Understanding the irregular variation of the solar cycle is crucial due to its significant impact on global climates and the heliosphere. Since the polar magnetic field determines the amplitude of the next solar cycle, variations in the polar field can lead to fluctuations in the solar cycle. We have explored the variability of the solar cycle at different levels of dynamo supercriticality. We observe that the variability depends on the dynamo operation regime, with the near-critical regime exhibiting more variability than the supercritical regime. Furthermore, we have explored the effects of the irregular BMR properties (emergence rate, latitude, tilt, and flux) on the polar field and the solar cycle. We find that they all produce considerable variation in the solar cycle; however, the variation due to the tilt scatter is the largest.

The study’s focus on the modulation of geomagnetism by low latitude solar magnetically activity, including coronal mass ejections (CMEs), solar flares, and solar energetic particles (SEPs). It mentions the Babcock–Leighton (B-L) dynamo model used to predict sunspot numbers in Solar Cycle 25 (SC25) and highlights the challenges in understanding aspects such as the regeneration of the poloidal field and the occurrence of magnetic regions, active longitudes, and coronal holes. The abstract introduces the study’s concentration on the activity of polar regions using chromosphere jets activity proxies and other parameters like polar faculae density and cool ejection events. It also mentions the observation of chromospheric prolateness during the minimum solar activity periods.

Solar activity shows an 11-year (quasi)periodicity with a pronounced, but limited variability of the cycle amplitudes. The properties of active region (AR) emergence play an important role in the modulation of solar cycles and are our central concern in building a model for predicting future cycle(s) in the framework of the Babcock–Leighton (BL)-type dynamo. The emergence of ARs has the property that strong cycles tend to have higher mean latitudes and lower tilt angle coefficients. Their non-linear feedbacks on the solar cycle are referred to as latitudinal quenching and tilt quenching, respectively. Meanwhile, the stochastic properties of AR emergence, e.g., rogue ARs, limit the scope of the solar cycle prediction. For physics-based prediction models of the solar cycle, we suggest that uncertainties in both the observed magnetograms assimilated as the initial field and the properties of the AR emergence should be taken into account.

We present a study of the evolution of two types of coronal holes (CHs) in the solar minimum of 24/25, which was preceded by a prolonged minimum of 23/24 and a weak 24 solar cycle. The goal of the study is to clarify whether the behavior of CHs during this period is also unusual? The study is based on the material of observations obtained by SDO/AIA/193. The Heliophysics Events Knowledgebase was used to localize the CHs and calculate their areas. Analysis of the evolution of the areas of polar and non-polar CHs in solar minimum 24/25 revealed a number of features. The hemispheric asymmetry is evident both in solar activity indices and in the localization of maxima of polar and non-polar CH areas. The hemispheric area imbalance is minimal for polar CHs and pronounced in the regions of non-polar CHs and sunspots. This is consistent with the general concept of polar CHs as the main source of the Sun’s dipole magnetic field. The areas of polar CHs significantly exceed the areas of non-polar CHs and make a significant contribution to the total area of all CHs in the solar disk. It is concluded that the dynamics of polar and nonpolar CHs suggests that the 24/25 minimum is rather close to earlier minima than to the 23/24 minimum.

Babcock–Leighton process, in which the poloidal field is generated through the decay and dispersal of tilted bipolar magnetic regions (BMRs), is observed to be the major process behind the generating poloidal field in the Sun. Based on this process, the Babcock–Leighton dynamo models have been a promising tool for explaining various aspects of solar and stellar magnetic cycles. In recent years, in the toroidal to poloidal part of this dynamo loop, various nonlinear mechanisms, namely the flux loss through the magnetic buoyancy in the formation of BMRs, latitude quenching, tilt quenching, and inflows around BMRs, have been identified. While these nonlinearities tend to produce a stable magnetic cycle, the irregular properties of BMR, mainly the scatter around Joy’s law tilt, make a considerable variation in the solar cycle, including grand minima and maxima. After reviewing recent developments in these topics, I end the presentation by discussing the recent progress in making the early prediction of the solar cycle.

AutoTAB is a state-of-the-art, fully automatic algorithm that tracks the Bipolar Magnetic Regions (BMRs) in magnetogram observations. AutoTAB employs identified BMR regions from Line-of-Sight magnetograms from MDI and HMI (1996–2022) to track the BMRs through their evolution on the nearside of the Sun. AutoTAB enables us to create a comprehensive and unique catalog of tracked information of 9232 BMRs in the mentioned time period. This dataset is used to study the collective statistical properties of BMRs and particularly to identify the correct theory for the BMR formation. Here, we discuss the algorithm’s functionality and the initial findings obtained from the AutoTAB BMRs catalog.

An extended catalog of long-periodic terms of the Sun tide-generating potential (STGP ver.2) is released. It contains 2.5 times of such terms than in the first version of the STGP catalog (Cionco et al. 2023). The analysis of the new data is done in order to re-examine the existence of tidal forces of ≈ 11.0-yr and ≈ 22.0-yr period able to excite the observed solar-activity cycles. In several recent studies, such tidal forcings are claimed to be a result of certain combinations of Venus, Earth and Jupiter mean motions with the multipliers (6, −10, 4) and (3, −5, 2), respectively. So, in this contribution, we specifically look for the periodic terms related to these combinations. As a result of these additional investigation we do not confirm any noticeable tidal forcing factors of ≈ 11.0-yr nor ≈ 22.0-yr period in the extended STGP spectrum either.

