Winter wild oat [Avena sterilis ssp. ludoviciana (Durieu) Gillet & Magne; referred to as A. sterilis here] is one of the major weed species of the Avena genus, given its high competitive ability to infest cereal crops worldwide, with special concern in Spain. A nine-location field experiment was established across Spain where a total of 400 A. sterilis seeds per location were sowed in four replicates in autumn 2016 to monitor the emergence during two growing seasons in dryland conditions. The data were used to test the prediction ability of previously published thermal (TT) and hydrothermal time (HTT) models and to develop new models, if required. Overall, the average percentage of emergence was 30% during the first season and 21% during the second season. In both seasons, the main emergence flush occurred between November and February. According to the phenological stage, A. sterilis achieved the tillering earlier in southern sites, between November 25 and the end of December, compared with northern sites, where this stage was reached at the end of January. The newly developed model described the emergence with precision, using three cardinal temperatures to estimate the TT. The three cardinal points were established at −1.0, 5.8, and 18.0 C for base (Tb), optimum (To), and ceiling temperature (Tc), while the base water potential (Ψb) was established at −0.2 MPa for the HTT estimation. This study contributes to improving prediction of the emergence of A. sterilis and provides knowledge for decision support systems (DSS) for the control of this weed.

Weed control of paraquat can be erratic and may be attributable to differing species sensitivity and/or environmental factors for which minor guidance is available on commercial labels. Therefore, the objectives of this research were to quantify selectivity of paraquat across select weed species and the influence of environmental factors. Experiments were performed under controlled conditions in the greenhouse and growth chamber. Compared with purple deadnettle (dose necessary to reduce shoot biomass by 50% = 39 g ai ha−1), waterhemp, Palmer amaranth, giant ragweed, and horseweed were 4.9, 3.3, 1.9, and 1.3 times more sensitive to paraquat, respectively. The injury progression rate over 3 d after treatment (DAT) was a more accurate predictor of final efficacy at 14 DAT than the lag phase until symptoms first appeared. For example, at the 17.5 g ha−1 dose, the injury rate of waterhemp and Palmer amaranth was, on average, 3.6 times greater than that of horseweed and purple deadnettle. The influence of various environmental factors on paraquat efficacy was weed specific. Applications made at sunrise improved control of purple deadnettle over applications at solar noon or sunset. Lower light intensities (200 or 600 μmol m−2 s−1) surrounding the time of application improved control of waterhemp and horseweed more than 1,000 μmol m−2 s−1. Day/night temperatures of 27/16 C improved horseweed and purple deadnettle control compared with day/night temperatures of 18/13 C. Though control was positively associated with injury rates in the application time of day and temperature experiments, a negative relationship was observed for waterhemp in the light-intensity experiment. Thus, although there are conditions that enhance paraquat efficacy, the specific target species must also be considered. These results advocate paraquat dose recommendations, currently based on weed height, be expanded to address sensitivity differences among weeds. Moreover, these findings contrast with paraquat labels stating temperatures of 13 C or lower do not reduce paraquat efficacy.

North African knapweed (Centaurea diluta Aiton) is an annual weed that is widespread in southern Spain and is of increasing concern in dryland cropping systems. Despite its expanding range in Spain, there is limited information on the emergence timing and pattern of this species, knowledge of which is critical for developing more timely and effective management strategies. Therefore, there is a need to develop simple and reliable models to predict the timing and emergence of this annual weed under dryland conditions. A multi-location field experiment was established across Spain in 2016 to 2017 to assess the emergence of C. diluta. At each of 11 locations, seeds were sown in the fall, and emergence was recorded. Overall emergence averaged 39% in the first year across all sites and 11% in the second year. In both years, the main emergence flush occurred at the beginning of the growing season. A three-parameter Weibull function best described seedling emergence of C. diluta. Emergence models were developed based on thermal time (TT) and hydrothermal time (HTT) and showed high predictability, as evidenced by root mean-square error prediction values of 10.8 and 10.7, respectively. Three cardinal points were established for TT and HHT at 0.5, 10, and 35 C for base, optimal, and ceiling temperatures, respectively, while base water potential was estimated at −0.5 MPa.

