflict parties’ – function as the constitutive outside of ‘the mediator’. ‘Conflict parties’ are represented as emotional, traditional, and irrational, recalling colonial constructions of the ‘other’. Meanwhile, male ‘youths’ appear not as political agents, but as vectors of senseless violence. Thus, a colonial hierarchy of masculinities exists in which local men are subordinate to the mediator.
Previous studies have found some puzzling power anomalies related to testing the indirect effect of a mediator. The power for the indirect effect stagnates and even declines as the size of the indirect effect increases. Furthermore, the power for the indirect effect can be much higher than the power for the total effect in a model where there is no direct effect and therefore the indirect effect is of the same magnitude as the total effect. In the presence of direct effect, the power for the indirect effect is often much higher than the power for the direct effect even when these two effects are of the same magnitude. In this study, the limiting distributions of related statistics and their non-centralities are derived. Computer simulations are conducted to demonstrate their validity. These theoretical results are used to explain the observed anomalies.
We consider mediated effects of an exposure, X on an outcome, Y, via a mediator, M, under no unmeasured confounding assumptions in the setting where models for the conditional expectation of the mediator and outcome are partially linear. We propose G-estimators for the direct and indirect effects and demonstrate consistent asymptotic normality for indirect effects when models for the conditional means of M, or X and Y are correctly specified, and for direct effects, when models for the conditional means of Y, or X and M are correct. This marks an improvement, in this particular setting, over previous ‘triple’ robust methods, which do not assume partially linear mean models. Testing of the no-mediation hypothesis is inherently problematic due to the composite nature of the test (either X has no effect on M or M no effect on Y), leading to low power when both effect sizes are small. We use generalized methods of moments (GMM) results to construct a new score testing framework, which includes as special cases the no-mediation and the no-direct-effect hypotheses. The proposed tests rely on an orthogonal estimation strategy for estimating nuisance parameters. Simulations show that the GMM-based tests perform better in terms of power and small sample performance compared with traditional tests in the partially linear setting, with drastic improvement under model misspecification. New methods are illustrated in a mediation analysis of data from the COPERS trial, a randomized trial investigating the effect of a non-pharmacological intervention of patients suffering from chronic pain. An accompanying R package implementing these methods can be found at github.com/ohines/plmed.
This groundbreaking book offers a comprehensive analysis of the United Nations' efforts to incorporate the Women, Peace, and Security (WPS) agenda into its mediation practices. Based on extensive fieldwork and primary material, the book examines how gendered and racialised ideas about mediation as an 'art' or a 'science' have shaped the UN's approach to WPS. Senior mediators view mediation as an art of managing relationships with mostly male negotiators, meaning that including women can threaten parties' consent to the process. Meanwhile, experts and headquarters units see mediation as a science, resulting in the co-optation of gender expertise and local women to reinforce technical approaches to mediation. This has hindered the WPS agenda's goal of meaningful women's participation in peace processes. This book is an essential read for scholars, policymakers, and practitioners interested in gender, peace, and security.
Mediation analysis practices in social and personality psychology would benefit from the integration of practices from statistical mediation analysis, which is currently commonly implemented in social and personality psychology, and causal mediation analysis, which is not frequently used in psychology. In this chapter, I briefly describe each method on its own, then provide recommendations for how to integrate practices from each method to simultaneously evaluate statistical inference and causal inference as part of a single analysis. At the end of the chapter, I describe additional areas of recent development in mediation analysis that that social and personality psychologists should also consider adopting I order to improve the quality of inference in their mediation analysis: latent variables and longitudinal models. Ultimately, this chapter is meant to be a kind introduction to causal inference in the context of mediation with very practical recommendations for how one can implement these practices in one’s own research.
This chapter focuses on experimental designs, in which one or more factors are randomly assigned and manipulated. The first topic is statistical power or the likelihood of obtaining a significant result, which depends on several aspects of design. Second, the chapter examines the factors (independent variables) in a design, including the selection of levels of a factor and their treatment as fixed or random, and then dependent variables, including the selection of items, stimuli, or other aspects of a measure. Finally, artifacts and confounds that can affect the validity of results are addressed, as well as special designs for studying mediation. A concluding section raises the possibility that traditional conceptualizations of design – generally focusing on a single study and on the question of whether a manipulation has an effect – may be inadequate in the current world where multiple-study research programs are the more meaningful unit of evidence, and mediational questions are often of primary interest.
The validity of conclusions drawn from specific research studies must be evaluated in light of the purposes for which the research was undertaken. We distinguish four general types of research: description and point estimation, correlation and prediction, causal inference, and explanation. For causal and explanatory research, internal validity is critical – the extent to which a causal relationship can be inferred from the results of variation in the independent and dependent variables of an experiment. Random assignment is discussed as the key to avoiding threats to internal validity. Internal validity is distinguished from construct validity (the relationship between a theoretical construct and the methods used to operationalize that concept) and external validity (the extent to which the results of a research study can be generalized to other contexts). Construct validity is discussed in terms of multiple operations and discriminant and convergent validity assessment. External validity is discussed in terms of replicability, robustness, and relevance of specific research findings.