Using tree-ring radiocarbon 14C data, solar cycles are now reconstructed for the last millennium, more than doubling the previously known statistic of direct solar observations and giving a new opportunity to validate basic empirical rules connecting solar cycle lengths, strengths and intensities. This includes the Waldmeier rule relating the cycle’s strength to the length of its ascending phase, and the Gnevyshev-Ohl rule suggesting that cycles are paired so that the intensity of an odd solar cycle is higher than that of the preceding even cycle. Using the extended solar-cycle statistic, we found that the Waldmeier rule remains robust for the well-defined solar cycles implying that it is an intrinsic feature of the solar cycle. However, the validity of the Gnevyshev-Ohl rule is not confirmed at any reasonable statistical level, indicating that either the insufficient accuracy of the reconstructed solar cycles or that this rule is not a robust feature.

Geomagnetic storms can be modeled as stochastic processes with log-normal probability distribution function over their minimum Dst index value measured during the main phase of each event. Considering a time series of geomagnetic storm events between 1957 and 2019 we have analyzed the probability of occurrence of small, moderate, strong and extreme events. The data were separated according to solar cycle (SC) and solar cycle phases and fitted through maximum likelihood method in order to compare rates of occurrence of the last Solar Cycle (SC24) with previous ones. Our results show that for Dst < – 100 nT events in SC24 are similar to those in SC20, obtaining ⁓42 vs 21 median rate storms per cycle with 95% confidence intervals using Bootstrap Method. As SC24 has been the least active solar cycle in over 200 years, we conclude that this method tends to overestimate geomagnetic storms occurrence rates even for small events.

The sunspot cycle is quite variable in duration and amplitude, yet in the long term, it seems to return to solar minimum on schedule, as if guided by a clock with an average period of close to 11.05 years for the sunspot number cycle and 22.1 years for the magnetic cycle. This paper provides a brief review of the sunspot number cycle since 1750, discusses some of the processes controlling the solar dynamo, and provides clues that may add to our understanding of what controls the cadence of the solar clock.

In this study, using the data of Istanbul University Observatory, general features of Solar Cycle 24 are presented.

Forecasting the solar activity is of great importance not only for its effect on the climate of the Earth but also on the telecommunications, power lines, space missions and satellite safety. In the present work, machine learning using Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) called Nonlinear Autoregressive Network (NAR) with Exogenous Inputs (NARX) have been applied for the prediction of future evolution of the present sunspot cycle. NARX network is able to combine the performance of ANN algorithm with nonlinear autoregressive method to handle problems such as finding dependencies among solar indices and prediction of solar cycle evolution.

The meteoroid ablation is an important source of upper atmosphere metal atoms. Many meteoroids ablate between 70 - 110 km and form an ionized plasma trail which is detected by radar technique. It is also known that the ablation heights of the meteors depend on various factors such as velocity, mass, and its composition, etc. The meteor ablation height provides new opportunities to gather information on the neutral atmosphere in the Mesosphere and Lower Thermosphere (MLT) region. In this study, we analysed the 11 years of meteor radar data (2005 - 2015), i.e., descending phase of solar cycle 23, and ascending phase of solar cycle 24, detected by all sky meteor radar at Thumba. We found that the solar activity influences the meteor ablation height, here, during the solar maxima meteor peak detection height rise to few hundred meters higher altitudes. We also examined the long term pattern of the meteor count rate which shows a decreasing trend and has good agreement with the sunspot number (SSN).

Hemispheric asymmetry is one of the significant parameters related to the action of solar dynamo. Comparison of hemispheric activities during various phases are found out for solar cycles 12 to 23. Asymmetry of solar activity shows extremum values during the cycles 14 and 19. Lowest and highest levels of north-south asymmetry are mainly observed during minimum and maximum phases respectively of solar cycles. A change of phase is found to be existing between the asymmetries at solar maxima and the whole cycle, after solar cycle 15 and 18. Also, for cycles 17-19, the behaviour of the asymmetry is observed to be peculiar and different from that of the other cycles. Periodic behaviour of north-south asymmetry mainly occurs in 8.8 years and noticed very high during the cycles 18-22.

Sunspots are active regions on the surface of the Sun having strong magnetic fields. Activity level of the Sun shows long-time scale phenomena known as grand episodes-Grand maxima and Grand minima. Present study examines grand episodes shown by sunspot numbers (1090-2017), using methods of wavelet transform and sinusoidal regression. Time interval analysed includes two grand maxima and four grand minima. Interval in between grand episodes are regular oscillations. Phase changes found from periodicity analysis clearly show the presence of upcoming grand episodes. The forthcoming grand episodes are suggested to be two grand minima which are likely to occur between the years 2100-2160 and 2220-2300.

We investigated the prominence eruptions and disappearances observed with the Nobeyama Radioheliograph during over 20 years for studying the anomaly of the recent solar cycle. Although the sunspot number of Cycle 24 is smaller than the previous one dramatically, the occurrence rate, size and radial velocity of the prominence activities are not changed significantly. We also found that the occurrence of the prominence activities in the northern hemisphere is normal from the duration of the cycle and the migration of the producing region of the prominence activities. On the other hand, the migration in the southern hemisphere significantly differs from that in the northern hemisphere and the previous cycles. Our results suggest that the anomalies of the global magnetic field distribution started at the solar maximum of Cycle 23.