Timely results from whole-plant, herbicide-resistant weed screenings are crucial to heighten grower awareness. However, the high degree of physiological dormancy of giant ragweed (Ambrosia trifida L.) seed exacerbates this process. The most effective methods for alleviating dormancy, to date, are either labor-intensive (embryo excision) or require several weeks (soil stratification). This research describes a conditioning process involving clipping and aeration of seed in water that is highly effective at alleviating dormancy and requires less skill and time compared with previous techniques. Ambrosia trifida seeds were collected over 2 yr at two different collection timings (September 25, “early”; October 25, “late”), subjected to various treatments intended to release dormancy, and evaluated for emergence over 18 d in the greenhouse. The use of germination-promoting chemicals (ethephon, gibberellic acid, and thiourea) generally provided no increase in emergence compared with water and occasionally produced seedlings with abnormal growth unsuitable for further experimentation. Conditioning yielded between 30% and 33% emergence for both early and late collections of seeds with no afterripening period compared with 0% emergence for seeds imbibed in water. Following an 8-wk period of dry storage at 4 C, conditioning yielded nearly 80% emergence for both collection timings, while emergence of seeds imbibed in water was 10% and 27% for early and late collections, respectively. Soil stratification in moist soil for 8 wk at 4 C was the second most effective treatment, yielding 46% to 49% emergence across both collections. Parameters of the Weibull function further indicated the conditioning treatment had the fastest rate of emergence and shortest lag phase between planting and first emergence. Methods to germinate A. trifida without an afterripening period have previously been unsuccessful. Therefore, the seed-conditioning method outlined in this work will be useful in expediting the confirmation of herbicide-resistant A. trifida incidences.

Seed germination, one aspect of fitness, of chlorsulfuron-resistant (R) and -susceptible (S) kochia biotypes collected in North Dakota and Kansas was compared at 8, 18, and 28 C. Cumulative germination, characterized for each biotype using a Weibull function, was different at 8 and 18 C but not at 28 C. The Kansas R biotype reached 50% and maximum germination 70 and 300 h before Kansas S biotype at 8 C and 12 and 100 h before the S biotype at 18 C, respectively. The North Dakota R biotype reached 50% and maximum germination 12 and 100 h before the North Dakota S biotype at 8 C, respectively, and they were not different at 18 C. The resistance trait affects the cumulative germination process of kochia and may affect resistant-weed management strategies implemented early in the growing season when temperatures are lowest.

Early prediction of the final size of any epidemic and in particular for Zika disease outbreaks can be useful for health authorities in order to plan the response to the outbreak. The Richards model is often been used to estimate epidemiological parameters for arboviral diseases based on the reported cumulative cases in single- and multi-wave outbreaks. However, other non-linear models can also fit the data as well. Typically, one follows the so called post selection estimation procedure, i.e., selects the best fitting model out of the set of candidate models and ignores the model uncertainty in both estimation and inference since these procedures are based on a single model. In this paper we focus on the estimation of the final size and the turning point of the epidemic and conduct a real-time prediction for the final size of the outbreak using several non-linear models in which these parameters are estimated via model averaging. The proposed method is applied to Zika outbreak data in four cities from Colombia, during the outbreak ocurred in 2015–2016.

The quest for high particle energies of modern super conducting lepton and hadron storage rings assumes a strong minimisation of the non-magnetic interconnection zones when compared to the total magnetic length of the main quadrupoles and the dipoles. The ratio of non-magnetic to magnetic zones in the LHC is close to 3%. Such a low percentage leads to a very compact design of systems and sub-systems situated in the interconnections, like the mechanical compensation system, composed of the bellows expansion joints, that have to compensate for the thermal contraction of the magnets. Given the complexity of the LHC interconnections, the requirements concerning their reliability were considerably increased since the availability of the collider for physics cannot be compromised. The failure modes taken into account in the present analysis are grouped into 3 categories: material failures, structural stability failures and fatigue failures. Optimisation of stainless steel for cryogenic applications has been carried out. Also, a concept of reliability oriented parametric optimisation of the LHC interconnections is presented.