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Nonlinear and stochastic mechanisms of the solar cycle and their implications for the cycle prediction

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  23 December 2024

Jie Jiang Open the ORCID record for Jie Jiang [Opens in a new window]
Jie Jiang*
Affiliation:
School of Space and Environment, Beihang University, Beijing, People’s Republic of China Key Laboratory of Space Environment Monitoring and Information Processing, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Beijing, China
*
email: [email protected]
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Abstract

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Solar activity shows an 11-year (quasi)periodicity with a pronounced, but limited variability of the cycle amplitudes. The properties of active region (AR) emergence play an important role in the modulation of solar cycles and are our central concern in building a model for predicting future cycle(s) in the framework of the Babcock–Leighton (BL)-type dynamo. The emergence of ARs has the property that strong cycles tend to have higher mean latitudes and lower tilt angle coefficients. Their non-linear feedbacks on the solar cycle are referred to as latitudinal quenching and tilt quenching, respectively. Meanwhile, the stochastic properties of AR emergence, e.g., rogue ARs, limit the scope of the solar cycle prediction. For physics-based prediction models of the solar cycle, we suggest that uncertainties in both the observed magnetograms assimilated as the initial field and the properties of the AR emergence should be taken into account.

Keywords

Solar cycleSolar dynamoCycle predictionStochastic noise
Type
Contributed Paper
Information
Proceedings of the International Astronomical Union , Volume 19 , Symposium S365: Dynamics of Solar and Stellar Convection Zones and Atmospheres , December 2023 , pp. 98 - 106
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Copyright
© The Author(s), 2024. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of International Astronomical Union

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